Intrinsic value of Callaway Golf - ELY

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$11.82

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$11.82

 
Intrinsic value

$20.69

 
Up/down potential

+75%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ELY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.20
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
Revenue, $m
  871
  934
  999
  1,067
  1,137
  1,210
  1,287
  1,366
  1,449
  1,535
  1,625
  1,718
  1,816
  1,918
  2,025
  2,136
  2,253
  2,375
  2,502
  2,635
  2,775
  2,921
  3,074
  3,235
  3,403
  3,579
  3,763
  3,957
  4,160
  4,372
  4,596
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  346
  370
  395
  421
  448
  476
  505
  536
  567
  600
  632
  668
  706
  745
  786
  829
  874
  921
  970
  1,021
  1,075
  1,131
  1,190
  1,252
  1,317
  1,385
  1,456
  1,531
  1,609
  1,691
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  530
  543
  557
  571
  585
  600
  615
  630
  646
  662
  678
  695
  713
  731
  749
  767
  787
  806
  827
  847
  868
  890
  912
  935
  958
  982
  1,007
  1,032
  1,058
  1,084
Total operating expenses, $m
  827
  876
  913
  952
  992
  1,033
  1,076
  1,120
  1,166
  1,213
  1,262
  1,310
  1,363
  1,419
  1,476
  1,535
  1,596
  1,661
  1,727
  1,797
  1,868
  1,943
  2,021
  2,102
  2,187
  2,275
  2,367
  2,463
  2,563
  2,667
  2,775
Operating income, $m
  44
  58
  86
  115
  145
  177
  211
  246
  283
  322
  362
  408
  452
  500
  549
  601
  656
  714
  775
  839
  907
  978
  1,053
  1,132
  1,215
  1,303
  1,396
  1,494
  1,597
  1,705
  1,820
EBITDA, $m
  61
  76
  105
  135
  167
  200
  235
  271
  309
  350
  392
  436
  482
  531
  583
  637
  693
  753
  816
  882
  952
  1,026
  1,103
  1,185
  1,271
  1,362
  1,458
  1,559
  1,665
  1,777
  1,896
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  0
  2
  4
  6
  9
  11
  13
  16
  19
  21
  24
  27
  31
  34
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  62
  66
  71
  76
  82
  87
  93
  100
  106
  113
Earnings before tax, $m
  58
  58
  83
  111
  139
  169
  200
  233
  267
  303
  341
  383
  425
  469
  515
  564
  615
  669
  726
  786
  850
  916
  987
  1,061
  1,139
  1,221
  1,308
  1,400
  1,497
  1,599
  1,707
Tax expense, $m
  -133
  16
  23
  30
  38
  46
  54
  63
  72
  82
  92
  103
  115
  127
  139
  152
  166
  181
  196
  212
  229
  247
  266
  286
  307
  330
  353
  378
  404
  432
  461
Net income, $m
  190
  42
  61
  81
  101
  123
  146
  170
  195
  221
  249
  280
  310
  342
  376
  412
  449
  489
  530
  574
  620
  669
  720
  774
  831
  892
  955
  1,022
  1,093
  1,167
  1,246

