Intrinsic value of Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT - EARN

Previous Close

$11.08

  Intrinsic Value

$10.82

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-2%

Previous close

$11.08

 
Intrinsic value

$10.82

 
Up/down potential

-2%

 
Rating

hold

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as EARN.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EARN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -17.07
  24.40
  22.46
  20.71
  19.14
  17.73
  16.46
  15.31
  14.28
  13.35
  12.52
  11.76
  11.09
  10.48
  9.93
  9.44
  8.99
  8.59
  8.24
  7.91
  7.62
  7.36
  7.12
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.39
  6.25
  6.13
  6.02
  5.91
Revenue, $m
  34
  37
  46
  55
  66
  77
  90
  104
  119
  135
  151
  169
  188
  208
  228
  250
  272
  296
  320
  346
  372
  399
  428
  457
  488
  520
  553
  588
  624
  661
  700
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  73
  77
  81
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
Total operating expenses, $m
  14
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
  63
  68
  72
  77
  81
  85
Operating income, $m
  19
  30
  38
  46
  55
  66
  77
  89
  102
  116
  131
  147
  164
  181
  199
  218
  238
  259
  280
  302
  325
  350
  375
  401
  428
  456
  485
  516
  547
  581
  615
EBITDA, $m
  19
  237
  291
  351
  419
  493
  575
  663
  758
  860
  968
  1,082
  1,202
  1,328
  1,460
  1,598
  1,742
  1,892
  2,048
  2,210
  2,378
  2,554
  2,736
  2,925
  3,122
  3,326
  3,539
  3,760
  3,991
  4,231
  4,481
Interest expense (income), $m
  9
  95
  95
  95
  95
  95
  95
  95
  95
  95
  95
  95
  95
  95
  95
  95
  95
  95
  95
  95
  95
  95
  95
  95
  95
  95
  95
  95
  95
  95
  95
Earnings before tax, $m
  12
  -65
  -58
  -49
  -40
  -30
  -19
  -6
  7
  21
  35
  52
  68
  85
  104
  123
  142
  163
  185
  207
  230
  254
  279
  305
  332
  360
  390
  420
  452
  485
  520
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  2
  6
  10
  14
  18
  23
  28
  33
  38
  44
  50
  56
  62
  69
  75
  82
  90
  97
  105
  113
  122
  131
  140
Net income, $m
  12
  -65
  -58
  -49
  -40
  -30
  -19
  -6
  5
  15
  26
  38
  50
  62
  76
  90
  104
  119
  135
  151
  168
  186
  204
  223
  243
  263
  285
  307
  330
  354
  379

