Intrinsic value of Callaway Golf - ELY

Previous Close

$18.83

  Intrinsic Value

$26.85

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+43%

Previous close

$18.83

 
Intrinsic value

$26.85

 
Up/down potential

+43%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ELY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.20
  20.40
  18.86
  17.47
  16.23
  15.10
  14.09
  13.18
  12.37
  11.63
  10.97
  10.37
  9.83
  9.35
  8.91
  8.52
  8.17
  7.85
  7.57
  7.31
  7.08
  6.87
  6.69
  6.52
  6.36
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
Revenue, $m
  871
  1,263
  1,501
  1,764
  2,050
  2,359
  2,692
  3,047
  3,423
  3,822
  4,241
  4,680
  5,141
  5,621
  6,122
  6,644
  7,187
  7,751
  8,338
  8,948
  9,581
  10,240
  10,924
  11,636
  12,377
  13,147
  13,950
  14,786
  15,658
  16,567
  17,516
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,011
  1,196
  1,400
  1,623
  1,864
  2,123
  2,399
  2,692
  3,002
  3,328
  3,642
  4,000
  4,374
  4,764
  5,170
  5,592
  6,031
  6,488
  6,962
  7,455
  7,968
  8,500
  9,054
  9,630
  10,230
  10,855
  11,506
  12,184
  12,891
  13,629
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  132
  135
  138
  141
  144
  147
  150
  154
  157
  160
  164
  167
  171
  175
  179
  183
  187
  191
  195
  199
  204
  208
  213
  217
  222
  227
  232
  237
  242
  248
Total operating expenses, $m
  827
  1,143
  1,331
  1,538
  1,764
  2,008
  2,270
  2,549
  2,846
  3,159
  3,488
  3,806
  4,167
  4,545
  4,939
  5,349
  5,775
  6,218
  6,679
  7,157
  7,654
  8,172
  8,708
  9,267
  9,847
  10,452
  11,082
  11,738
  12,421
  13,133
  13,877
Operating income, $m
  44
  120
  170
  225
  286
  351
  422
  498
  578
  663
  752
  875
  973
  1,076
  1,183
  1,295
  1,412
  1,533
  1,659
  1,790
  1,927
  2,068
  2,216
  2,369
  2,529
  2,695
  2,868
  3,049
  3,237
  3,434
  3,639
EBITDA, $m
  61
  180
  236
  297
  365
  438
  517
  601
  691
  786
  886
  991
  1,101
  1,215
  1,335
  1,460
  1,590
  1,725
  1,866
  2,012
  2,164
  2,322
  2,487
  2,658
  2,836
  3,021
  3,214
  3,415
  3,625
  3,844
  4,073
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  8
  13
  19
  25
  32
  40
  48
  57
  66
  76
  87
  97
  109
  121
  133
  146
  159
  173
  188
  203
  218
  235
  252
  269
  288
  307
  326
  347
  369
  391
Earnings before tax, $m
  58
  112
  157
  206
  260
  319
  382
  449
  521
  596
  676
  788
  876
  967
  1,063
  1,162
  1,266
  1,374
  1,486
  1,602
  1,724
  1,850
  1,981
  2,117
  2,259
  2,407
  2,562
  2,722
  2,890
  3,065
  3,248
Tax expense, $m
  -133
  30
  42
  56
  70
  86
  103
  121
  141
  161
  183
  213
  236
  261
  287
  314
  342
  371
  401
  433
  465
  499
  535
  572
  610
  650
  692
  735
  780
  828
  877
Net income, $m
  190
  82
  115
  151
  190
  233
  279
  328
  380
  435
  494
  575
  639
  706
  776
  849
  924
  1,003
  1,085
  1,170
  1,258
  1,350
  1,446
  1,546
  1,649
  1,757
  1,870
  1,987
  2,110
  2,237
  2,371

