Intrinsic value of El Paso Electric - EE

Previous Close

$58.75

  Intrinsic Value

$22.88

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-61%

Previous close

$58.75

 
Intrinsic value

$22.88

 
Up/down potential

-61%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of EE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.35
  4.40
  4.46
  4.51
  4.56
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.93
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
Revenue, $m
  887
  926
  967
  1,011
  1,057
  1,106
  1,157
  1,211
  1,268
  1,329
  1,392
  1,459
  1,529
  1,603
  1,680
  1,762
  1,848
  1,938
  2,033
  2,133
  2,238
  2,348
  2,464
  2,586
  2,714
  2,848
  2,989
  3,138
  3,294
  3,457
  3,629
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  768
  802
  838
  876
  917
  959
  1,004
  1,052
  1,101
  1,154
  1,209
  1,267
  1,329
  1,393
  1,461
  1,532
  1,607
  1,686
  1,768
  1,855
  1,947
  2,043
  2,144
  2,250
  2,361
  2,478
  2,601
  2,730
  2,866
  3,009
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  692
  768
  802
  838
  876
  917
  959
  1,004
  1,052
  1,101
  1,154
  1,209
  1,267
  1,329
  1,393
  1,461
  1,532
  1,607
  1,686
  1,768
  1,855
  1,947
  2,043
  2,144
  2,250
  2,361
  2,478
  2,601
  2,730
  2,866
  3,009
Operating income, $m
  195
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  274
  287
  301
  316
  331
  348
  365
  383
  402
  421
  442
  464
  487
  511
  537
  563
  591
  621
EBITDA, $m
  340
  208
  217
  227
  238
  249
  260
  272
  285
  299
  313
  328
  344
  360
  378
  396
  415
  436
  457
  480
  503
  528
  554
  581
  610
  640
  672
  705
  740
  777
  816
Interest expense (income), $m
  70
  72
  77
  83
  89
  95
  102
  109
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  160
  170
  181
  192
  204
  216
  229
  243
  257
  272
  288
  305
  323
  341
  360
  381
  402
  425
Earnings before tax, $m
  151
  87
  88
  90
  92
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  108
  111
  114
  117
  121
  124
  128
  132
  136
  140
  144
  149
  154
  159
  165
  170
  176
  183
  189
  196
Tax expense, $m
  54
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  34
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  44
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
Net income, $m
  97
  63
  64
  66
  67
  69
  70
  72
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  86
  88
  91
  93
  96
  99
  102
  105
  109
  112
  116
  120
  124
  129
  133
  138
  143

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,376
  3,521
  3,678
  3,844
  4,019
  4,205
  4,400
  4,606
  4,823
  5,052
  5,293
  5,546
  5,813
  6,094
  6,389
  6,700
  7,027
  7,370
  7,731
  8,111
  8,510
  8,929
  9,370
  9,833
  10,319
  10,830
  11,367
  11,931
  12,523
  13,145
  13,799
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,368
  3,521
  3,678
  3,844
  4,019
  4,205
  4,400
  4,606
  4,823
  5,052
  5,293
  5,546
  5,813
  6,094
  6,389
  6,700
  7,027
  7,370
  7,731
  8,111
  8,510
  8,929
  9,370
  9,833
  10,319
  10,830
  11,367
  11,931
  12,523
  13,145
  13,799
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
Average production assets, $m
  239
  249
  260
  272
  284
  297
  311
  326
  341
  357
  374
  392
  411
  431
  452
  474
  497
  521
  547
  574
  602
  632
  663
  696
  730
  766
  804
  844
  886
  930
  976
Working capital, $m
  -139
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
Total debt, $m
  1,360
  1,456
  1,563
  1,676
  1,795
  1,921
  2,054
  2,195
  2,342
  2,498
  2,662
  2,835
  3,017
  3,208
  3,409
  3,621
  3,843
  4,077
  4,323
  4,581
  4,853
  5,139
  5,439
  5,754
  6,085
  6,433
  6,799
  7,183
  7,586
  8,010
  8,455
Total liabilities, $m
  2,302
  2,398
  2,505
  2,618
  2,737
  2,863
  2,996
  3,137
  3,284
  3,440
  3,604
  3,777
  3,959
  4,150
  4,351
  4,563
  4,785
  5,019
  5,265
  5,523
  5,795
  6,081
  6,381
  6,696
  7,027
  7,375
  7,741
  8,125
  8,528
  8,952
  9,397
Total equity, $m
  1,074
  1,123
  1,173
  1,226
  1,282
  1,341
  1,404
  1,469
  1,539
  1,611
  1,688
  1,769
  1,854
  1,944
  2,038
  2,137
  2,241
  2,351
  2,466
  2,587
  2,715
  2,848
  2,989
  3,137
  3,292
  3,455
  3,626
  3,806
  3,995
  4,193
  4,402
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,376
  3,521
  3,678
  3,844
  4,019
  4,204
  4,400
  4,606
  4,823
  5,051
  5,292
  5,546
  5,813
  6,094
  6,389
  6,700
  7,026
  7,370
  7,731
  8,110
  8,510
  8,929
  9,370
  9,833
  10,319
  10,830
  11,367
  11,931
  12,523
  13,145
  13,799
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.266
  1.300
  1.330
  1.370
  1.400
  1.430
  1.460
  1.490
  1.520
  1.550
  1.580
  1.600
  1.630
  1.650
  1.670
  1.690
  1.710
  1.730
  1.750
  1.770
  1.790
  1.800
  1.820
  1.830
  1.850
  1.860
  1.880
  1.890
  1.900
  1.910
  1.920
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.317
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  97
  63
  64
  66
  67
  69
  70
  72
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  86
  88
  91
  93
  96
  99
  102
  105
  109
  112
  116
  120
  124
  129
  133
  138
  143
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  145
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  115
  120
  126
  133
  139
  146
  153
  161
  169
  177
  186
  195
Funds from operations, $m
  183
  113
  116
  120
  124
  128
  132
  137
  142
  147
  152
  158
  163
  170
  176
  183
  190
  198
  205
  214
  223
  232
  241
  252
  262
  273
  285
  297
  310
  324
  338
Change in working capital, $m
  -48
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  231
  112
  116
  119
  123
  127
  131
  136
  141
  145
  151
  156
  162
  168
  174
  181
  188
  196
  204
  212
  220
  230
  239
  249
  260
  271
  282
  294
  307
  321
  335
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -186
New CAPEX, $m
  -268
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -276
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -166
  -173
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -211
  -221
  -232
Free cash flow, $m
  -45
  54
  55
  55
  56
  57
  58
  59
  60
  61
  62
  63
  65
  66
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  77
  79
  82
  84
  86
  89
  91
  94
  97
  100
  103
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  97
  104
  107
  113
  119
  126
  133
  140
  148
  156
  164
  173
  182
  191
  201
  212
  222
  234
  246
  259
  272
  286
  300
  315
  331
  348
  366
  384
  403
  424
  445
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  2
  4
  6
  9
  11
  14
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  32
  35
  39
  43
  47
  51
  56
  60
  65
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  95
  104
  107
  113
  119
  126
  133
  140
  148
  156
  164
  175
  186
  197
  210
  223
  236
  250
  265
  281
  297
  314
  332
  350
  370
  391
  413
  435
  459
  484
  510
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  50
  158
  162
  169
  176
  183
  191
  199
  208
  217
  226
  238
  250
  263
  277
  291
  307
  322
  339
  356
  374
  393
  413
  434
  456
  479
  504
  529
  556
  584
  613
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -57
  -49
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -208
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  109
  112
  116
  120
  124
  129
  134
  139
  144
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  192
  202
  213
  224
  235
  247
  260
  273
  287
  301
  316
  332
  349
  367
  385
  405
Discount rate, %
 
