Intrinsic value of Emergent Biosolutions - EBS

Previous Close

$35.82

  Intrinsic Value

$36.73

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+3%

  Value-price divergence*

+166%

Previous close

$35.82

 
Intrinsic value

$36.73

 
Up/down potential

+3%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

+166%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EBS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.00
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.13
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
Revenue, $m
  489
  515
  543
  572
  602
  634
  667
  702
  738
  776
  817
  858
  902
  949
  997
  1,048
  1,101
  1,157
  1,216
  1,277
  1,342
  1,409
  1,480
  1,555
  1,633
  1,715
  1,802
  1,892
  1,987
  2,087
  2,192
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  367
  386
  407
  428
  450
  473
  498
  524
  550
  579
  604
  635
  667
  702
  737
  775
  814
  855
  899
  944
  992
  1,042
  1,094
  1,149
  1,207
  1,268
  1,331
  1,398
  1,469
  1,542
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  383
  367
  386
  407
  428
  450
  473
  498
  524
  550
  579
  604
  635
  667
  702
  737
  775
  814
  855
  899
  944
  992
  1,042
  1,094
  1,149
  1,207
  1,268
  1,331
  1,398
  1,469
  1,542
Operating income, $m
  106
  149
  157
  165
  174
  184
  194
  204
  215
  226
  238
  254
  267
  281
  296
  311
  326
  343
  360
  378
  398
  418
  439
  461
  484
  508
  534
  561
  589
  619
  650
EBITDA, $m
  144
  189
  199
  210
  221
  233
  245
  258
  271
  285
  300
  315
  331
  348
  366
  384
  404
  424
  446
  469
  492
  517
  543
  571
  599
  629
  661
  694
  729
  766
  804
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
Earnings before tax, $m
  99
  140
  148
  155
  164
  172
  181
  191
  201
  211
  222
  237
  249
  262
  275
  289
  304
  319
  335
  351
  369
  387
  407
  427
  448
  471
  494
  519
  545
  572
  601
Tax expense, $m
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154
  162
Net income, $m
  52
  102
  108
  113
  119
  126
  132
  139
  146
  154
  162
  173
  182
  191
  201
  211
  222
  233
  244
  257
  269
  283
  297
  312
  327
  344
  361
  379
  398
  418
  438

