Intrinsic value of DXP Enterprises - DXPE

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$33.23

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DXPE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -22.85
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  962
  1,272
  1,301
  1,335
  1,372
  1,414
  1,459
  1,509
  1,563
  1,621
  1,683
  1,750
  1,821
  1,896
  1,977
  2,062
  2,152
  2,248
  2,349
  2,456
  2,569
  2,688
  2,813
  2,946
  3,085
  3,232
  3,387
  3,549
  3,721
  3,901
  4,091
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,191
  1,218
  1,249
  1,284
  1,322
  1,364
  1,410
  1,459
  1,513
  1,570
  1,612
  1,677
  1,747
  1,821
  1,899
  1,983
  2,071
  2,164
  2,262
  2,366
  2,476
  2,592
  2,714
  2,842
  2,977
  3,120
  3,270
  3,428
  3,594
  3,768
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  113
  116
  118
  121
  124
  128
  131
  134
  137
  141
  144
  148
  152
  155
  159
  163
  167
  172
  176
  180
  185
  189
  194
  199
  204
  209
  214
  220
  225
  231
Total operating expenses, $m
  943
  1,304
  1,334
  1,367
  1,405
  1,446
  1,492
  1,541
  1,593
  1,650
  1,711
  1,756
  1,825
  1,899
  1,976
  2,058
  2,146
  2,238
  2,336
  2,438
  2,546
  2,661
  2,781
  2,908
  3,041
  3,181
  3,329
  3,484
  3,648
  3,819
  3,999
Operating income, $m
  19
  -32
  -33
  -33
  -33
  -33
  -32
  -32
  -31
  -29
  -28
  -6
  -4
  -2
  0
  3
  6
  10
  14
  18
  22
  27
  32
  38
  44
  51
  58
  65
  74
  82
  92
EBITDA, $m
  49
  3
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  22
  25
  29
  33
  38
  43
  48
  54
  61
  68
  75
  83
  91
  100
  110
  120
  131
  143
Interest expense (income), $m
  14
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
Earnings before tax, $m
  10
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -46
  -47
  -47
  -47
  -46
  -46
  -45
  -25
  -24
  -22
  -21
  -19
  -17
  -15
  -12
  -10
  -7
  -3
  0
  4
  9
  13
  19
  24
  30
  36
  43
Tax expense, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  4
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
Net income, $m
  8
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -46
  -47
  -47
  -47
  -46
  -46
  -45
  -25
  -24
  -22
  -21
  -19
  -17
  -15
  -12
  -10
  -7
  -3
  0
  3
  6
  10
  14
  18
  22
  27
  32

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  612
  696
  712
  730
  751
  773
  798
  826
  855
  887
  921
  957
  996
  1,037
  1,081
  1,128
  1,177
  1,230
  1,285
  1,343
  1,405
  1,470
  1,539
  1,611
  1,688
  1,768
  1,853
  1,942
  2,035
  2,134
  2,238
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  610
  696
  712
  730
  751
  773
  798
  826
  855
  887
  921
  957
  996
  1,037
  1,081
  1,128
  1,177
  1,230
  1,285
  1,343
  1,405
  1,470
  1,539
  1,611
  1,688
  1,768
  1,853
  1,942
  2,035
  2,134
  2,238
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.577
  1.828
  1.827
  1.829
  1.827
  1.829
  1.828
  1.827
  1.828
  1.828
  1.827
  1.829
  1.828
  1.828
  1.829
  1.828
  1.828
  1.828
  1.828
  1.829
  1.828
  1.829
  1.828
  1.829
  1.828
  1.828
  1.828
  1.827
  1.829
  1.828
  1.828
Average production assets, $m
  168
  195
  199
  204
  210
  216
  223
  231
  239
  248
  258
  268
  279
  290
  302
  315
  329
  344
  359
  376
  393
  411
  430
  451
  472
  495
  518
  543
  569
  597
  626
Working capital, $m
  100
  177
  181
  186
  191
  197
  203
  210
  217
  225
  234
  243
  253
  264
  275
  287
  299
  312
  327
  341
  357
  374
  391
  409
  429
  449
  471
  493
  517
  542
  569
Total debt, $m
  226
  360
  371
  384
  399
  415
  433
  452
  473
  495
  520
  546
  573
  603
  634
  667
  702
  739
  779
  820
  864
  910
  959
  1,011
  1,065
  1,122
  1,182
  1,246
  1,312
  1,382
  1,456
Total liabilities, $m
  360
  495
  506
  519
  534
  550
  568
  587
  608
  630
  655
  681
  708
  738
  769
  802
  837
  874
  914
  955
  999
  1,045
  1,094
  1,146
  1,200
  1,257
  1,317
  1,381
  1,447
  1,517
  1,591
Total equity, $m
  252
  201
  206
  211
  217
  224
  231
  239
  247
  256
  266
  277
  288
  300
  312
  326
  340
  355
  371
  388
  406
  425
  445
  466
  488
  511
  535
  561
  588
  617
  647
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  612
  696
  712
  730
  751
  774
  799
  826
  855
  886
  921
  958
  996
  1,038
  1,081
  1,128
  1,177
  1,229
  1,285
  1,343
  1,405
  1,470
  1,539
  1,612
  1,688
  1,768
  1,852
  1,942
  2,035
  2,134
  2,238
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.897
  1.790
  1.800
  1.820
  1.840
  1.860
  1.880
  1.890
  1.910
  1.930
  1.950
  1.970
  1.990
  2.010
  2.030
  2.050
  2.060
  2.080
  2.100
  2.110
  2.130
  2.140
  2.160
  2.170
  2.180
  2.200
  2.210
  2.220
  2.230
  2.240
  2.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.410
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289
  0.289

