Intrinsic value of EastGroup Properties - EGP

Previous Close

$94.38

  Intrinsic Value

$4.64

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-95%

Previous close

$94.38

 
Intrinsic value

$4.64

 
Up/down potential

-95%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as EGP.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EGP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.66
  9.50
  9.05
  8.64
  8.28
  7.95
  7.66
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
  6.03
  5.93
  5.83
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
Revenue, $m
  253
  277
  302
  328
  355
  384
  413
  444
  475
  508
  543
  578
  615
  654
  694
  736
  779
  825
  872
  922
  974
  1,028
  1,084
  1,143
  1,205
  1,269
  1,337
  1,408
  1,482
  1,559
  1,641
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  154
  168
  183
  198
  214
  230
  247
  265
  283
  302
  322
  342
  364
  386
  410
  434
  459
  486
  513
  542
  572
  603
  636
  671
  707
  744
  783
  825
  868
  913
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  55
Total operating expenses, $m
  166
  181
  195
  211
  227
  243
  260
  278
  297
  315
  335
  356
  377
  400
  423
  448
  473
  499
  527
  555
  585
  616
  648
  682
  718
  755
  793
  834
  877
  921
  968
Operating income, $m
  87
  96
  107
  117
  129
  141
  153
  166
  179
  193
  207
  222
  238
  254
  271
  289
  307
  326
  346
  367
  389
  412
  436
  461
  487
  515
  543
  573
  605
  638
  673
EBITDA, $m
  165
  182
  200
  219
  239
  259
  281
  303
  326
  350
  375
  401
  428
  456
  485
  516
  548
  581
  616
  652
  690
  729
  771
  814
  859
  907
  956
  1,008
  1,063
  1,120
  1,179
Interest expense (income), $m
  34
  39
  43
  47
  51
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  157
  166
  175
  185
  195
  205
  216
  228
  240
  253
Earnings before tax, $m
  96
  57
  64
  71
  78
  85
  93
  101
  109
  118
  127
  136
  146
  156
  166
  178
  189
  201
  214
  227
  241
  255
  270
  286
  303
  320
  338
  357
  377
  398
  420
Tax expense, $m
  0
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  96
  102
  108
  113
Net income, $m
  96
  42
  47
  51
  57
  62
  68
  73
  79
  86
  92
  99
  106
  114
  122
  130
  138
  147
  156
  166
  176
  186
  197
  209
  221
  234
  247
  261
  275
  291
  307

