Intrinsic value of Electronic Arts - EA

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$110.87

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 34.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.21
  7.40
  7.16
  6.94
  6.75
  6.57
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.03
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.11
Revenue, $m
  4,845
  4,721
  5,059
  5,411
  5,776
  6,156
  6,551
  6,962
  7,390
  7,836
  8,300
  8,785
  9,290
  9,818
  10,368
  10,944
  11,545
  12,173
  12,831
  13,519
  14,238
  14,992
  15,781
  16,607
  17,473
  18,380
  19,331
  20,327
  21,372
  22,467
  23,616
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,726
  2,909
  3,099
  3,296
  3,502
  3,716
  3,938
  4,170
  4,411
  4,662
  4,753
  5,027
  5,312
  5,610
  5,922
  6,247
  6,587
  6,943
  7,315
  7,704
  8,112
  8,539
  8,986
  9,455
  9,945
  10,460
  10,999
  11,564
  12,157
  12,779
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  997
  1,022
  1,048
  1,074
  1,101
  1,128
  1,157
  1,186
  1,215
  1,246
  1,277
  1,309
  1,341
  1,375
  1,409
  1,444
  1,481
  1,518
  1,555
  1,594
  1,634
  1,675
  1,717
  1,760
  1,804
  1,849
  1,895
  1,943
  1,991
  2,041
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,621
  3,723
  3,931
  4,147
  4,370
  4,603
  4,844
  5,095
  5,356
  5,626
  5,908
  6,030
  6,336
  6,653
  6,985
  7,331
  7,691
  8,068
  8,461
  8,870
  9,298
  9,746
  10,214
  10,703
  11,215
  11,749
  12,309
  12,894
  13,507
  14,148
  14,820
Operating income, $m
  1,224
  998
  1,128
  1,264
  1,406
  1,553
  1,707
  1,867
  2,035
  2,210
  2,392
  2,755
  2,955
  3,164
  3,383
  3,613
  3,854
  4,106
  4,371
  4,648
  4,940
  5,246
  5,567
  5,904
  6,258
  6,631
  7,022
  7,433
  7,865
  8,319
  8,796
EBITDA, $m
  1,396
  1,219
  1,353
  1,493
  1,638
  1,789
  1,947
  2,112
  2,284
  2,464
  2,652
  2,848
  3,053
  3,268
  3,493
  3,729
  3,976
  4,235
  4,507
  4,792
  5,091
  5,405
  5,734
  6,080
  6,444
  6,826
  7,227
  7,649
  8,092
  8,558
  9,047
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  35
  21
  29
  37
  46
  54
  63
  73
  83
  93
  104
  115
  127
  139
  151
  165
  178
  193
  208
  224
  241
  258
  276
  295
  315
  336
  358
  381
  405
  430
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,210
  964
  1,107
  1,235
  1,368
  1,507
  1,652
  1,804
  1,962
  2,127
  2,299
  2,651
  2,840
  3,037
  3,245
  3,461
  3,689
  3,927
  4,178
  4,440
  4,716
  5,005
  5,309
  5,628
  5,963
  6,316
  6,686
  7,075
  7,484
  7,914
  8,366
Tax expense, $m
  243
  260
  299
  333
  369
  407
  446
  487
  530
  574
  621
  716
  767
  820
  876
  935
  996
  1,060
  1,128
  1,199
  1,273
  1,351
  1,433
  1,520
  1,610
  1,705
  1,805
  1,910
  2,021
  2,137
  2,259
Net income, $m
  967
  703
  808
  902
  999
  1,100
  1,206
  1,317
  1,432
  1,553
  1,679
  1,935
  2,073
  2,217
  2,368
  2,527
  2,693
  2,867
  3,050
  3,241
  3,442
  3,654
  3,875
  4,108
  4,353
  4,610
  4,881
  5,165
  5,463
  5,777
  6,107