  8.40
  8.82
  9.26
  9.72
  10.21
  10.72
  11.26
  11.82
  12.41
  13.03
  13.68
  14.37
  15.09
  15.84
  16.63
  17.46
  18.34
  19.25
  20.22
  21.23
  22.29
  23.40
  24.57
  25.80
  27.09
  28.45
  29.87
  31.36
  32.93
  34.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  101
  94
  89
  83
  76
  70
  63
  57
  50
  44
  38
  33
  28
  23
  19
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.7
  99.5
  99.3
  99.0
  98.7
  98.3
  97.9
  97.5
  97.0
  96.5
  96.0
  95.5
  94.9
  94.3
  93.7
  93.1
  92.5
  91.9

El Paso Electric Company is a public utility company. As of December 31, 2016, the Company was engaged in the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity in an area of approximately 10,000 square miles in west Texas and southern New Mexico. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned or had ownership interests in several electrical generating facilities providing it with a generating capability of approximately 2,080 megawatts (MW). The Company's energy sources consists of nuclear fuel, natural gas, coal, purchased power and generated by Company-owned solar photovoltaic panels. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had power purchase agreements for 107 MW from solar photovoltaic generation facilities. As of December 31, 2016, the Company served approximately 411,100 residential, commercial, industrial, public authority and wholesale customers. The Company distributes electricity to retail customers principally in El Paso, Texas and Las Cruces, New Mexico.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  El Paso Electric (EE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.5
Price to Sales 2.7
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -64.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -17%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 111.3%
Total Debt to Equity 126.6%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Total Capital 4.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Equity 9.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 41.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.8%
Operating Margin 22%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 17%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Net Profit Margin 10.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Effective Tax Rate 35.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.4%
Payout Ratio 51.5%

EE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $887 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by El Paso Electric. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of El Paso Electric. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.4%, whose default value for EE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of El Paso Electric, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of El Paso Electric.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.3% for El Paso Electric.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for El Paso Electric. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EE are equal to 26.9%.

Life of production assets of 1.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in El Paso Electric operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EE is equal to 2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1074 million for El Paso Electric - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 40.524 million for El Paso Electric is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of El Paso Electric at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ El Paso Electric posts 3Q profit   [07:32AM  Associated Press]
▶ El Paso Electric Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Oct-26-17 02:39PM  Business Wire]
▶ El Paso Electric posts 2Q profit   [Aug-02-17 09:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ El Paso Electric Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Jul-27-17 05:06PM  Business Wire]
▶ El Paso Electric reports 1Q loss   [06:20AM  Associated Press]
▶ El Paso Electric posts 4Q profit   [07:14AM  Associated Press]
▶ El Paso Electric Files 2017 Texas Rate Case   [Feb-13-17 12:57PM  Business Wire]
▶ El Paso Electric Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Jan-26-17 07:17PM  Business Wire]
▶ Is El Paso Electric Company (EE) Worthy of Your Portfolio?   [Dec-12-16 06:34PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Crazy About Tri Pointe Homes Inc (TPH)   [Nov-28-16 05:44AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ El Paso Electric Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-17-16 07:44PM  Business Wire]
▶ El Paso Electric Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Jul-22-16 06:01PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of EE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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