Intrinsic value of New Oriental Education&Technology Group - EDU

Previous Close

$89.50

  Intrinsic Value

$59.08

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-34%

Previous close

$89.50

 
Intrinsic value

$59.08

 
Up/down potential

-34%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of EDU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 14.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  21.79
  23.00
  21.20
  19.58
  18.12
  16.81
  15.63
  14.57
  13.61
  12.75
  11.97
  11.28
  10.65
  10.08
  9.58
  9.12
  8.71
  8.34
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.60
  6.44
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
Revenue, $m
  1,800
  2,214
  2,683
  3,209
  3,790
  4,427
  5,119
  5,865
  6,663
  7,513
  8,412
  9,361
  10,358
  11,402
  12,494
  13,633
  14,820
  16,055
  17,340
  18,675
  20,063
  21,505
  23,004
  24,562
  26,182
  27,867
  29,621
  31,446
  33,348
  35,329
  37,395
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,786
  2,165
  2,588
  3,057
  3,571
  4,129
  4,730
  5,373
  6,058
  6,784
  7,547
  8,351
  9,193
  10,073
  10,991
  11,948
  12,944
  13,980
  15,056
  16,175
  17,338
  18,547
  19,803
  21,109
  22,467
  23,881
  25,353
  26,886
  28,483
  30,149
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  91
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  108
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  129
  132
  135
  139
  142
  146
  149
  153
  157
  161
  165
  169
  173
  178
  182
  187
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,540
  1,877
  2,259
  2,684
  3,155
  3,672
  4,232
  4,836
  5,481
  6,169
  6,898
  7,664
  8,471
  9,316
  10,199
  11,120
  12,080
  13,079
  14,119
  15,198
  16,321
  17,487
  18,700
  19,960
  21,270
  22,632
  24,050
  25,526
  27,064
  28,665
  30,336
Operating income, $m
  260
  336
  425
  525
  635
  756
  887
  1,029
  1,181
  1,343
  1,515
  1,697
  1,887
  2,087
  2,295
  2,513
  2,740
  2,976
  3,221
  3,477
  3,742
  4,018
  4,304
  4,603
  4,913
  5,235
  5,571
  5,920
  6,284
  6,664
  7,060
EBITDA, $m
  316
  404
  506
  622
  749
  889
  1,041
  1,205
  1,381
  1,569
  1,767
  1,976
  2,196
  2,427
  2,668
  2,919
  3,181
  3,454
  3,738
  4,033
  4,340
  4,659
  4,990
  5,335
  5,693
  6,065
  6,453
  6,857
  7,278
  7,717
  8,174
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  -14
  -8
  -1
  7
  15
  24
  34
  45
  56
  68
  81
  94
  108
  122
  138
  153
  170
  187
  204
  223
  242
  262
  283
  304
  327
  350
  374
  399
  426
Earnings before tax, $m
  331
  336
  439
  532
  636
  749
  872
  1,005
  1,147
  1,298
  1,459
  1,629
  1,807
  1,993
  2,187
  2,390
  2,602
  2,822
  3,052
  3,290
  3,537
  3,795
  4,062
  4,341
  4,630
  4,931
  5,244
  5,570
  5,910
  6,265
  6,634
Tax expense, $m
  51
  91
  119
  144
  172
  202
  235
  271
  310
  351
  394
  440
  488
  538
  591
  645
  703
  762
  824
  888
  955
  1,025
  1,097
  1,172
  1,250
  1,331
  1,416
  1,504
  1,596
  1,691
  1,791
Net income, $m
  274
  246
  321
  389
  464
  547
  637
  734
  837
  948
  1,065
  1,189
  1,319
  1,455
  1,597
  1,745
  1,900
  2,060
  2,228
  2,402
  2,582
  2,770
  2,966
  3,169
  3,380
  3,600
  3,828
  4,066
  4,315
  4,573
  4,843

