Intrinsic value of Ebix - EBIX

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$56.55

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EBIX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.45
  11.30
  10.67
  10.10
  9.59
  9.13
  8.72
  8.35
  8.01
  7.71
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
Revenue, $m
  298
  332
  367
  404
  443
  483
  526
  569
  615
  662
  712
  763
  816
  872
  929
  989
  1,051
  1,116
  1,184
  1,254
  1,327
  1,404
  1,484
  1,567
  1,654
  1,745
  1,840
  1,940
  2,044
  2,153
  2,267
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  207
  224
  242
  261
  281
  302
  323
  345
  369
  393
  374
  400
  427
  455
  485
  515
  547
  580
  614
  650
  688
  727
  768
  811
  855
  902
  951
  1,002
  1,055
  1,111
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
Total operating expenses, $m
  198
  215
  232
  251
  270
  290
  311
  333
  355
  379
  403
  384
  411
  438
  466
  497
  527
  559
  592
  627
  663
  701
  741
  782
  825
  870
  917
  967
  1,018
  1,071
  1,128
Operating income, $m
  100
  117
  135
  153
  173
  193
  215
  237
  260
  284
  309
  379
  405
  433
  463
  493
  524
  557
  591
  627
  664
  702
  743
  785
  829
  875
  923
  974
  1,026
  1,082
  1,139
EBITDA, $m
  111
  165
  184
  203
  223
  244
  266
  288
  312
  337
  362
  389
  416
  445
  475
  506
  538
  572
  607
  643
  681
  721
  762
  806
  851
  898
  948
  999
  1,053
  1,110
  1,169
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
Earnings before tax, $m
  96
  108
  124
  141
  159
  178
  198
  218
  239
  261
  284
  352
  376
  402
  429
  457
  486
  516
  547
  580
  614
  649
  686
  725
  766
  808
  852
  899
  947
  998
  1,051
Tax expense, $m
  2
  29
  34
  38
  43
  48
  53
  59
  65
  70
  77
  95
  102
  109
  116
  123
  131
  139
  148
  157
  166
  175
  185
  196
  207
  218
  230
  243
  256
  269
  284
Net income, $m
  94
  79
  91
  103
  116
  130
  144
  159
  175
  191
  207
  257
  275
  294
  313
  333
  354
  376
  399
  423
  448
  474
  501
  529
  559
  590
  622
  656
  691
  728
  767

