Intrinsic value of DAVIDsTEA - DTEA

Previous Close

$4.30

  Intrinsic Value

$6.55

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+52%

  Value-price divergence*

-9%

Previous close

$4.30

 
Intrinsic value

$6.55

 
Up/down potential

+52%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-9%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DTEA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  19.40
  9.10
  8.69
  8.32
  7.99
  7.69
  7.42
  7.18
  6.96
  6.76
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.62
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.33
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
Revenue, $m
  160
  175
  190
  206
  222
  239
  257
  275
  294
  314
  335
  356
  379
  402
  427
  452
  478
  506
  535
  565
  596
  629
  663
  699
  736
  775
  817
  860
  905
  952
  1,001
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  159
  173
  188
  203
  218
  234
  251
  269
  287
  306
  325
  346
  367
  389
  413
  437
  462
  488
  515
  544
  574
  605
  638
  672
  708
  745
  785
  826
  869
  914
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  165
  159
  173
  188
  203
  218
  234
  251
  269
  287
  306
  325
  346
  367
  389
  413
  437
  462
  488
  515
  544
  574
  605
  638
  672
  708
  745
  785
  826
  869
  914
Operating income, $m
  -5
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
EBITDA, $m
  2
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
  101
  107
  112
  118
  124
  131
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Earnings before tax, $m
  -4
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  57
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
Tax expense, $m
  -1
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Net income, $m
  -3
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  48
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  129
  88
  96
  104
  112
  121
  130
  139
  149
  159
  170
  180
  192
  204
  216
  229
  242
  256
  271
  286
  302
  318
  336
  354
  373
  393
  413
  435
  458
  482
  507
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  81
  88
  96
  104
  112
  121
  130
  139
  149
  159
  170
  180
  192
  204
  216
  229
  242
  256
  271
  286
  302
  318
  336
  354
  373
  393
  413
  435
  458
  482
  507
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.975
  1.989
  1.979
  1.981
  1.982
  1.975
  1.977
  1.978
  1.973
  1.975
  1.971
  1.978
  1.974
  1.971
  1.977
  1.974
  1.975
  1.977
  1.974
  1.976
  1.974
  1.978
  1.973
  1.975
  1.973
  1.972
  1.978
  1.977
  1.976
  1.975
  1.974
Average production assets, $m
  39
  42
  46
  50
  53
  58
  62
  66
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  103
  109
  115
  122
  129
  136
  144
  152
  160
  168
  177
  187
  197
  207
  218
  229
  241
Working capital, $m
  58
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
Total debt, $m
  0
  3
  6
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  25
  29
  33
  37
  41
  45
  50
  55
  60
  65
  70
  76
  82
  88
  94
  101
  108
  115
  123
  131
  139
  148
  158
Total liabilities, $m
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
  188
Total equity, $m
  99
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  88
  94
  100
  107
  114
  121
  128
  136
  144
  153
  161
  171
  180
  190
  201
  211
  223
  235
  247
  260
  274
  289
  304
  319
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  129
  89
  97
  105
  113
  121
  130
  140
  149
  159
  170
  181
  192
  203
  216
  229
  243
  256
  271
  286
  302
  319
  335
  354
  373
  392
  413
  435
  458
  482
  507
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.050
  0.090
  0.130
  0.160
  0.190
  0.220
  0.250
  0.270
  0.290
  0.310
  0.320
  0.340
  0.350
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -3
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
Funds from operations, $m
  1
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  73
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  8
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
New CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -16
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
Free cash flow, $m
  -8
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -6
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  0
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  48
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  53
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  51
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  6
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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DAVIDsTEA Inc. is engaged in the retail and online sale of tea, tea accessories, and food and beverages in Canada and in the United States. The Company's segments include Canada and the U.S. The Company is a branded retailer of specialty tea, offering approximately 150 loose-leaf teas, pre-packaged teas, tea sachets and tea-related gifts, accessories, and food and beverages primarily through approximately 190 DAVIDsTEA stores, which are operated by the Company, and its Website, davidstea.com. Additionally, the Company offers on-the-go tea beverages in its retail stores. The Company's tea accessories include tea mugs, travel mugs, teacup sets, teapots, tea makers, kettles, infusers, filters, frothers, tins and spoons. The Company offers beverages range from the standard hot or iced tea to its Tea Lattes. The Company's different flavors of loose-leaf tea span eight tea categories: white, green, oolong, black, pu'erh, mate, rooibos and herbal tea.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  DAVIDsTEA (DTEA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -36.5
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -13.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 19.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 23.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 21.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -33.5%
Return On Total Capital -3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.1%
Return On Equity -3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -113.9%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.7%
EBITDA Margin 1.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.6%
Operating Margin -3.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -2.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.6%
Net Profit Margin -1.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.2%
Effective Tax Rate 25%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

DTEA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DTEA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $160 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by DAVIDsTEA. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of DAVIDsTEA. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DTEA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DTEA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of DAVIDsTEA, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of DAVIDsTEA.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DTEA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DTEA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for DAVIDsTEA.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for DAVIDsTEA. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DTEA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DTEA are equal to 24.1%.

Life of production assets of 5.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in DAVIDsTEA operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DTEA is equal to 6.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $99 million for DAVIDsTEA - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25.829 million for DAVIDsTEA is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of DAVIDsTEA at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ DavidsTea reports 2Q loss   [Sep-07-17 09:31PM  Associated Press]
▶ DavidsTea reports 1Q loss   [Jun-07-17 04:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ What Makes DAVIDsTEA Inc. (DTEA) a Strong Sell?   [May-11-17 08:35AM  Zacks]
▶ DavidsTea posts 4Q profit   [04:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ LD Micro Index Reconstitution as of February 1, 2017   [Feb-01-17 09:45AM  Accesswire]
▶ How FRP Holdings Inc (FRPH) Stacks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-19-16 06:00AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Aquinox Pharmaceuticals Inc (AQXP) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-18-16 10:13PM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Stocks to Watch: Restoration Hardware, Smucker, Francesca's, David's Tea   [Jun-09-16 09:29AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ DAVIDsTEA Inc. Partners With ME to WE to Give Clean Water   [Feb-16-16 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 5 Hated Earnings Stocks You Should Love   [Dec-08  01:32PM  at TheStreet]
▶ Stock Indexes Jump; Samsung To Pay Apple $548 Million   [Dec-04  01:30PM  at Investor's Business Daily]
▶ 4 Big-Volume Stocks to Trade for Big Gains   [08:41AM  at TheStreet]
▶ Investor Sentiment For Davids Tea Inc (DTEA) Is Sinking Steeply   [Nov-22  04:08PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of DTEA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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