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  34
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,429
  -59
  -72
  -87
  -104
  -122
  -142
  -164
  -187
  -212
  -239
  -267
  -296
  -327
  -360
  -394
  -429
  -466
  -504
  -544
  -586
  -629
  -673
  -720
  -768
  -819
  -871
  -925
  -982
  -1,041
  -1,103
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,395
  -59
  -72
  -87
  -104
  -122
  -142
  -164
  -187
  -212
  -239
  -267
  -296
  -327
  -360
  -394
  -429
  -466
  -504
  -544
  -586
  -629
  -673
  -720
  -768
  -819
  -871
  -925
  -982
  -1,041
  -1,103
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.024
  -0.627
  -0.639
  -0.632
  -0.635
  -0.631
  -0.634
  -0.634
  -0.636
  -0.637
  -0.632
  -0.633
  -0.635
  -0.636
  -0.633
  -0.635
  -0.634
  -0.635
  -0.635
  -0.636
  -0.635
  -0.634
  -0.636
  -0.635
  -0.635
  -0.635
  -0.635
  -0.636
  -0.635
  -0.635
  -0.635
Average production assets, $m
  0
  2,060
  2,523
  3,046
  3,629
  4,272
  4,975
  5,737
  6,556
  7,432
  8,362
  9,345
  10,382
  11,469
  12,609
  13,799
  15,040
  16,332
  17,677
  19,076
  20,530
  22,040
  23,610
  25,242
  26,938
  28,701
  30,536
  32,446
  34,434
  36,505
  38,664
Working capital, $m
  0
  -2,098
  -2,569
  -3,101
  -3,695
  -4,350
  -5,066
  -5,841
  -6,675
  -7,566
  -8,513
  -9,515
  -10,570
  -11,678
  -12,837
  -14,049
  -15,313
  -16,629
  -17,998
  -19,422
  -20,902
  -22,440
  -24,039
  -25,700
  -27,427
  -29,222
  -31,090
  -33,035
  -35,059
  -37,168
  -39,366
Total debt, $m
  1,198
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
  1,767
Total liabilities, $m
  1,287
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total equity, $m
  142
  -59
  -72
  -87
  -104
  -122
  -142
  -164
  -187
  -212
  -239
  -267
  -296
  -327
  -360
  -394
  -429
  -466
  -504
  -544
  -586
  -629
  -673
  -720
  -768
  -819
  -871
  -925
  -982
  -1,041
  -1,103
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,429
  -59
  -72
  -87
  -104
  -122
  -142
  -164
  -187
  -212
  -239
  -267
  -296
  -327
  -360
  -394
  -429
  -466
  -504
  -544
  -586
  -629
  -673
  -720
  -768
  -819
  -871
  -925
  -982
  -1,041
  -1,103
Debt-to-equity ratio
  8.437
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.102
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  12
  -65
  -58
  -49
  -40
  -30
  -19
  -6
  5
  15
  26
  38
  50
  62
  76
  90
  104
  119
  135
  151
  168
  186
  204
  223
  243
  263
  285
  307
  330
  354
  379
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  207
  253
  305
  363
  428
  498
  574
  656
  744
  837
  935
  1,038
  1,147
  1,261
  1,380
  1,504
  1,633
  1,768
  1,908
  2,053
  2,204
  2,361
  2,524
  2,694
  2,870
  3,054
  3,245
  3,443
  3,651
  3,866
Funds from operations, $m
  5
  142
  195
  256
  323
  398
  479
  568
  661
  759
  863
  972
  1,088
  1,209
  1,337
  1,469
  1,608
  1,752
  1,902
  2,059
  2,221
  2,390
  2,565
  2,747
  2,936
  3,133
  3,338
  3,551
  3,773
  4,005
  4,246
Change in working capital, $m
  -15
  -411
  -471
  -532
  -594
  -655
  -716
  -776
  -834
  -891
  -947
  -1,002
  -1,055
  -1,108
  -1,160
  -1,212
  -1,264
  -1,316
  -1,369
  -1,424
  -1,480
  -1,538
  -1,598
  -1,661
  -1,727
  -1,796
  -1,868
  -1,944
  -2,024
  -2,109
  -2,198
Cash from operations, $m
  20
  553
  666
  788
  917
  1,053
  1,195
  1,343
  1,495
  1,650
  1,810
  1,974
  2,143
  2,317
  2,496
  2,681
  2,872
  3,068
  3,272
  3,483
  3,701
  3,928
  4,163
  4,408
  4,663
  4,929
  5,206
  5,496
  5,798
  6,114
  6,444
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -166
  -206
  -252
  -305
  -363
  -427
  -498
  -574
  -656
  -743
  -836
  -935
  -1,038
  -1,147
  -1,261
  -1,380
  -1,504
  -1,633
  -1,768
  -1,908
  -2,053
  -2,204
  -2,361
  -2,524
  -2,694
  -2,870
  -3,054
  -3,245
  -3,443
  -3,651
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -396
  -463
  -523
  -583
  -643
  -703
  -762
  -819
  -875
  -930
  -984
  -1,036
  -1,088
  -1,139
  -1,190
  -1,241
  -1,293
  -1,345
  -1,399
  -1,454
  -1,511
  -1,570
  -1,632
  -1,696
  -1,764
  -1,835
  -1,910
  -1,988
  -2,071
  -2,159
Cash from investing activities, $m
  14
  -562
  -669
  -775
  -888
  -1,006
  -1,130
  -1,260
  -1,393
  -1,531
  -1,673
  -1,820
  -1,971
  -2,126
  -2,286
  -2,451
  -2,621
  -2,797
  -2,978
  -3,167
  -3,362
  -3,564
  -3,774
  -3,993
  -4,220
  -4,458
  -4,705
  -4,964
  -5,233
  -5,514
  -5,810
Free cash flow, $m
  34
  -10
  -2
  13
  29
  47
  65
  84
  102
  119
  136
  154
  172
  191
  210
  230
  251
  272
  294
  316
  340
  364
  389
  416
  443
  472
  501
  532
  565
  599
  634
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -24
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  9
  -20
  -16
  -2
  13
  28
  45
  62
  79
  94
  110
  126
  143
  160
  178
  196
  215
  235
  255
  276
  298
  321
  345
  369
  395
  421
  449
  478
  508
  540
  573
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  3
  -54
  -44
  -34
  -23
  -11
  1
  15
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  47
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -27
  -44
  -34
  -11
  17
  46
  78
  102
  119
  136
  154
  172
  191
  210
  230
  251
  272
  294
  316
  340
  364
  389
  416
  443
  472
  501
  532
  565
  599
  634
Discount rate, %
 
