Intrinsic value of Ennis - EBF

Previous Close

$18.45

  Intrinsic Value

$20.48

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+11%

  Value-price divergence*

-52%

Previous close

$18.45

 
Intrinsic value

$20.48

 
Up/down potential

+11%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

-52%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EBF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -7.51
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  357
  364
  373
  382
  393
  405
  418
  432
  447
  464
  482
  501
  521
  543
  566
  590
  616
  644
  672
  703
  735
  769
  805
  843
  883
  925
  970
  1,016
  1,065
  1,117
  1,171
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  238
  244
  250
  257
  264
  272
  281
  291
  302
  313
  318
  331
  345
  359
  375
  391
  409
  427
  447
  467
  489
  512
  536
  561
  588
  616
  645
  677
  709
  744
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  86
  88
  90
  93
  95
  97
  100
  102
  105
  108
  110
  113
  116
  119
  122
  125
  128
  131
  134
  138
  141
  145
  148
  152
  156
  160
  164
  168
  172
  176
Total operating expenses, $m
  316
  324
  332
  340
  350
  359
  369
  381
  393
  407
  421
  428
  444
  461
  478
  497
  516
  537
  558
  581
  605
  630
  657
  684
  713
  744
  776
  809
  845
  881
  920
Operating income, $m
  41
  40
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  73
  77
  82
  88
  94
  100
  107
  114
  122
  131
  140
  149
  159
  170
  182
  194
  207
  221
  236
  251
EBITDA, $m
  54
  55
  56
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  107
  114
  121
  129
  138
  147
  157
  167
  178
  190
  202
  215
  229
  244
  260
  277
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Earnings before tax, $m
  40
  39
  39
  41
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  56
  59
  71
  75
  80
  85
  91
  97
  104
  111
  119
  127
  136
  145
  155
  166
  177
  189
  202
  215
  229
  245
Tax expense, $m
  14
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
Net income, $m
  2
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  52
  55
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  81
  87
  93
  99
  106
  113
  121
  129
  138
  147
  157
  168
  179

