Intrinsic value of eGain - EGAN

Previous Close

$3.42

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$3.42

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of EGAN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -15.94
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  64
  66
  67
  69
  71
  73
  76
  79
  81
  85
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  62
  64
  66
  67
  69
  71
  73
  76
  79
  81
  85
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
Operating income, $m
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
EBITDA, $m
  -1
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
Earnings before tax, $m
  -5
  -7
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -6
  -7
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  40
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  65
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  65
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.000
  1.967
  2.033
  2.000
  2.000
  2.000
  2.000
  2.000
  2.028
  1.974
  2.000
  1.976
  2.024
  2.000
  2.000
  2.000
  2.000
  2.019
  1.982
  2.000
  1.983
  1.984
  2.015
  1.986
  1.986
  2.000
  2.000
  1.988
  1.989
  1.989
  2.000
Average production assets, $m
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
Working capital, $m
  -7
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
Total debt, $m
  16
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  44
  48
  52
Total liabilities, $m
  49
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
Total equity, $m
  -10
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  39
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  82
  87
  91
  96
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -1.600
  -2.490
  -2.240
  -1.950
  -1.650
  -1.340
  -1.020
  -0.690
  -0.350
  -0.020
  0.310
  0.640
  0.970
  1.290
  1.600
  1.910
  2.210
  2.500
  2.780
  3.050
  3.310
  3.560
  3.800
  4.040
  4.260
  4.480
  4.680
  4.880
  5.070
  5.250
  5.430
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.724
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -6
  -7
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
Funds from operations, $m
  11
  -4
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  5
  -4
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
Free cash flow, $m
  5
  -5
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -6
  -22
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  30
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -6
  8
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  6
  -30
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -17
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
Discount rate, %
 
  13.70
  14.39
  15.10
  15.86
  16.65
  17.49
  18.36
  19.28
  20.24
  21.25
  22.32
  23.43
  24.60
  25.83
  27.13
  28.48
  29.91
  31.40
  32.97
  34.62
  36.35
  38.17
  40.08
  42.08
  44.18
  46.39
  48.71
  51.15
  53.71
  56.39
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -15
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  20.0
  7.9
  3.1
  1.2
  0.5
  0.2
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

eGain Corporation (eGain) provides cloud-based and on-site customer engagement software solutions. The Company optimizes service processes across the Web, social and phone channels. The Company's solutions help business to consumer (B2C) businesses to operationalize digital customer engagement strategies. The Company is engaged in the development, license, implementation and support of customer service infrastructure software solutions. The Company offers eGain solution, which is designed for B2C businesses to do business with their customers. The Company offers eGain OpenCEH, which is an engagement hub platform. The eGain suite includes Mobile applications; Social applications; Web applications; Desktop applications; Management applications and analytics; Messaging applications; eGain OpenCEH, and eGain Connectors. It provides analytics capability to various contact centers for intra-day resource measurement and management, managing operational agility, and agent productivity.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  eGain (EGAN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -15.5
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book -9.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -15.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -100%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 11
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -150%
Total Debt to Equity -160%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.3%
Return On Total Capital -50%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -53.6%
Return On Equity 85.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -38.1%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 63.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 64.1%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.6%
Operating Margin -6.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10%
Pre-Tax Margin -8.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.5%
Net Profit Margin -10.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.6%
Effective Tax Rate -20%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

EGAN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EGAN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $58 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by eGain. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of eGain. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EGAN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.7%, whose default value for EGAN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of eGain, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of eGain.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EGAN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 108.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EGAN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 10.5% for eGain.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for eGain. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EGAN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EGAN are equal to 9.5%.

Life of production assets of 6.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in eGain operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EGAN is equal to -29.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-10 million for eGain - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.23 million for eGain is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of eGain at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ EGain reports 1Q loss   [Nov-09-17 05:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to eGain Corp. : November 8, 2017   [Nov-08-17 06:00PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to eGain Corp. : October 9, 2017   [Oct-09-17 11:28AM  Capital Cube]
▶ 3 Tech Stocks Under $10 to Buy Now   [Oct-06-17 12:23PM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to eGain Corp. : September 29, 2017   [Sep-29-17 10:26AM  Capital Cube]
▶ eGain Corporation (EGAN): How Does It Impact Your Portfolio?   [Sep-22-17 09:26AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ EGain posts 4Q loss   [Sep-06-17 11:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Should You Buy eGain Corporation (EGAN) Now?   [03:44PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ ETFs with exposure to eGain Corp. : June 16, 2017   [Jun-16-17 03:41PM  Capital Cube]
▶ eGain expands European presence with German cloud   [Jun-01-17 04:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ EGain reports 3Q loss   [May-10-17 05:42PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to eGain Corp. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 04:40PM  Capital Cube]
▶ eGain to exhibit at Call Centre World (CCW) 2017   [Feb-16-17 03:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ eGain announces Digital+AI Day London 2017   [Feb-14-17 01:30AM  Marketwired]
▶ EGain reports 2Q loss   [Feb-09-17 05:53PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to eGain Corp. : January 12, 2017   [Jan-12-17 02:00PM  Capital Cube]
▶ eGain Appoints Maureen Ellenberger as Senior Advisor   [Oct-05-16 06:30AM  Marketwired]
▶ eGain Announces Distribution Agreement With Elisa   [Jul-06-16 11:30PM  Marketwired]
▶ eGain to Host Digital+AI Day 2016 in Chicago   [May-19-16 06:30AM  Marketwired]
Financial statements of EGAN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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