Intrinsic value of Diversicare Healthcare Services - DVCR

Previous Close

$9.71

  Intrinsic Value

$71.26

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+634%

Previous close

$9.71

 
Intrinsic value

$71.26

 
Up/down potential

+634%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of DVCR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.79
  50.50
  45.95
  41.86
  38.17
  34.85
  31.87
  29.18
  26.76
  24.59
  22.63
  20.86
  19.28
  17.85
  16.57
  15.41
  14.37
  13.43
  12.59
  11.83
  11.15
  10.53
  9.98
  9.48
  9.03
  8.63
  8.27
  7.94
  7.65
  7.38
  7.14
Revenue, $m
  426
  641
  936
  1,327
  1,834
  2,473
  3,261
  4,213
  5,341
  6,654
  8,159
  9,862
  11,763
  13,863
  16,159
  18,649
  21,328
  24,193
  27,238
  30,461
  33,856
  37,421
  41,156
  45,057
  49,127
  53,367
  57,778
  62,366
  67,134
  72,089
  77,239
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  628
  916
  1,300
  1,796
  2,421
  3,193
  4,125
  5,228
  6,514
  7,988
  9,655
  11,516
  13,571
  15,820
  18,257
  20,880
  23,685
  26,666
  29,821
  33,145
  36,636
  40,291
  44,111
  48,096
  52,246
  56,565
  61,056
  65,724
  70,575
  75,617
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  426
  628
  916
  1,300
  1,796
  2,421
  3,193
  4,125
  5,228
  6,514
  7,988
  9,655
  11,516
  13,571
  15,820
  18,257
  20,880
  23,685
  26,666
  29,821
  33,145
  36,636
  40,291
  44,111
  48,096
  52,246
  56,565
  61,056
  65,724
  70,575
  75,617
Operating income, $m
  0
  13
  20
  28
  39
  52
  68
  88
  112
  140
  171
  207
  247
  291
  339
  392
  448
  508
  572
  640
  711
  786
  864
  946
  1,032
  1,121
  1,213
  1,310
  1,410
  1,514
  1,622
EBITDA, $m
  8
  25
  37
  53
  73
  98
  130
  167
  212
  264
  324
  392
  467
  551
  642
  741
  847
  961
  1,082
  1,210
  1,345
  1,487
  1,635
  1,790
  1,952
  2,120
  2,296
  2,478
  2,668
  2,864
  3,069
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  4
  8
  14
  21
  31
  43
  58
  77
  98
  123
  152
  185
  221
  261
  305
  353
  404
  459
  517
  579
  644
  712
  784
  859
  937
  1,018
  1,102
  1,190
  1,281
  1,376
Earnings before tax, $m
  -3
  9
  11
  14
  17
  21
  25
  30
  36
  42
  48
  55
  62
  70
  78
  86
  95
  104
  113
  122
  132
  142
  152
  162
  173
  184
  196
  207
  220
  232
  246
Tax expense, $m
  -1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  30
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
Net income, $m
  -2
  7
  8
  10
  13
  15
  18
  22
  26
  30
  35
  40
  45
  51
  57
  63
  69
  76
  82
  89
  96
  103
  111
  118
  126
  134
  143
  151
  160
  170
  179