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  127
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  801
  723
  773
  826
  880
  937
  996
  1,057
  1,121
  1,188
  1,257
  1,330
  1,406
  1,485
  1,567
  1,653
  1,744
  1,838
  1,936
  2,040
  2,148
  2,261
  2,379
  2,503
  2,634
  2,770
  2,913
  3,062
  3,220
  3,384
  3,557
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  674
  723
  773
  826
  880
  937
  996
  1,057
  1,121
  1,188
  1,257
  1,330
  1,406
  1,485
  1,567
  1,653
  1,744
  1,838
  1,936
  2,040
  2,148
  2,261
  2,379
  2,503
  2,634
  2,770
  2,913
  3,062
  3,220
  3,384
  3,557
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.292
  1.292
  1.292
  1.292
  1.292
  1.291
  1.292
  1.292
  1.293
  1.292
  1.293
  1.292
  1.292
  1.292
  1.292
  1.292
  1.292
  1.292
  1.292
  1.292
  1.292
  1.292
  1.292
  1.292
  1.292
  1.292
  1.292
  1.292
  1.292
  1.292
  1.292
Average production assets, $m
  144
  154
  165
  176
  188
  200
  212
  225
  239
  253
  268
  284
  300
  316
  334
  352
  372
  392
  413
  435
  458
  482
  507
  534
  561
  590
  621
  653
  686
  721
  758
Working capital, $m
  273
  169
  181
  193
  206
  219
  233
  247
  262
  278
  294
  311
  329
  347
  366
  387
  408
  430
  453
  477
  502
  529
  556
  585
  616
  648
  681
  716
  753
  791
  832
Total debt, $m
  12
  14
  28
  43
  58
  74
  91
  108
  126
  145
  165
  185
  206
  229
  252
  276
  302
  328
  356
  385
  416
  448
  481
  516
  553
  591
  631
  674
  718
  764
  813
Total liabilities, $m
  202
  204
  218
  233
  248
  264
  281
  298
  316
  335
  355
  375
  396
  419
  442
  466
  492
  518
  546
  575
  606
  638
  671
  706
  743
  781
  821
  864
  908
  954
  1,003
Total equity, $m
  599
  519
  555
  593
  632
  673
  715
  759
  805
  853
  903
  955
  1,009
  1,066
  1,125
  1,187
  1,252
  1,320
  1,390
  1,465
  1,542
  1,623
  1,708
  1,798
  1,891
  1,989
  2,091
  2,199
  2,312
  2,430
  2,554
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  801
  723
  773
  826
  880
  937
  996
  1,057
  1,121
  1,188
  1,258
  1,330
  1,405
  1,485
  1,567
  1,653
  1,744
  1,838
  1,936
  2,040
  2,148
  2,261
  2,379
  2,504
  2,634
  2,770
  2,912
  3,063
  3,220
  3,384
  3,557
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.020
  0.030
  0.050
  0.070
  0.090
  0.110
  0.130
  0.140
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.280
  0.290
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  190
  42
  61
  81
  101
  123
  146
  170
  195
  221
  249
  280
  310
  342
  376
  412
  449
  489
  530
  574
  620
  669
  720
  774
  831
  892
  955
  1,022
  1,093
  1,167
  1,246
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
Funds from operations, $m
  99
  60
  80
  101
  123
  146
  170
  195
  221
  249
  278
  308
  340
  374
  410
  447
  486
  528
  571
  617
  666
  717
  771
  828
  888
  951
  1,017
  1,087
  1,161
  1,239
  1,322
Change in working capital, $m
  21
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  40
Cash from operations, $m
  78
  48
  68
  89
  110
  133
  156
  181
  206
  234
  262
  291
  323
  356
  390
  427
  465
  506
  548
  593
  641
  691
  743
  799
  857
  919
  984
  1,052
  1,125
  1,201
  1,281
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
New CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
Cash from investing activities, $m
  9
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -104
  -109
Free cash flow, $m
  87
  23
  42
  61
  81
  102
  123
  146
  170
  195
  222
  249
  278
  309
  341
  375
  411
  448
  488
  530
  574
  621
  670
  721
  776
  834
  894
  958
  1,026
  1,097
  1,172
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -3
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -5
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  80
  37
  56
  76
  96
  118
  140
  164
  188
  214
  241
  269
  299
  331
  364
  399
  436
  475
  516
  559
  605
  653
  703
  756
  813
  872
  935
  1,001
  1,070
  1,144
  1,221
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -186
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  115
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  117
  20
  38
  57
  77
  98
  120
  142
  166
  192
  217
  245
  274
  305
  337
  371
  407
  445
  485
  527
  571
  618
  667
  719
  774
  832
  893
  957
  1,025
  1,097
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  112
  18
  33
  47
  60
  71
  81
  89
  96
  100
  103
  105
  104
  102
  99
  94
  89
  82
  75
  67
  59
  51
  44
  37
  30
  24
  19
  15
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Callaway Golf Company, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells golf clubs, golf balls, golf bags, and other golf-related accessories. It offers drivers, fairway woods, hybrids, irons, wedges, and putters. The company also designs and sells golf accessories, such as packaged sets, golf bags, golf gloves, golf footwear, golf apparel, travel gear, headwear, towels, umbrellas, eyewear, and other accessories under the Callaway Golf, Odyssey, and Strata brand names. In addition, it licenses its trademarks and service marks for use on golf related accessories, such as golf apparel and footwear, golf gloves, prescription eyewear, and practice aids. The company sells its products directly to golf retailers, sporting goods retailers, and mass merchants; and to third-party distributors in the United States, as well as in approximately 100 countries. It also sells pre-owned golf products through its Website, www.callawaygolfpreowned.com; and Callaway Golf and Odyssey products directly to consumers through its Websites www.callawaygolf.com and www.odysseygolf.com. The company was founded in 1982 and is based in Carlsbad, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Callaway Golf (ELY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 5.9
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 17.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 14.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 11
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 2%
Interest Coverage 30
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 27.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Return On Total Capital 36.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Return On Equity 37.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 44.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.3%
EBITDA Margin 8.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Operating Margin 5.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Net Profit Margin 21.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Effective Tax Rate -229.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -59%
Payout Ratio 2.1%

ELY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ELY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $871 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Callaway Golf. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Callaway Golf. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ELY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ELY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Callaway Golf, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Callaway Golf.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ELY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 37.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $517 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ELY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 14.8% for Callaway Golf.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Callaway Golf. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ELY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ELY are equal to 16.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Callaway Golf operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ELY is equal to 18.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $599 million for Callaway Golf - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 93.948 million for Callaway Golf is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Callaway Golf at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Callaway Golf Co. : April 21, 2017   [Apr-21-17 02:55PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Callaway Golf Has Created Its Most Epic Driver Yet   [Feb-25-17 10:00AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Callaway Golf Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Feb-06-17 07:46PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Callaway Golf Signs Global Golf Superstar Michelle Wie   [Jan-25-17 03:28PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Callaway Introduces Chrome Soft X   [Jan-17-17 09:05AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Callaway Golf Signs Rising Superstar Daniel Berger   [Jan-05-17 09:07AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is Callaway Golf Co (ELY) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-06-16 11:05AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] Growing Hispanic Market Favors Entravision   [Dec-03-16 12:01AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Englander's Millennium Management Ups Alcoa Stake 10x   [Nov-16-16 02:48PM  at Investopedia]
▶ Callaway Golf Declares Quarterly Dividend   [01:40PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Why Callaway Golf Co. Stock Was Surging Today   [11:56AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Rock Ishii Joins Callaway Golf Ball R&D   [10:35AM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of ELY Financial statements of ELY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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