Intrinsic value of Brinker International - EAT

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$44.19

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$44.19

 
Intrinsic value

$15.19

 
Up/down potential

-66%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EAT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.49
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,257
  3,322
  3,399
  3,486
  3,584
  3,693
  3,812
  3,942
  4,082
  4,234
  4,396
  4,570
  4,755
  4,953
  5,163
  5,385
  5,621
  5,871
  6,135
  6,415
  6,709
  7,020
  7,348
  7,694
  8,058
  8,442
  8,846
  9,271
  9,718
  10,189
  10,684
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,980
  3,048
  3,126
  3,213
  3,310
  3,416
  3,532
  3,658
  3,793
  3,938
  4,076
  4,242
  4,418
  4,605
  4,804
  5,014
  5,237
  5,473
  5,722
  5,984
  6,262
  6,554
  6,863
  7,188
  7,530
  7,890
  8,269
  8,668
  9,088
  9,530
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,940
  2,980
  3,048
  3,126
  3,213
  3,310
  3,416
  3,532
  3,658
  3,793
  3,938
  4,076
  4,242
  4,418
  4,605
  4,804
  5,014
  5,237
  5,473
  5,722
  5,984
  6,262
  6,554
  6,863
  7,188
  7,530
  7,890
  8,269
  8,668
  9,088
  9,530
Operating income, $m
  317
  343
  351
  360
  371
  383
  395
  409
  425
  441
  459
  494
  514
  535
  558
  582
  607
  634
  663
  693
  725
  758
  794
  831
  871
  912
  956
  1,002
  1,050
  1,101
  1,154
EBITDA, $m
  473
  498
  509
  522
  537
  553
  571
  591
  612
  634
  659
  685
  712
  742
  774
  807
  842
  880
  919
  961
  1,005
  1,052
  1,101
  1,153
  1,207
  1,265
  1,325
  1,389
  1,456
  1,527
  1,601
Interest expense (income), $m
  29
  39
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  78
  82
  87
  92
  98
  103
  109
  115
  122
Earnings before tax, $m
  286
  304
  324
  333
  342
  353
  364
  376
  390
  404
  420
  452
  470
  489
  509
  530
  552
  576
  601
  628
  656
  685
  716
  749
  783
  820
  858
  898
  941
  985
  1,032
Tax expense, $m
  85
  82
  88
  90
  92
  95
  98
  102
  105
  109
  113
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  156
  162
  169
  177
  185
  193
  202
  212
  221
  232
  243
  254
  266
  279
Net income, $m
  201
  222
  237
  243
  250
  257
  266
  275
  284
  295
  306
  330
  343
  357
  371
  387
  403
  420
  439
  458
  479
  500
  523
  547
  572
  598
  626
  656
  687
  719
  754