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  2,166
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,925
  933
  1,131
  1,353
  1,598
  1,867
  2,158
  2,473
  2,809
  3,167
  3,546
  3,946
  4,367
  4,807
  5,267
  5,747
  6,248
  6,769
  7,310
  7,873
  8,458
  9,066
  9,698
  10,355
  11,038
  11,748
  12,488
  13,257
  14,059
  14,894
  15,765
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  759
  933
  1,131
  1,353
  1,598
  1,867
  2,158
  2,473
  2,809
  3,167
  3,546
  3,946
  4,367
  4,807
  5,267
  5,747
  6,248
  6,769
  7,310
  7,873
  8,458
  9,066
  9,698
  10,355
  11,038
  11,748
  12,488
  13,257
  14,059
  14,894
  15,765
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.372
  2.373
  2.372
  2.372
  2.372
  2.371
  2.372
  2.372
  2.372
  2.372
  2.372
  2.372
  2.372
  2.372
  2.372
  2.372
  2.372
  2.372
  2.372
  2.372
  2.372
  2.372
  2.372
  2.372
  2.372
  2.372
  2.372
  2.372
  2.372
  2.372
  2.372
Average production assets, $m
  268
  330
  400
  478
  565
  660
  763
  874
  993
  1,119
  1,253
  1,395
  1,543
  1,699
  1,862
  2,031
  2,208
  2,392
  2,584
  2,783
  2,989
  3,204
  3,428
  3,660
  3,901
  4,152
  4,413
  4,685
  4,969
  5,264
  5,572
Working capital, $m
  1,123
  -1,282
  -1,554
  -1,858
  -2,195
  -2,563
  -2,964
  -3,396
  -3,858
  -4,350
  -4,871
  -5,420
  -5,997
  -6,602
  -7,234
  -7,893
  -8,581
  -9,296
  -10,040
  -10,813
  -11,617
  -12,452
  -13,319
  -14,222
  -15,159
  -16,135
  -17,150
  -18,207
  -19,308
  -20,456
  -21,652
Total debt, $m
  0
  -404
  -226
  -27
  194
  436
  698
  981
  1,284
  1,607
  1,948
  2,308
  2,686
  3,082
  3,496
  3,929
  4,379
  4,848
  5,335
  5,842
  6,369
  6,916
  7,484
  8,076
  8,690
  9,330
  9,995
  10,688
  11,409
  12,161
  12,945
Total liabilities, $m
  1,244
  840
  1,018
  1,217
  1,438
  1,680
  1,942
  2,225
  2,528
  2,851
  3,192
  3,552
  3,930
  4,326
  4,740
  5,173
  5,623
  6,092
  6,579
  7,086
  7,613
  8,160
  8,728
  9,320
  9,934
  10,574
  11,239
  11,932
  12,653
  13,405
  14,189
Total equity, $m
  1,681
  93
  113
  135
  160
  187
  216
  247
  281
  317
  355
  395
  437
  481
  527
  575
  625
  677
  731
  787
  846
  907
  970
  1,036
  1,104
  1,175
  1,249
  1,326
  1,406
  1,489
  1,577
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,925
  933
  1,131
  1,352
  1,598
  1,867
  2,158
  2,472
  2,809
  3,168
  3,547
  3,947
  4,367
  4,807
  5,267
  5,748
  6,248
  6,769
  7,310
  7,873
  8,459
  9,067
  9,698
  10,356
  11,038
  11,749
  12,488
  13,258
  14,059
  14,894
  15,766
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -4.330
  -2.000
  -0.200
  1.210
  2.340
  3.240
  3.970
  4.570
  5.070
  5.490
  5.850
  6.150
  6.410
  6.640
  6.840
  7.010
  7.160
  7.300
  7.420
  7.530
  7.630
  7.720
  7.800
  7.870
  7.940
  8.000
  8.060
  8.120
  8.160
  8.210
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.639
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  274
  246
  321
  389
  464
  547
  637
  734
  837
  948
  1,065
  1,189
  1,319
  1,455
  1,597
  1,745
  1,900
  2,060
  2,228
  2,402
  2,582
  2,770
  2,966
  3,169
  3,380
  3,600
  3,828
  4,066
  4,315
  4,573
  4,843
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  56
  67
  81
  97
  114
  133
  154
  176
  200
  225
  252
  279
  309
  340
  372
  406
  442
  478
  517
  557
  598
  641
  686
  732
  780
  830
  883
  937
  994
  1,053
  1,114
Funds from operations, $m
  882
  313
  402
  486
  578
  680
  791
  910
  1,037
  1,173
  1,317
  1,468
  1,627
  1,794
  1,969
  2,151
  2,341
  2,539
  2,744
  2,958
  3,180
  3,411
  3,651
  3,901
  4,160
  4,430
  4,711
  5,003
  5,308
  5,626
  5,957
Change in working capital, $m
  264
  -240
  -272
  -304
  -337
  -369
  -401
  -432
  -462
  -492
  -521
  -549
  -577
  -605
  -632
  -660
  -687
  -715
  -744
  -773
  -804
  -835
  -868
  -902
  -938
  -976
  -1,015
  -1,057
  -1,101
  -1,147
  -1,196
Cash from operations, $m
  618
  553
  674
  790
  915
  1,049
  1,191
  1,341
  1,499
  1,665
  1,838
  2,017
  2,205
  2,399
  2,601
  2,811
  3,028
  3,254
  3,488
  3,731
  3,984
  4,246
  4,519
  4,803
  5,098
  5,406
  5,726
  6,060
  6,409
  6,773
  7,153
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -54
  -66
  -80
  -96
  -113
  -132
  -153
  -175
  -199
  -224
  -251
  -279
  -309
  -340
  -372
  -406
  -442
  -478
  -517
  -557
  -598
  -641
  -686
  -732
  -780
  -830
  -883
  -937
  -994
  -1,053
New CAPEX, $m
  -106
  -62
  -70
  -78
  -87
  -95
  -103
  -111
  -119
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -170
  -177
  -184
  -191
  -199
  -207
  -215
  -223
  -232
  -241
  -251
  -261
  -272
  -283
  -295
  -308
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -672
  -116
  -136
  -158
  -183
  -208
  -235
  -264
  -294
  -326
  -358
  -392
  -428
  -465
  -503
  -542
  -583
  -626
  -669
  -716
  -764
  -813
  -864
  -918
  -973
  -1,031
  -1,091
  -1,155
  -1,220
  -1,289
  -1,361
Free cash flow, $m
  -54
  437
  538
  632
  733
  841
  956
  1,078
  1,206
  1,340
  1,480
  1,625
  1,777
  1,935
  2,099
  2,269
  2,445
  2,628
  2,818
  3,016
  3,221
  3,433
  3,655
  3,885
  4,125
  4,374
  4,634
  4,906
  5,189
  5,484
  5,793
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -404
