Intrinsic value of Ellomay Capital - ELLO

Previous Close

$8.50

  Intrinsic Value

$2.04

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-76%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$8.50

 
Intrinsic value

$2.04

 
Up/down potential

-76%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ELLO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -7.14
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  10
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
Operating income, $m
  3
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
EBITDA, $m
  8
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
Earnings before tax, $m
  0
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
Tax expense, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Net income, $m
  -1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  25
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  156
  134
  137
  141
  144
  149
  154
  159
  165
  171
  177
  184
  192
  200
  208
  217
  227
  237
  247
  259
  270
  283
  296
  310
  325
  340
  357
  374
  392
  411
  431
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  131
  134
  137
  141
  144
  149
  154
  159
  165
  171
  177
  184
  192
  200
  208
  217
  227
  237
  247
  259
  270
  283
  296
  310
  325
  340
  357
  374
  392
  411
  431
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.099
  0.097
  0.102
  0.099
  0.097
  0.101
  0.097
  0.101
  0.097
  0.099
  0.102
  0.098
  0.099
  0.100
  0.101
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.100
  0.100
  0.099
  0.098
  0.100
  0.098
  0.100
  0.098
  0.099
  0.099
  0.100
  0.100
Average production assets, $m
  78
  80
  81
  83
  86
  88
  91
  94
  98
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
Working capital, $m
  24
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
Total debt, $m
  59
  54
  56
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  181
  190
Total liabilities, $m
  67
  61
  63
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
Total equity, $m
  90
  73
  74
  76
  78
  81
  83
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  147
  153
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  203
  212
  223
  233
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  157
  134
  137
  140
  144
  149
  153
  159
  164
  171
  177
  184
  192
  199
  208
  217
  227
  236
  247
  258
  271
  283
  297
  310
  325
  340
  356
  374
  391
  411
  430
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.656
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.790
  0.790
  0.790
  0.790
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.820
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.496
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542
  0.542

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
Funds from operations, $m
  5
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Cash from operations, $m
  8
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
Cash from investing activities, $m
  1
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -19
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
Free cash flow, $m
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  11
  13
  13
  14
  15
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  7
  2
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  4
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  19
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
Discount rate, %
 
  5.40
  5.67
  5.95
  6.25
  6.56
  6.89
  7.24
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.04
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.16
  21.17
  22.23
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  18
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.6
  99.1
  98.3
  97.5
  96.5
  95.3
  94.1
  92.8
  91.3
  89.9
  88.4
  86.8
  85.2
  83.6
  81.9
  80.3
  78.6
  77.0
  75.3
  73.7
  72.1
  70.5
  68.9
  67.3
  65.7
  64.2
  62.7

Ellomay Capital Ltd. produces renewable and clean energy in Italy and Spain. It owns 12 photovoltaic plants in Italy with an aggregate installed capacity of approximately 22.6 megawatt peak (MWp); and 4 photovoltaic plants in Spain with an aggregate installed capacity of approximately 7.9 MWp. The company was formerly known as NUR Macroprinters Ltd. and changed its name to Ellomay Capital Ltd. in April 2008. Ellomay Capital Ltd. was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv, Israel.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ellomay Capital (ELLO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -90.8
Price to Sales 7
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 30.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -11.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 58.9%
Total Debt to Equity 65.6%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Return On Total Capital -0.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Return On Equity -1.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 46.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.3%
EBITDA Margin 61.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 84.8%
Operating Margin 23.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.5%
Net Profit Margin -7.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.3%
Payout Ratio -200%

ELLO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ELLO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $13 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ellomay Capital. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ellomay Capital. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ELLO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.4%, whose default value for ELLO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ellomay Capital, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ellomay Capital.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ELLO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 61.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ELLO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.1% for Ellomay Capital.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ellomay Capital. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ELLO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ELLO are equal to 600%.

Life of production assets of 15.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ellomay Capital operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ELLO is equal to 38.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $90 million for Ellomay Capital - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 11.016 million for Ellomay Capital is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ellomay Capital at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Ellomay reports 1Q loss   [Jun-21-17 08:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ellomay posts 4Q profit   [06:36AM  Associated Press]
Stock chart of ELLO Financial statements of ELLO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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