Intrinsic value of Dynex Capital - DX

Previous Close

$7.18

  Intrinsic Value

$5.75

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-20%

Previous close

$7.18

 
Intrinsic value

$5.75

 
Up/down potential

-20%

 
Rating

hold

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as DX.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -8.00
  8.70
  8.33
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.18
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.17
Revenue, $m
  92
  100
  108
  117
  126
  135
  145
  155
  166
  177
  188
  200
  212
  225
  238
  252
  267
  282
  298
  314
  332
  350
  369
  388
  409
  431
  453
  477
  502
  528
  555
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  84
  91
  98
  105
  113
  121
  130
  139
  148
  157
  167
  178
  188
  199
  211
  223
  236
  249
  263
  278
  293
  309
  325
  342
  361
  379
  399
  420
  442
  465
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  49
  84
  91
  98
  105
  113
  121
  130
  139
  148
  157
  167
  178
  188
  199
  211
  223
  236
  249
  263
  278
  293
  309
  325
  342
  361
  379
  399
  420
  442
  465
Operating income, $m
  43
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
EBITDA, $m
  45
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
Interest expense (income), $m
  24
  99
  107
  116
  125
  135
  145
  155
  166
  177
  189
  201
  214
  227
  241
  255
  270
  286
  302
  319
  337
  356
  375
  395
  417
  439
  462
  486
  512
  539
  567
Earnings before tax, $m
  43
  -83
  -89
  -96
  -104
  -112
  -121
  -130
  -139
  -148
  -158
  -169
  -179
  -190
  -202
  -214
  -227
  -240
  -254
  -268
  -283
  -299
  -315
  -332
  -350
  -369
  -388
  -409
  -430
  -453
  -476
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  43
  -83
  -89
  -96
  -104
  -112
  -121
  -130
  -139
  -148
  -158
  -169
  -179
  -190
  -202
  -214
  -227
  -240
  -254
  -268
  -283
  -299
  -315
  -332
  -350
  -369
  -388
  -409
  -430
  -453
  -476

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  74
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,398
  3,572
  3,869
  4,178
  4,500
  4,834
  5,182
  5,543
  5,918
  6,308
  6,714
  7,136
  7,576
  8,034
  8,511
  9,009
  9,528
  10,069
  10,635
  11,226
  11,843
  12,489
  13,164
  13,870
  14,609
  15,382
  16,192
  17,041
  17,929
  18,861
  19,836
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,324
  3,572
  3,869
  4,178
  4,500
  4,834
  5,182
  5,543
  5,918
  6,308
  6,714
  7,136
  7,576
  8,034
  8,511
  9,009
  9,528
  10,069
  10,635
  11,226
  11,843
  12,489
  13,164
  13,870
  14,609
  15,382
  16,192
  17,041
  17,929
  18,861
  19,836
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
  0.028
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  50
  54
  58
  63
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  94
  100
  106
  112
  119
  126
  133
  141
  149
  157
  166
  175
  184
  194
  205
  215
  227
  239
  251
  264
  278
Total debt, $m
  2,905
  3,046
  3,301
  3,568
  3,844
  4,132
  4,430
  4,741
  5,063
  5,399
  5,748
  6,111
  6,489
  6,883
  7,294
  7,721
  8,168
  8,634
  9,120
  9,628
  10,159
  10,714
  11,295
  11,902
  12,538
  13,203
  13,899
  14,629
  15,393
  16,194
  17,033
Total liabilities, $m
  2,931
  3,072
  3,327
  3,594
  3,870
  4,158
  4,456
  4,767
  5,089
  5,425
  5,774
  6,137
  6,515
  6,909
  7,320
  7,747
  8,194
  8,660
  9,146
  9,654
  10,185
  10,740
  11,321
  11,928
  12,564
  13,229
  13,925
  14,655
  15,419
  16,220
  17,059
Total equity, $m
  467
  500
  542
  585
  630
  677
  725
  776
  829
  883
  940
  999
  1,061
  1,125
  1,192
  1,261
  1,334
  1,410
  1,489
  1,572
  1,658
  1,748
  1,843
  1,942
  2,045
  2,154
  2,267
  2,386
  2,510
  2,640
  2,777
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,398
  3,572
  3,869
  4,179
  4,500
  4,835
  5,181
  5,543
  5,918
  6,308
  6,714
  7,136
  7,576
  8,034
  8,512
  9,008
  9,528
  10,070
  10,635
  11,226
  11,843
  12,488
  13,164
  13,870
  14,609
  15,383
  16,192
  17,041
  17,929
  18,860
  19,836
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.221
  6.090
  6.090
  6.100
  6.100
  6.100
  6.110
  6.110
  6.110
  6.110
  6.120
  6.120
  6.120
  6.120
  6.120
  6.120
  6.120
  6.120
  6.130
  6.130
  6.130
  6.130
  6.130
  6.130
  6.130
  6.130
  6.130
  6.130
  6.130
  6.130
  6.130
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  43
  -83
  -89
  -96
  -104
  -112
  -121
  -130
  -139
  -148
  -158
  -169
  -179
  -190
  -202
  -214
  -227
  -240
  -254
  -268
  -283
  -299
  -315
  -332
  -350
  -369
  -388
  -409
  -430
  -453
  -476
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  214
  -83
  -89
  -96
  -104
  -112
  -121
  -130
  -139
  -148
  -158
  -169
  -179
  -190
  -202
  -214
  -227
  -240
  -254
  -268
  -283
  -299
  -315
  -332
  -350
  -369
  -388
  -409
  -430
  -453
  -476
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
Cash from operations, $m
  211
  -87
  -93
  -101
  -109
  -117
  -126
  -135
  -144
  -154
  -164
  -175
  -185
  -197
  -209
  -221
  -234
  -248
  -262
  -276
  -292
  -308
  -324
  -342
  -360
  -379
  -400
  -421
  -443
  -466
  -490
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  68
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  279
  -87
  -93
  -101
  -109
  -117
  -126
  -135
  -144
  -154
  -164
  -175
  -185
  -197
  -209
  -221
  -234
  -248
  -262
  -276
  -292
  -308
  -324
  -342
  -360
  -379
  -400
  -421
  -443
  -466
  -490
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -2
  215
  256
  266
  277
  287
  299
  310
  323
  336
  349
  363
  378
  394
  410
  428
  446
  466
  486
  508
  531
  555
  580
  607
  636
  665
  697
  730
  764
  801
  839
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  116
  131
  140
  149
  159
  170
  180
  191
  203
  215
  228
  241
  255
  269
  284
  299
  316
  333
  351
  369
  389
  409
  431
  453
  477
  502
  527
  555
  583
  613
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -186
  331
  387
  406
  426
  446
  469
  490
  514
  539
  564
  591
  619
  649
  679
  712
  745
  782
  819
  859
  900
  944
  989
  1,038
  1,089
  1,142
  1,199
  1,257
  1,319
  1,384
  1,452
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  92
  244
  293
  305
  317
  330
  342
  356
  370
  385
  400
  416
  434
  452
  471
  491
  512
  534
  558
  583
  609
  636
  666
  696
  729
  763
  799
  836
  876
  918
  962
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  25
  -116
  -131
  -140
  -149
  -159
  -170
  -180
  -191
  -203
  -215
  -228
  -241
  -255
  -269
  -284
  -299
  -316
  -333
  -351
  -369
  -389
  -409
  -431
  -453
  -477
  -502
  -527
  -555
  -583
  -613
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  128
  163
  165
  168
  170
  173
  176
  179
  182
  185
  189
  193
  197
  202
  207
  212
  218
  225
  232
  239
  247
  256
  265
  275
  286
  297
  309
  322
  335
  349
Discount rate, %
 
