Intrinsic value of Emergent Biosolutions - EBS

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$28.99

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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$28.99

 
Intrinsic value

$35.18

 
Up/down potential

+21%

 
Rating

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EBS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.00
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  489
  499
  510
  523
  538
  554
  572
  592
  613
  636
  660
  686
  714
  744
  775
  809
  844
  881
  921
  963
  1,007
  1,054
  1,103
  1,155
  1,210
  1,267
  1,328
  1,392
  1,459
  1,530
  1,604
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  355
  363
  372
  383
  394
  407
  420
  435
  451
  468
  483
  502
  523
  545
  569
  594
  620
  648
  678
  709
  742
  776
  813
  851
  892
  934
  979
  1,027
  1,076
  1,129
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  383
  355
  363
  372
  383
  394
  407
  420
  435
  451
  468
  483
  502
  523
  545
  569
  594
  620
  648
  678
  709
  742
  776
  813
  851
  892
  934
  979
  1,027
  1,076
  1,129
Operating income, $m
  106
  144
  147
  151
  155
  160
  166
  171
  178
  184
  192
  203
  212
  220
  230
  240
  250
  261
  273
  285
  299
  312
  327
  342
  359
  376
  394
  413
  432
  453
  475
EBITDA, $m
  144
  183
  187
  192
  197
  203
  210
  217
  225
  233
  242
  252
  262
  273
  284
  297
  310
  323
  338
  353
  370
  387
  405
  424
  444
  465
  487
  511
  535
  561
  589
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
Earnings before tax, $m
  99
  135
  138
  142
  146
  150
  155
  161
  166
  172
  179
  190
  198
  206
  215
  224
  233
  244
  254
  266
  278
  291
  304
  318
  333
  349
  365
  383
  401
  420
  440
Tax expense, $m
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  43
  45
  47
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  119
Net income, $m
  52
  99
  101
  104
  106
  110
  113
  117
  121
  126
  131
  139
  145
  150
  157
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  279
  293
  307
  321

