Intrinsic value of EMCOR Group - EME

Previous Close

$69.92

  Intrinsic Value

$84.58

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+21%

Previous close

$69.92

 
Intrinsic value

$84.58

 
Up/down potential

+21%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of EME stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.40
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  7,552
  7,703
  7,880
  8,083
  8,310
  8,562
  8,838
  9,139
  9,465
  9,816
  10,193
  10,596
  11,026
  11,484
  11,971
  12,487
  13,034
  13,614
  14,226
  14,873
  15,557
  16,278
  17,038
  17,840
  18,684
  19,574
  20,510
  21,496
  22,534
  23,625
  24,773
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  7,370
  7,537
  7,728
  7,943
  8,181
  8,442
  8,726
  9,033
  9,365
  9,720
  10,003
  10,409
  10,841
  11,301
  11,788
  12,305
  12,851
  13,430
  14,041
  14,686
  15,367
  16,085
  16,841
  17,639
  18,478
  19,362
  20,293
  21,272
  22,302
  23,386
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  7,243
  7,370
  7,537
  7,728
  7,943
  8,181
  8,442
  8,726
  9,033
  9,365
  9,720
  10,003
  10,409
  10,841
  11,301
  11,788
  12,305
  12,851
  13,430
  14,041
  14,686
  15,367
  16,085
  16,841
  17,639
  18,478
  19,362
  20,293
  21,272
  22,302
  23,386
Operating income, $m
  308
  333
  343
  354
  367
  381
  397
  414
  432
  451
  473
  593
  617
  643
  670
  699
  730
  762
  796
  833
  871
  911
  954
  999
  1,046
  1,096
  1,148
  1,203
  1,261
  1,322
  1,387
EBITDA, $m
  388
  460
  470
  482
  496
  511
  527
  545
  565
  586
  608
  632
  658
  685
  714
  745
  778
  812
  849
  887
  928
  971
  1,016
  1,064
  1,115
  1,168
  1,224
  1,282
  1,344
  1,409
  1,478
Interest expense (income), $m
  11
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  35
  38
  42
  47
  51
  56
  61
  67
  73
  79
  85
  92
  100
  107
  115
  124
  133
  142
  152
  163
  174
  186
Earnings before tax, $m
  296
  319
  327
  337
  347
  359
  372
  386
  401
  417
  434
  551
  571
  592
  614
  638
  663
  689
  717
  747
  779
  812
  846
  883
  922
  963
  1,006
  1,051
  1,098
  1,149
  1,201
Tax expense, $m
  111
  86
  88
  91
  94
  97
  100
  104
  108
  113
  117
  149
  154
  160
  166
  172
  179
  186
  194
  202
  210
  219
  229
  238
  249
  260
  272
  284
  297
  310
  324
Net income, $m
  182
  233
  239
  246
  253
  262
  271
  282
  292
  304
  317
  402
  416
  432
  448
  465
  484
  503
  524
  545
  568
  592
  618
  645
  673
  703
  734
  767
  802
  838
  877

