Intrinsic value of EastGroup Properties - EGP

Previous Close

$90.71

  Intrinsic Value

$4.63

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-95%

  Value-price divergence*

-3%

Previous close

$90.71

 
Intrinsic value

$4.63

 
Up/down potential

-95%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-3%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as EGP.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EGP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.66
  9.70
  9.23
  8.81
  8.43
  8.08
  7.78
  7.50
  7.25
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.47
  6.33
  6.19
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.71
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.42
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
Revenue, $m
  253
  278
  303
  330
  358
  387
  417
  448
  480
  514
  549
  586
  623
  663
  704
  747
  791
  838
  886
  937
  990
  1,045
  1,102
  1,163
  1,226
  1,291
  1,360
  1,432
  1,508
  1,587
  1,670
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  155
  169
  184
  199
  215
  232
  249
  267
  286
  306
  326
  347
  369
  392
  416
  440
  466
  493
  521
  551
  582
  614
  647
  682
  719
  757
  797
  839
  883
  930
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  55
Total operating expenses, $m
  166
  182
  196
  212
  228
  244
  262
  280
  299
  318
  339
  360
  382
  405
  429
  454
  479
  506
  534
  563
  594
  626
  659
  693
  729
  767
  806
  848
  891
  936
  985
Operating income, $m
  87
  96
  107
  118
  130
  142
  154
  168
  181
  195
  210
  226
  241
  258
  275
  293
  312
  332
  352
  374
  396
  420
  444
  470
  496
  524
  554
  585
  617
  651
  686
EBITDA, $m
  165
  182
  201
  220
  240
  261
  283
  306
  330
  354
  380
  406
  434
  463
  493
  524
  557
  591
  626
  663
  702
  742
  784
  829
  875
  923
  974
  1,027
  1,082
  1,141
  1,202
Interest expense (income), $m
  34
  39
  43
  47
  51
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  87
  93
  100
  106
  113
  120
  127
  135
  143
  151
  159
  168
  178
  188
  198
  209
  220
  232
  244
  257
Earnings before tax, $m
  96
  57
  64
  71
  78
  86
  94
  102
  110
  119
  128
  138
  148
  159
  169
  181
  193
  205
  218
  231
  245
  260
  276
  292
  309
  326
  345
  364
  385
  406
  429
Tax expense, $m
  0
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
Net income, $m
  96
  42
  47
  52
  57
  63
  68
  74
  81
  87
  94
  101
  108
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  159
  169
  179
  190
  201
  213
  225
  238
  252
  266
  281
  297
  313

