Intrinsic value of Endologix - ELGX

Previous Close

$5.26

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$5.26

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ELGX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  25.32
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  193
  197
  201
  207
  212
  219
  226
  234
  242
  251
  260
  271
  282
  293
  306
  319
  333
  348
  364
  380
  398
  416
  435
  456
  478
  500
  524
  549
  576
  604
  633
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  264
  270
  276
  284
  292
  301
  311
  322
  333
  345
  346
  360
  375
  391
  408
  426
  445
  465
  486
  509
  532
  557
  583
  611
  640
  671
  703
  737
  772
  810
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  286
  264
  270
  276
  284
  292
  301
  311
  322
  333
  345
  346
  360
  375
  391
  408
  426
  445
  465
  486
  509
  532
  557
  583
  611
  640
  671
  703
  737
  772
  810
Operating income, $m
  -93
  -67
  -68
  -70
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -80
  -82
  -85
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -177
EBITDA, $m
  -84
  -50
  -51
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -154
  -161
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
Earnings before tax, $m
  -154
  -73
  -75
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -94
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -201
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -155
  -73
  -75
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -94
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -201

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  47
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  360
  319
  326
  335
  344
  355
  366
  379
  392
  407
  422
  439
  457
  476
  496
  517
  540
  564
  589
  616
  644
  674
  706
  739
  774
  811
  850
  890
  933
  979
  1,026
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  313
  319
  326
  335
  344
  355
  366
  379
  392
  407
  422
  439
  457
  476
  496
  517
  540
  564
  589
  616
  644
  674
  706
  739
  774
  811
  850
  890
  933
  979
  1,026
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.617
  0.618
  0.617
  0.618
  0.616
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.616
  0.617
  0.617
  0.616
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.618
  0.617
  0.618
  0.617
  0.616
  0.617
  0.618
  0.617
  0.616
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
Average production assets, $m
  87
  89
  91
  93
  96
  99
  102
  105
  109
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  144
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
  188
  196
  206
  215
  226
  236
  248
  260
  272
  286
Working capital, $m
  85
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
Total debt, $m
  177
  182
  188
  194
  202
  210
  219
  229
  239
  251
  263
  276
  290
  305
  321
  338
  356
  375
  395
  416
  438
  462
  487
  513
  541
  570
  600
  633
  666
  702
  740
Total liabilities, $m
  247
  252
  258
  264
  272
  280
  289
  299
  309
  321
  333
  346
  360
  375
  391
  408
  426
  445
  465
  486
  508
  532
  557
  583
  611
  640
  670
  703
  736
  772
  810
Total equity, $m
  113
  67
  69
  71
  73
  75
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  217
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  360
  319
  327
  335
  345
  355
  366
  379
  392
  407
  422
  439
  456
  475
  496
  517
  540
  564
  589
  616
  644
  674
  706
  739
  774
  811
  849
  891
  933
  978
  1,027
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.566
  2.700
  2.720
  2.750
  2.780
  2.800
  2.830
  2.860
  2.890
  2.920
  2.950
  2.980
  3.010
  3.040
  3.070
  3.100
  3.120
  3.150
  3.180
  3.200
  3.220
  3.250
  3.270
  3.290
  3.310
  3.330
  3.350
  3.370
  3.380
  3.400
  3.420
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -155
  -73
  -75
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -94
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -201
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  9
  17
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  19
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
Funds from operations, $m
  -70
  -56
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -186
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
Cash from operations, $m
  -75
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -191
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -29
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
Free cash flow, $m
  -104
  -64
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -220
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  6
  75
  76
  78
  80
  82
  85
  88
  91
  94
  97
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  159
  166
  175
  183
  192
  201
  211
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  5
  80
  82
  85
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  105
  109
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  162
  169
  177
  187
  195
  206
  215
  226
  237
  249
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -98
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -10
  -75
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -94
  -97
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -166
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -211
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  47
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -12
  -60
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
Discount rate, %
 
