Intrinsic value of El Paso Electric - EE

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$52.65

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.35
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.52
  5.46
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
Revenue, $m
  887
  942
  999
  1,059
  1,121
  1,186
  1,254
  1,324
  1,398
  1,475
  1,556
  1,640
  1,729
  1,821
  1,917
  2,019
  2,124
  2,235
  2,352
  2,473
  2,601
  2,735
  2,875
  3,022
  3,177
  3,339
  3,509
  3,687
  3,874
  4,070
  4,275
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  781
  828
  878
  929
  983
  1,039
  1,098
  1,159
  1,223
  1,290
  1,360
  1,433
  1,509
  1,590
  1,673
  1,761
  1,853
  1,950
  2,050
  2,156
  2,267
  2,384
  2,506
  2,634
  2,768
  2,909
  3,056
  3,211
  3,374
  3,544
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  692
  781
  828
  878
  929
  983
  1,039
  1,098
  1,159
  1,223
  1,290
  1,360
  1,433
  1,509
  1,590
  1,673
  1,761
  1,853
  1,950
  2,050
  2,156
  2,267
  2,384
  2,506
  2,634
  2,768
  2,909
  3,056
  3,211
  3,374
  3,544
Operating income, $m
  195
  161
  171
  181
  192
  203
  214
  226
  239
  252
  266
  280
  296
  311
  328
  345
  363
  382
  402
  423
  445
  468
  492
  517
  543
  571
  600
  630
  662
  696
  731
EBITDA, $m
  340
  209
  221
  235
  248
  263
  278
  293
  310
  327
  345
  363
  383
  403
  425
  447
  471
  495
  521
  548
  576
  606
  637
  670
  704
  740
  777
  817
  858
  902
  947
Interest expense (income), $m
  70
  72
  79
  87
  95
  104
  113
  122
  132
  142
  153
  164
  175
  187
  200
  213
  227
  242
  257
  273
  290
  307
  325
  345
  365
  386
  408
  432
  456
  482
  509
Earnings before tax, $m
  151
  89
  92
  94
  96
  99
  102
  104
  107
  110
  114
  117
  120
  124
  128
  132
  136
  141
  145
  150
  155
  161
  166
  172
  178
  185
  192
  199
  206
  214
  223
Tax expense, $m
  54
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  33
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
Net income, $m
  97
  65
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  83
  85
  88
  91
  93
  96
  99
  103
  106
  110
  113
  117
  121
  126
  130
  135
  140
  145
  151
  156
  162

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,376
  3,582
  3,799
  4,026
  4,263
  4,510
  4,767
  5,036
  5,317
  5,610
  5,916
  6,237
  6,572
  6,923
  7,290
  7,675
  8,078
  8,500
  8,942
  9,405
  9,890
  10,399
  10,933
  11,492
  12,079
  12,695
  13,340
  14,018
  14,728
  15,474
  16,257
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,368
  3,582
  3,799
  4,026
  4,263
  4,510
  4,767
  5,036
  5,317
  5,610
  5,916
  6,237
  6,572
  6,923
  7,290
  7,675
  8,078
  8,500
  8,942
  9,405
  9,890
  10,399
  10,933
  11,492
  12,079
  12,695
  13,340
  14,018
  14,728
  15,474
  16,257
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
Average production assets, $m
  239
  238
  253
  268
  284
  300
  317
  335
  354
  373
  394
  415
  437
  461
  485
  511
  537
  566
  595
  626
  658
  692
  727
  765
  804
  845
  888
  933
  980
  1,030
  1,082
Working capital, $m
  -139
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  60
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  86
Total debt, $m
  1,360
  1,497
  1,645
  1,800
  1,961
  2,129
  2,304
  2,487
  2,679
  2,878
  3,087
  3,305
  3,534
  3,773
  4,023
  4,285
  4,559
  4,846
  5,147
  5,463
  5,793
  6,140
  6,503
  6,884
  7,284
  7,703
  8,143
  8,604
  9,088
  9,596
  10,129
Total liabilities, $m
  2,302
  2,439
  2,587
  2,742
  2,903
  3,071
  3,246
  3,429
  3,621
  3,820
  4,029
  4,247
  4,476
  4,715
  4,965
  5,227
  5,501
  5,788
  6,089
  6,405
  6,735
  7,082
  7,445
  7,826
  8,226
  8,645
  9,085
  9,546
  10,030
  10,538
  11,071
Total equity, $m
  1,074
  1,143
  1,212
  1,284
  1,360
  1,439
  1,521
  1,606
  1,696
  1,790
  1,887
  1,990
  2,097
  2,209
  2,326
  2,448
  2,577
  2,711
  2,852
  3,000
  3,155
  3,317
  3,488
  3,666
  3,853
  4,050
  4,256
  4,472
  4,698
  4,936
  5,186
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,376
  3,582
  3,799
  4,026
  4,263
  4,510
  4,767
  5,035
  5,317
  5,610
  5,916
  6,237
  6,573
  6,924
  7,291
  7,675
  8,078
  8,499
  8,941
  9,405
  9,890
  10,399
  10,933
  11,492
  12,079
  12,695
  13,341
  14,018
  14,728
  15,474
  16,257
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.266
  1.310
  1.360
  1.400
  1.440
  1.480
  1.520
  1.550
  1.580
  1.610
  1.640
  1.660
  1.690
  1.710
  1.730
  1.750
  1.770
  1.790
  1.800
  1.820
  1.840
  1.850
  1.860
  1.880
  1.890
  1.900
  1.910
  1.920
  1.930
  1.940
  1.950
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.317
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  97
  65
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  83
  85
  88
  91
  93
  96
  99
  103
  106
  110
  113
  117
  121
  126
  130
  135
  140
  145
  151
  156
  162
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  145
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
  196
  206
  216
Funds from operations, $m
  183
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  143
  149
  155
  162
  168
  175
  183
  190
  198
  207
  216
  225
  235
  245
  256
  267
  279
  291
  304
  317
  332
  347
  362
  379
Change in working capital, $m
  -48
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  231
  42
  116
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  181
  188
  196
  205
  214
  223
  232
  242
  253
  264
  276
  288
  301
  314
  328
  343
  358
  375
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -206
New CAPEX, $m
  -268
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -276
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -157
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -192
  -202
  -212
  -223
  -234
  -246
  -258
Free cash flow, $m
  -45
  -16
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  60
  62
  63
  65
  67
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  83
  85
  87
  90
  93
  96
  99
  102
  106
  109
  113
  117
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  97
  145
  148
  155
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  218
  228
  239
  250
  262
  274
  287
  301
  315
  331
  347
  363
  381
  400
  419
  440
  461
  484
  508
  533
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  95
  145
  148
  155
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  218
  228
  239
  250
  262
  274
  287
  301
  315
  331
  347
  363
  381
  400
  419
  440
  461
  484
  508
  533
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  50
  129
  202
  210
  218
  226
  234
  243
  253
  263
  274
  285
  297
  309
  322
  336
  350
  365
  381
  398
  416
  434
  454
  474
  496
  518
  542
  567
  593
  621
  650
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -57
  -69
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -238
  -250
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  60
  133
  137
  142
  147
  152
  158
  163
  170
  176
  183
  190
  197
  205
  213
  222
  231
  240
  250
  261
  272
  283
  296
  308
  322
  336
  351
  366
  383
  400
Discount rate, %
 
