Intrinsic value of Vaalco Energy - EGY

Previous Close

$0.79

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$0.79

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of EGY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -25.00
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.01
Revenue, $m
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  121
  128
  134
  141
  148
  155
  163
  171
  180
  189
  199
  209
  219
  230
  242
  254
  267
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
  197
  207
  218
  229
  241
  253
  266
  279
  293
  308
  324
  340
  357
  375
  394
  414
  435
  457
  480
  504
  529
  556
  584
  613
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  64
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
  197
  207
  218
  229
  241
  253
  266
  279
  293
  308
  324
  340
  357
  375
  394
  414
  435
  457
  480
  504
  529
  556
  584
  613
Operating income, $m
  -4
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -212
  -223
  -234
  -246
  -258
  -271
  -285
  -299
  -314
  -330
  -346
EBITDA, $m
  3
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -160
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -238
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -289
  -304
  -319
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
Earnings before tax, $m
  -9
  -83
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -229
  -240
  -253
  -266
  -279
  -293
  -308
  -324
  -341
  -358
Tax expense, $m
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -27
  -83
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -229
  -240
  -253
  -266
  -279
  -293
  -308
  -324
  -341
  -358

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  20
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  81
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  112
  117
  123
  130
  136
  143
  150
  158
  166
  174
  183
  192
  202
  212
  223
  234
  246
  258
  271
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  112
  117
  123
  130
  136
  143
  150
  158
  166
  174
  183
  192
  202
  212
  223
  234
  246
  258
  271
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.984
  0.984
  0.985
  0.986
  0.987
  0.975
  0.976
  0.989
  0.978
  0.990
  0.990
  0.991
  0.982
  0.991
  0.984
  0.985
  0.985
  0.986
  0.987
  0.981
  0.982
  0.983
  0.984
  0.984
  0.985
  0.986
  0.982
  0.983
  0.984
  0.984
  0.985
Average production assets, $m
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  131
  138
Working capital, $m
  -18
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
Total debt, $m
  14
  -9
  -6
  -3
  0
  4
  8
  11
  15
  20
  24
  29
  34
  39
  44
  50
  56
  62
  68
  75
  82
  90
  98
  106
  115
  124
  133
  143
  154
  165
  177
Total liabilities, $m
  81
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  75
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  173
  182
  191
  200
  210
  221
  232
  244
Total equity, $m
  0
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  81
  64
  68
  71
  74
  79
  83
  87
  91
  97
  101
  107
  112
  118
  123
  130
  137
  143
  150
  158
  166
  174
  183
  192
  202
  212
  222
  233
  246
  258
  271
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -1.430
  -0.910
  -0.420
  0.050
  0.490
  0.910
  1.310
  1.680
  2.040
  2.380
  2.700
  3.010
  3.300
  3.570
  3.830
  4.080
  4.320
  4.540
  4.760
  4.960
  5.150
  5.340
  5.510
  5.680
  5.840
  5.990
  6.130
  6.270
  6.400
  6.530
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.328
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -27
  -83
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -229
  -240
  -253
  -266
  -279
  -293
  -308
  -324
  -341
  -358
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
Funds from operations, $m
  -12
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -191
  -201
  -211
  -222
  -233
  -245
  -258
  -271
  -285
  -299
  -314
  -330
Change in working capital, $m
  -9
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
Cash from operations, $m
  -3
  -74
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -229
  -240
  -253
  -265
  -279
  -293
  -308
  -324
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
New CAPEX, $m
  -9
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
Free cash flow, $m
  -4
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -206
  -217
  -228
  -240
  -252
  -265
  -278
  -292
  -307
  -323
  -339
  -357
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -15
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  101
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  112
  118
  125
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  170
  178
  188
  197
  208
  218
  229
  241
  254
  267
  280
  294
  309
  325
  342
  359
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  86
  89
  94
  99
  105
  111
  116
  122
  129
  135
  143
  150
  158
  166
  176
  184
  194
  204
  215
  225
  237
  249
  262
  276
  289
  304
  319
  336
  353
  371
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -5
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  26
  -101
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -178
  -188
  -197
  -208
  -218
  -229
  -241
  -254
  -267
  -280
  -294
  -309
  -325
  -342
  -359
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -86
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -199
  -210
  -220
  -232
  -244
  -256
  -269
  -283
  -297
  -312
  -328
  -345
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -82
  -76
  -76
  -76
  -75
  -74
  -73
  -71
  -69
  -66
  -63
  -60
  -56
  -52
  -48
  -44
  -39
  -35
  -31
  -27
  -23
  -19
  -16
  -13
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  3.5
  0.2
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

VAALCO Energy, Inc. is an independent energy company. The Company is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas. Its segments include Gabon, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, the United States, and Corporate and other, which includes corporate and operations support. It owns producing properties and conducts exploration activities as an operator in Gabon, West Africa; conducts exploration activities as an operator in Angola, West Africa, and participates in exploration and development activities as a non-operator in Equatorial Guinea, West Africa. In the United States, it operates unconventional resource properties in North Texas and hold undeveloped leasehold acreage in Montana. It also owns minor interests in conventional production activities as a non-operator in the United States. Its Etame Marin block is located offshore the Republic of Gabon. It owns over 640-acre lease in the Hefley field (Granite Wash formation) in North Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Vaalco Energy (EGY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.7
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -15.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -25%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -86.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -33.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage -8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -24.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -45.7%
Return On Total Capital -98.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -89.3%
Return On Equity -207.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -132.8%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 36.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.9%
EBITDA Margin -1.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -38.6%
Operating Margin -6.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -58.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -15%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -62.4%
Net Profit Margin -45%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -101.6%
Effective Tax Rate -100%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -53.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

EGY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EGY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $60 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Vaalco Energy. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Vaalco Energy. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EGY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EGY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Vaalco Energy, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Vaalco Energy.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EGY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 230%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EGY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.9% for Vaalco Energy.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Vaalco Energy. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EGY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EGY are equal to 51.7%.

Life of production assets of 4.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Vaalco Energy operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EGY is equal to -50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for Vaalco Energy - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 58.823 million for Vaalco Energy is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Vaalco Energy at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ VAALCO Energy Provides Operational Update   [Nov-28-17 04:50PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Vaalco Energy reports 3Q loss   [Nov-08-17 04:37PM  Associated Press]
▶ Vaalco Energy posts 2Q profit   [Aug-10-17 01:08AM  Associated Press]
▶ VAALCO Energy, Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-08-17 09:55PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ VAALCO Provides Operational Update   [Jul-20-17 04:45PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to VAALCO Energy, Inc. : May 29, 2017   [May-29-17 12:45PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to VAALCO Energy, Inc. : May 18, 2017   [May-18-17 01:41PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Vaalco Energy posts 1Q profit   [May-08-17 06:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ Houston energy company names new CFO   [Apr-18-17 03:10PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Houston energy company receives another delisting warning from NYSE   [Apr-10-17 06:10PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Webcast-OGIS New York for VAALCO Energy, Inc.   [Mar-08-17 05:56PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ VAALCO Energy Announces Year-End 2016 Reserves   [Feb-21-17 04:45PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Houston energy co. names permanent CEO   [Jan-04-17 09:40AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ VAALCO Energy Provides Update on Operations   [Sep-15-16 06:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of EGY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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