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,826
  1,993
  2,173
  2,361
  2,557
  2,760
  2,972
  3,191
  3,419
  3,657
  3,903
  4,160
  4,426
  4,704
  4,993
  5,294
  5,608
  5,935
  6,276
  6,632
  7,004
  7,393
  7,799
  8,223
  8,667
  9,132
  9,618
  10,127
  10,660
  11,218
  11,802
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,825
  1,993
  2,173
  2,361
  2,557
  2,760
  2,972
  3,191
  3,419
  3,657
  3,903
  4,160
  4,426
  4,704
  4,993
  5,294
  5,608
  5,935
  6,276
  6,632
  7,004
  7,393
  7,799
  8,223
  8,667
  9,132
  9,618
  10,127
  10,660
  11,218
  11,802
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
Average production assets, $m
  1,688
  1,848
  2,015
  2,189
  2,371
  2,559
  2,755
  2,959
  3,170
  3,390
  3,619
  3,857
  4,104
  4,361
  4,629
  4,908
  5,199
  5,502
  5,819
  6,149
  6,494
  6,854
  7,231
  7,624
  8,036
  8,466
  8,917
  9,389
  9,883
  10,400
  10,942
Working capital, $m
  0
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
Total debt, $m
  1,116
  1,223
  1,341
  1,463
  1,590
  1,722
  1,859
  2,002
  2,151
  2,305
  2,465
  2,632
  2,805
  2,986
  3,173
  3,369
  3,573
  3,786
  4,007
  4,239
  4,481
  4,733
  4,997
  5,273
  5,562
  5,864
  6,180
  6,510
  6,857
  7,219
  7,599
Total liabilities, $m
  1,188
  1,295
  1,413
  1,535
  1,662
  1,794
  1,931
  2,074
  2,223
  2,377
  2,537
  2,704
  2,877
  3,058
  3,245
  3,441
  3,645
  3,858
  4,079
  4,311
  4,553
  4,805
  5,069
  5,345
  5,634
  5,936
  6,252
  6,582
  6,929
  7,291
  7,671
Total equity, $m
  638
  698
  761
  826
  895
  966
  1,040
  1,117
  1,197
  1,280
  1,366
  1,456
  1,549
  1,646
  1,748
  1,853
  1,963
  2,077
  2,197
  2,321
  2,451
  2,587
  2,730
  2,878
  3,034
  3,196
  3,366
  3,544
  3,731
  3,926
  4,131
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,826
  1,993
  2,174
  2,361
  2,557
  2,760
  2,971
  3,191
  3,420
  3,657
  3,903
  4,160
  4,426
  4,704
  4,993
  5,294
  5,608
  5,935
  6,276
  6,632
  7,004
  7,392
  7,799
  8,223
  8,668
  9,132
  9,618
  10,126
  10,660
  11,217
  11,802
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.749
  1.750
  1.760
  1.770
  1.780
  1.780
  1.790
  1.790
  1.800
  1.800
  1.800
  1.810
  1.810
  1.810
  1.820
  1.820
  1.820
  1.820
  1.820
  1.830
  1.830
  1.830
  1.830
  1.830
  1.830
  1.830
  1.840
  1.840
  1.840
  1.840
  1.840
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  96
  42
  47
  51
  57
  62
  68
  73
  79
  86
  92
  99
  106
  114
  122
  130
  138
  147
  156
  166
  176
  186
  197
  209
  221
  234
  247
  261
  275
  291
  307
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  78
  86
  93
  101
  110
  119
  128
  137
  147
  157
  168
  179
  190
  202
  214
  227
  241
  255
  269
  285
  301
  317
  335
  353
  372
  392
  413
  435
  458
  481
  507
Funds from operations, $m
  142
  127
  140
  153
  166
  181
  195
  211
  226
  243
  260
  278
  296
  316
  336
  357
  379
  402
  425
  450
  476
  504
  532
  562
  593
  626
  660
  695
  733
  772
  813
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  139
  126
  139
  152
  165
  179
  194
  209
  225
  241
  258
  276
  294
  314
  334
  355
  377
  399
  423
  448
  474
  501
  529
  559
  590
  622
  656
  692
  729
  768
  809
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -78
  -86
  -93
  -101
  -110
  -118
  -128
  -137
  -147
  -157
  -168
  -179
  -190
  -202
  -214
  -227
  -241
  -255
  -269
  -285
  -301
  -317
  -335
  -353
  -372
  -392
  -413
  -435
  -458
  -481
New CAPEX, $m
  -255
  -160
  -167
  -174
  -181
  -189
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -220
  -229
  -238
  -247
  -257
  -268
  -279
  -291
  -303
  -316
  -330
  -345
  -360
  -376
  -394
  -412
  -431
  -451
  -472
  -494
  -517
  -542
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -186
  -238
  -253
  -267
  -282
  -299
  -314
  -332
  -349
  -367
  -386
  -406
  -426
  -447
  -470
  -493
  -518
  -544
  -571
  -599
  -630
  -661
  -693
  -729
  -765
  -803
  -843
  -885
  -929
  -975
  -1,023
Free cash flow, $m
  -47
  -112
  -114
  -116
  -118
  -119
  -121
  -122
  -124
  -126
  -127
  -129
  -131
  -134
  -136
  -139
  -142
  -145
  -148
  -152
  -156
  -160
  -165
  -170
  -175
  -180
  -186
  -193
  -200
  -207
  -214
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  73
  108
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  148
  154
  160
  167
  173
  180
  188
  196
  204
  213
  222
  232
  242
  253
  264
  276
  289
  302
  316
  331
  346
  363
  380
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  60
  18
  17
  14
  12
  9
  6
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  129
  126
  134
  136
  139
  141
  143
  146
  148
  154
  160
  167
  173
  180
  188
  196
  204
  213
  222
  232
  242
  253
  264
  276
  289
  302
  316
  331
  346
  363
  380
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  81
  14
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  29
  33
  37
  42
  47
  52
  57
  62
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  114
  121
  130
  138
  147
  156
  166
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -83
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -119
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -155
  -163
  -170
  -178
  -186
  -195
  -205
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -46
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -54
  -53
  -52
  -51
  -50
  -49
  -48
  -47
  -47
  -46
  -45
  -44
  -43
  -43
  -42
  -42
  -41
  -41
  -40
  -40
  -39
  -39
Discount rate, %
 
