Intrinsic value of EastGroup Properties - EGP

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$79.20

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$79.20

 
Intrinsic value

$4.76

 
Up/down potential

-94%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as EGP.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EGP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.66
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
  7.33
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
Revenue, $m
  253
  274
  295
  318
  341
  365
  390
  417
  444
  472
  502
  532
  564
  597
  632
  668
  706
  746
  787
  830
  875
  922
  972
  1,023
  1,078
  1,134
  1,193
  1,256
  1,321
  1,389
  1,460
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  152
  164
  177
  190
  203
  217
  232
  247
  263
  279
  296
  314
  333
  352
  372
  393
  415
  438
  462
  487
  513
  541
  570
  600
  631
  664
  699
  735
  773
  813
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  55
Total operating expenses, $m
  166
  179
  191
  205
  219
  232
  247
  263
  279
  295
  312
  330
  349
  369
  389
  410
  432
  455
  479
  504
  530
  557
  586
  616
  647
  679
  713
  750
  787
  826
  868
Operating income, $m
  87
  95
  104
  113
  122
  132
  143
  154
  165
  177
  189
  202
  215
  229
  244
  259
  275
  291
  308
  327
  345
  365
  386
  408
  431
  455
  480
  506
  534
  563
  593
EBITDA, $m
  165
  179
  195
  211
  228
  245
  264
  282
  302
  323
  344
  366
  389
  414
  439
  465
  493
  521
  551
  583
  616
  650
  686
  724
  763
  805
  848
  894
  942
  992
  1,044
Interest expense (income), $m
  34
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  95
  101
  107
  113
  120
  126
  133
  141
  148
  157
  165
  174
  183
  193
  203
  214
  225
Earnings before tax, $m
  96
  56
  61
  67
  73
  79
  86
  92
  99
  107
  114
  122
  131
  139
  148
  158
  168
  178
  189
  200
  212
  225
  238
  251
  266
  281
  297
  313
  331
  349
  368
Tax expense, $m
  0
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
Net income, $m
  96
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  73
  78
  83
  89
  95
  102
  108
  115
  122
  130
  138
  146
  155
  164
  173
  184
  194
  205
  217
  229
  241
  255
  269