  12.20
  12.81
  13.45
  14.12
  14.83
  15.57
  16.35
  17.17
  18.02
  18.93
  19.87
  20.87
  21.91
  23.00
  24.16
  25.36
  26.63
  27.96
  29.36
  30.83
  32.37
  33.99
  35.69
  37.47
  39.35
  41.31
  43.38
  45.55
  47.83
  50.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -24
  -35
  -24
  -6
  8
  19
  27
  29
  27
  24
  21
  18
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT is a real estate investment trust. The Company conducts its business through its subsidiaries, EARN OP GP LLC and Ellington Residential Mortgage LP (the Operating Partnership). It specializes in acquiring, investing in and managing residential mortgage- and real estate-related assets. It constructs and managing a portfolio consisting of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the United States Government agency or the United States Government-sponsored entity (Agency RMBS) and, to a lesser extent, RMBS backed by prime jumbo, Alternative A-paper manufactured housing, and subprime residential mortgage loans (non-Agency RMBS). Its Agency RMBS include residential mortgage pass-through certificates, collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs) and to-be-announced mortgage pass-through certificates (TBAs). Its non-agency RMBS include investment grade and non-investment grade classes.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT (EARN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 8.4
Price to Sales 3
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 5.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -17.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 843.7%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Return On Total Capital 0.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Return On Equity 8.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 61.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 73.5%
EBITDA Margin 61.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.4%
Operating Margin 58.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 70.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 35.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.1%
Net Profit Margin 35.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 133.3%

EARN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EARN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $30 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EARN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 24.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.2%, whose default value for EARN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EARN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 13.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $2 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EARN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EARN stock is equal to 0.7%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EARN are equal to 5521%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EARN is equal to -5621.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 13 million for Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Ellington Residential: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-03-18 07:37PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ellington Residential posts 3Q profit   [Nov-06-17 05:38AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ellington Residential posts 2Q profit   [Aug-02-17 12:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for June 30th   [Jun-30-17 09:34AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for June 1st   [Jun-01-17 09:05AM  Zacks]
▶ Ellington Residential posts 1Q profit   [May-02-17 07:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ellington Residential posts 4Q profit   [05:00AM  Associated Press]
▶ Here is What Hedge Funds Think About Willbros Group Inc (WG)   [Dec-15-16 06:04AM  Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of EARN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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