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,826
  1,997
  2,181
  2,373
  2,573
  2,781
  2,997
  3,222
  3,456
  3,698
  3,950
  4,213
  4,485
  4,769
  5,065
  5,372
  5,693
  6,027
  6,376
  6,740
  7,119
  7,516
  7,931
  8,364
  8,817
  9,291
  9,787
  10,306
  10,849
  11,418
  12,014
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,825
  1,997
  2,181
  2,373
  2,573
  2,781
  2,997
  3,222
  3,456
  3,698
  3,950
  4,213
  4,485
  4,769
  5,065
  5,372
  5,693
  6,027
  6,376
  6,740
  7,119
  7,516
  7,931
  8,364
  8,817
  9,291
  9,787
  10,306
  10,849
  11,418
  12,014
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
Average production assets, $m
  1,688
  1,851
  2,022
  2,200
  2,386
  2,578
  2,779
  2,987
  3,204
  3,429
  3,663
  3,906
  4,159
  4,422
  4,696
  4,981
  5,278
  5,588
  5,911
  6,249
  6,601
  6,968
  7,353
  7,754
  8,174
  8,614
  9,073
  9,555
  10,059
  10,586
  11,139
Working capital, $m
  0
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
Total debt, $m
  1,116
  1,226
  1,346
  1,470
  1,600
  1,736
  1,876
  2,022
  2,174
  2,332
  2,496
  2,666
  2,844
  3,028
  3,220
  3,420
  3,628
  3,846
  4,072
  4,309
  4,556
  4,813
  5,083
  5,364
  5,659
  5,967
  6,289
  6,627
  6,980
  7,350
  7,737
Total liabilities, $m
  1,188
  1,298
  1,418
  1,542
  1,672
  1,808
  1,948
  2,094
  2,246
  2,404
  2,568
  2,738
  2,916
  3,100
  3,292
  3,492
  3,700
  3,918
  4,144
  4,381
  4,628
  4,885
  5,155
  5,436
  5,731
  6,039
  6,361
  6,699
  7,052
  7,422
  7,809
Total equity, $m
  638
  699
  763
  831
  901
  973
  1,049
  1,128
  1,209
  1,294
  1,383
  1,474
  1,570
  1,669
  1,773
  1,880
  1,993
  2,110
  2,232
  2,359
  2,492
  2,631
  2,776
  2,927
  3,086
  3,252
  3,425
  3,607
  3,797
  3,996
  4,205
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,826
  1,997
  2,181
  2,373
  2,573
  2,781
  2,997
  3,222
  3,455
  3,698
  3,951
  4,212
  4,486
  4,769
  5,065
  5,372
  5,693
  6,028
  6,376
  6,740
  7,120
  7,516
  7,931
  8,363
  8,817
  9,291
  9,786
  10,306
  10,849
  11,418
  12,014
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.749
  1.750
  1.760
  1.770
  1.780
  1.780
  1.790
  1.790
  1.800
  1.800
  1.810
  1.810
  1.810
  1.810
  1.820
  1.820
  1.820
  1.820
  1.820
  1.830
  1.830
  1.830
  1.830
  1.830
  1.830
  1.840
  1.840
  1.840
  1.840
  1.840
  1.840
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  96
  42
  47
  52
  57
  63
  68
  74
  81
  87
  94
  101
  108
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  159
  169
  179
  190
  201
  213
  225
  238
  252
  266
  281
  297
  313
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  78
  86
  94
  102
  111
  119
  129
  138
  148
  159
  170
  181
  193
  205
  217
  231
  244
  259
  274
  289
  306
  323
  340
  359
  378
  399
  420
  442
  466
  490
  516
Funds from operations, $m
  142
  128
  141
  154
  168
  182
  197
  213
  229
  246
  263
  282
  301
  320
  341
  363
  385
  408
  433
  458
  485
  512
  542
  572
  604
  637
  672
  708
  747
  787
  829
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  139
  126
  139
  152
  166
  181
  196
  211
  227
  244
  262
  280
  299
  318
  339
  360
  383
  406
  430
  456
  482
  510
  539
  569
  601
  634
  668
  705
  743
  783
  824
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -78
  -86
  -94
  -102
  -110
  -119
  -129
  -138
  -148
  -159
  -170
  -181
  -193
  -205
  -217
  -231
  -244
  -259
  -274
  -289
  -306
  -323
  -340
  -359
  -378
  -399
  -420
  -442
  -466
  -490
New CAPEX, $m
  -255
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -200
  -208
  -217
  -225
  -234
  -243
  -253
  -263
  -274
  -285
  -297
  -310
  -323
  -337
  -352
  -368
  -384
  -402
  -420
  -439
  -460
  -481
  -504
  -528
  -553
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -186
  -242
  -257
  -272
  -287
  -303
  -319
  -337
  -355
  -373
  -393
  -413
  -434
  -456
  -479
  -502
  -528
  -554
  -582
  -611
  -641
  -674
  -707
  -742
  -779
  -817
  -859
  -901
  -946
  -994
  -1,043
Free cash flow, $m
  -47
  -115
  -117
  -119
  -121
  -123
  -124
  -126
  -127
  -129
  -131
  -133
  -135
  -137
  -140
  -142
  -145
  -148
  -152
  -155
  -159
  -164
  -168
  -173
  -178
  -184
  -190
  -197
  -203
  -211
  -218
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  73
  111
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  146
  152
  158
  164
  170
  177
  184
  192
  200
  208
  217
  227
  236
  247
  258
  269
  282
  294
  308
  322
  337
  353
  370
  388
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  60
  19
  18
  15
  13
  10
  7
  4
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  129
  130
  138
  140
  143
  145
  148
  150
  153
  158
  164
  170
  177
  184
  192
  200
  208
  217
  227
  236
  247
  258
  269
  282
  294
  308
  322
  337
  353
  370
  388
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  81
  14
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  25
  29
  33
  38
  42
  47
  52
  58
  63
  69
  75
  81
  87
  94
  101
  108
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  159
  169
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -83
  -61
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -190
  -199
  -209
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -46
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -56
  -55
  -54
  -53
  -52
  -51
  -50
  -49
  -48
  -47
  -46
  -45
  -45
  -44
  -43
  -43
  -42
  -41
  -41
  -40
  -40
  -40
Discount rate, %
 