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  163
  239
  349
  495
  685
  923
  1,217
  1,573
  1,994
  2,484
  3,046
  3,681
  4,391
  5,175
  6,032
  6,961
  7,961
  9,031
  10,167
  11,370
  12,637
  13,968
  15,362
  16,819
  18,338
  19,920
  21,567
  23,279
  25,059
  26,909
  28,831
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  159
  239
  349
  495
  685
  923
  1,217
  1,573
  1,994
  2,484
  3,046
  3,681
  4,391
  5,175
  6,032
  6,961
  7,961
  9,031
  10,167
  11,370
  12,637
  13,968
  15,362
  16,819
  18,338
  19,920
  21,567
  23,279
  25,059
  26,909
  28,831
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.679
  2.682
  2.682
  2.681
  2.677
  2.679
  2.680
  2.678
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
  2.679
Average production assets, $m
  63
  95
  138
  196
  271
  366
  483
  624
  790
  985
  1,208
  1,460
  1,741
  2,052
  2,392
  2,760
  3,157
  3,581
  4,031
  4,508
  5,011
  5,538
  6,091
  6,668
  7,271
  7,898
  8,551
  9,230
  9,936
  10,669
  11,431
Working capital, $m
  21
  38
  55
  78
  108
  146
  192
  249
  315
  393
  481
  582
  694
  818
  953
  1,100
  1,258
  1,427
  1,607
  1,797
  1,997
  2,208
  2,428
  2,658
  2,899
  3,149
  3,409
  3,680
  3,961
  4,253
  4,557
Total debt, $m
  80
  143
  242
  374
  544
  759
  1,024
  1,343
  1,722
  2,163
  2,669
  3,241
  3,880
  4,585
  5,357
  6,193
  7,093
  8,056
  9,079
  10,161
  11,302
  12,500
  13,754
  15,065
  16,432
  17,856
  19,338
  20,880
  22,481
  24,146
  25,876
Total liabilities, $m
  152
  215
  314
  446
  616
  831
  1,096
  1,415
  1,794
  2,235
  2,741
  3,313
  3,952
  4,657
  5,429
  6,265
  7,165
  8,128
  9,151
  10,233
  11,374
  12,572
  13,826
  15,137
  16,504
  17,928
  19,410
  20,952
  22,553
  24,218
  25,948
Total equity, $m
  11
  24
  35
  50
  68
  92
  122
  157
  199
  248
  305
  368
  439
  517
  603
  696
  796
  903
  1,017
  1,137
  1,264
  1,397
  1,536
  1,682
  1,834
  1,992
  2,157
  2,328
  2,506
  2,691
  2,883
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  163
  239
  349
  496
  684
  923
  1,218
  1,572
  1,993
  2,483
  3,046
  3,681
  4,391
  5,174
  6,032
  6,961
  7,961
  9,031
  10,168
  11,370
  12,638
  13,969
  15,362
  16,819
  18,338
  19,920
  21,567
  23,280
  25,059
  26,909
  28,831
Debt-to-equity ratio
  7.273
  5.990
  6.940
  7.550
  7.950
  8.220
  8.410
  8.540
  8.640
  8.710
  8.760
  8.800
  8.840
  8.860
  8.880
  8.900
  8.910
  8.920
  8.930
  8.940
  8.940
  8.950
  8.950
  8.960
  8.960
  8.960
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
  8.980
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.044
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -2
  7
  8
  10
  13
  15
  18
  22
  26
  30
  35
  40
  45
  51
  57
  63
  69
  76
  82
  89
  96
  103
  111
  118
  126
  134
  143
  151
  160
  170
  179
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  12
  18
  25
  34
  46
  61
  79
  100
  125
  153
  185
  220
  260
  303
  349
  400
  453
  510
  571
  634
  701
  771
  844
  920
  1,000
  1,082
  1,168
  1,258
  1,351
  1,447
Funds from operations, $m
  -23
  19
  26
  35
  47
  62
  80
  101
  126
  155
  188
  225
  266
  311
  360
  412
  469
  529
  593
  660
  730
  804
  882
  963
  1,047
  1,134
  1,225
  1,320
  1,418
  1,520
  1,626
Change in working capital, $m
  -17
  13
  17
  23
  30
  38
  47
  56
  67
  77
  89
  100
  112
  124
  135
  147
  158
  169
  180
  190
  200
  210
  220
  230
  240
  250
  260
  271
  281
  292
  304
Cash from operations, $m
  -6
  6
  9
  12
  17
  24
  33
  45
  60
  78
  99
  124
  154
  187
  224
  265
  311
  360
  413
  470
  530
  594
  662
  732
  807
  884
  965
  1,049
  1,137
  1,228
  1,323
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -8
  -12
  -18
  -25
  -34
  -46
  -61
  -79
  -100
  -125
  -153
  -185
  -220
  -260
  -303
  -349
  -400
  -453
  -510
  -571
  -634
  -701
  -771
  -844
  -920
  -1,000
  -1,082
  -1,168
  -1,258
  -1,351
New CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -32
  -44
  -58
  -75
  -95
  -117
  -141
  -167
  -194
  -223
  -252
  -281
  -311
  -340
  -369
  -397
  -424
  -451
  -477
  -502
  -528
  -553
  -577
  -602
  -627
  -653
  -679
  -706
  -733
  -762
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -10
  -40
  -56
  -76
  -100
  -129
  -163
  -202
  -246
  -294
  -348
  -405
  -466
  -531
  -600
  -672
  -746
  -824
  -904
  -987
  -1,073
  -1,162
  -1,254
  -1,348
  -1,446
  -1,547
  -1,653
  -1,761
  -1,874
  -1,991
  -2,113
Free cash flow, $m
  -16
  -34
  -47
  -63
  -83
  -105
  -130
  -157
  -186
  -217
  -248
  -280
  -312
  -344
  -375
  -406
  -435
  -464
  -491
  -517
  -543
  -568
  -592
  -616
  -640
  -664
  -688
  -712
  -737
  -763
  -790
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  19
  67
  99
  132
  170
  215
  265
  320
  379
  441
  506
  572
  639
  705
  771
  836
  900
  962
  1,023
  1,082
  1,141
  1,198
  1,254
  1,311
  1,367
  1,424
  1,482
  1,541
  1,602
  1,665
  1,730
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  6
  3
  4
  6
  9
  11
  14
  16
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  30
  31
  31
  31
  31
  31
  30
  29
  27
  26
  24
  22
  20
  18
  15
  13
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  16
  73
  102
  136
  176
  224
  276
  334
  395
  460
  527
  595
  664
  732
  800
  866
  931
  993
  1,054
  1,113
  1,172
  1,228
  1,283
  1,338
  1,393
  1,448
  1,504
  1,561
  1,620
  1,680
  1,743
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  40
  55
  72
  94
  118
  146
  176
  209
  243
  279
  315
  352
  388
  425
  461
  496
  530
  563
  596
  628
  660
  691
  722
  753
  784
  816
  849
  882
  917
  953
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  2
  -13
  -11
  -15
  -19
  -24
  -29
  -36
  -42
  -49
  -56
  -64
  -71
  -78
  -86
  -93
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -165
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -192
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  27
  44
  58
  75
  94
  116
  141
  167
  194
  222
  251
  281
  310
  339
  368
  396
  423
  450
  476
  501
  527
  551
  576
  601
  626
  651
  677
  704
  732
  760
Discount rate, %
 