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  31
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,469
  1,467
  1,500
  1,539
  1,582
  1,630
  1,683
  1,740
  1,802
  1,869
  1,941
  2,018
  2,099
  2,187
  2,279
  2,378
  2,482
  2,592
  2,709
  2,832
  2,962
  3,099
  3,244
  3,397
  3,558
  3,727
  3,905
  4,093
  4,291
  4,498
  4,717
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,438
  1,467
  1,500
  1,539
  1,582
  1,630
  1,683
  1,740
  1,802
  1,869
  1,941
  2,018
  2,099
  2,187
  2,279
  2,378
  2,482
  2,592
  2,709
  2,832
  2,962
  3,099
  3,244
  3,397
  3,558
  3,727
  3,905
  4,093
  4,291
  4,498
  4,717
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.265
  2.264
  2.266
  2.265
  2.265
  2.266
  2.265
  2.266
  2.265
  2.265
  2.265
  2.265
  2.265
  2.265
  2.265
  2.265
  2.265
  2.265
  2.265
  2.265
  2.265
  2.265
  2.265
  2.265
  2.265
  2.265
  2.265
  2.265
  2.265
  2.265
  2.265
Average production assets, $m
  1,061
  1,083
  1,108
  1,136
  1,168
  1,204
  1,243
  1,285
  1,331
  1,380
  1,433
  1,490
  1,550
  1,615
  1,683
  1,756
  1,833
  1,914
  2,000
  2,091
  2,187
  2,289
  2,396
  2,508
  2,627
  2,752
  2,884
  3,022
  3,168
  3,322
  3,483
Working capital, $m
  -255
  -289
  -296
  -303
  -312
  -321
  -332
  -343
  -355
  -368
  -382
  -398
  -414
  -431
  -449
  -469
  -489
  -511
  -534
  -558
  -584
  -611
  -639
  -669
  -701
  -734
  -770
  -807
  -845
  -886
  -929
Total debt, $m
  1,114
  752
  782
  817
  856
  899
  947
  998
  1,054
  1,114
  1,179
  1,248
  1,322
  1,400
  1,483
  1,572
  1,666
  1,765
  1,870
  1,981
  2,098
  2,221
  2,352
  2,489
  2,634
  2,786
  2,947
  3,116
  3,294
  3,481
  3,677
Total liabilities, $m
  1,683
  1,320
  1,350
  1,385
  1,424
  1,467
  1,515
  1,566
  1,622
  1,682
  1,747
  1,816
  1,890
  1,968
  2,051
  2,140
  2,234
  2,333
  2,438
  2,549
  2,666
  2,789
  2,920
  3,057
  3,202
  3,354
  3,515
  3,684
  3,862
  4,049
  4,245
Total equity, $m
  -213
  147
  150
  154
  158
  163
  168
  174
  180
  187
  194
  202
  210
  219
  228
  238
  248
  259
  271
  283
  296
  310
  324
  340
  356
  373
  391
  409
  429
  450
  472
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,470
  1,467
  1,500
  1,539
  1,582
  1,630
  1,683
  1,740
  1,802
  1,869
  1,941
  2,018
  2,100
  2,187
  2,279
  2,378
  2,482
  2,592
  2,709
  2,832
  2,962
  3,099
  3,244
  3,397
  3,558
  3,727
  3,906
  4,093
  4,291
  4,499
  4,717
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -5.230
  5.130
  5.210
  5.310
  5.410
  5.520
  5.620
  5.740
  5.850
  5.960
  6.070
  6.180
  6.290
  6.400
  6.510
  6.610
  6.710
  6.810
  6.900
  6.990
  7.080
  7.170
  7.250
  7.330
  7.400
  7.480
  7.550
  7.610
  7.680
  7.740
  7.800
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.170
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  201
  222
  237
  243
  250
  257
  266
  275
  284
  295
  306
  330
  343
  357
  371
  387
  403
  420
  439
  458
  479
  500
  523
  547
  572
  598
  626
  656
  687
  719
  754
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  156
  155
  158
  162
  166
  171
  176
  181
  187
  193
  200
  191
  199
  207
  216
  225
  235
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
  307
  322
  337
  353
  370
  387
  406
  426
  447
Funds from operations, $m
  377
  377
  395
  405
  416
  428
  441
  456
  471
  488
  506
  521
  542
  564
  587
  612
  638
  666
  695
  726
  759
  793
  830
  868
  909
  951
  996
  1,043
  1,093
  1,145
  1,200
Change in working capital, $m
  -18
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
Cash from operations, $m
  395
  395
  402
  413
  425
  438
  452
  467
  484
  501
  521
  536
  558
  581
  605
  631
  659
  688
  718
  750
  785
  821
  858
  898
  940
  985
  1,031
  1,080
  1,132
  1,186
  1,243
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -136
  -139
  -142
  -146
  -150
  -154
  -159
  -165
  -171
  -177
  -184
  -191
  -199
  -207
  -216
  -225
  -235
  -245
  -256
  -268
  -280
  -293
  -307
  -322
  -337
  -353
  -370
  -387
  -406
  -426
New CAPEX, $m
  -113
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -214
  -158
  -164
  -170
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -201
  -211
  -220
  -230
  -241
  -251
  -263
  -275
  -289
  -302
  -316
  -331
  -347
  -364
  -381
  -400
  -420
  -441
  -462
  -485
  -509
  -533
  -559
  -587
Free cash flow, $m
  181
  237
  238
  242
  247
  252
  259
  266
  273
  282
  291
  296
  307
  318
  330
  343
  357
  371
  387
  403
  420
  439
  458
  479
  500
  523
  547
  572
  599
  627
  656
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  143
  -358
  30
  35
  39
  43
  47
  52
  56
  60
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  88
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  130
  137
  145
  152
  160
  169
  178
  187
  197
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -279
  481
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -130
  123
  30
  35
  39
  43
  47
  52
  56
  60
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  88
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  130
  137
  145
  152
  160
  169
  178
  187
  197
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  50
  -121
  269
  277
  286
  296
  306
  317
  329
  342
  355
  365
  380
  396
  413
  431
  450
  470
  492
  514
  538
  562
  588
  616
  645
  675
  707
  741
  776
  814
  853
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  135
  -387
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  27
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  265
  273
  281
  291
  301
  311
  323
  335
  348
  357
  372
  388
  404
  422
  440
  459
  480
  502
  524
  549
  574
  601
  629
  658
  689
  722
  757
  793
  831
Discount rate, %
 