  10.00
  10.50
  11.03
  11.58
  12.16
  12.76
  13.40
  14.07
  14.77
  15.51
  16.29
  17.10
  17.96
  18.86
  19.80
  20.79
  21.83
  22.92
  24.07
  25.27
  26.53
  27.86
  29.25
  30.72
  32.25
  33.86
  35.56
  37.33
  39.20
  41.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -41
  -36
  -33
  -30
  -28
  -25
  -22
  -19
  -16
  -13
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.4
  99.0
  98.6
  98.3
  98.1
  98.0
  98.0
  97.9
  97.9
  97.9
  97.9
  97.9
  97.9
  97.9
  97.9
  97.9
  97.9
  97.9
  97.9
  97.9
  97.9
  97.9
  97.9
  97.9
  97.9
  97.9
  97.9
  97.9
  97.9
  97.9

EastGroup Properties, Inc. is an equity real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company is focused on the development, acquisition and operation of industrial properties in various Sunbelt markets across the United States with an emphasis in the states of Florida, Texas, Arizona, California and North Carolina. The Company holds its properties as long-term investments but may determine to sell certain properties that no longer meet its investment criteria. The Company may provide financing in connection with such sales of property if market conditions require. In addition, the Company may provide financing to a partner or co-owner in connection with an acquisition of real estate in certain situations. The Company owned 327 industrial properties and one office building as of December 31, 2016. The Company's properties in North Carolina include Lindbergh Business Park, Nations Ford Business Park and Airport Commerce Center in Charlotte area.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  EastGroup Properties (EGP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32.8
Price to Sales 12.4
Price to Book 4.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -27.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 68.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 172.7%
Total Debt to Equity 174.9%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Return On Total Capital 5.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Equity 16.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 70.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 71.2%
EBITDA Margin 82.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 72.3%
Operating Margin 34.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 37.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.7%
Net Profit Margin 37.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 84.4%

EGP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EGP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $253 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by EastGroup Properties. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of EastGroup Properties. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EGP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10%, whose default value for EGP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of EastGroup Properties, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of EastGroup Properties.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EGP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 55.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $26 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EGP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for EastGroup Properties.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for EastGroup Properties. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EGP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EGP are equal to 667%.

Life of production assets of 21.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in EastGroup Properties operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EGP is equal to 5.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $638 million for EastGroup Properties - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 34.323 million for EastGroup Properties is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of EastGroup Properties at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ EastGroup Properties reports 3Q results   [Oct-19-17 04:30PM  Associated Press]
▶ These 3 Stocks Just Raised Their Dividends   [Sep-11-17 07:13AM  Motley Fool]
▶ EastGroup Properties reports 2Q results   [Jul-25-17 10:29PM  Associated Press]
▶ EastGroup Properties Announces Recent Business Activity   [May-30-17 05:09PM  PR Newswire]
▶ EastGroup Properties reports 1Q results   [Apr-20-17 04:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ EastGroup Properties Announces CFO Transition   [Mar-03-17 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is Visteon Corp (VC) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-13-16 01:42PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Eastgroup Properties Inc (EGP) Hedge Funds Are Snapping Up   [Dec-10-16 01:17PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] REIT Earnings to Diverge Along Sectors   [Oct-26-16 12:09AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] REIT Earnings to Diverge Along Sectors   [Oct-25-16 03:12PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ EastGroup Named Top Industrial REIT Pick   [Sep-28-16 10:04AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ EastGroup Properties Announces Dividend Increase   [Sep-01-16 12:32PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Genco cutting more than 50 jobs in Charlotte   [Jul-14-16 07:10AM  at bizjournals.com]
Financial statements of EGP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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