  11.90
  12.50
  13.12
  13.78
  14.46
  15.19
  15.95
  16.74
  17.58
  18.46
  19.38
  20.35
  21.37
  22.44
  23.56
  24.74
  25.98
  27.28
  28.64
  30.07
  31.57
  33.15
  34.81
  36.55
  38.38
  40.30
  42.31
  44.43
  46.65
  48.98
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  24
  34
  40
  45
  48
  50
  50
  48
  45
  41
  36
  30
  25
  20
  15
  12
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  91.1
  89.5
  87.6
  85.7
  83.9
  82.3
  80.7
  79.3
  78.1
  77.0
  76.0
  75.1
  74.3
  73.6
  73.0
  72.4
  72.0
  71.5
  71.2
  70.8
  70.6
  70.3
  70.1
  69.9
  69.8
  69.6
  69.5
  69.4
  69.4
  69.3

Diversicare Healthcare Services, Inc. provides post-acute care services to nursing center patients and residents in approximately nine states, primarily in the Southeast and the Southwest United States. The Company's post-acute care services to patients and residents include skilled nursing, ancillary healthcare services and assisted living. In addition to the nursing, personal care and social services that are provided in long-term care centers, the Company offers a range of rehabilitative, respiratory and other ancillary services. The Company operates 77 skilled nursing and long-term care facilities containing 8,556 skilled nursing beds. The Company's nursing centers range in size from 48 to 320 licensed nursing beds. The nursing centers provide nursing healthcare services, including nutrition services, recreational therapy, social services and laundry services. The Company operates in Alabama, Florida, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee and Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Diversicare Healthcare Services (DVCR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -30.9
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 5.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -10.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -12.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -6.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 654.5%
Total Debt to Equity 727.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Total Capital -2.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Return On Equity -16.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Asset Turnover 2.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 19.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.8%
EBITDA Margin 2.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Net Profit Margin -0.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.1%
Payout Ratio -50%

DVCR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DVCR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $426 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Diversicare Healthcare Services. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Diversicare Healthcare Services. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DVCR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 50.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.9%, whose default value for DVCR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Diversicare Healthcare Services, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Diversicare Healthcare Services.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DVCR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DVCR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.7% for Diversicare Healthcare Services.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Diversicare Healthcare Services. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DVCR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DVCR are equal to 14.8%.

Life of production assets of 7.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Diversicare Healthcare Services operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DVCR is equal to 5.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $11 million for Diversicare Healthcare Services - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 6.638 million for Diversicare Healthcare Services is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Diversicare Healthcare Services at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 6 High-Yield Stocks With Declining Prices   [Dec-11-17 02:39PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Diversicare Healthcare reports 3Q loss   [Nov-06-17 05:37AM  Associated Press]
▶ Diversicare Announces 2017 Third Quarter Results   [Nov-02-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Diversicare Healthcare posts 2Q profit   [Aug-05-17 01:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ Diversicare Announces 2017 Second Quarter Results   [Aug-03-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Diversicare Healthcare posts 1Q profit   [May-04-17 07:57PM  Associated Press]
▶ Diversicare Healthcare posts 4Q profit   [Mar-02-17 04:40PM  Associated Press]
▶ Diversicare Acquires 12 Facilities in Alabama   [Nov-01-16 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Diversicare Acquires 10 Facilities in Mississippi   [Oct-03-16 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Diversicare Announces 2015 Third Quarter Results   [Nov-05  04:42PM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of DVCR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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