  12.90
  13.55
  14.22
  14.93
  15.68
  16.46
  17.29
  18.15
  19.06
  20.01
  21.01
  22.06
  23.17
  24.32
  25.54
  26.82
  28.16
  29.57
  31.05
  32.60
  34.23
  35.94
  37.74
  39.62
  41.60
  43.68
  45.87
  48.16
  50.57
  53.10
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  113
  126
  111
  96
  82
  69
  58
  47
  38
  30
  23
  18
  13
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  75.3
  56.0
  41.8
  31.2
  23.4
  17.6
  13.2
  10.0
  7.5
  5.7
  4.3
  3.3
  2.5
  1.9
  1.4
  1.1
  0.8
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Dynex Capital, Inc. is an internally managed mortgage real estate investment trust, which invests in residential and commercial mortgage securities on a leveraged basis. The Company's objective is to provide attractive risk-adjusted returns to its shareholders over the long term that is reflective of a leveraged fixed income portfolio with a focus on capital preservation. It seeks to provide returns to its shareholders through regular quarterly dividends and through capital appreciation. It invests in Agency and non-Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). MBS consists of residential MBS (RMBS), commercial MBS (CMBS) and CMBS interest-only securities. Agency MBS have a guaranty of principal payment by an agency of the United States Government or a government-sponsored entity (GSE), such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Dynex Capital (DX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 8.2
Price to Sales 3.8
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 1.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 1.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 1.3%
Total Debt to Equity 622.1%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Return On Total Capital 1.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Return On Equity 9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 72.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 75.4%
EBITDA Margin 75%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.3%
Operating Margin 46.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 46.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.1%
Net Profit Margin 46.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 120.9%

DX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $92 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Dynex Capital. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Dynex Capital. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.9%, whose default value for DX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Dynex Capital, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Dynex Capital.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Dynex Capital.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Dynex Capital. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DX are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 0 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Dynex Capital operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DX is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $467 million for Dynex Capital - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 49.234 million for Dynex Capital is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Dynex Capital at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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Financial statements of DX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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