Intrinsic value of eGain - EGAN

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$1.50

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EGAN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -9.21
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  84
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  187
  196
  206
  216
  226
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  81
  82
  84
  87
  89
  92
  95
  99
  102
  106
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
  184
  192
  201
  211
  221
  232
  243
  255
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  75
  81
  82
  84
  87
  89
  92
  95
  99
  102
  106
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
  184
  192
  201
  211
  221
  232
  243
  255
Operating income, $m
  -6
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
EBITDA, $m
  -1
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  2
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
Earnings before tax, $m
  -7
  -12
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
Tax expense, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -6
  -12
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  48
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  113
  118
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  113
  118
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.917
  1.892
  1.895
  1.897
  1.900
  1.902
  1.929
  1.909
  1.911
  1.915
  1.898
  1.902
  1.906
  1.909
  1.912
  1.900
  1.919
  1.908
  1.912
  1.915
  1.919
  1.910
  1.926
  1.918
  1.921
  1.925
  1.908
  1.922
  1.925
  1.912
  1.915
Average production assets, $m
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
Working capital, $m
  -1
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
Total debt, $m
  22
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
Total liabilities, $m
  52
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
Total equity, $m
  -4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  48
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  64
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  86
  89
  93
  98
  102
  108
  112
  118
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -5.500
  0.830
  1.010
  1.210
  1.430
  1.650
  1.880
  2.110
  2.350
  2.590
  2.820
  3.060
  3.290
  3.520
  3.740
  3.960
  4.170
  4.380
  4.580
  4.770
  4.950
  5.130
  5.310
  5.470
  5.630
  5.780
  5.930
  6.070
  6.210
  6.340
  6.460
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.444
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -6
  -12
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  5
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
Funds from operations, $m
  4
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  2
  -11
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
Free cash flow, $m
  2
  -13
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  2
  -18
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  39
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  2
  21
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  34
  35
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  -31
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  5
  -19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  10.40
  10.92
  11.47
  12.04
  12.64
  13.27
  13.94
  14.63
  15.37
  16.13
  16.94
  17.79
  18.68
  19.61
  20.59
  21.62
  22.70
  23.84
  25.03
  26.28
  27.59
  28.97
  30.42
  31.94
  33.54
  35.22
  36.98
  38.83
  40.77
  42.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  15.0
  4.5
  1.3
  0.4
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

eGain Corporation provides cloud-based customer engagement software solutions worldwide. The company offers eGain software suite, including eGain Mobile for business to offer its eGain-enabled engagement options to mobile users; eGain Social to monitor social networks; and eGain Community for creating and managing online communities or forums, community knowledge harvesting, and single-sourced publishing. Its eGain suite also consists of eGain Offers that helps businesses engage visitors on the company Website and Facebook fan pages; eGain Virtual Assistant for text and speech chat interactions; eGain Cobrowse that enables phone and chat reps to show customers around the Website, help locate information, and hand-hold them during complex tasks; and eGain Chat, which enables Website visitors to conduct text and video chats with agents. In addition, the company’s eGain suite comprises eGain ClickToCall that provides Website visitors to request a callback while browsing; eGain SelfService to support self-service access options; eGain CaseManager, a case logging system; and eGain Mail for processing inbound customer emails. Further, it eGain suite includes eGain KnowledgeAgent, which empowers contact center agents with AI-powered knowledge management; eGain Analytics for businesses to monitor, measure, and manage their omnichannel engagement operations and infrastructure; eGain SecureMessaging, a secure Web-based portal for customers to read confidential messages; and eGain Notify for managing and delivering automatic reminders, alerts, and updates at various stages of the customer journey. Additionally, the company offers implementation, solution development, systems integration, and training services. It serves retail, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, outsourced services, technology, utilities, government, manufacturing, and consumer electronics industries. eGain Corporation was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  eGain (EGAN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -6.8
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book -10.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 40.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -9.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 12
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -525%
Total Debt to Equity -550%
Interest Coverage -3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.9%
Return On Total Capital -30.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -51.4%
Return On Equity 400%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -103.7%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 66.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 65.2%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.1%
Operating Margin -8.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -10.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -11%
Net Profit Margin -8.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.5%
Effective Tax Rate 14.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

EGAN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EGAN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $69 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by eGain. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of eGain. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EGAN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.4%, whose default value for EGAN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of eGain, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of eGain.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EGAN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 114.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EGAN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.5% for eGain.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for eGain. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EGAN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EGAN are equal to 12.3%.

Life of production assets of 4.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in eGain operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EGAN is equal to -17.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-4 million for eGain - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25.681 million for eGain is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of eGain at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to eGain Corp. : June 16, 2017   [Jun-16-17 03:41PM  Capital Cube]
▶ eGain expands European presence with German cloud   [Jun-01-17 04:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ EGain reports 3Q loss   [May-10-17 05:42PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to eGain Corp. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 04:40PM  Capital Cube]
▶ eGain to exhibit at Call Centre World (CCW) 2017   [Feb-16-17 03:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ eGain announces Digital+AI Day London 2017   [Feb-14-17 01:30AM  Marketwired]
▶ EGain reports 2Q loss   [Feb-09-17 05:53PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to eGain Corp. : January 12, 2017   [Jan-12-17 02:00PM  Capital Cube]
▶ eGain Appoints Maureen Ellenberger as Senior Advisor   [Oct-05-16 06:30AM  Marketwired]
▶ eGain Announces Distribution Agreement With Elisa   [Jul-06-16 11:30PM  Marketwired]
▶ eGain to Host Digital+AI Day 2016 in Chicago   [May-19-16 06:30AM  Marketwired]
▶ eGain Announces Digital Day London 2016   [Feb-03-16 06:30AM  Marketwired]
Stock chart of EGAN Financial statements of EGAN Annual reports of EGAN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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