Intrinsic value of Ebix - EBIX

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$61.05

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$61.05

 
Intrinsic value

$89.43

 
Up/down potential

+46%

 
Rating

buy

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EBIX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.45
  14.30
  13.37
  12.53
  11.78
  11.10
  10.49
  9.94
  9.45
  9.00
  8.60
  8.24
  7.92
  7.63
  7.36
  7.13
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.82
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
Revenue, $m
  298
  341
  386
  435
  486
  540
  596
  656
  718
  782
  849
  919
  992
  1,068
  1,147
  1,228
  1,313
  1,401
  1,493
  1,589
  1,688
  1,792
  1,899
  2,012
  2,129
  2,251
  2,379
  2,512
  2,651
  2,797
  2,949
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  211
  233
  257
  282
  309
  336
  365
  396
  427
  460
  451
  486
  523
  562
  602
  643
  687
  732
  779
  827
  878
  931
  986
  1,043
  1,103
  1,166
  1,231
  1,299
  1,370
  1,445
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
Total operating expenses, $m
  198
  219
  241
  266
  291
  318
  345
  375
  406
  437
  470
  461
  497
  534
  573
  614
  655
  699
  744
  792
  840
  891
  945
  1,000
  1,057
  1,118
  1,181
  1,247
  1,315
  1,386
  1,462
Operating income, $m
  100
  121
  144
  169
  195
  222
  251
  281
  312
  345
  379
  458
  495
  534
  573
  615
  658
  703
  749
  797
  848
  900
  955
  1,012
  1,071
  1,133
  1,198
  1,266
  1,336
  1,410
  1,487
EBITDA, $m
  111
  170
  194
  219
  245
  273
  303
  333
  366
  399
  434
  470
  508
  548
  588
  631
  675
  721
  769
  818
  870
  924
  980
  1,038
  1,099
  1,163
  1,229
  1,299
  1,371
  1,447
  1,526
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  53
  56
  60
  64
  69
  73
  78
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
Earnings before tax, $m
  96
  112
  134
  156
  180
  205
  231
  259
  288
  318
  349
  426
  460
  495
  531
  569
  609
  650
  693
  737
  783
  832
  882
  934
  989
  1,046
  1,105
  1,167
  1,232
  1,300
  1,371
Tax expense, $m
  2
  30
  36
  42
  49
  55
  62
  70
  78
  86
  94
  115
  124
  134
  143
  154
  164
  175
  187
  199
  212
  225
  238
  252
  267
  282
  298
  315
  333
  351
  370
Net income, $m
  94
  82
  97
  114
  131
  150
  169
  189
  210
  232
  255
  311
  335
  361
  388
  416
  444
  474
  506
  538
  572
  607
  644
  682
  722
  763
  807
  852
  900
  949
  1,001

