Intrinsic value of EastGroup Properties - EGP

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$81.09

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$81.09

 
Intrinsic value

$4.72

 
Up/down potential

-94%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as EGP.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EGP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.66
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
Revenue, $m
  253
  269
  287
  304
  323
  342
  362
  383
  405
  428
  452
  477
  503
  530
  559
  589
  620
  653
  687
  723
  761
  800
  841
  885
  930
  978
  1,028
  1,080
  1,135
  1,193
  1,253
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  150
  160
  170
  180
  191
  202
  213
  226
  238
  252
  266
  280
  295
  311
  328
  345
  363
  382
  402
  423
  445
  468
  492
  518
  544
  572
  601
  632
  664
  697
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  55
Total operating expenses, $m
  166
  177
  187
  198
  209
  220
  232
  244
  258
  270
  285
  300
  315
  331
  348
  366
  384
  403
  423
  444
  466
  489
  513
  538
  565
  592
  621
  652
  684
  717
  752
Operating income, $m
  87
  93
  100
  107
  114
  122
  130
  139
  148
  157
  167
  177
  188
  199
  211
  223
  236
  250
  264
  279
  295
  311
  328
  346
  365
  385
  406
  428
  451
  476
  501
EBITDA, $m
  165
  176
  188
  201
  214
  228
  242
  257
  273
  290
  307
  325
  343
  363
  384
  405
  428
  452
  476
  502
  530
  558
  588
  620
  653
  687
  724
  762
  802
  844
  888
Interest expense (income), $m
  34
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  71
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166
  174
  183
  193
Earnings before tax, $m
  96
  54
  58
  62
  67
  72
  77
  82
  88
  93
  100
  106
  113
  120
  127
  134
  143
  151
  160
  169
  179
  189
  200
  211
  223
  236
  249
  263
  277
  292
  308
Tax expense, $m
  0
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
Net income, $m
  96
  39
  42
  46
  49
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
  110
  117
  123
  131
  138
  146
  154
  163
  172
  182
  192
  202
  213
  225

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,826
  1,938
  2,062
  2,190
  2,323
  2,462
  2,607
  2,758
  2,916
  3,080
  3,252
  3,432
  3,620
  3,816
  4,021
  4,236
  4,461
  4,697
  4,943
  5,202
  5,472
  5,756
  6,053
  6,365
  6,691
  7,034
  7,393
  7,770
  8,165
  8,580
  9,015
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,825
  1,938
  2,062
  2,190
  2,323
  2,462
  2,607
  2,758
  2,916
  3,080
  3,252
  3,432
  3,620
  3,816
  4,021
  4,236
  4,461
  4,697
  4,943
  5,202
  5,472
  5,756
  6,053
  6,365
  6,691
  7,034
  7,393
  7,770
  8,165
  8,580
  9,015
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
Average production assets, $m
  1,688
  1,797
  1,911
  2,030
  2,154
  2,283
  2,417
  2,557
  2,703
  2,856
  3,015
  3,182
  3,356
  3,538
  3,728
  3,928
  4,136
  4,354
  4,583
  4,823
  5,073
  5,336
  5,612
  5,901
  6,204
  6,521
  6,854
  7,204
  7,570
  7,955
  8,358
Working capital, $m
  0
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
Total debt, $m
  1,116
  1,188
  1,268
  1,351
  1,438
  1,528
  1,623
  1,721
  1,823
  1,930
  2,042
  2,159
  2,281
  2,408
  2,542
  2,682
  2,828
  2,981
  3,141
  3,309
  3,485
  3,669
  3,862
  4,065
  4,277
  4,500
  4,734
  4,978
  5,235
  5,505
  5,788
Total liabilities, $m
  1,188
  1,260
  1,340
  1,423
  1,510
  1,600
  1,695
  1,793
  1,895
  2,002
  2,114
  2,231
  2,353
  2,480
  2,614
  2,754
  2,900
  3,053
  3,213
  3,381
  3,557
  3,741
  3,934
  4,137
  4,349
  4,572
  4,806
  5,050
  5,307
  5,577
  5,860
Total equity, $m
  638
  678
  722
  766
  813
  862
  912
  965
  1,021
  1,078
  1,138
  1,201
  1,267
  1,336
  1,408
  1,483
  1,561
  1,644
  1,730
  1,821
  1,915
  2,015
  2,119
  2,228
  2,342
  2,462
  2,588
  2,719
  2,858
  3,003
  3,155
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,826
  1,938
  2,062
  2,189
  2,323
  2,462
  2,607
  2,758
  2,916
  3,080
  3,252
  3,432
  3,620
  3,816
  4,022
  4,237
  4,461
  4,697
  4,943
  5,202
  5,472
  5,756
  6,053
  6,365
  6,691
  7,034
  7,394
  7,769
  8,165
  8,580
  9,015
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.749
  1.750
  1.760
  1.760
  1.770
  1.770
  1.780
  1.780
  1.790
  1.790
  1.790
  1.800
  1.800
  1.800
  1.810
  1.810
  1.810
  1.810
  1.820
  1.820
  1.820
  1.820
  1.820
  1.820
  1.830
  1.830
  1.830
  1.830
  1.830
  1.830
  1.830
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  96
  39
  42
  46
  49
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
  110
  117
  123
  131
  138
  146
  154
  163
  172
  182
  192
  202
  213
  225
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  78
  83
  89
  94
  100
  106
  112
  118
  125
  132
  140
  147
  155
  164
  173
  182
  191
  202
  212
  223
  235
  247
  260
  273
  287
  302
  317
  334
  350
  368
  387
Funds from operations, $m
  142
  123
  131
  140
  149
  158
  168
  178
  189
  201
  212
  225
  238
  251
  265
  280
  296
  312
  329
  347
  365
  385
  406
  427
  450
  474
  499
  525
  553
  582
  612
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  139
  200
  130
  139
  148
  157
  167
  177
  188
  199
  211
  223
  236
  250
  264
  278
  294
  310
  327
  345
  364
  383
  404
  425
  448
  471
  496
  523
  550
  579
  609
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -191
  -202
  -212
  -223
  -235
  -247
  -260
  -273
  -287
  -302
  -317
  -334
  -350
  -368
New CAPEX, $m
  -255
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -159
  -167
  -174
  -182
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -218
  -229
  -239
  -251
  -263
  -276
  -289
  -303
  -318
  -333
  -349
  -366
  -384
  -403
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -186
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -218
  -229
  -240
  -252
  -264
  -278
  -291
  -307
  -321
  -337
  -354
  -372
  -391
  -409
  -431
  -451
  -474
  -498
  -523
  -549
  -576
  -605
  -635
  -666
  -700
  -734
  -771
Free cash flow, $m
  -47
  12
  -67
  -68
  -70
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -85
  -88
  -90
  -93
  -96
  -100
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -163
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  73
  73
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  133
  140
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  184
  193
  203
  212
  223
  234
  245
  257
  270
  283
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  60
  0
  30
  30
  30
  30
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  30
  30
  30
  30
  31
  31
  31
  31
  32
  32
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  129
  73
  110
  113
  117
  120
  123
  127
  132
  136
  141
  146
  151
  157
  162
  169
  175
  182
  189
  197
  205
  214
  223
  233
  242
  254
  265
  276
  288
  302
  315
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  81
  85
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  70
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  101
  107
  113
  120
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -83
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  45
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  10.00
  10.50
  11.03
  11.58
  12.16
  12.76
  13.40
  14.07
  14.77
  15.51
  16.29
  17.10
  17.96
  18.86
  19.80
  20.79
  21.83
  22.92
  24.07
  25.27
  26.53
  27.86
  29.25
  30.72
  32.25
  33.86
  35.56
  37.33
  39.20
  41.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  41
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  99.0
  98.0
  97.1
  96.3
  95.6
  94.9
  94.2
  93.6
  93.0
  92.4
  91.9
  91.4
  91.0
  90.6
  90.1
  89.8
  89.4
  89.0
  88.7
  88.4
  88.1
  87.8
  87.5
  87.2
  87.0
  86.7
  86.5
  86.3
  86.1