  8.40
  8.82
  9.26
  9.72
  10.21
  10.72
  11.26
  11.82
  12.41
  13.03
  13.68
  14.37
  15.09
  15.84
  16.63
  17.46
  18.34
  19.25
  20.22
  21.23
  22.29
  23.40
  24.57
  25.80
  27.09
  28.45
  29.87
  31.36
  32.93
  34.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  56
  112
  105
  98
  90
  83
  75
  67
  59
  52
  45
  38
  32
  26
  21
  17
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

El Paso Electric Company, a public utility company, engages in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity in west Texas and southern New Mexico. It generates electricity through nuclear fuel, natural gas, and coal facilities, as well as solar photovoltaic panels and wind turbines. The company owns or has ownership interests in various electrical generating facilities with a net dependable generating capability of approximately 2,055 megawatts; four 345 kilovolt (kV) transmission lines in New Mexico; and three 500 kV lines in Arizona. It distributes electricity to retail customers principally in El Paso, Texas; and Las Cruces, New Mexico. The company serves approximately 404,500 residential, commercial, industrial, public authority, and wholesale customers. El Paso Electric Company was founded in 1901 and is based in El Paso, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  El Paso Electric (EE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.9
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -57.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -17%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 111.3%
Total Debt to Equity 126.6%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Total Capital 4.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Equity 9.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 41.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.8%
Operating Margin 22%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 17%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Net Profit Margin 10.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Effective Tax Rate 35.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.4%
Payout Ratio 51.5%

EE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $887 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by El Paso Electric. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of El Paso Electric. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.4%, whose default value for EE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of El Paso Electric, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of El Paso Electric.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.3% for El Paso Electric.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for El Paso Electric. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EE are equal to 25.3%.

Life of production assets of 1.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in El Paso Electric operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EE is equal to 2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1074 million for El Paso Electric - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 40.609 million for El Paso Electric is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of El Paso Electric at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.1 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ El Paso Electric reports 1Q loss   [06:20AM  Associated Press]
▶ El Paso Electric posts 4Q profit   [07:14AM  Associated Press]
▶ El Paso Electric Files 2017 Texas Rate Case   [Feb-13-17 12:57PM  Business Wire]
▶ El Paso Electric Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Jan-26-17 07:17PM  Business Wire]
▶ Is El Paso Electric Company (EE) Worthy of Your Portfolio?   [Dec-12-16 06:34PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Crazy About Tri Pointe Homes Inc (TPH)   [Nov-28-16 05:44AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ El Paso Electric Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-17-16 07:44PM  Business Wire]
▶ El Paso Electric Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Jul-22-16 06:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ El Paso Electric Sets New Peak   [Jul-15-16 02:34PM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of EE Financial statements of EE Annual reports of EE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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