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,826
  1,969
  2,125
  2,286
  2,454
  2,628
  2,809
  2,997
  3,193
  3,396
  3,608
  3,829
  4,059
  4,298
  4,548
  4,809
  5,081
  5,365
  5,662
  5,972
  6,297
  6,636
  6,991
  7,363
  7,752
  8,159
  8,586
  9,033
  9,501
  9,992
  10,507
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,825
  1,969
  2,125
  2,286
  2,454
  2,628
  2,809
  2,997
  3,193
  3,396
  3,608
  3,829
  4,059
  4,298
  4,548
  4,809
  5,081
  5,365
  5,662
  5,972
  6,297
  6,636
  6,991
  7,363
  7,752
  8,159
  8,586
  9,033
  9,501
  9,992
  10,507
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
Average production assets, $m
  1,688
  1,826
  1,970
  2,119
  2,275
  2,436
  2,604
  2,779
  2,960
  3,149
  3,345
  3,550
  3,763
  3,985
  4,217
  4,459
  4,711
  4,974
  5,250
  5,537
  5,838
  6,153
  6,482
  6,826
  7,187
  7,565
  7,960
  8,375
  8,809
  9,264
  9,742
Working capital, $m
  0
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
Total debt, $m
  1,116
  1,208
  1,309
  1,414
  1,523
  1,636
  1,754
  1,876
  2,003
  2,136
  2,273
  2,417
  2,566
  2,722
  2,884
  3,054
  3,231
  3,415
  3,608
  3,810
  4,021
  4,242
  4,472
  4,714
  4,967
  5,232
  5,509
  5,799
  6,104
  6,423
  6,758
Total liabilities, $m
  1,188
  1,280
  1,381
  1,486
  1,595
  1,708
  1,826
  1,948
  2,075
  2,208
  2,345
  2,489
  2,638
  2,794
  2,956
  3,126
  3,303
  3,487
  3,680
  3,882
  4,093
  4,314
  4,544
  4,786
  5,039
  5,304
  5,581
  5,871
  6,176
  6,495
  6,830
Total equity, $m
  638
  689
  744
  800
  859
  920
  983
  1,049
  1,117
  1,189
  1,263
  1,340
  1,421
  1,504
  1,592
  1,683
  1,778
  1,878
  1,982
  2,090
  2,204
  2,323
  2,447
  2,577
  2,713
  2,856
  3,005
  3,162
  3,326
  3,497
  3,678
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,826
  1,969
  2,125
  2,286
  2,454
  2,628
  2,809
  2,997
  3,192
  3,397
  3,608
  3,829
  4,059
  4,298
  4,548
  4,809
  5,081
  5,365
  5,662
  5,972
  6,297
  6,637
  6,991
  7,363
  7,752
  8,160
  8,586
  9,033
  9,502
  9,992
  10,508
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.749
  1.750
  1.760
  1.770
  1.770
  1.780
  1.780
  1.790
  1.790
  1.800
  1.800
  1.800
  1.810
  1.810
  1.810
  1.810
  1.820
  1.820
  1.820
  1.820
  1.820
  1.830
  1.830
  1.830
  1.830
  1.830
  1.830
  1.830
  1.840
  1.840
  1.840
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  96
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  73
  78
  83
  89
  95
  102
  108
  115
  122
  130
  138
  146
  155
  164
  173
  184
  194
  205
  217
  229
  241
  255
  269
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  78
  85
  91
  98
  105
  113
  121
  129
  137
  146
  155
  164
  174
  184
  195
  206
  218
  230
  243
  256
  270
  285
  300
  316
  333
  350
  369
  388
  408
  429
  451
Funds from operations, $m
  142
  125
  136
  147
  159
  171
  183
  196
  210
  224
  238
  254
  270
  286
  303
  322
  340
  360
  381
  403
  425
  449
  474
  500
  527
  555
  585
  616
  649
  684
  720
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  139
  203
  135
  146
  157
  169
  182
  195
  208
  222
  237
  252
  268
  284
  302
  320
  339
  358
  379
  400
  423
  446
  471
  497
  524
  552
  582
  613
  646
  680
  716
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -78
  -85
  -91
  -98
  -105
  -113
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -146
  -155
  -164
  -174
  -184
  -195
  -206
  -218
  -230
  -243
  -256
  -270
  -285
  -300
  -316
  -333
  -350
  -369
  -388
  -408
  -429
New CAPEX, $m
  -255
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -155
  -161
  -168
  -174
  -181
  -189
  -196
  -205
  -213
  -222
  -232
  -242
  -252
  -263
  -275
  -288
  -301
  -315
  -329
  -345
  -361
  -378
  -396
  -414
  -434
  -455
  -477
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -186
  -216
  -229
  -241
  -253
  -266
  -281
  -295
  -310
  -326
  -342
  -360
  -377
  -396
  -416
  -437
  -458
  -481
  -505
  -531
  -557
  -585
  -614
  -645
  -677
  -711
  -746
  -783
  -822
  -863
  -906
Free cash flow, $m
  -47
  -14
  -94
  -95
  -96
  -97
  -99
  -100
  -102
  -104
  -105
  -107
  -110
  -112
  -114
  -117
  -120
  -123
  -127
  -130
  -134
  -138
  -143
  -148
  -153
  -158
  -164
  -170
  -176
  -183
  -190
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  73
  93
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
  122
  127
  132
  138
  143
  149
  156
  162
  169
  177
  185
  193
  202
  211
  221
  231
  242
  253
  265
  277
  291
  304
  319
  335
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  60
  0
  47
  46
  46
  45
  44
  44
  43
  42
  42
  41
  41
  40
  39
  39
  39
  38
  38
  37
  37
  37
  36
  36
  36
  36
  36
  36
  36
  36
  36
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  129
  93
  148
  151
  155
  158
  162
  166
  170
  174
  180
  184
  190
  196
  201
  208
  216
  223
  231
  239
  248
  258
  267
  278
  289
  301
  313
  327
  340
  355
  371
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  81
  79
  7
  10
  13
  16
  19
  22
  25
  29
  32
  36
  40
  44
  48
  52
  57
  61
  66
  71
  77
  82
  88
  94
  100
  107
  114
  121
  128
  136
  145
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -83
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  28
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  10.00
  10.50
  11.03
  11.58
  12.16
  12.76
  13.40
  14.07
  14.77
  15.51
  16.29
  17.10
  17.96
  18.86
  19.80
  20.79
  21.83
  22.92
  24.07
  25.27
  26.53
  27.86
  29.25
  30.72
  32.25
  33.86
  35.56
  37.33
  39.20
  41.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  25
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  98.4
  96.9
  95.6
  94.4
  93.3
  92.3
  91.4
  90.6
  89.8
  89.1
  88.5
  87.9
  87.4
  86.8
  86.4
  85.9
  85.5
  85.1
  84.8
  84.4
  84.1
  83.8
  83.5
  83.3
  83.0
  82.8
  82.6
  82.3
  82.1