  10.00
  10.50
  11.03
  11.58
  12.16
  12.76
  13.40
  14.07
  14.77
  15.51
  16.29
  17.10
  17.96
  18.86
  19.80
  20.79
  21.83
  22.92
  24.07
  25.27
  26.53
  27.86
  29.25
  30.72
  32.25
  33.86
  35.56
  37.33
  39.20
  41.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -42
  -36
  -34
  -31
  -28
  -25
  -22
  -20
  -16
  -13
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.4
  98.9
  98.5
  98.2
  97.9
  97.8
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7

EastGroup Properties, Inc. is an equity real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company is focused on the development, acquisition and operation of industrial properties in various Sunbelt markets across the United States with an emphasis in the states of Florida, Texas, Arizona, California and North Carolina. The Company holds its properties as long-term investments but may determine to sell certain properties that no longer meet its investment criteria. The Company may provide financing in connection with such sales of property if market conditions require. In addition, the Company may provide financing to a partner or co-owner in connection with an acquisition of real estate in certain situations. The Company owned 327 industrial properties and one office building as of December 31, 2016. The Company's properties in North Carolina include Lindbergh Business Park, Nations Ford Business Park and Airport Commerce Center in Charlotte area.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  EastGroup Properties (EGP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 31.5
Price to Sales 12
Price to Book 4.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -26.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 68.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 172.7%
Total Debt to Equity 174.9%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Return On Total Capital 5.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Equity 16.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 70.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 71.2%
EBITDA Margin 82.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 72.3%
Operating Margin 34.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 37.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.7%
Net Profit Margin 37.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 84.4%

EGP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EGP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $253 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by EastGroup Properties. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of EastGroup Properties. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EGP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10%, whose default value for EGP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of EastGroup Properties, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of EastGroup Properties.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EGP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 55.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $26 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EGP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for EastGroup Properties.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for EastGroup Properties. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EGP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EGP are equal to 667%.

Life of production assets of 21.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in EastGroup Properties operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EGP is equal to 5.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $638 million for EastGroup Properties - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 34.431 million for EastGroup Properties is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of EastGroup Properties at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ These 3 Stocks Just Raised Their Dividends   [Sep-11-17 07:13AM  Motley Fool]
▶ EastGroup Properties reports 2Q results   [Jul-25-17 10:29PM  Associated Press]
▶ EastGroup Properties Announces Recent Business Activity   [May-30-17 05:09PM  PR Newswire]
▶ EastGroup Properties reports 1Q results   [Apr-20-17 04:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ EastGroup Properties Announces CFO Transition   [Mar-03-17 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is Visteon Corp (VC) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-13-16 01:42PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Eastgroup Properties Inc (EGP) Hedge Funds Are Snapping Up   [Dec-10-16 01:17PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] REIT Earnings to Diverge Along Sectors   [Oct-26-16 12:09AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] REIT Earnings to Diverge Along Sectors   [Oct-25-16 03:12PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ EastGroup Named Top Industrial REIT Pick   [Sep-28-16 10:04AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ EastGroup Properties Announces Dividend Increase   [Sep-01-16 12:32PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Genco cutting more than 50 jobs in Charlotte   [Jul-14-16 07:10AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ 2 Stocks Set to Suffer From an End of June Fed Rate Hike   [Jun-03-16 09:40AM  at 24/7 Wall St.]
Financial statements of EGP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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