Intrinsic value of El Paso Electric - EE

Previous Close

$53.95

  Intrinsic Value

$34.03

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-37%

  Value-price divergence*

-15%

Previous close

$53.95

 
Intrinsic value

$34.03

 
Up/down potential

-37%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-15%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.35
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
  7.33
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
Revenue, $m
  887
  960
  1,035
  1,114
  1,196
  1,281
  1,369
  1,460
  1,556
  1,655
  1,758
  1,866
  1,978
  2,095
  2,216
  2,344
  2,476
  2,615
  2,759
  2,911
  3,069
  3,234
  3,407
  3,588
  3,778
  3,976
  4,184
  4,402
  4,630
  4,870
  5,120
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  796
  858
  923
  991
  1,062
  1,135
  1,211
  1,290
  1,372
  1,458
  1,547
  1,640
  1,736
  1,837
  1,943
  2,053
  2,168
  2,287
  2,413
  2,544
  2,681
  2,824
  2,975
  3,132
  3,296
  3,469
  3,649
  3,839
  4,037
  4,245
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  692
  796
  858
  923
  991
  1,062
  1,135
  1,211
  1,290
  1,372
  1,458
  1,547
  1,640
  1,736
  1,837
  1,943
  2,053
  2,168
  2,287
  2,413
  2,544
  2,681
  2,824
  2,975
  3,132
  3,296
  3,469
  3,649
  3,839
  4,037
  4,245
Operating income, $m
  195
  164
  177
  190
  204
  219
  234
  250
  266
  283
  301
  319
  338
  358
  379
  401
  423
  447
  472
  498
  525
  553
  583
  614
  646
  680
  715
  753
  792
  833
  876
EBITDA, $m
  340
  190
  205
  220
  237
  253
  271
  289
  308
  328
  348
  369
  391
  415
  439
  464
  490
  517
  546
  576
  607
  640
  674
  710
  748
  787
  828
  871
  916
  964
  1,013
Interest expense (income), $m
  70
  72
  82
  92
  103
  114
  126
  138
  151
  164
  177
  191
  206
  222
  238
  254
  272
  290
  309
  329
  350
  371
  394
  418
  442
  469
  496
  524
  554
  586
  618
Earnings before tax, $m
  151
  92
  95
  98
  102
  105
  108
  112
  116
  119
  123
  128
  132
  137
  141
  146
  152
  157
  163
  169
  175
  182
  189
  196
  203
  211
  220
  228
  238
  247
  257
Tax expense, $m
  54
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
Net income, $m
  97
  67
  70
  72
  74
  77
  79
  82
  84
  87
  90
  93
  96
  100
  103
  107
  111
  115
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  154
  160
  167
  173
  180
  188

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,376
  3,649
  3,937
  4,236
  4,546
  4,869
  5,204
  5,553
  5,916
  6,293
  6,686
  7,095
  7,521
  7,965
  8,428
  8,911
  9,415
  9,941
  10,492
  11,067
  11,668
  12,297
  12,954
  13,643
  14,364
  15,119
  15,909
  16,738
  17,606
  18,516
  19,469
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,368
  3,649
  3,937
  4,236
  4,546
  4,869
  5,204
  5,553
  5,916
  6,293
  6,686
  7,095
  7,521
  7,965
  8,428
  8,911
  9,415
  9,941
  10,492
  11,067
  11,668
  12,297
  12,954
  13,643
  14,364
  15,119
  15,909
  16,738
  17,606
  18,516
  19,469
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
Average production assets, $m
  239
  258
  279
  300
  322
  344
  368
  393
  419
  445
  473
  502
  532
  563
  596
  630
  666
  703
  742
  783
  825
  870
  916
  965
  1,016
  1,070
  1,126
  1,184
  1,246
  1,310
  1,377
Working capital, $m
  -139
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  97
  102
Total debt, $m
  1,360
  1,543
  1,739
  1,942
  2,154
  2,374
  2,602
  2,840
  3,087
  3,344
  3,611
  3,889
  4,180
  4,482
  4,797
  5,126
  5,470
  5,828
  6,203
  6,594
  7,004
  7,432
  7,880
  8,349
  8,840
  9,354
  9,892
  10,456
  11,048
  11,667
  12,317
Total liabilities, $m
  2,302
  2,485
  2,681
  2,884
  3,096
  3,316
  3,544
  3,782
  4,029
  4,286
  4,553
  4,831
  5,122
  5,424
  5,739
  6,068
  6,412
  6,770
  7,145
  7,536
  7,946
  8,374
  8,822
  9,291
  9,782
  10,296
  10,834
  11,398
  11,990
  12,609
  13,259
Total equity, $m
  1,074
  1,164
  1,256
  1,351
  1,450
  1,553
  1,660
  1,771
  1,887
  2,007
  2,133
  2,263
  2,399
  2,541
  2,688
  2,843
  3,003
  3,171
  3,347
  3,530
  3,722
  3,923
  4,132
  4,352
  4,582
  4,823
  5,075
  5,339
  5,616
  5,906
  6,211
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,376
  3,649
  3,937
  4,235
  4,546
  4,869
  5,204
  5,553
  5,916
  6,293
  6,686
  7,094
  7,521
  7,965
  8,427
  8,911
  9,415
  9,941
  10,492
  11,066
  11,668
  12,297
  12,954
  13,643
  14,364
  15,119
  15,909
  16,737
  17,606
  18,515
  19,470
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.266
  1.330
  1.380
  1.440
  1.490
  1.530
  1.570
  1.600
  1.640
  1.670
  1.690
  1.720
  1.740
  1.760
  1.780
  1.800
  1.820
  1.840
  1.850
  1.870
  1.880
  1.890
  1.910
  1.920
  1.930
  1.940
  1.950
  1.960
  1.970
  1.980
  1.980
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.317
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  97
  67
  70
  72
  74
  77
  79
  82
  84
  87
  90
  93
  96
  100
  103
  107
  111
  115
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  154
  160
  167
  173
  180
  188
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  145
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  118
  125
  131
  138
Funds from operations, $m
  183
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  137
  143
  150
  156
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  202
  210
  220
  229
  240
  250
  261
  273
  285
  298
  311
  326
Change in working capital, $m
  -48
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  231
  92
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  135
  141
  147
  154
  160
  167
  175
  182
  190
  199
  207
  216
  226
  236
  246
  257
  269
  281
  293
  307
  321
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -125
  -131
New CAPEX, $m
  -268
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -276
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -179
  -189
  -198
Free cash flow, $m
  -45
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  76
  78
  81
  84
  86
  89
  92
  96
  99
  102
  106
  110
  114
  118
  122
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  97
  191
  196
  204
  212
  220
  228
  237
  247
  257
  267
  278
  290
  302
  315
  329
  343
  359
  375
  392
  409
  428
  448
  469
  491
  514
  538
  564
  591
  620
  649
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  23
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  110
  116
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  95
  214
  218
  228
  237
  246
  256
  267
  278
  290
  302
  315
  329
  344
  359
  376
  393
  412
  432
  452
  473
  496
  520
  546
  572
  600
  630
  661
  694
  730
  765
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  50
  262
  268
  278
  289
  301
  312
  325
  338
  351
  366
  381
  397
  413
  431
  450
  469
  490
  512
  535
  560
  585
  613
  641
  671
  703
  736
  771
  808
  847
  888
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -57
  -90
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -230
  -241
  -252
  -264
  -277
  -290
  -304
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  172
  176
  183
  190
  198
  205
  213
  222
  231
  240
  250
  261
  272
  283
  296
  309
  322
  337
  352
  368
  385
  403
  421
  441
  462
  484
  507
  531
  557
  584
Discount rate, %
 