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  272
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  970
  712
  728
  747
  768
  791
  816
  844
  874
  907
  942
  979
  1,018
  1,061
  1,106
  1,153
  1,204
  1,257
  1,314
  1,374
  1,437
  1,504
  1,574
  1,648
  1,726
  1,808
  1,895
  1,986
  2,081
  2,182
  2,288
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  698
  712
  728
  747
  768
  791
  816
  844
  874
  907
  942
  979
  1,018
  1,061
  1,106
  1,153
  1,204
  1,257
  1,314
  1,374
  1,437
  1,504
  1,574
  1,648
  1,726
  1,808
  1,895
  1,986
  2,081
  2,182
  2,288
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.700
  0.701
  0.700
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.702
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
Average production assets, $m
  390
  398
  407
  417
  429
  442
  456
  472
  488
  507
  526
  547
  569
  593
  618
  644
  673
  703
  734
  768
  803
  840
  879
  921
  964
  1,010
  1,058
  1,109
  1,163
  1,219
  1,278
Working capital, $m
  404
  155
  159
  163
  167
  172
  178
  184
  191
  198
  205
  213
  222
  231
  241
  251
  262
  274
  286
  300
  313
  328
  343
  359
  376
  394
  413
  433
  454
  476
  499
Total debt, $m
  268
  255
  263
  273
  283
  295
  308
  322
  337
  354
  371
  390
  410
  432
  455
  479
  504
  532
  560
  591
  623
  656
  692
  729
  769
  811
  855
  901
  949
  1,000
  1,054
Total liabilities, $m
  374
  361
  369
  379
  389
  401
  414
  428
  443
  460
  477
  496
  516
  538
  561
  585
  610
  638
  666
  697
  729
  762
  798
  835
  875
  917
  961
  1,007
  1,055
  1,106
  1,160
Total equity, $m
  596
  351
  359
  368
  378
  390
  402
  416
  431
  447
  464
  483
  502
  523
  545
  569
  594
  620
  648
  677
  708
  741
  776
  812
  851
  891
  934
  979
  1,026
  1,076
  1,128
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  970
  712
  728
  747
  767
  791
  816
  844
  874
  907
  941
  979
  1,018
  1,061
  1,106
  1,154
  1,204
  1,258
  1,314
  1,374
  1,437
  1,503
  1,574
  1,647
  1,726
  1,808
  1,895
  1,986
  2,081
  2,182
  2,288
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.450
  0.730
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.890
  0.900
  0.900
  0.910
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.930
  0.930
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  52
  99
  101
  104
  106
  110
  113
  117
  121
  126
  131
  139
  145
  150
  157
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  279
  293
  307
  321
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
Funds from operations, $m
  8
  138
  141
  145
  149
  153
  158
  163
  169
  175
  181
  187
  195
  203
  211
  220
  230
  240
  251
  262
  274
  286
  300
  314
  328
  344
  360
  377
  396
  415
  435
Change in working capital, $m
  -45
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Cash from operations, $m
  53
  155
  137
  140
  144
  148
  152
  157
  162
  168
  174
  179
  186
  194
  202
  210
  219
  228
  238
  249
  260
  272
  284
  298
  311
  326
  341
  358
  375
  393
  412
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
New CAPEX, $m
  -76
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -76
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -82
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
Free cash flow, $m
  -23
  113
  93
  94
  95
  97
  99
  101
  104
  106
  110
  112
  116
  120
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  178
  186
  195
  204
  213
  223
  233
  244
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -19
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -41
  120
  101
  104
  106
  109
  112
  115
  119
  123
  127
  131
  136
  141
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  197
  206
  216
  226
  236
  248
  259
  272
  285
  298
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  64
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  252
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  365
  93
  94
  96
  97
  99
  101
  104
  107
  110
  112
  116
  120
  125
  129
  134
  140
  145
  151
  158
  165
  172
  179
  187
  196
  205
  214
  224
  235
  246
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  350
  85
  82
  79
  75
  72
  69
  65
  61
  58
  53
  50
  46
  42
  38
  34
  30
  27
  23
  20
  17
  14
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  3
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Emergent BioSolutions Inc., a specialty biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development, manufacture, and distribution of a portfolio of vaccines, therapeutics, and other novel products and related services for civilian and military populations in the United States. Its products address public health threats, primarily chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and explosive, or CBRNE threats, as well as infectious diseases. The company’s marketed products include BioThrax, an anthrax vaccine; Anthrasil, a polyclonal antibody for the treatment of inhalational anthrax; BAT (Botulism Antitoxin Heptavalent) for the treatment of botulinum disease; VIGIV (Vaccinia Immune Globulin Intravenous) that addresses adverse events from smallpox vaccination; and reactive skin decontamination lotion kit for the removal or neutralization of chemical agents, T-2 toxin and various pesticide-related chemicals from the skin. Its investigational stage product candidates include NuThrax, a next generation anthrax vaccine; UV-4B for dengue and influenza infections; GC-072 for Burkholderia pseudomallei; VAX161C, a recombinant pandemic influenza vaccine; and other products addressing public health threats and emerging infectious diseases. In addition, the company provides contract manufacturing services to third-party customers. Emergent BioSolutions, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Emergent Biosolutions (EBS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.6
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -51.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 68.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 14
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 41.6%
Total Debt to Equity 45%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Return On Total Capital 5.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Return On Equity 8.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 73.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 75.4%
EBITDA Margin 29.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32%
Operating Margin 21.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.9%
Net Profit Margin 10.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Effective Tax Rate 36.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

EBS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EBS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $489 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Emergent Biosolutions. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Emergent Biosolutions. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EBS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EBS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Emergent Biosolutions, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Emergent Biosolutions.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EBS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EBS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Emergent Biosolutions.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Emergent Biosolutions. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EBS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EBS are equal to 79.7%.

Life of production assets of 11.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Emergent Biosolutions operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EBS is equal to 31.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $596 million for Emergent Biosolutions - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 40.978 million for Emergent Biosolutions is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Emergent Biosolutions at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Emergent BioSolutions gets $100 million anthrax contract from feds   [05:40AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Local drug company stocks react to Trump's proposed cuts to NIH, FDA   [05:50PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Emergent BioSolutions Inc Sets its Goal   [Feb-24-17 06:31PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Emergent BioSolutions Inc Sets its Goal   [06:31PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Cheap Growth Stocks You Can Buy Right Now   [Jan-23-17 12:04PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ D.C.-area biotech stocks fall on Trump's tough talk on industry   [Jan-11-17 11:10PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Four Stocks Moving Higher   [Dec-14-16 11:58AM  at Forbes]
▶ What Hedge Fund Sentiment Says about HudBay Minerals Inc (HBM)?   [Nov-25-16 04:37PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Emergent Biosolutions Inc Slimmed Down, Waiting on Contract   [Nov-10-16 02:45PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Why Emergent Biosolutions Inc Surged Higher Today   [Sep-30-16 04:31PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Heres Why These Five Stocks Are on the Move Today   [12:50PM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of EBS Financial statements of EBS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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