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  272
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  970
  735
  775
  816
  859
  904
  952
  1,001
  1,053
  1,108
  1,165
  1,225
  1,287
  1,353
  1,422
  1,495
  1,571
  1,650
  1,734
  1,822
  1,914
  2,010
  2,112
  2,218
  2,330
  2,447
  2,570
  2,699
  2,835
  2,977
  3,127
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  698
  735
  775
  816
  859
  904
  952
  1,001
  1,053
  1,108
  1,165
  1,225
  1,287
  1,353
  1,422
  1,495
  1,571
  1,650
  1,734
  1,822
  1,914
  2,010
  2,112
  2,218
  2,330
  2,447
  2,570
  2,699
  2,835
  2,977
  3,127
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.700
  0.701
  0.700
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
Average production assets, $m
  390
  411
  433
  456
  480
  505
  532
  559
  588
  619
  651
  684
  719
  756
  795
  835
  878
  922
  969
  1,018
  1,069
  1,123
  1,180
  1,239
  1,302
  1,367
  1,436
  1,508
  1,584
  1,663
  1,747
Working capital, $m
  404
  160
  169
  178
  187
  197
  207
  218
  230
  241
  254
  267
  281
  295
  310
  326
  342
  360
  378
  397
  417
  438
  460
  484
  508
  534
  560
  588
  618
  649
  682
Total debt, $m
  268
  267
  287
  308
  330
  352
  376
  402
  428
  456
  485
  515
  547
  580
  615
  652
  690
  731
  773
  818
  864
  913
  965
  1,019
  1,075
  1,135
  1,197
  1,263
  1,331
  1,404
  1,479
Total liabilities, $m
  374
  373
  393
  414
  436
  458
  482
  508
  534
  562
  591
  621
  653
  686
  721
  758
  796
  837
  879
  924
  970
  1,019
  1,071
  1,125
  1,181
  1,241
  1,303
  1,369
  1,437
  1,510
  1,585
Total equity, $m
  596
  362
  382
  402
  424
  446
  469
  494
  519
  546
  574
  604
  635
  667
  701
  737
  774
  814
  855
  898
  943
  991
  1,041
  1,094
  1,149
  1,206
  1,267
  1,331
  1,398
  1,468
  1,541
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  970
  735
  775
  816
  860
  904
  951
  1,002
  1,053
  1,108
  1,165
  1,225
  1,288
  1,353
  1,422
  1,495
  1,570
  1,651
  1,734
  1,822
  1,913
  2,010
  2,112
  2,219
  2,330
  2,447
  2,570
  2,700
  2,835
  2,978
  3,126
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.450
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.920
  0.930
  0.930
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.950
  0.950
  0.960
  0.960
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  52
  102
  108
  113
  119
  126
  132
  139
  146
  154
  162
  173
  182
  191
  201
  211
  222
  233
  244
  257
  269
  283
  297
  312
  327
  344
  361
  379
  398
  418
  438
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  155
Funds from operations, $m
  8
  143
  150
  158
  166
  175
  183
  193
  203
  213
  224
  234
  246
  258
  271
  285
  299
  314
  330
  347
  364
  382
  401
  421
  443
  465
  488
  512
  538
  565
  593
Change in working capital, $m
  -45
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
Cash from operations, $m
  53
  134
  141
  149
  157
  165
  173
  182
  191
  201
  211
  221
  232
  244
  256
  269
  283
  297
  312
  327
  344
  361
  379
  398
  418
  439
  461
  484
  508
  534
  560
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
New CAPEX, $m
  -76
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -83
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -76
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -220
  -230
Free cash flow, $m
  -23
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  130
  136
  143
  151
  158
  166
  175
  184
  193
  202
  213
  223
  234
  246
  258
  271
  285
  299
  314
  330
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -41
  97
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  154
  160
  168
  177
  186
  195
  205
  215
  226
  237
  249
  262
  275
  288
  303
  318
  334
  350
  368
  386
  405
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  64
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  252
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  331
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  152
  159
  167
  176
  185
  194
  204
  214
  225
  236
  248
  260
  273
  287
  301
  316
  332
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  317
  77
  77
  76
  76
  75
  73
  71
  69
  66
  62
  59
  55
  51
  47
  43
  38
  34
  30
  26
  22
  19
  15
  13
  10
  8
  6
  5
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Emergent BioSolutions Inc., a specialty biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development, manufacture, and distribution of a portfolio of vaccines, therapeutics, and other novel products and related services for civilian and military populations in the United States. Its products address public health threats, primarily chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and explosive, or CBRNE threats, as well as infectious diseases. The company’s marketed products include BioThrax, an anthrax vaccine; Anthrasil, a polyclonal antibody for the treatment of inhalational anthrax; BAT (Botulism Antitoxin Heptavalent) for the treatment of botulinum disease; VIGIV (Vaccinia Immune Globulin Intravenous) that addresses adverse events from smallpox vaccination; and reactive skin decontamination lotion kit for the removal or neutralization of chemical agents, T-2 toxin and various pesticide-related chemicals from the skin. Its investigational stage product candidates include NuThrax, a next generation anthrax vaccine; UV-4B for dengue and influenza infections; GC-072 for Burkholderia pseudomallei; VAX161C, a recombinant pandemic influenza vaccine; and other products addressing public health threats and emerging infectious diseases. In addition, the company provides contract manufacturing services to third-party customers. Emergent BioSolutions, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Emergent Biosolutions (EBS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.9
Price to Sales 3
Price to Book 2.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 27.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -63.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 68.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 14
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 41.6%
Total Debt to Equity 45%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Return On Total Capital 5.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Return On Equity 8.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 73.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 75.4%
EBITDA Margin 29.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32%
Operating Margin 21.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.9%
Net Profit Margin 10.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Effective Tax Rate 36.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

EBS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EBS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $489 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Emergent Biosolutions. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Emergent Biosolutions. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EBS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EBS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Emergent Biosolutions, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Emergent Biosolutions.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EBS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EBS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Emergent Biosolutions.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Emergent Biosolutions. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EBS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EBS are equal to 79.7%.

Life of production assets of 11.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Emergent Biosolutions operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EBS is equal to 31.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $596 million for Emergent Biosolutions - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 41.601 million for Emergent Biosolutions is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Emergent Biosolutions at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Emergent acquires Sanofi smallpox vaccine in deal worth up to $125 million   [Jul-14-17 01:50PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Emergent Biosolutions beats 1Q profit forecasts   [May-04-17 07:10PM  Associated Press]
▶ Emergent BioSolutions gets $100 million anthrax contract from feds   [05:40AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Local drug company stocks react to Trump's proposed cuts to NIH, FDA   [05:50PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Emergent BioSolutions Inc Sets its Goal   [Feb-24-17 06:31PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Emergent BioSolutions Inc Sets its Goal   [06:31PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Cheap Growth Stocks You Can Buy Right Now   [Jan-23-17 12:04PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ D.C.-area biotech stocks fall on Trump's tough talk on industry   [Jan-11-17 11:10PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Four Stocks Moving Higher   [Dec-14-16 11:58AM  at Forbes]
▶ What Hedge Fund Sentiment Says about HudBay Minerals Inc (HBM)?   [Nov-25-16 04:37PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Emergent Biosolutions Inc Slimmed Down, Waiting on Contract   [Nov-10-16 02:45PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Why Emergent Biosolutions Inc Surged Higher Today   [Sep-30-16 04:31PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of EBS Financial statements of EBS Annual reports of EBS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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