EastGroup Properties, Inc., a real estate investment trust (REIT), focuses on the development, acquisition, and operation of industrial properties in the United States. As of December 31, 2007, it owned 202 industrial properties and 1 office building, as well as approximately 1.7 million square feet properties in Florida, Texas, Arizona, and California. The company has elected to be taxed as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income tax purposes, provided it distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its shareholders. EastGroup Properties, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Jackson, Mississippi.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  EastGroup Properties (EGP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.5
Price to Sales 10.4
Price to Book 4.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19
Price to Free Cash Flow -22.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 68.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 172.7%
Total Debt to Equity 174.9%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Return On Total Capital 5.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Equity 16.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 70.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 71.2%
EBITDA Margin 82.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 72.3%
Operating Margin 34.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 37.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.7%
Net Profit Margin 37.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 84.4%

EGP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EGP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $253 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by EastGroup Properties. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of EastGroup Properties. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EGP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10%, whose default value for EGP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of EastGroup Properties, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of EastGroup Properties.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EGP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 55.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $26 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EGP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for EastGroup Properties.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for EastGroup Properties. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EGP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EGP are equal to 667%.

Life of production assets of 21.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in EastGroup Properties operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EGP is equal to 5.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $638 million for EastGroup Properties - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.456 million for EastGroup Properties is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of EastGroup Properties at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.6 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ EastGroup Properties reports 1Q results   [Apr-20-17 04:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ EastGroup Properties Announces CFO Transition   [Mar-03-17 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is Visteon Corp (VC) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-13-16 01:42PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Eastgroup Properties Inc (EGP) Hedge Funds Are Snapping Up   [Dec-10-16 01:17PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] REIT Earnings to Diverge Along Sectors   [Oct-26-16 12:09AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] REIT Earnings to Diverge Along Sectors   [Oct-25-16 03:12PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ EastGroup Named Top Industrial REIT Pick   [Sep-28-16 10:04AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ EastGroup Properties Announces Dividend Increase   [Sep-01-16 12:32PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Genco cutting more than 50 jobs in Charlotte   [Jul-14-16 07:10AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ 2 Stocks Set to Suffer From an End of June Fed Rate Hike   [Jun-03-16 09:40AM  at 24/7 Wall St.]
▶ SunTrust Lowers Some REIT Price Targets; Neutral on EQR   [Feb-08-16 01:30PM  at Barrons.com]
Stock chart of EGP Financial statements of EGP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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