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  8
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -46
  -47
  -47
  -47
  -46
  -46
  -45
  -25
  -24
  -22
  -21
  -19
  -17
  -15
  -12
  -10
  -7
  -3
  0
  3
  6
  10
  14
  18
  22
  27
  32
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  30
  36
  36
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  39
  40
  41
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  42
  45
  47
  49
  51
Funds from operations, $m
  56
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -1
  2
  4
  7
  10
  13
  17
  21
  26
  31
  36
  40
  45
  50
  56
  62
  69
  75
  83
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
Cash from operations, $m
  48
  -22
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -12
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -3
  0
  3
  6
  10
  14
  18
  22
  26
  30
  35
  39
  45
  50
  56
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
Cash from investing activities, $m
  28
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -78
Free cash flow, $m
  76
  -42
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -42
  -43
  -43
  -43
  -43
  -43
  -43
  -42
  -42
  -41
  -39
  -38
  -36
  -35
  -34
  -33
  -31
  -30
  -28
  -26
  -24
  -21
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -126
  10
  11
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  52
  36
  27
  28
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  28
  27
  26
  25
  23
  21
  19
  17
  15
  12
  9
  6
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -76
  46
  38
  41
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  53
  54
  55
  55
  56
  56
  56
  56
  56
  57
  56
  55
  55
  54
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  -32
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -21
  -20
  -19
  -17
  -16
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -7
  -4
  -1
  2
  6
  10
  14
  18
  22
  26
  30
  35
  41
  46
  52
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -55
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  3
  6
  10
  14
  18
  22
Discount rate, %
 
  9.50
  9.98
  10.47
  11.00
  11.55
  12.12
  12.73
  13.37
  14.04
  14.74
  15.47
  16.25
  17.06
  17.91
  18.81
  19.75
  20.74
  21.77
  22.86
  24.01
  25.21
  26.47
  27.79
  29.18
  30.64
  32.17
  33.78
  35.47
  37.24
  39.10
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  93.9
  89.6
  85.5
  81.6
  77.9
  74.4
  71.2
  68.2
  65.5
  63.0
  60.7
  58.7
  56.9
  55.2
  53.8
  52.6
  51.6
  50.7
  50.0
  49.4
  49.0
  48.8
  48.7
  48.7
  48.7
  48.7
  48.7
  48.7
  48.7
  48.7

DXP Enterprises, Inc. engages in distributing maintenance, repair, and operating (MRO) products, equipment, and services to industrial customers in the United States. It operates through three segments: Service Centers, Supply Chain Services, and Innovative Pumping Solutions. The Service Centers segment offers MRO products, equipment, and integrated services, including technical expertise and logistics services. It offers rotating equipment, bearing, power transmission, hose, fluid power, metal working, industrial supply, and safety products; and field safety supervision, in-house and field repair, and predictive maintenance services. This segment offers its MRO products for use in the oil and gas, food and beverage, petrochemical, transportation, and other general industrial industries, as well as for mining, construction, chemical, municipal, agriculture, and pulp and paper. The Supply Chain Services segment manages procurement and inventory management solutions; and provides inventory optimization and management, store room management, transaction consolidation and control, vendor oversight and procurement cost optimization, productivity improvement, and customized reporting services. This segment designs programs, such as SmartAgreement, a procurement solution for MRO categories; SmartBuy, an on-site or centralized MRO procurement solution; SmartSource, an on-site procurement and storeroom management solution; SmartStore, an e-catalog solution; SmartVend, an industrial dispensing solution; and SmartServ, an integrated service pump solution. The Innovative Pumping Solutions segment provides pump packages comprising diesel and electric driven firewater, pipeline booster, potable water, pigging, lease automatic custody transfer charge unit, chemical injection wash down unit, seawater lift, jockey, condensate, cooling water, and seawater/produced water injection pump packages. The company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  DXP Enterprises (DXPE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 71.4
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 13.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -22.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -64.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 69.4%
Total Debt to Equity 89.7%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.4%
Return On Total Capital 1.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.3%
Return On Equity 3.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.3%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 27.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.2%
EBITDA Margin 5.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Operating Margin 2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Net Profit Margin 0.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.8%
Effective Tax Rate 30%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

DXPE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DXPE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1247 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by DXP Enterprises. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of DXP Enterprises. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DXPE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.5%, whose default value for DXPE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of DXP Enterprises, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of DXP Enterprises.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DXPE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $110 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DXPE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for DXP Enterprises.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for DXP Enterprises. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DXPE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DXPE are equal to 15.3%.

Life of production assets of 12.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in DXP Enterprises operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DXPE is equal to 13.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $197 million for DXP Enterprises - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 16.679 million for DXP Enterprises is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of DXP Enterprises at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 5 Stocks Set to Soar on New Analyst Coverage   [May-31-17 09:05AM  Zacks]
▶ DXP Enterprises posts 1Q profit   [04:06PM  Associated Press]
▶ DXP Enterprises posts 4Q profit   [07:16AM  Associated Press]
▶ DXP Enterprises Inc (DXPE) Hedge Funds Are Snapping Up   [Dec-09-16 12:15PM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of DXPE Financial statements of DXPE Annual reports of DXPE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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