  8.40
  8.82
  9.26
  9.72
  10.21
  10.72
  11.26
  11.82
  12.41
  13.03
  13.68
  14.37
  15.09
  15.84
  16.63
  17.46
  18.34
  19.25
  20.22
  21.23
  22.29
  23.40
  24.57
  25.80
  27.09
  28.45
  29.87
  31.36
  32.93
  34.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  159
  149
  140
  131
  121
  111
  101
  91
  81
  71
  61
  52
  44
  36
  29
  23
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.0
  98.1
  97.2
  96.3
  95.4
  94.6
  93.8
  93.0
  92.2
  91.4
  90.6
  89.9
  89.1
  88.3
  87.6
  86.8
  86.1
  85.3
  84.6
  83.9
  83.1
  82.4
  81.6
  80.9
  80.1
  79.4
  78.7
  77.9
  77.2
  76.4

El Paso Electric Company, a public utility company, engages in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity in west Texas and southern New Mexico. It generates electricity through nuclear fuel, natural gas, and coal facilities, as well as solar photovoltaic panels and wind turbines. The company owns or has ownership interests in various electrical generating facilities with a net dependable generating capability of approximately 2,055 megawatts; four 345 kilovolt (kV) transmission lines in New Mexico; and three 500 kV lines in Arizona. It distributes electricity to retail customers principally in El Paso, Texas; and Las Cruces, New Mexico. The company serves approximately 404,500 residential, commercial, industrial, public authority, and wholesale customers. El Paso Electric Company was founded in 1901 and is based in El Paso, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  El Paso Electric (EE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.5
Price to Sales 2.5
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -58.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -17%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 111.3%
Total Debt to Equity 126.6%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Total Capital 4.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Equity 9.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 41.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.8%
Operating Margin 22%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 17%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Net Profit Margin 10.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Effective Tax Rate 35.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.4%
Payout Ratio 51.5%

EE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $887 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by El Paso Electric. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of El Paso Electric. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.4%, whose default value for EE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of El Paso Electric, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of El Paso Electric.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.3% for El Paso Electric.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for El Paso Electric. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EE are equal to 26.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in El Paso Electric operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EE is equal to 2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1074 million for El Paso Electric - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 40.609 million for El Paso Electric is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of El Paso Electric at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ El Paso Electric posts 2Q profit   [Aug-02-17 09:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ El Paso Electric Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Jul-27-17 05:06PM  Business Wire]
▶ El Paso Electric reports 1Q loss   [06:20AM  Associated Press]
▶ El Paso Electric posts 4Q profit   [07:14AM  Associated Press]
▶ El Paso Electric Files 2017 Texas Rate Case   [Feb-13-17 12:57PM  Business Wire]
▶ El Paso Electric Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Jan-26-17 07:17PM  Business Wire]
▶ Is El Paso Electric Company (EE) Worthy of Your Portfolio?   [Dec-12-16 06:34PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Crazy About Tri Pointe Homes Inc (TPH)   [Nov-28-16 05:44AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ El Paso Electric Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-17-16 07:44PM  Business Wire]
▶ El Paso Electric Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Jul-22-16 06:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ El Paso Electric Sets New Peak   [Jul-15-16 02:34PM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of EE Financial statements of EE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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