  9.30
  9.77
  10.25
  10.77
  11.30
  11.87
  12.46
  13.09
  13.74
  14.43
  15.15
  15.91
  16.70
  17.54
  18.41
  19.33
  20.30
  21.32
  22.38
  23.50
  24.68
  25.91
  27.20
  28.57
  29.99
  31.49
  33.07
  34.72
  36.46
  38.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -11
  -50
  -45
  -41
  -37
  -34
  -30
  -26
  -23
  -20
  -17
  -14
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  77.5
  60.0
  46.4
  35.9
  27.8
  21.5
  16.6
  12.9
  10.0
  7.7
  6.2
  4.9
  3.9
  3.1
  2.5
  2.0
  1.6
  1.2
  1.0
  0.8
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1

Endologix, Inc. is engaged in developing, manufacturing, marketing and selling medical devices for the treatment of aortic disorders. The Company's products are intended for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). The AAA products are built on one of two platforms, including traditional minimally invasive endovascular repair (EVAR) or endovascular sealing (EVAS), its solution for sealing the aneurysm sac while maintaining blood flow through two blood flow lumens. The EVAR products include the Endologix AFX Endovascular AAA System (AFX), the VELA Proximal Endograft (VELA) and the Endologix Powerlink with Intuitrak Delivery System (Intuitrak). The EVAS product is the Nellix EndoVascular Aneurysm Sealing System (Nellix EVAS System). It offers accessories to facilitate the optimal delivery of its EVAR products, including compatible guidewires, snares, and catheter introducer sheaths.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Endologix (ELGX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.8
Price to Sales 2.3
Price to Book 3.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -5.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -5.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 25.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -25%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 156.6%
Total Debt to Equity 156.6%
Interest Coverage -25
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -43.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.9%
Return On Total Capital -55.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.4%
Return On Equity -143.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -71.8%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 64.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.4%
EBITDA Margin -72%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -41.3%
Operating Margin -48.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -79.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -46.8%
Net Profit Margin -80.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -44.8%
Effective Tax Rate -0.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

ELGX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ELGX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $193 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Endologix. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Endologix. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ELGX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.3%, whose default value for ELGX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Endologix, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Endologix.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ELGX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 134.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ELGX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Endologix.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Endologix. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ELGX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ELGX are equal to 45.1%.

Life of production assets of 18 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Endologix operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ELGX is equal to 19.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $113 million for Endologix - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 83.435 million for Endologix is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Endologix at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Endologix reports 3Q loss   [Nov-07-17 04:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ Endologix, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [10:10AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Is Endologix Inc (ELGX) A Financially Sound Company?   [Oct-30-17 04:51PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Endologix, Inc. : October 27, 2017   [Oct-27-17 10:52AM  Capital Cube]
▶ What Does Endologix Incs (ELGX) Share Price Indicate?   [Oct-16-17 03:37PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Endologix, Inc. : October 3, 2017   [Oct-03-17 11:11AM  Capital Cube]
▶ What Are The Drivers Of Endologix Incs (ELGX) Risks?   [Sep-30-17 04:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Is There Now An Opportunity In Endologix Inc (ELGX)?   [Sep-13-17 08:31PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Endologix reports 2Q loss   [Aug-02-17 10:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Endologix, Inc. : May 26, 2017   [May-26-17 01:06PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why Endologix Shares Are Hitting a Multiyear Low   [May-18-17 12:30PM  24/7 Wall St.]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Endologix, Inc. : May 11, 2017   [May-11-17 04:35PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Endologix reports 1Q loss   [May-04-17 05:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Deerfield Management Invests Up to $170 Million in Endologix   [Apr-05-17 11:47AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Endologix Poised for a Potentially Volatile Breakout   [Mar-28-17 09:41AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ 5 Stocks Trending Close to Major Breakouts   [Mar-17-17 01:49PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Columbia Wanger Buys LCI Industries, Nasdaq   [Mar-09-17 02:28PM  GuruFocus.com]
Financial statements of ELGX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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