Intrinsic value of Ellington Financial - EFC

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$16.26

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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$16.26

 
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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as EFC.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EFC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -23.81
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  80
  82
  83
  86
  88
  91
  94
  97
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  172
  180
  189
  198
  207
  217
  228
  239
  250
  262
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  44
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
Operating income, $m
  36
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  69
  72
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
EBITDA, $m
  36
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  69
  72
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
Interest expense (income), $m
  15
  0
  33
  74
  120
  173
  231
  295
  365
  441
  522
  609
  702
  802
  908
  1,021
  1,140
  1,267
  1,401
  1,543
  1,693
  1,851
  2,018
  2,194
  2,380
  2,575
  2,781
  2,998
  3,226
  3,466
  3,719
Earnings before tax, $m
  -16
  52
  21
  -19
  -64
  -115
  -172
  -234
  -301
  -374
  -453
  -538
  -628
  -724
  -827
  -936
  -1,052
  -1,175
  -1,305
  -1,443
  -1,588
  -1,741
  -1,903
  -2,074
  -2,254
  -2,443
  -2,643
  -2,853
  -3,074
  -3,307
  -3,552
Tax expense, $m
  0
  14
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -16
  38
  15
  -19
  -64
  -115
  -172
  -234
  -301
  -374
  -453
  -538
  -628
  -724
  -827
  -936
  -1,052
  -1,175
  -1,305
  -1,443
  -1,588
  -1,741
  -1,903
  -2,074
  -2,254
  -2,443
  -2,643
  -2,853
  -3,074
  -3,307
  -3,552