EastGroup Properties, Inc., a real estate investment trust (REIT), focuses on the development, acquisition, and operation of industrial properties in the United States. As of December 31, 2007, it owned 202 industrial properties and 1 office building, as well as approximately 1.7 million square feet properties in Florida, Texas, Arizona, and California. The company has elected to be taxed as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income tax purposes, provided it distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its shareholders. EastGroup Properties, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Jackson, Mississippi.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  EastGroup Properties (EGP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.2
Price to Sales 10.7
Price to Book 4.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -23.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 68.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 172.7%
Total Debt to Equity 174.9%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Return On Total Capital 5.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Equity 16.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 70.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 71.2%
EBITDA Margin 82.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 72.3%
Operating Margin 34.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 37.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.7%
Net Profit Margin 37.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 84.4%

EGP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EGP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $253 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by EastGroup Properties. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of EastGroup Properties. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EGP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10%, whose default value for EGP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of EastGroup Properties, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of EastGroup Properties.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EGP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 55.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $26 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EGP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for EastGroup Properties.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for EastGroup Properties. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EGP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EGP are equal to 667%.

Life of production assets of 21.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in EastGroup Properties operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EGP is equal to 5.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $638 million for EastGroup Properties - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.775 million for EastGroup Properties is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of EastGroup Properties at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.7 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ EastGroup Properties reports 1Q results   [Apr-20-17 04:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ EastGroup Properties Announces CFO Transition   [Mar-03-17 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is Visteon Corp (VC) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-13-16 01:42PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Eastgroup Properties Inc (EGP) Hedge Funds Are Snapping Up   [Dec-10-16 01:17PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] REIT Earnings to Diverge Along Sectors   [Oct-26-16 12:09AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] REIT Earnings to Diverge Along Sectors   [Oct-25-16 03:12PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ EastGroup Named Top Industrial REIT Pick   [Sep-28-16 10:04AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ EastGroup Properties Announces Dividend Increase   [Sep-01-16 12:32PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Genco cutting more than 50 jobs in Charlotte   [Jul-14-16 07:10AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ 2 Stocks Set to Suffer From an End of June Fed Rate Hike   [Jun-03-16 09:40AM  at 24/7 Wall St.]
▶ SunTrust Lowers Some REIT Price Targets; Neutral on EQR   [Feb-08-16 01:30PM  at Barrons.com]
Stock chart of EGP Financial statements of EGP Annual reports of EGP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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