  178
  199
  221
  242
  263
  283
  303
  322
  341
  360
  378
  396
  414
  432
  450
  469
  487
  507
  527
  547
  569
  591
  615
  639
  665
  693
  721
  752
  784
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  333
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  9
  -71
  178
  199
  221
  242
  263
  283
  303
  322
  341
  360
  378
  396
  414
  432
  450
  469
  487
  507
  527
  547
  569
  591
  615
  639
  665
  693
  721
  752
  784
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -68
  366
  716
  831
  954
  1,083
  1,219
  1,361
  1,509
  1,662
  1,821
  1,985
  2,155
  2,331
  2,513
  2,701
  2,896
  3,097
  3,306
  3,522
  3,747
  3,981
  4,223
  4,476
  4,739
  5,014
  5,300
  5,598
  5,910
  6,236
  6,577
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -276
  -578
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  2,166
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,954
  696
  809
  929
  1,056
  1,190
  1,329
  1,475
  1,626
  1,783
  1,945
  2,113
  2,287
  2,467
  2,653
  2,846
  3,045
  3,252
  3,466
  3,689
  3,920
  4,160
  4,410
  4,671
  4,943
  5,226
  5,521
  5,830
  6,153
  6,490
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,873
  637
  704
  765
  819
  863
  898
  922
  934
  935
  924
  902
  870
  828
  779
  723
  663
  599
  534
  469
  405
  345
  289
  238
  192
  152
  119
  90
  67
  49
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. is a provider of private educational services in the People's Republic of China (the PRC). The Company provides educational services under its New Oriental brand. The Company operates through seven segments, which include language training and test preparation, primary and secondary school education, online education, content development and distribution, pre-school education, overseas study consulting services and study tour. The Company offers a range of educational programs, services and products, consisting of English and other foreign language training, test preparation courses for admissions and assessment tests in the United States, the People's Republic of China and Commonwealth countries, primary and secondary school education, development and distribution of educational content, software and other technology, and online education.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  New Oriental Education&Technology Group (EDU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 51.5
Price to Sales 7.8
Price to Book 8.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 27.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 21.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 65.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 27.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Return On Total Capital 17.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
Return On Equity 17.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 58.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58.2%
EBITDA Margin 21.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.4%
Operating Margin 14.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 18.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18%
Net Profit Margin 15.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
Effective Tax Rate 15.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

EDU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EDU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1800 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by New Oriental Education&Technology Group . The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of New Oriental Education&Technology Group . You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EDU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 23% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EDU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of New Oriental Education&Technology Group , is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of New Oriental Education&Technology Group .
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EDU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $89 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EDU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for New Oriental Education&Technology Group .

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for New Oriental Education&Technology Group . In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EDU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EDU are equal to 14.9%.

Life of production assets of 5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in New Oriental Education&Technology Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EDU is equal to -57.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1681 million for New Oriental Education&Technology Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 158.167 million for New Oriental Education&Technology Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of New Oriental Education&Technology Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $14.2 billion.

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Financial statements of EDU
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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