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  127
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  801
  1,194
  1,419
  1,667
  1,937
  2,230
  2,544
  2,880
  3,236
  3,612
  4,008
  4,424
  4,859
  5,313
  5,787
  6,280
  6,793
  7,326
  7,881
  8,457
  9,056
  9,678
  10,325
  10,998
  11,698
  12,427
  13,185
  13,976
  14,800
  15,659
  16,556
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  674
  1,194
  1,419
  1,667
  1,937
  2,230
  2,544
  2,880
  3,236
  3,612
  4,008
  4,424
  4,859
  5,313
  5,787
  6,280
  6,793
  7,326
  7,881
  8,457
  9,056
  9,678
  10,325
  10,998
  11,698
  12,427
  13,185
  13,976
  14,800
  15,659
  16,556
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.292
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
Average production assets, $m
  144
  313
  372
  437
  508
  585
  668
  756
  849
  948
  1,052
  1,161
  1,275
  1,394
  1,518
  1,648
  1,782
  1,922
  2,068
  2,219
  2,376
  2,539
  2,709
  2,886
  3,069
  3,261
  3,460
  3,667
  3,883
  4,109
  4,344
Working capital, $m
  273
  104
  123
  145
  168
  193
  221
  250
  281
  313
  348
  384
  422
  461
  502
  545
  589
  636
  684
  734
  786
  840
  896
  954
  1,015
  1,078
  1,144
  1,212
  1,284
  1,359
  1,436
Total debt, $m
  12
  167
  243
  326
  416
  514
  620
  732
  851
  977
  1,110
  1,249
  1,395
  1,547
  1,706
  1,871
  2,043
  2,222
  2,407
  2,601
  2,801
  3,010
  3,226
  3,452
  3,686
  3,930
  4,185
  4,449
  4,725
  5,013
  5,314
Total liabilities, $m
  202
  400
  475
  558
  649
  747
  852
  965
  1,084
  1,210
  1,343
  1,482
  1,628
  1,780
  1,939
  2,104
  2,276
  2,454
  2,640
  2,833
  3,034
  3,242
  3,459
  3,684
  3,919
  4,163
  4,417
  4,682
  4,958
  5,246
  5,546
Total equity, $m
  599
  794
  944
  1,108
  1,288
  1,483
  1,692
  1,915
  2,152
  2,402
  2,665
  2,942
  3,231
  3,533
  3,848
  4,176
  4,517
  4,872
  5,241
  5,624
  6,022
  6,436
  6,866
  7,314
  7,779
  8,264
  8,768
  9,294
  9,842
  10,413
  11,009
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  801
  1,194
  1,419
  1,666
  1,937
  2,230
  2,544
  2,880
  3,236
  3,612
  4,008
  4,424
  4,859
  5,313
  5,787
  6,280
  6,793
  7,326
  7,881
  8,457
  9,056
  9,678
  10,325
  10,998
  11,698
  12,427
  13,185
  13,976
  14,800
  15,659
  16,555
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.020
  0.210
  0.260
  0.290
  0.320
  0.350
  0.370
  0.380
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.718
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  190
  82
  115
  151
  190
  233
  279
  328
  380
  435
  494
  575
  639
  706
  776
  849
  924
  1,003
  1,085
  1,170
  1,258
  1,350
  1,446
  1,546
  1,649
  1,757
  1,870
  1,987
  2,110
  2,237
  2,371
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  17
  60
  65
  72
  79
  87
  95
  104
  113
  123
  133
  116
  127
  139
  152
  165
  178
  192
  207
  222
  238
  254
  271
  289
  307
  326
  346
  367
  388
  411
  434
Funds from operations, $m
  99
  142
  180
  223
  269
  320
  374
  432
  493
  558
  627
  691
  767
  845
  928
  1,013
  1,102
  1,195
  1,291
  1,392
  1,496
  1,604
  1,717
  1,834
  1,956
  2,083
  2,216
  2,354
  2,498
  2,648
  2,805
Change in working capital, $m
  21
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  71
  75
  78
Cash from operations, $m
  78
  124
  161
  201
  246
  294
  347
  403
  462
  526
  593
  655
  729
  806
  887
  970
  1,058
  1,149
  1,243
  1,342
  1,444
  1,550
  1,661
  1,776
  1,896
  2,020
  2,150
  2,285
  2,427
  2,574
  2,727
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -26
  -31
  -37
  -44
  -51
  -59
  -67
  -76
  -85
  -95
  -105
  -116
  -127
  -139
  -152
  -165
  -178
  -192
  -207
  -222
  -238
  -254
  -271
  -289
  -307
  -326
  -346
  -367
  -388
  -411
New CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -53
  -59
  -65
  -71
  -77
  -82
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -140
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -177
  -184
  -191
  -199
  -207
  -216
  -225
  -235
Cash from investing activities, $m
  9
  -79
  -90
  -102
  -115
  -128
  -141
  -155
  -169
  -184
  -199
  -214
  -230
  -246
  -263
  -281
  -300
  -318
  -337
  -358
  -379
  -401
  -424
  -448
  -473
  -498
  -525
  -553
  -583
  -613
  -646
Free cash flow, $m
  87
  45
  70
  99
  131
  167
  206
  248
  293
  342
  394
  441
  499
  559
  623
  689
  758
  831
  906
  984
  1,065
  1,149
  1,237
  1,328
  1,423
  1,522
  1,625
  1,732
  1,844
  1,960
  2,081
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -3
  68
  75
  83
  91
  98
  105
  112
  119
  126
  133
  139
  146
  152
  159
  165
  172
  179
  186
  193
  201
  208
  217
  225
  235
  244
  254
  265
  276
  288
  300
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -3
  53
  35
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -5
  121
  110
  97
  91
  98
  105
  112
  119
  126
  133
  139
  146
  152
  159
  165
  172
  179
  186
  193
  201
  208
  217
  225
  235
  244
  254
  265
  276
  288
  300
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  80
  166
  181
  196
  222
  265
  311
  360
  413
  468
  527
  580
  644
  712
  782
  854
  930
  1,009
  1,091
  1,177
  1,266
  1,358
  1,454
  1,554
  1,658
  1,766
  1,879
  1,997
  2,120
  2,248
  2,382
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -186
  -135
  -150
  -165
  -180
  -195
  -209
  -223
  -237
  -250
  -263
  -276
  -289
  -302
  -315
  -328
  -341
  -355
  -369
  -383
  -398
  -414
  -430
  -447
  -466
  -485
  -505
  -526
  -548
  -571
  -596
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  13
  15
  18
  21
  25
  28
  32
  37
  41
  46
  51
  56
  62
  67
  73
  80
  86
  93
  100
  107
  115
  123
  131
  140
  149
  158
  167
  177
  188
  199
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  31
  31
  31
  42
  70
  102
  137
  176
  218
  263
  304
  355
  409
  467
  526
  589
  655
  723
  794
  867
  944
  1,024
  1,106
  1,192
  1,282
  1,375
  1,471
  1,572
  1,676
  1,785
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  30
  28
  27
  34
  54
  74
  93
  110
  125
  138
  144
  152
  156
  157
  155
  150
  142
  133
  122
  110
  98
  85
  73
  61
  50
  40
  32
  24
  18
  13
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  97.1
  95.5
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0