  11.10
  11.66
  12.24
  12.85
  13.49
  14.17
  14.88
  15.62
  16.40
  17.22
  18.08
  18.98
  19.93
  20.93
  21.98
  23.08
  24.23
  25.44
  26.71
  28.05
  29.45
  30.92
  32.47
  34.09
  35.80
  37.59
  39.47
  41.44
  43.51
  45.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  213
  193
  174
  154
  136
  118
  101
  85
  71
  57
  46
  36
  28
  21
  16
  11
  8
  6
  4
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Brinker International, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns, develops, operates, and franchises casual dining restaurants worldwide. As of June 29, 2016, it had 1,660 company-owned and franchised restaurants comprising 1,609 restaurants under the Chili's Grill & Bar brand name; and 51 restaurants under the Maggiano's Little Italy brand name. The company was founded in 1975 and is based in Dallas, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Brinker International (EAT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12.2
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book -11.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -19.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 8
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -521.1%
Total Debt to Equity -523%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 15.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Return On Total Capital 22.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.1%
Return On Equity -138.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -873.2%
Asset Turnover 2.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 19%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
EBITDA Margin 14.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.2%
Operating Margin 9.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Net Profit Margin 6.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Effective Tax Rate 29.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.7%
Payout Ratio 36.8%

EAT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EAT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3257 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Brinker International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Brinker International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EAT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.1%, whose default value for EAT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Brinker International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Brinker International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EAT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EAT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Brinker International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Brinker International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EAT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EAT are equal to 32.6%.

Life of production assets of 7.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Brinker International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EAT is equal to -8.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-213 million for Brinker International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 48.908 million for Brinker International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Brinker International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.2 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Brinker International tops 3Q profit forecasts   [07:42AM  Associated Press]
▶ After Panera, What Restaurants Will Be Bought Next?   [Apr-07-17 11:06AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Cramer taste-tests two popular restaurant chains   [Apr-06-17 08:04PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Brinker International Could Bite Shorts on Possible Upturn   [Apr-05-17 09:38AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ How Darden is rivaling Brinker with its purchase of Cheddar's   [02:15AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Why Automation Could Soon Be Coming to a Restaurant Near You   [Mar-19-17 02:50PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Brinker International Board Declares Common Dividend   [Feb-09-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ IIROC Trade Resumption - EAT   [10:49AM  PR Newswire]
▶ IIROC Trading Halt - EAT   [09:35AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Chili's lays off 80 workers, plans to restructure   [Jan-23-17 03:30PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Three Forgotten Stocks Poised To Surge In 2017   [Jan-05-17 08:24AM  at Forbes]
Stock chart of EAT Financial statements of EAT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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