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  117
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  804
  785
  890
  1,001
  1,119
  1,243
  1,374
  1,511
  1,653
  1,802
  1,957
  2,118
  2,286
  2,461
  2,642
  2,830
  3,026
  3,229
  3,441
  3,661
  3,890
  4,128
  4,377
  4,636
  4,906
  5,187
  5,481
  5,788
  6,109
  6,444
  6,795
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  687
  785
  890
  1,001
  1,119
  1,243
  1,374
  1,511
  1,653
  1,802
  1,957
  2,118
  2,286
  2,461
  2,642
  2,830
  3,026
  3,229
  3,441
  3,661
  3,890
  4,128
  4,377
  4,636
  4,906
  5,187
  5,481
  5,788
  6,109
  6,444
  6,795
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.435
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
Average production assets, $m
  118
  134
  152
  171
  191
  213
  235
  258
  283
  308
  335
  362
  391
  421
  452
  484
  517
  552
  588
  626
  665
  706
  748
  793
  839
  887
  937
  990
  1,045
  1,102
  1,162
Working capital, $m
  120
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  90
  95
  101
  106
  113
  119
  126
  133
  140
  147
Total debt, $m
  272
  312
  367
  427
  489
  555
  625
  697
  773
  852
  934
  1,020
  1,109
  1,202
  1,298
  1,398
  1,502
  1,610
  1,722
  1,839
  1,960
  2,087
  2,219
  2,357
  2,500
  2,649
  2,806
  2,969
  3,139
  3,317
  3,503
Total liabilities, $m
  377
  417
  472
  532
  594
  660
  730
  802
  878
  957
  1,039
  1,125
  1,214
  1,307
  1,403
  1,503
  1,607
  1,715
  1,827
  1,944
  2,065
  2,192
  2,324
  2,462
  2,605
  2,754
  2,911
  3,074
  3,244
  3,422
  3,608
Total equity, $m
  427
  368
  417
  470
  525
  583
  644
  708
  775
  845
  918
  994
  1,072
  1,154
  1,239
  1,327
  1,419
  1,514
  1,614
  1,717
  1,824
  1,936
  2,053
  2,174
  2,301
  2,433
  2,571
  2,715
  2,865
  3,022
  3,187
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  804
  785
  889
  1,002
  1,119
  1,243
  1,374
  1,510
  1,653
  1,802
  1,957
  2,119
  2,286
  2,461
  2,642
  2,830
  3,026
  3,229
  3,441
  3,661
  3,889
  4,128
  4,377
  4,636
  4,906
  5,187
  5,482
  5,789
  6,109
  6,444
  6,795
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.637
  0.850
  0.880
  0.910
  0.930
  0.950
  0.970
  0.980
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.030
  1.030
  1.040
  1.050
  1.050
  1.060
  1.060
  1.070
  1.070
  1.070
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.090
  1.090
  1.090
  1.090
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  94
  82
  97
  114
  131
  150
  169
  189
  210
  232
  255
  311
  335
  361
  388
  416
  444
  474
  506
  538
  572
  607
  644
  682
  722
  763
  807
  852
  900
  949
  1,001
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  11
  49
  49
  50
  50
  51
  52
  53
  54
  54
  55
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
Funds from operations, $m
  66
  131
  147
  164
  182
  201
  221
  242
  264
  286
  310
  323
  349
  375
  403
  432
  462
  493
  525
  559
  594
  631
  669
  708
  750
  793
  838
  885
  934
  986
  1,040
Change in working capital, $m
  -18
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
Cash from operations, $m
  84
  126
  144
  161
  179
  198
  218
  239
  260
  283
  307
  319
  345
  371
  399
  428
  457
  488
  521
  554
  589
  625
  663
  703
  744
  787
  832
  879
  927
  979
  1,032
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
New CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
Free cash flow, $m
  63
  105
  122
  137
  153
  170
  189
  208
  227
  248
  270
  281
  304
  329
  354
  380
  408
  436
  466
  497
  529
  563
  597
  634
  671
  711
  752
  795
  840
  886
  935
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  66
  52
  56
  59
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  150
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -59
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  6
  52
  56
  59
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  150
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  67
  157
  178
  196
  216
  236
  258
  280
  303
  327
  352
  366
  393
  421
  450
  480
  512
  544
  578
  614
  651
  689
  729
  771
  815
  860
  908
  958
  1,010
  1,064
  1,121
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -18
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -121
  -127
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -164
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  105
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  216
  128
  144
  161
  178
  197
  216
  236
  257
  280
  291
  315
  339
  365
  392
  420
  449
  479
  511
  543
  577
  613
  650
  688
  728
  770
  814
  859
  907
  957
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  207
  118
  125
  132
  138
  143
  146
  148
  148
  147
  138
  134
  129
  123
  115
  107
  98
  88
  79
  69
  60
  51
  43
  35
  28
  22
  17
  13
  10
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Ebix, Inc. provides on-demand software and e-commerce solutions for the insurance industry. The company operates data exchanges, which connect various entities within the insurance markets and enables the participant to carry and process data from one end to another in the areas of life insurance, annuities, employee health benefits, risk management, workers compensation, and property and casualty (P&C) insurance. It also focuses in the area of broker systems on designing and deploying back-end systems consisting of eGlobal for multinational P&C insurance brokers; WinBeat for P&C brokers in the Australian and New Zealand markets; and EbixASP, a system for the P&C insurance brokers in the United States. In addition, the company offers business process outsourcing services, which include domain intensive project management, and time and material consulting engagements, as well as the provision of claims adjudication and settlement, call center, and back office support. Further, it offers risk compliance solution services, such as insurance certificate origination, certificate tracking, claims adjudication call center, and back office support; and carrier systems, such as Ebix Advantage and Ebix Advantageweb targeted at small, medium, and large P&C carriers in the United States and internationally that operate in the personal, commercial, and specialty line areas of insurance. Additionally, the company offers software development, customization, and consulting services to various companies in the insurance industry, such as carriers, brokers, exchanges, and standard making bodies. The company was formerly known as Delphi Systems, Inc. and changed its name to Ebix, Inc. in December 2003. Ebix, Inc. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Johns Creek, Georgia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ebix (EBIX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.8
Price to Sales 6.6
Price to Book 4.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 23.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 26.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -41.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 58.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 10
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 60.9%
Total Debt to Equity 63.7%
Interest Coverage 15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Return On Total Capital 14.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.5%
Return On Equity 22.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.9%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 71.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 74.1%
EBITDA Margin 38.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.4%
Operating Margin 33.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 32.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.7%
Net Profit Margin 31.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.5%
Effective Tax Rate 2.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Payout Ratio 10.6%

EBIX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EBIX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $298 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ebix. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ebix. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EBIX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EBIX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ebix, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ebix.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EBIX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 63.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $8 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EBIX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Ebix.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ebix. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EBIX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EBIX are equal to 39.4%.

Life of production assets of 49 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ebix operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EBIX is equal to 5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $427 million for Ebix - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 31.673 million for Ebix is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ebix at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.


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Stock chart of EBIX Financial statements of EBIX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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