Intrinsic value of Elbit Imaging - EMITF

Previous Close

$2.83

  Intrinsic Value

$145.95

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

  Value-price divergence*

+5000%

Previous close

$2.83

 
Intrinsic value

$145.95

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+5000%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as EMITF.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EMITF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2015), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2015(a)
   2016
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -16.20
  14.30
  13.37
  12.53
  11.78
  11.10
  10.49
  9.94
  9.45
  9.00
  8.60
  8.24
  7.92
  7.63
  7.36
  7.13
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.82
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
Revenue, $m
  119
  136
  154
  174
  194
  216
  238
  262
  287
  312
  339
  367
  396
  426
  458
  490
  524
  560
  596
  634
  674
  715
  759
  803
  850
  899
  950
  1,003
  1,059
  1,117
  1,178
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  -67
  -76
  -86
  -96
  -107
  -118
  -130
  -142
  -155
  -168
  -182
  -197
  -212
  -227
  -243
  -260
  -278
  -296
  -315
  -334
  -355
  -376
  -398
  -422
  -446
  -471
  -498
  -525
  -554
  -584
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  204
  -67
  -76
  -86
  -96
  -107
  -118
  -130
  -142
  -155
  -168
  -182
  -197
  -212
  -227
  -243
  -260
  -278
  -296
  -315
  -334
  -355
  -376
  -398
  -422
  -446
  -471
  -498
  -525
  -554
  -584
Operating income, $m
  -86
  203
  231
  260
  290
  322
  356
  392
  429
  467
  507
  549
  593
  638
  685
  734
  784
  837
  892
  949
  1,009
  1,070
  1,135
  1,202
  1,272
  1,345
  1,421
  1,501
  1,584
  1,671
  1,762
EBITDA, $m
  -86
  203
  231
  260
  290
  322
  356
  392
  429
  467
  507
  549
  593
  638
  685
  734
  784
  837
  892
  949
  1,009
  1,070
  1,135
  1,202
  1,272
  1,345
  1,421
  1,501
  1,584
  1,671
  1,762
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  21
  21
  25
  29
  33
  37
  41
  46
  51
  55
  61
  66
  72
  78
  84
  90
  96
  103
  110
  118
  125
  133
  142
  150
  159
  169
  179
  189
  200
  211
Earnings before tax, $m
  -86
  183
  209
  235
  262
  290
  319
  350
  383
  417
  452
  489
  527
  566
  607
  650
  695
  741
  789
  839
  891
  945
  1,001
  1,060
  1,121
  1,185
  1,252
  1,322
  1,395
  1,471
  1,551
Tax expense, $m
  1
  49
  57
  63
  71
  78
  86
  95
  103
  113
  122
  132
  142
  153
  164
  176
  188
  200
  213
  226
  241
  255
  270
  286
  303
  320
  338
  357
  377
  397
  419
Net income, $m
  -50
  134
  153
  171
  191
  212
  233
  256
  280
  304
  330
  357
  384
  413
  443
  475
  507
  541
  576
  612
  650
  690
  731
  774
  819
  865
  914
  965
  1,018
  1,074
  1,132

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  51
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  731
  834
  946
  1,065
  1,190
  1,322
  1,461
  1,606
  1,758
  1,916
  2,081
  2,252
  2,431
  2,616
  2,809
  3,009
  3,217
  3,433
  3,658
  3,892
  4,136
  4,389
  4,653
  4,929
  5,216
  5,515
  5,828
  6,154
  6,495
  6,852
  7,224
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  680
  834
  946
  1,065
  1,190
  1,322
  1,461
  1,606
  1,758
  1,916
  2,081
  2,252
  2,431
  2,616
  2,809
  3,009
  3,217
  3,433
  3,658
  3,892
  4,136
  4,389
  4,653
  4,929
  5,216
  5,515
  5,828
  6,154
  6,495
  6,852
  7,224
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.175
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  -159
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
Total debt, $m
  587
  612
  712
  819
  932
  1,051
  1,176
  1,306
  1,443
  1,585
  1,734
  1,888
  2,049
  2,216
  2,389
  2,569
  2,756
  2,951
  3,153
  3,364
  3,583
  3,811
  4,049
  4,297
  4,555
  4,825
  5,106
  5,400
  5,707
  6,028
  6,363
Total liabilities, $m
  726
  751
  851
  958
  1,071
  1,190
  1,315
  1,445
  1,582
  1,724
  1,873
  2,027
  2,188
  2,355
  2,528
  2,708
  2,895
  3,090
  3,292
  3,503
  3,722
  3,950
  4,188
  4,436
  4,694
  4,964
  5,245
  5,539
  5,846
  6,167
  6,502
Total equity, $m
  5
  83
  95
  106
  119
  132
  146
  161
  176
  192
  208
  225
  243
  262
  281
  301
  322
  343
  366
  389
  414
  439
  465
  493
  522
  552
  583
  615
  650
  685
  722
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  731
  834
  946
  1,064
  1,190
  1,322
  1,461
  1,606
  1,758
  1,916
  2,081
  2,252
  2,431
  2,617
  2,809
  3,009
  3,217
  3,433
  3,658
  3,892
  4,136
  4,389
  4,653
  4,929
  5,216
  5,516
  5,828
  6,154
  6,496
  6,852
  7,224
Debt-to-equity ratio
  117.400
  7.330
  7.530
  7.690
  7.830
  7.950
  8.050
  8.130
  8.210
  8.270
  8.330
  8.380
  8.430
  8.470
  8.510
  8.540
  8.570
  8.600
  8.620
  8.640
  8.660
  8.680
  8.700
  8.720
  8.730
  8.750
  8.760
  8.770
  8.790
  8.800
  8.810
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.007
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -50
  134
  153
  171
  191
  212
  233
  256
  280
  304
  330
  357
  384
  413
  443
  475
  507
  541
  576
  612
  650
  690
  731
  774
  819
  865
  914
  965
  1,018
  1,074
  1,132
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  -25
  134
  153
  171
  191
  212
  233
  256
  280
  304
  330
  357
  384
  413
  443
  475
  507
  541
  576
  612
  650
  690
  731
  774
  819
  865
  914
  965
  1,018
  1,074
  1,132
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
Cash from operations, $m
  -24
  135
  155
  173
  193
  214
  235
  258
  282
  307
  333
  359
  387
  416
  447
  478
  510
  544
  579
  616
  654
  694
  735
  778
  823
  870
  919
  970
  1,024
  1,080
  1,138
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  49
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  25
  135
  155
  173
  193
  214
  235
  258
  282
  307
  333
  359
  387
  416
  447
  478
  510
  544
  579
  616
  654
  694
  735
  778
  823
  870
  919
  970
  1,024
  1,080
  1,138
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -20
  25
  100
  107
  113
  119
  125
  131
  137
  142
  148
  154
  161
  167
  173
  180
  187
  195
  202
  211
  219
  228
  238
  248
  258
  270
  281
  294
  307
  321
  335
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -31
  25
  100
  107
  113
  119
  125
  131
  137
  142
  148
  154
  161
  167
  173
  180
  187
  195
  202
  211
  219
  228
  238
  248
  258
  270
  281
  294
  307
  321
  335
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -6
  160
  255
  280
  306
  333
  360
  389
  419
  449
  481
  514
  548
  583
  620
  658
  698
  739
  782
  827
  873
  922
  973
  1,026
  1,082
  1,140
  1,201
  1,264
  1,331
  1,400
  1,473
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  58
  -78
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  82
  244
  268
  293
  319
  346
  374
  403
  433
  464
  497
  530
  565
  601
  638
  677
  717
  759
  803
  849
  897
  947
  999
  1,053
  1,110
  1,169
  1,232
  1,297
  1,365
  1,436
Discount rate, %
 