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  465
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,852
  3,454
  3,534
  3,625
  3,727
  3,839
  3,963
  4,098
  4,245
  4,402
  4,571
  4,752
  4,944
  5,150
  5,368
  5,600
  5,845
  6,105
  6,379
  6,670
  6,976
  7,299
  7,640
  8,000
  8,379
  8,778
  9,198
  9,640
  10,105
  10,594
  11,109
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,387
  3,454
  3,534
  3,625
  3,727
  3,839
  3,963
  4,098
  4,245
  4,402
  4,571
  4,752
  4,944
  5,150
  5,368
  5,600
  5,845
  6,105
  6,379
  6,670
  6,976
  7,299
  7,640
  8,000
  8,379
  8,778
  9,198
  9,640
  10,105
  10,594
  11,109
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
Average production assets, $m
  480
  493
  504
  517
  532
  548
  566
  585
  606
  628
  652
  678
  706
  735
  766
  799
  834
  871
  910
  952
  996
  1,042
  1,090
  1,142
  1,196
  1,253
  1,313
  1,376
  1,442
  1,512
  1,585
Working capital, $m
  657
  208
  213
  218
  224
  231
  239
  247
  256
  265
  275
  286
  298
  310
  323
  337
  352
  368
  384
  402
  420
  440
  460
  482
  504
  528
  554
  580
  608
  638
  669
Total debt, $m
  423
  453
  507
  569
  638
  715
  799
  891
  990
  1,097
  1,212
  1,334
  1,465
  1,605
  1,753
  1,910
  2,077
  2,253
  2,440
  2,637
  2,845
  3,064
  3,296
  3,540
  3,797
  4,068
  4,353
  4,653
  4,969
  5,301
  5,651
Total liabilities, $m
  2,315
  2,345
  2,399
  2,461
  2,530
  2,607
  2,691
  2,783
  2,882
  2,989
  3,104
  3,226
  3,357
  3,497
  3,645
  3,802
  3,969
  4,145
  4,332
  4,529
  4,737
  4,956
  5,188
  5,432
  5,689
  5,960
  6,245
  6,545
  6,861
  7,193
  7,543
Total equity, $m
  1,537
  1,109
  1,134
  1,163
  1,196
  1,232
  1,272
  1,316
  1,362
  1,413
  1,467
  1,525
  1,587
  1,653
  1,723
  1,797
  1,876
  1,960
  2,048
  2,141
  2,239
  2,343
  2,453
  2,568
  2,690
  2,818
  2,952
  3,094
  3,244
  3,401
  3,566
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,852
  3,454
  3,533
  3,624
  3,726
  3,839
  3,963
  4,099
  4,244
  4,402
  4,571
  4,751
  4,944
  5,150
  5,368
  5,599
  5,845
  6,105
  6,380
  6,670
  6,976
  7,299
  7,641
  8,000
  8,379
  8,778
  9,197
  9,639
  10,105
  10,594
  11,109
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.275
  0.410
  0.450
  0.490
  0.530
  0.580
  0.630
  0.680
  0.730
  0.780
  0.830
  0.870
  0.920
  0.970
  1.020
  1.060
  1.110
  1.150
  1.190
  1.230
  1.270
  1.310
  1.340
  1.380
  1.410
  1.440
  1.470
  1.500
  1.530
  1.560
  1.580
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.317
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  182
  233
  239
  246
  253
  262
  271
  282
  292
  304
  317
  402
  416
  432
  448
  465
  484
  503
  524
  545
  568
  592
  618
  645
  673
  703
  734
  767
  802
  838
  877
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  80
  126
  127
  128
  129
  129
  131
  132
  133
  134
  135
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
Funds from operations, $m
  261
  359
  366
  374
  382
  392
  402
  413
  425
  438
  452
  441
  457
  474
  492
  511
  532
  553
  576
  600
  626
  652
  681
  710
  742
  775
  810
  846
  885
  925
  968
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
Cash from operations, $m
  265
  355
  361
  368
  376
  385
  394
  405
  416
  429
  442
  430
  445
  462
  479
  497
  517
  538
  560
  583
  607
  633
  660
  689
  719
  751
  784
  820
  857
  896
  937
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
New CAPEX, $m
  -40
  -13
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -271
  -41
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -99
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -160
Free cash flow, $m
  -6
  314
  321
  326
  332
  338
  345
  353
  362
  372
  382
  367
  379
  392
  406
  420
  436
  453
  470
  489
  509
  530
  552
  575
  599
  625
  652
  681
  711
  743
  777
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  106
  45
  54
  62
  69
  77
  84
  92
  99
  107
  115
  123
  131
  139
  148
  157
  167
  176
  187
  197
  208
  220
  232
  244
  257
  271
  285
  300
  316
  332
  350
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -89
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  10
  45
  54
  62
  69
  77
  84
  92
  99
  107
  115
  123
  131
  139
  148
  157
  167
  176
  187
  197
  208
  220
  232
  244
  257
  271
  285
  300
  316
  332
  350
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -3
  360
  375
  388
  401
  415
  429
  445
  461
  479
  497
  490
  510
  531
  554
  578
  603
  629
  657
  686
  717
  749
  783
  819
  856
  896
  938
  981
  1,027
  1,075
  1,126
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -60
  -22
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -36
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  450
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  788
  350
  359
  368
  378
  390
  402
  414
  428
  443
  432
  448
  465
  484
  503
  524
  546
  569
  593
  618
  645
  674
  703
  735
  768
  803
  839
  878
  918
  961
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  756
  320
  312
  303
  293
  283
  271
  259
  246
  232
  205
  191
  177
  162
  148
  133
  119
  105
  91
  79
  67
  56
  46
  37
  30
  23
  18
  14
  10
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

EMCOR Group, Inc. is an electrical and mechanical construction, and facilities services firm in the United States. The Company provides building services and industrial services. Its segments are United States electrical construction and facilities services; United States mechanical construction and facilities services; United States building services; United States industrial services, and United Kingdom building services. As of December 31, 2016, its services were provided to a range of commercial, industrial, utility and institutional customers through approximately 75 operating subsidiaries and joint venture entities. It is providing construction services relating to electrical and mechanical systems in various types of non-residential and certain residential facilities, and in providing services relating to the operation, maintenance and management of facilities, including refineries and petrochemical plants. It operates various electrical and mechanical systems.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  EMCOR Group (EME)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 14.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 31
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 26.5%
Total Debt to Equity 27.5%
Interest Coverage 28
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Return On Total Capital 9.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Return On Equity 12.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 13.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
EBITDA Margin 5.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Operating Margin 4.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Net Profit Margin 2.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Effective Tax Rate 37.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.5%
Payout Ratio 10.4%

EME stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EME stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7552 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by EMCOR Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of EMCOR Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EME stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EME is calculated based on our internal credit rating of EMCOR Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of EMCOR Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EME stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EME stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for EMCOR Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for EMCOR Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EME stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EME are equal to 6.4%.

Life of production assets of 17.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in EMCOR Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EME is equal to 2.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1537 million for EMCOR Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 59.211 million for EMCOR Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of EMCOR Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ EMCOR Group, Inc. Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [Oct-03-17 12:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Did EMCOR Group Inc (EME) Create Value For Shareholders?   [Oct-02-17 03:47PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ 5 Stocks With Exciting Interest Coverage Ratio   [Sep-18-17 10:14AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Growth Stocks to Buy for August 29th   [Aug-29-17 10:20AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Growth Stocks to Buy for August 18th   [Aug-18-17 09:44AM  Zacks]
▶ Here's Why Investing in EMCOR (EME) Makes Sense   [Aug-14-17 04:26PM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to EMCOR Group, Inc. : August 11, 2017   [Aug-11-17 05:22PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Emcor Group tops Street 2Q forecasts   [01:34AM  Associated Press]
▶ EMCOR Group, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Jul-27-17 07:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ EMCOR Group, Inc. Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [Jul-06-17 12:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Is EMCOR (EME) a Great Growth Stock?   [May-22-17 08:40AM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to EMCOR Group, Inc. : May 1, 2017   [May-01-17 03:53PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Emcor Group tops Street 1Q forecasts   [Apr-27-17 09:16AM  Associated Press]
▶ EMCOR Group, Inc. Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [Apr-05-17 04:21PM  Business Wire]
▶ Emcor Group misses 4Q profit forecasts   [07:49AM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of EME
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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