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4,532
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,718
  3,454
  3,701
  3,958
  4,225
  4,503
  4,792
  5,093
  5,406
  5,732
  6,072
  6,426
  6,796
  7,182
  7,585
  8,006
  8,445
  8,905
  9,386
  9,889
  10,416
  10,967
  11,544
  12,149
  12,782
  13,445
  14,141
  14,870
  15,634
  16,435
  17,276
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,186
  3,454
  3,701
  3,958
  4,225
  4,503
  4,792
  5,093
  5,406
  5,732
  6,072
  6,426
  6,796
  7,182
  7,585
  8,006
  8,445
  8,905
  9,386
  9,889
  10,416
  10,967
  11,544
  12,149
  12,782
  13,445
  14,141
  14,870
  15,634
  16,435
  17,276
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.521
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
  1.367
Average production assets, $m
  252
  571
  612
  655
  699
  745
  793
  842
  894
  948
  1,004
  1,063
  1,124
  1,188
  1,255
  1,324
  1,397
  1,473
  1,553
  1,636
  1,723
  1,814
  1,909
  2,009
  2,114
  2,224
  2,339
  2,460
  2,586
  2,719
  2,858
Working capital, $m
  2,784
  -1,865
  -1,998
  -2,137
  -2,281
  -2,431
  -2,587
  -2,750
  -2,919
  -3,095
  -3,279
  -3,470
  -3,670
  -3,878
  -4,095
  -4,323
  -4,560
  -4,809
  -5,068
  -5,340
  -5,624
  -5,922
  -6,233
  -6,560
  -6,902
  -7,260
  -7,636
  -8,029
  -8,442
  -8,875
  -9,328
Total debt, $m
  990
  606
  829
  1,060
  1,301
  1,551
  1,811
  2,081
  2,363
  2,657
  2,963
  3,282
  3,614
  3,962
  4,324
  4,703
  5,099
  5,513
  5,946
  6,398
  6,872
  7,368
  7,888
  8,432
  9,002
  9,599
  10,225
  10,881
  11,569
  12,290
  13,046
Total liabilities, $m
  3,658
  3,108
  3,331
  3,562
  3,803
  4,053
  4,313
  4,583
  4,865
  5,159
  5,465
  5,784
  6,116
  6,464
  6,826
  7,205
  7,601
  8,015
  8,448
  8,900
  9,374
  9,870
  10,390
  10,934
  11,504
  12,101
  12,727
  13,383
  14,071
  14,792
  15,548
Total equity, $m
  4,060
  345
  370
  396
  423
  450
  479
  509
  541
  573
  607
  643
  680
  718
  758
  801
  845
  891
  939
  989
  1,042
  1,097
  1,154
  1,215
  1,278
  1,345
  1,414
  1,487
  1,563
  1,644
  1,728
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,718
  3,453
  3,701
  3,958
  4,226
  4,503
  4,792
  5,092
  5,406
  5,732
  6,072
  6,427
  6,796
  7,182
  7,584
  8,006
  8,446
  8,906
  9,387
  9,889
  10,416
  10,967
  11,544
  12,149
  12,782
  13,446
  14,141
  14,870
  15,634
  16,436
  17,276
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.244
  1.760
  2.240
  2.680
  3.080
  3.440
  3.780
  4.090
  4.370
  4.630
  4.880
  5.110
  5.320
  5.520
  5.700
  5.870
  6.040
  6.190
  6.330
  6.470
  6.600
  6.720
  6.830
  6.940
  7.040
  7.140
  7.230
  7.320
  7.400
  7.480
  7.550
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.148
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  967
  703
  808
  902
  999
  1,100
  1,206
  1,317
  1,432
  1,553
  1,679
  1,935
  2,073
  2,217
  2,368
  2,527
  2,693
  2,867
  3,050
  3,241
  3,442
  3,654
  3,875
  4,108
  4,353
  4,610
  4,881
  5,165
  5,463
  5,777
  6,107
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  172
  221
  225
  228
  232
  236
  241
  245
  249
  254
  259
  93
  99
  104
  110
  116
  123
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  167
  176
  185
  195
  205
  216
  227
  238
  251
Funds from operations, $m
  1,331
  925
  1,033
  1,130
  1,231
  1,337
  1,447
  1,562
  1,682
  1,807
  1,938
  2,028
  2,172
  2,322
  2,479
  2,643
  2,815
  2,996
  3,186
  3,385
  3,594
  3,813
  4,043
  4,285
  4,539
  4,805
  5,086
  5,381
  5,690
  6,016
  6,358
Change in working capital, $m
  -52
  -128
  -134
  -139
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -184
  -191
  -200
  -208
  -218
  -227
  -237
  -248
  -260
  -272
  -284
  -298
  -312
  -326
  -342
  -358
  -376
  -394
  -413
  -433
  -454
Cash from operations, $m
  1,383
  1,016
  1,167
  1,269
  1,376
  1,487
  1,603
  1,724
  1,851
  1,983
  2,121
  2,220
  2,371
  2,530
  2,696
  2,870
  3,053
  3,244
  3,445
  3,656
  3,878
  4,110
  4,355
  4,611
  4,881
  5,164
  5,461
  5,774
  6,103
  6,448
  6,812
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -216
  -227
  -238
New CAPEX, $m
  -123
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -133
  -139
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -759
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -154
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -199
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -242
  -254
  -267
  -281
  -295
  -310
  -326
  -342
  -360
  -377
Free cash flow, $m
  624
  931
  1,076
  1,173
  1,274
  1,379
  1,490
  1,605
  1,725
  1,851
  1,982
  2,073
  2,217
  2,367
