Intrinsic value of Dycom Industries - DY

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$91.17

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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$91.17

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  32.20
  21.20
  19.58
  18.12
  16.81
  15.63
  14.57
  13.61
  12.75
  11.97
  11.28
  10.65
  10.08
  9.58
  9.12
  8.71
  8.34
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.60
  6.44
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
Revenue, $m
  2,673
  3,240
  3,874
  4,576
  5,345
  6,181
  7,081
  8,045
  9,070
  10,156
  11,301
  12,505
  13,766
  15,084
  16,459
  17,892
  19,384
  20,935
  22,547
  24,223
  25,964
  27,773
  29,654
  31,610
  33,645
  35,762
  37,966
  40,261
  42,654
  45,148
  47,750
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,851
  3,403
  4,014
  4,684
  5,411
  6,194
  7,033
  7,926
  8,871
  9,868
  10,884
  11,982
  13,129
  14,326
  15,573
  16,872
  18,222
  19,625
  21,083
  22,599
  24,174
  25,811
  27,514
  29,284
  31,127
  33,045
  35,043
  37,126
  39,297
  41,562
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  89
  91
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  109
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  129
  132
  136
  139
  143
  146
  150
  154
  157
  161
  165
  169
  174
  178
  182
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,442
  2,940
  3,494
  4,108
  4,780
  5,509
  6,295
  7,136
  8,032
  8,980
  9,979
  10,998
  12,099
  13,249
  14,449
  15,699
  17,001
  18,354
  19,761
  21,222
  22,742
  24,320
  25,961
  27,668
  29,441
  31,288
  33,210
  35,212
  37,300
  39,475
  41,744
Operating income, $m
  231
  300
  380
  468
  566
  672
  786
  908
  1,038
  1,177
  1,322
  1,506
  1,667
  1,835
  2,010
  2,193
  2,383
  2,581
  2,786
  3,000
  3,222
  3,453
  3,693
  3,943
  4,203
  4,473
  4,755
  5,048
  5,354
  5,673
  6,006
EBITDA, $m
  356
  422
  520
  629
  748
  877
  1,017
  1,167
  1,326
  1,495
  1,673
  1,860
  2,056
  2,261
  2,476
  2,699
  2,931
  3,173
  3,424
  3,685
  3,956
  4,239
  4,532
  4,837
  5,154
  5,485
  5,828
  6,187
  6,560
  6,950
  7,356
Interest expense (income), $m
  16
  25
  33
  43
  53
  65
  78
  91
  106
  121
  137
  155
  173
  192
  212
  232
  254
  276
  300
  324
  349
  375
  403
  431
  461
  491
  523
  556
  591
  627
  664
Earnings before tax, $m
  206
  275
  346
  426
  512
  607
  708
  817
  933
  1,056
  1,185
  1,352
  1,494
  1,643
  1,799
  1,960
  2,129
  2,304
  2,487
  2,676
  2,873
  3,078
  3,291
  3,512
  3,742
  3,982
  4,232
  4,492
  4,763
  5,046
  5,341
Tax expense, $m
  77
  74
  94
  115
  138
  164
  191
  221
  252
  285
  320
  365
  403
  444
  486
  529
  575
  622
  671
  723
  776
  831
  888
  948
  1,010
  1,075
  1,143
  1,213
  1,286
  1,362
  1,442
Net income, $m
  129
  201
  253
  311
  374
  443
  517
  596
  681
  771
  865
  987
  1,091
  1,199
  1,313
  1,431
  1,554
  1,682
  1,815
  1,954
  2,097
  2,247
  2,402
  2,564
  2,732
  2,907
  3,089
  3,279
  3,477
  3,684
  3,899