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  123
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,413
  2,331
  2,385
  2,446
  2,515
  2,591
  2,675
  2,766
  2,865
  2,971
  3,085
  3,207
  3,337
  3,476
  3,623
  3,779
  3,945
  4,120
  4,306
  4,502
  4,708
  4,927
  5,157
  5,399
  5,655
  5,924
  6,208
  6,506
  6,820
  7,150
  7,498
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,290
  2,331
  2,385
  2,446
  2,515
  2,591
  2,675
  2,766
  2,865
  2,971
  3,085
  3,207
  3,337
  3,476
  3,623
  3,779
  3,945
  4,120
  4,306
  4,502
  4,708
  4,927
  5,157
  5,399
  5,655
  5,924
  6,208
  6,506
  6,820
  7,150
  7,498
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
  0.035
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  -101
  -103
  -106
  -109
  -112
  -116
  -120
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -171
  -179
  -187
  -195
  -204
  -213
  -223
  -234
  -245
  -257
  -269
  -282
  -296
  -310
  -325
Total debt, $m
  24
  33
  74
  120
  173
  231
  295
  365
  441
  522
  609
  702
  802
  908
  1,021
  1,140
  1,267
  1,401
  1,543
  1,693
  1,851
  2,018
  2,194
  2,380
  2,575
  2,781
  2,998
  3,226
  3,466
  3,719
  3,985
Total liabilities, $m
  1,776
  1,784
  1,825
  1,871
  1,924
  1,982
  2,046
  2,116
  2,192
  2,273
  2,360
  2,453
  2,553
  2,659
  2,772
  2,891
  3,018
  3,152
  3,294
  3,444
  3,602
  3,769
  3,945
  4,131
  4,326
  4,532
  4,749
  4,977
  5,217
  5,470
  5,736
Total equity, $m
  638
  548
  560
  575
  591
  609
  629
  650
  673
  698
  725
  754
  784
  817
  851
  888
  927
  968
  1,012
  1,058
  1,106
  1,158
  1,212
  1,269
  1,329
  1,392
  1,459
  1,529
  1,603
  1,680
  1,762
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,414
  2,332
  2,385
  2,446
  2,515
  2,591
  2,675
  2,766
  2,865
  2,971
  3,085
  3,207
  3,337
  3,476
  3,623
  3,779
  3,945
  4,120
  4,306
  4,502
  4,708
  4,927
  5,157
  5,400
  5,655
  5,924
  6,208
  6,506
  6,820
  7,150
  7,498
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.038
  0.060
  0.130
  0.210
  0.290
  0.380
  0.470
  0.560
  0.650
  0.750
  0.840
  0.930
  1.020
  1.110
  1.200
  1.280
  1.370
  1.450
  1.520
  1.600
  1.670
  1.740
  1.810
  1.880
  1.940
  2.000
  2.060
  2.110
  2.160
  2.210
  2.260
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -16
  38
  15
  -19
  -64
  -115
  -172
  -234
  -301
  -374
  -453
  -538
  -628
  -724
  -827
  -936
  -1,052
  -1,175
  -1,305
  -1,443
  -1,588
  -1,741
  -1,903
  -2,074
  -2,254
  -2,443
  -2,643
  -2,853
  -3,074
  -3,307
  -3,552
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  122
  38
  15
  -19
  -64
  -115
  -172
  -234
  -301
  -374
  -453
  -538
  -628
  -724
  -827
  -936
  -1,052
  -1,175
  -1,305
  -1,443
  -1,588
  -1,741
  -1,903
  -2,074
  -2,254
  -2,443
  -2,643
  -2,853
  -3,074
  -3,307
  -3,552
Change in working capital, $m
  52
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
Cash from operations, $m
  70
  40
  17
  -16
  -61
  -112
  -168
  -230
  -297
  -370
  -448
  -532
  -622
  -718
  -821
  -930
  -1,045
  -1,167
  -1,297
  -1,434
  -1,579
  -1,732
  -1,893
  -2,063
  -2,242
  -2,431
  -2,630
  -2,840
  -3,061
  -3,293
  -3,537
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  70
  40
  17
  -16
  -61
  -112
  -168
  -230
  -297
  -370
  -448
  -532
  -622
  -718
  -821
  -930
  -1,045
  -1,167
  -1,297
  -1,434
  -1,579
  -1,732
  -1,893
  -2,063
  -2,242
  -2,431
  -2,630
  -2,840
  -3,061
  -3,293
  -3,537
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  41
  33
  41
  47
  53
  58
  64
  70
  75
  81
  87
  93
  100
  106
  113
  120
  127
  134
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  206
  217
  228
  240
  253
  266
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  25
  72
  124
  182
  245
  313
  388
  468
  553
  645
  743
  847
  957
  1,075
  1,199
  1,330
  1,469
  1,616
  1,771
  1,935
  2,107
  2,289
  2,480
  2,682
  2,894
  3,118
  3,353
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -65
  33
  41
  47
  78
  130
  188
  252
  320
  394
  475
  561
  653
  751
  856
  967
  1,084
  1,209
  1,341
  1,480
  1,627
  1,783
  1,947
  2,121
  2,303
  2,495
  2,697
  2,910
  3,134
  3,371
  3,619
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  4
  72
  58
  31
  -9
  -54
  -104
  -160
  -222
  -288
  -361
  -439
  -523
  -612
  -708
  -810
  -918
  -1,033
  -1,155
  -1,284
  -1,421
  -1,565
  -1,717
  -1,878
  -2,047
  -2,225
  -2,414
  -2,612
  -2,820
  -3,040
  -3,271
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  94
  -9
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  99
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  163
  46
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  156
  42
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  95.0
  82.8
  66.5
  49.2
  33.8
  21.6
  12.9
  7.2
  3.8
  1.9
  0.9
  0.4
  0.2
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Ellington Financial LLC, through its subsidiary, Ellington Financial Operating Partnership LLC, operates as a specialty finance company in the United States. It primarily acquires and manages mortgage-related assets, including residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) backed by prime jumbo, Alternative A-paper, manufactured housing, and subprime residential mortgage loans; RMBS for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the U.S. government agency or the U.S. government-sponsored entity; residential mortgage loans; commercial mortgage-backed securities; commercial mortgage loans and other commercial real estate debt; mortgage servicing rights; and real property and mortgage-related derivatives. The company also invests in corporate debt and equity securities and derivatives, consumer loans and asset-backed securities backed by consumer and commercial assets, and non-mortgage-related derivatives, as well as other financial assets, including private debt and equity investments in mortgage related entities. Ellington Financial LLC was founded in 2007 and is based in Old Greenwich, Connecticut.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ellington Financial (EFC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -32.8
Price to Sales 6.6
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -23.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 3.8%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Return On Total Capital -2.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Return On Equity -2.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 67.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 73.7%
EBITDA Margin -1.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.3%
Operating Margin 45%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 57.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -20%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.7%
Net Profit Margin -20%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio -406.3%

EFC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EFC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $80 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ellington Financial. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ellington Financial. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EFC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EFC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ellington Financial, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ellington Financial.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EFC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 36.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EFC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 100% for Ellington Financial.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ellington Financial. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EFC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EFC are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ellington Financial operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EFC is equal to -123.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $638 million for Ellington Financial - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 32.356 million for Ellington Financial is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ellington Financial at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Ellington Financial LLC Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [May-04-17 04:48PM  Business Wire]
▶ Ellington Financial LLC 2016 K-1 Tax Package Now Available   [Mar-24-17 12:33PM  Business Wire]
▶ Ellington Financial LLC Reports Fourth Quarter 2016 Results   [Feb-13-17 08:20PM  Business Wire]
▶ How ConnectOne Bancorp Inc (CNOB) Stacks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-14-16 04:52AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Merrill Lynch Has 4 Buy-Rated Stocks That Yield at Least 9%   [Sep-02-16 09:55AM  at 24/7 Wall St.]
▶ Mortgage shop securitizes loanDepot loans   [Aug-19-16 01:37PM  Reuters]
▶ [$$] Ellington Financial a Top Mortgage REIT Pick   [Jul-12-16 01:03PM  at Barrons.com]
Stock chart of EFC Financial statements of EFC Annual reports of EFC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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