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  117
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  804
  764
  846
  931
  1,021
  1,114
  1,211
  1,312
  1,417
  1,526
  1,640
  1,758
  1,881
  2,008
  2,141
  2,279
  2,422
  2,571
  2,727
  2,889
  3,058
  3,235
  3,419
  3,611
  3,811
  4,021
  4,240
  4,470
  4,709
  4,961
  5,223
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  687
  764
  846
  931
  1,021
  1,114
  1,211
  1,312
  1,417
  1,526
  1,640
  1,758
  1,881
  2,008
  2,141
  2,279
  2,422
  2,571
  2,727
  2,889
  3,058
  3,235
  3,419
  3,611
  3,811
  4,021
  4,240
  4,470
  4,709
  4,961
  5,223
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.434
  0.435
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
Average production assets, $m
  118
  131
  145
  159
  175
  190
  207
  224
  242
  261
  280
  301
  322
  343
  366
  390
  414
  440
  466
  494
  523
  553
  585
  617
  652
  688
  725
  764
  805
  848
  893
Working capital, $m
  120
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  46
  49
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  113
Total debt, $m
  272
  301
  344
  389
  437
  486
  538
  592
  647
  706
  766
  828
  894
  961
  1,032
  1,105
  1,181
  1,260
  1,343
  1,429
  1,519
  1,613
  1,710
  1,812
  1,919
  2,030
  2,147
  2,268
  2,396
  2,529
  2,669
Total liabilities, $m
  377
  406
  449
  494
  542
  591
  643
  697
  752
  811
  871
  933
  999
  1,066
  1,137
  1,210
  1,286
  1,365
  1,448
  1,534
  1,624
  1,718
  1,815
  1,917
  2,024
  2,135
  2,252
  2,373
  2,501
  2,634
  2,774
Total equity, $m
  427
  358
  397
  437
  479
  522
  568
  615
  665
  716
  769
  824
  882
  942
  1,004
  1,069
  1,136
  1,206
  1,279
  1,355
  1,434
  1,517
  1,603
  1,693
  1,788
  1,886
  1,989
  2,096
  2,209
  2,326
  2,450
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  804
  764
  846
  931
  1,021
  1,113
  1,211
  1,312
  1,417
  1,527
  1,640
  1,757
  1,881
  2,008
  2,141
  2,279
  2,422
  2,571
  2,727
  2,889
  3,058
  3,235
  3,418
  3,610
  3,812
  4,021
  4,241
  4,469
  4,710
  4,960
  5,224
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.637
  0.840
  0.870
  0.890
  0.910
  0.930
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.030
  1.030
  1.040
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.060
  1.060
  1.070
  1.070
  1.070
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.090
  1.090
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  94
  79
  91
  103
  116
  130
  144
  159
  175
  191
  207
  257
  275
  294
  313
  333
  354
  376
  399
  423
  448
  474
  501
  529
  559
  590
  622
  656
  691
  728
  767
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  11
  48
  49
  49
  50
  50
  51
  52
  52
  53
  53
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
Funds from operations, $m
  66
  127
  140
  153
  166
  180
  195
  211
  227
  243
  261
  267
  286
  305
  325
  346
  368
  391
  415
  440
  465
  492
  521
  550
  581
  613
  646
  681
  718
  757
  797
Change in working capital, $m
  -18
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
Cash from operations, $m
  84
  125
  138
  151
  164
  178
  193
  208
  224
  241
  258
  264
  283
  302
  322
  343
  365
  388
  411
  436
  462
  489
  517
  546
  576
  608
  642
  676
  713
  751
  791
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
New CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -21
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
Free cash flow, $m
  63
  108
  119
  131
  144
  157
  170
  184
  199
  214
  230
  235
  252
  270
  288
  308
  328
  348
  370
  393
  416
  441
  467
  493
  521
  551
  581
  613
  646
  681
  718
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  66
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  140
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -59
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  6
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  140
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  67
  149
  163
  177
  191
  206
  222
  238
  255
  272
  290
  297
  317
  337
  359
  381
  404
  428
  453
  479
  506
  535
  564
  595
  628
  662
  698
  735
  774
  815
  857
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -18
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -112
  -118
  -123
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  105
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  218
  125
  137
  149
  162
  176
  191
  205
  221
  237
  242
  260
  278
  296
  316
  337
  358
  380
  403
  427
  452
  478
  505
  534
  564
  595
  627
  661
  697
  734
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  209
  114
  119
  123
  126
  128
  129
  128
  127
  124
  115
  111
  106
  100
  93
  86
  78
  70
  62
  54
  47
  40
  33
  27
  22
  17
  13
  10
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Ebix, Inc. provides on-demand software and e-commerce solutions for the insurance industry. The company operates data exchanges, which connect various entities within the insurance markets and enables the participant to carry and process data from one end to another in the areas of life insurance, annuities, employee health benefits, risk management, workers compensation, and property and casualty (P&C) insurance. It also focuses in the area of broker systems on designing and deploying back-end systems consisting of eGlobal for multinational P&C insurance brokers; WinBeat for P&C brokers in the Australian and New Zealand markets; and EbixASP, a system for the P&C insurance brokers in the United States. In addition, the company offers business process outsourcing services, which include domain intensive project management, and time and material consulting engagements, as well as the provision of claims adjudication and settlement, call center, and back office support. Further, it offers risk compliance solution services, such as insurance certificate origination, certificate tracking, claims adjudication call center, and back office support; and carrier systems, such as Ebix Advantage and Ebix Advantageweb targeted at small, medium, and large P&C carriers in the United States and internationally that operate in the personal, commercial, and specialty line areas of insurance. Additionally, the company offers software development, customization, and consulting services to various companies in the insurance industry, such as carriers, brokers, exchanges, and standard making bodies. The company was formerly known as Delphi Systems, Inc. and changed its name to Ebix, Inc. in December 2003. Ebix, Inc. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Johns Creek, Georgia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ebix (EBIX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.3
Price to Sales 6.1
Price to Book 4.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 24.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -41.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 58.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 10
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 60.9%
Total Debt to Equity 63.7%
Interest Coverage 15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Return On Total Capital 14.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.5%
Return On Equity 22.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.9%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 71.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 74.1%
EBITDA Margin 38.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.4%
Operating Margin 33.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 32.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.7%
Net Profit Margin 31.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.5%
Effective Tax Rate 2.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Payout Ratio 10.6%

EBIX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EBIX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $298 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ebix. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ebix. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EBIX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EBIX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ebix, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ebix.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EBIX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 63.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $8 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EBIX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Ebix.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ebix. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EBIX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EBIX are equal to 39.4%.

Life of production assets of 49 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ebix operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EBIX is equal to 5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $427 million for Ebix - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.858 million for Ebix is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ebix at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.


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Stock chart of EBIX Financial statements of EBIX Annual reports of EBIX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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