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  34
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,720
  2,044
  2,444
  2,887
  3,372
  3,899
  4,467
  5,075
  5,723
  6,408
  7,130
  7,890
  8,685
  9,517
  10,384
  11,288
  12,229
  13,208
  14,225
  15,282
  16,381
  17,523
  18,709
  19,943
  21,227
  22,563
  23,953
  25,401
  26,911
  28,484
  30,126
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,686
  2,044
  2,444
  2,887
  3,372
  3,899
  4,467
  5,075
  5,723
  6,408
  7,130
  7,890
  8,685
  9,517
  10,384
  11,288
  12,229
  13,208
  14,225
  15,282
  16,381
  17,523
  18,709
  19,943
  21,227
  22,563
  23,953
  25,401
  26,911
  28,484
  30,126
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
Average production assets, $m
  438
  531
  635
  750
  877
  1,014
  1,161
  1,319
  1,488
  1,666
  1,853
  2,051
  2,258
  2,474
  2,699
  2,934
  3,179
  3,433
  3,698
  3,973
  4,258
  4,555
  4,863
  5,184
  5,518
  5,865
  6,226
  6,603
  6,995
  7,404
  7,831
Working capital, $m
  528
  616
  736
  869
  1,016
  1,174
  1,345
  1,528
  1,723
  1,930
  2,147
  2,376
  2,616
  2,866
  3,127
  3,400
  3,683
  3,978
  4,284
  4,602
  4,933
  5,277
  5,634
  6,006
  6,392
  6,795
  7,213
  7,650
  8,104
  8,578
  9,072
Total debt, $m
  719
  950
  1,223
  1,525
  1,856
  2,215
  2,603
  3,017
  3,459
  3,926
  4,419
  4,937
  5,479
  6,046
  6,638
  7,255
  7,896
  8,564
  9,258
  9,979
  10,728
  11,506
  12,316
  13,157
  14,033
  14,944
  15,892
  16,880
  17,909
  18,982
  20,102
Total liabilities, $m
  1,162
  1,394
  1,667
  1,969
  2,300
  2,659
  3,047
  3,461
  3,903
  4,370
  4,863
  5,381
  5,923
  6,490
  7,082
  7,699
  8,340
  9,008
  9,702
  10,423
  11,172
  11,950
  12,760
  13,601
  14,477
  15,388
  16,336
  17,324
  18,353
  19,426
  20,546
Total equity, $m
  557
  650
  777
  918
  1,072
  1,240
  1,421
  1,614
  1,820
  2,038
  2,267
  2,509
  2,762
  3,026
  3,302
  3,590
  3,889
  4,200
  4,524
  4,860
  5,209
  5,572
  5,950
  6,342
  6,750
  7,175
  7,617
  8,078
  8,558
  9,058
  9,580
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,719
  2,044
  2,444
  2,887
  3,372
  3,899
  4,468
  5,075
  5,723
  6,408
  7,130
  7,890
  8,685
  9,516
  10,384
  11,289
  12,229
  13,208
  14,226
  15,283
  16,381
  17,522
  18,710
  19,943
  21,227
  22,563
  23,953
  25,402
  26,911
  28,484
  30,126
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.291
  1.460
  1.570
  1.660
  1.730
  1.790
  1.830
  1.870
  1.900
  1.930
  1.950
  1.970
  1.980
  2.000
  2.010
  2.020
  2.030
  2.040
  2.050
  2.050
  2.060
  2.060
  2.070
  2.070
  2.080
  2.080
  2.090
  2.090
  2.090
  2.100
  2.100
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.310
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  129
  201
  253
  311
  374
  443
  517
  596
  681
  771
  865
  987
  1,091
  1,199
  1,313
  1,431
  1,554
  1,682
  1,815
  1,954
  2,097
  2,247
  2,402
  2,564
  2,732
  2,907
  3,089
  3,279
  3,477
  3,684
  3,899
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  125
  123
  141
  160
  182
  206
  231
  258
  287
  318
  351
  354
  389
  427
  465
  506
  548
  592
  638
  685
  734
  785
  839
  894
  951
  1,011
  1,074
  1,138
  1,206
  1,277
  1,350
Funds from operations, $m
  227
  323
  393
  471
  556
  649
  748
  855
  968
  1,089
  1,216
  1,340
  1,480
  1,626
  1,778
  1,937
  2,102
  2,274
  2,453
  2,638
  2,831
  3,032
  3,241
  3,458
  3,683
  3,918
  4,163
  4,418
  4,683
  4,960
  5,249
Change in working capital, $m
  -34
  108
  121
  133
  146
  159
  171
  183
  195
  206
  218
  229
  240
  250
  261
  272
  283
  295
  306
  318
  331
  344
  357
  372
  387
  402
  419
  436
  455
  474
  494
Cash from operations, $m
  261
  302
  273
  338
  410
  490
  577
  672
  774
  882
  998
  1,112
  1,240
  1,376
  1,517
  1,665
  1,819
  1,979
  2,146
  2,320
  2,501
  2,688
  2,883
  3,086
  3,297
  3,516
  3,744
  3,981
  4,229
  4,486
  4,755
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -76
  -92
  -110
  -129
  -151
  -175
  -200
  -227
  -256
  -287
  -320
  -354
  -389
  -427
  -465
  -506
  -548
  -592
  -638
  -685
  -734
  -785
  -839
  -894
  -951
  -1,011
  -1,074
  -1,138
  -1,206
  -1,277
New CAPEX, $m
  -186
  -93
  -104
  -115
  -126
  -137
  -148
  -158
  -168
  -178
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -216
  -226
  -235
  -245
  -254
  -264
  -275
  -286
  -297
  -308
  -321
  -334
  -347
  -361
  -376
  -392
  -409
  -427
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -333
  -169
  -196
  -225
  -255
  -288
  -323
  -358
  -395
  -434
  -475
  -517
  -561
  -605
  -653
  -700
  -751
  -802
  -856
  -913
  -971
  -1,031
  -1,093
  -1,160
  -1,228
  -1,298
  -1,372
  -1,450
  -1,530
  -1,615
  -1,704
Free cash flow, $m
  -72
  133
  77
  113
  154
  202
  255
  314
  378
  448
  523
  595
  680
  770
  865
  964
  1,068
  1,177
  1,290
  1,408
  1,530
  1,657
  1,789
  1,927
  2,069
  2,217
  2,371
  2,531
  2,698
  2,871
  3,052
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  309
  244
  273
  302
  331
  359
  387
  415
  441
  467
  493
  518
  543
  567
  592
  617
  642
  667
  694
  721
  749
  779
  809
  842
  875
  911
  948
  988
  1,029
  1,073
  1,120
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -93
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  84
  244
  273
  302
  331
  359
  387
  415
  441
  467
  493
  518
  543
  567
  592
  617
  642
  667
  694
  721
  749
  779
  809
  842
  875
  911
  948
  988
  1,029
  1,073
  1,120
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  13
  377
  350
  415
  485
  561
  642
  728
  819
  915
  1,016
  1,113
  1,223
  1,337
  1,457
  1,581
  1,710
  1,844
  1,984
  2,129
  2,279
  2,436
  2,599
  2,768
  2,945
  3,128
  3,320
  3,519
  3,727
  3,945
  4,171
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -50
  -114
  -127
  -141
  -154
  -168
  -181
  -193
  -206
  -218
  -230
  -241
  -253
  -264
  -276
  -287
  -299
  -311
  -323
  -336
  -349
  -363
  -377
  -392
  -408
  -425
  -442
  -461
  -480
  -500
  -522
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  284
  223
  274
  331
  394
  462
  535
  613
  697
  786
  871
  970
  1,073
  1,181
  1,293
  1,411
  1,533
  1,660
  1,793
  1,930
  2,073
  2,221
  2,376
  2,536
  2,704
  2,878
  3,059
  3,247
  3,444
  3,649
Discount rate, %
 