Callaway Golf Company designs, manufactures and sells golf clubs, golf balls, golf bags and other golf-related accessories. The Company has two segments: the golf clubs segment and golf balls segment. The golf clubs segment consists of its woods, hybrids, irons and wedges, and Odyssey putters. This segment also includes other golf-related accessories, royalties from licensing of its trademarks and service marks and sales of pre-owned golf clubs. The golf balls segment consists of Callaway Golf and Strata balls that are designed, manufactured and sold by the Company. It sells its products to retailers, directly and through its subsidiaries, and to third-party distributors. It sells pre-owned golf products through its Website, www.callawaygolfpreowned.com. In addition, it sells Callaway Golf and Odyssey products, including Toulon Design by Odyssey, directly to consumers through its Websites, www.callawaygolf.com and www.odysseygolf.com.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Callaway Golf (ELY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 9.3
Price to Sales 2
Price to Book 3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 28.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 14.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 11
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 2%
Interest Coverage 30
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 27.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Return On Total Capital 36.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Return On Equity 37.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 44.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.3%
EBITDA Margin 8.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Operating Margin 5.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Net Profit Margin 21.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Effective Tax Rate -229.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -59%
Payout Ratio 2.1%

ELY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ELY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1049 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Callaway Golf. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Callaway Golf. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ELY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ELY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Callaway Golf, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Callaway Golf.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ELY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $129 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ELY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.8% for Callaway Golf.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Callaway Golf. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ELY stock is equal to 1.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ELY are equal to 24.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Callaway Golf operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ELY is equal to 8.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $659 million for Callaway Golf - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 94 million for Callaway Golf is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Callaway Golf at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.

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▶ Callaway reports 4Q loss   [Feb-07-18 05:33PM  Associated Press]
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▶ Callaway's hot new golf products   [Jan-24-18 01:22PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Callaway Golf Announces Rogue Irons & Hybrids   [Jan-18-18 10:01AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Xander Schauffele Joins Callaway Golf Tour Staff   [Jan-03-18 06:50PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Sergio Garcia Joins Callaway Golf Tour Staff   [Jan-02-18 12:02PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Hovnanian and Kindred climb while Callaway Golf slumps   [Dec-27-17 04:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Callaway Golf Shows Rising Price Performance With Jump To 83 RS Rating   [Dec-21-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
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Financial statements of ELY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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