  14.70
  15.44
  16.21
  17.02
  17.87
  18.76
  19.70
  20.68
  21.72
  22.80
  23.94
  25.14
  26.40
  27.72
  29.10
  30.56
  32.09
  33.69
  35.38
  37.15
  39.00
  40.95
  43.00
  45.15
  47.41
  49.78
  52.27
  54.88
  57.63
  60.51
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  71
  183
  171
  156
  140
  123
  106
  90
  74
  60
  47
  36
  27
  20
  14
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Elbit Imaging Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates in commercial centers, hotels, medical industries, and plots businesses in Western Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, and internationally. It initiates, constructs, and sells commercial centers and other mixed-use real property projects, such as offices, residential units, conference centers, and leisure facilities. The company also operates and manages its hotel complex in Romania, which comprises Radisson Blue and Park Inn hotels, and other apartments. In addition, it is involved in the research and development, production, and marketing of magnetic resonance imaging guided focused ultrasound treatment equipment; and development of stem cell population expansion technologies, and stem cell therapy products for transplantation and regenerative medicine. The company sells plots in India, including residential projects. Elbit Imaging Ltd. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Petach Tikva, Israel.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Elbit Imaging (EMITF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -0
Price to Free Cash Flow -0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -16.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 7800%
Total Debt to Equity 11740%
Interest Coverage -8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -4.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Return On Total Capital -7.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Return On Equity -147.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -29.5%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
EBITDA Margin -63.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -123.5%
Operating Margin -71.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -130.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -72.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -131.2%
Net Profit Margin -42%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -63.3%
Effective Tax Rate -1.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

EMITF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EMITF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $119 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Elbit Imaging. The default revenue input number comes from 2015 income statement of Elbit Imaging. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EMITF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.7%, whose default value for EMITF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Elbit Imaging, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Elbit Imaging.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EMITF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to -49.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EMITF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Elbit Imaging.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Elbit Imaging. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EMITF stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EMITF are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Elbit Imaging operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EMITF is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $5 million for Elbit Imaging - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 9.207 million for Elbit Imaging is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Elbit Imaging at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ [$$] Clinical Development News, May 8-12   [12:31AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Elbit Imaging Announces Update Regarding Class Action   [May-02-17 02:47PM  Accesswire]
▶ Elbit Imaging Ltd. Announces Notes Buyback   [Dec-22-16 12:50PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Elbit Imaging Ltd. Announces Notes Buyback   [Dec-15-16 02:13PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Elbit Imaging Ltd. Announces Third Quarter Results for 2016   [Dec-02-16 01:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Elbit Imaging Ltd. Announces Notes Buyback   [Sep-29-16 02:10PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Elbit Imaging Ltd. Announces Notes Buyback   [Sep-01-16 11:05AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Elbit Imaging Ltd. Announces Notes Buyback   [Jul-14-16 10:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Elbit Imaging Ltd. Announces Notes Buyback   [Jun-16-16 11:39AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Elbit Imaging Ltd. Announces First Quarter Results for 2016   [May-31-16 01:16PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Elbit Imaging Ltd. Announces Notes Buyback   [May-05-16 10:14AM  GlobeNewswire]
Stock chart of EMITF Financial statements of EMITF
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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