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.52
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.43
  17.25
  18.11
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  267
  195
  223
  248
  269
  286
  298
  305
  305
  301
  288
  274
  255
  234
  210
  186
  161
  136
  113
  92
  73
  57
  43
  32
  23
  16
  11
  7
  5
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Dycom Industries, Inc. provides specialty contracting services in the United States and Canada. The company offers various specialty contracting services, such as engineering, construction, maintenance, and installation services comprising placement and splicing of fiber, copper, and coaxial cables to telecommunications providers. It also provides tower construction, lines and antenna installation, and foundation and equipment pad construction for wireless carriers, as well as equipment installation and material fabrication, and site testing services; and installs and maintains customer premise equipment, such as digital video recorders, set top boxes, and modems for cable television system operators. In addition, the company offers underground facility locating services, such as locating telephone, cable television, power, water, sewer, and gas lines for various utility companies, including telecommunication providers. Further, it provides construction and maintenance services for electric and gas utilities, and other customers. Dycom Industries, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is based in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Dycom Industries (DY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.2
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 5.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11
Price to Free Cash Flow 38.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 32.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 80.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 23.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 126.8%
Total Debt to Equity 129.1%
Interest Coverage 14
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Total Capital 11.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Return On Equity 24.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.6%
Asset Turnover 1.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.6%
EBITDA Margin 13%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Operating Margin 8.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Net Profit Margin 4.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Effective Tax Rate 37.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

DY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2673 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Dycom Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Dycom Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.5%, whose default value for DY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Dycom Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Dycom Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $87 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Dycom Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Dycom Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DY are equal to 16.4%.

Life of production assets of 5.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Dycom Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DY is equal to 19%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $557 million for Dycom Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 31.137 million for Dycom Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Dycom Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.8 billion.


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Stock chart of DY Financial statements of DY Annual reports of DY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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