  2,525
  2,691
  2,864
  3,046
  3,237
  3,437
  3,647
  3,868
  4,100
  4,344
  4,600
  4,869
  5,151
  5,448
  5,761
  6,089
  6,434
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -163
  -385
  223
  231
  240
  250
  260
  271
  282
  294
  306
  319
  333
  347
  363
  379
  396
  414
  433
  453
  474
  496
  519
  544
  570
  597
  626
  656
  688
  721
  756
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -436
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -534
  -385
  223
  231
  240
  250
  260
  271
  282
  294
  306
  319
  333
  347
  363
  379
  396
  414
  433
  453
  474
  496
  519
  544
  570
  597
  626
  656
  688
  721
  756
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  72
  546
  1,298
  1,404
  1,514
  1,630
  1,750
  1,875
  2,007
  2,144
  2,288
  2,392
  2,550
  2,715
  2,888
  3,069
  3,260
  3,460
  3,670
  3,890
  4,121
  4,364
  4,619
  4,888
  5,170
  5,466
  5,777
  6,104
  6,449
  6,810
  7,191
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -664
  -622
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  3,673
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  3,597
  1,273
  1,378
  1,488
  1,602
  1,721
  1,845
  1,975
  2,111
  2,254
  2,357
  2,513
  2,676
  2,848
  3,027
  3,216
  3,414
  3,621
  3,840
  4,069
  4,309
  4,562
  4,827
  5,106
  5,399
  5,708
  6,032
  6,372
  6,730
  7,107
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  3,449
  1,166
  1,199
  1,225
  1,242
  1,249
  1,247
  1,235
  1,213
  1,182
  1,119
  1,072
  1,018
  956
  889
  817
  743
  667
  591
  517
  446
  379
  316
  260
  210
  167
  129
  99
  73
  54
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Electronic Arts Inc. develops, markets, publishes, and distributes games, content, and services for consoles, personal computers, mobile phones, and tablets worldwide. It develops and publishes digital interactive entertainment games primarily under the FIFA, Madden NFL, Star Wars, Battlefield, The Sims, Need for Speed, Mass Effect, Dragon Age, Plants vs. Zombies, and Titanfall brand names. The company also offers casual games, such as cards, puzzles, and word games through its Pogo online service. Electronic Arts Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Redwood City, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Electronic Arts (EA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 35.2
Price to Sales 7
Price to Book 8.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 27
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 32.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 24.4%
Total Debt to Equity 24.4%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Return On Total Capital 20.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.8%
Return On Equity 25.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.3%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 73.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 70.3%
EBITDA Margin 28.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.2%
Operating Margin 25.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 25%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.8%
Net Profit Margin 20%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.9%
Effective Tax Rate 20.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

EA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4396 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Electronic Arts. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Electronic Arts. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Electronic Arts, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Electronic Arts.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 58%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $973 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Electronic Arts.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Electronic Arts. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EA are equal to 12.1%.

Life of production assets of 11.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Electronic Arts operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EA is equal to -39.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3396 million for Electronic Arts - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 306.536 million for Electronic Arts is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Electronic Arts at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $34.0 billion.


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Stock chart of EA Financial statements of EA Annual reports of EA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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