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  80
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  324
  249
  255
  261
  269
  277
  286
  295
  306
  317
  329
  342
  356
  371
  387
  403
  421
  440
  460
  481
  503
  526
  551
  576
  604
  632
  663
  695
  728
  763
  800
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  244
  249
  255
  261
  269
  277
  286
  295
  306
  317
  329
  342
  356
  371
  387
  403
  421
  440
  460
  481
  503
  526
  551
  576
  604
  632
  663
  695
  728
  763
  800
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.463
  1.462
  1.463
  1.464
  1.461
  1.462
  1.462
  1.464
  1.461
  1.464
  1.465
  1.465
  1.463
  1.464
  1.463
  1.464
  1.463
  1.464
  1.461
  1.462
  1.461
  1.462
  1.461
  1.464
  1.462
  1.464
  1.463
  1.462
  1.463
  1.464
  1.464
Average production assets, $m
  104
  106
  108
  111
  114
  117
  121
  125
  130
  135
  140
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  195
  204
  213
  223
  234
  245
  256
  268
  281
  295
  309
  324
  340
Working capital, $m
  119
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
Total debt, $m
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  64
  68
  73
  78
  83
  89
  94
  101
  107
  114
  122
  129
  138
  146
  155
  165
  175
  185
  196
Total liabilities, $m
  73
  74
  76
  78
  80
  83
  85
  88
  91
  95
  98
  102
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  137
  144
  150
  157
  165
  172
  181
  189
  198
  208
  218
  228
  239
Total equity, $m
  251
  174
  178
  183
  188
  194
  200
  207
  214
  222
  231
  240
  250
  260
  271
  283
  295
  308
  322
  337
  352
  369
  386
  404
  423
  443
  465
  487
  510
  535
  561
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  324
  248
  254
  261
  268
  277
  285
  295
  305
  317
  329
  342
  357
  371
  387
  404
  421
  440
  459
  481
  502
  526
  551
  576
  604
  632
  663
  695
  728
  763
  800
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.120
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  2
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  52
  55
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  81
  87
  93
  99
  106
  113
  121
  129
  138
  147
  157
  168
  179
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  13
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
Funds from operations, $m
  60
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  63
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  102
  109
  116
  124
  132
  140
  150
  159
  170
  181
  192
  204
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Cash from operations, $m
  59
  43
  43
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  99
  105
  112
  120
  128
  136
  145
  154
  165
  175
  186
  198
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
Cash from investing activities, $m
  86
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -41
Free cash flow, $m
  145
  33
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  44
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  81
  86
  93
  99
  106
  113
  121
  130
  139
  148
  158
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -10
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -15
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  130
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  82
  87
  93
  100
  107
  114
  122
  130
  139
  149
  159
  169
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  48
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  80
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  111
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  39
  39
  42
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  67
  72
  77
  83
  89
  95
  102
  109
  117
  125
  134
  143
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  106
  28
  27
  25
  25
  24
  23
  22
  21
  20
  19
  18
  17
  16
  15
  14
  13
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Ennis, Inc. produces and sells business forms and other business products in the United States. The company’s Print segment designs, manufactures, and sells business forms and other printed business products, such as snap sets, continuous forms, laser cut sheets, tags, labels, envelopes, integrated products, jumbo rolls and pressure sensitive products under the Ennis, Royal Business Forms, Block Graphics, Specialized Printed Forms, 360º Custom Labels, ColorWorx, Enfusion, Uncompromised Check Solutions, VersaSeal, Witt Printing, B&D Litho, Genforms, PrintGraphics, Calibrated Forms, PrintXcel, Printegra, and Curtis Business Forms, Falcon Business Forms, Forms Manufacturers, Mutual Graphics, TRI-C Business Forms, and Hoosier Data Forms brand names. This segment also provides point of purchase advertising for large franchise and fast food chains, as well as kitting and fulfillment under the Adams McClure; presentation folders and document folders under the Admore and Folder Express; custom printed labels, custom, and stock tags products under Ennis Tag & Label; and custom and stock tags and labels under the Atlas Tag & Label brand names. In addition, it offers custom and imprinted envelopes under the Trade Envelopes and Block Graphics, Wisco, and National Imprint Corporation; and financial and security documents under the Northstar and General Financial Supply brand names. This segment sells its products to large banking organizations through private printers and independent distributors. The company’s Apparel segment manufactures and sells knitted activewear, including T-shirts, tank tops, and fleece under the AAA, Alstyle Apparel and Activewear, and Murina brand names. This segment sells its products to screen printers, embellishers, retailers, and mass marketers through sales representatives in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The company was formerly known as Ennis Business Forms, Inc. Ennis, Inc. was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in Midlothian, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ennis (EBF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 234.4
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -25%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -9.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 12%
Total Debt to Equity 12%
Interest Coverage 41
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.2%
Return On Total Capital 0.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.8%
EBITDA Margin 15.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.6%
Operating Margin 11.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Net Profit Margin 0.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.7%
Effective Tax Rate 35%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.4%
Payout Ratio 2850%

EBF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EBF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $357 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ennis. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Ennis. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EBF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EBF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ennis, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ennis.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EBF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 65.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $84 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EBF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Ennis.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ennis. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EBF stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EBF are equal to 29%.

Life of production assets of 13.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ennis operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EBF is equal to 10.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $251 million for Ennis - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24.597 million for Ennis is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ennis at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Ennis, Inc. : August 11, 2017   [Aug-11-17 05:20PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ennis, Inc. : July 31, 2017   [Jul-31-17 04:37PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ennis, Inc. : July 12, 2017   [Jul-12-17 02:27PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Ennis posts 1Q profit   [Jun-26-17 09:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ennis, Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:EBF) : June 20, 2017   [Jun-20-17 03:47PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Ennis, Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend   [06:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ennis, Inc. : May 25, 2017   [May-25-17 12:38PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Ennis posts 4Q profit   [Apr-25-17 06:24AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ennis, Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:EBF) : April 17, 2017   [Apr-17-17 01:26PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Ennis, Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-27-17 12:02PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ennis, Inc. : January 12, 2017   [Jan-12-17 01:59PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Ennis posts 3Q profit   [Dec-20-16 05:47PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ennis, Inc. (EBF): Are Hedge Funds Right About This Stock?   [Dec-09-16 03:50AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Ennis, Inc. Acquires Assets of Major Business Systems   [Mar-22-16 11:07AM  at noodls]
▶ Ennis Acquires Assets of Major Business Systems   [Mar-21-16 07:34PM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of EBF Financial statements of EBF
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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