Intrinsic value of Emcore - EMKR

Previous Close

$5.30

  Intrinsic Value

$6.94

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+31%

Previous close

$5.30

 
Intrinsic value

$6.94

 
Up/down potential

+31%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of EMKR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  33.70
  33.60
  30.74
  28.17
  25.85
  23.76
  21.89
  20.20
  18.68
  17.31
  16.08
  14.97
  13.97
  13.08
  12.27
  11.54
  10.89
  10.30
  9.77
  9.29
  8.86
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.53
  7.28
  7.05
  6.85
  6.66
  6.50
  6.35
Revenue, $m
  123
  164
  215
  275
  347
  429
  523
  628
  746
  875
  1,015
  1,168
  1,331
  1,505
  1,689
  1,884
  2,090
  2,305
  2,530
  2,765
  3,010
  3,265
  3,531
  3,807
  4,093
  4,392
  4,701
  5,023
  5,358
  5,706
  6,068
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  139
  182
  233
  293
  363
  442
  532
  631
  740
  859
  988
  1,126
  1,273
  1,429
  1,594
  1,768
  1,950
  2,140
  2,339
  2,547
  2,762
  2,987
  3,220
  3,463
  3,715
  3,977
  4,250
  4,533
  4,827
  5,134
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
Total operating expenses, $m
  115
  150
  193
  245
  305
  375
  455
  545
  644
  753
  873
  1,002
  1,140
  1,288
  1,444
  1,609
  1,784
  1,966
  2,156
  2,356
  2,564
  2,779
  3,005
  3,238
  3,482
  3,734
  3,996
  4,270
  4,553
  4,848
  5,155
Operating income, $m
  8
  14
  22
  31
  41
  54
  68
  84
  102
  121
  143
  166
  191
  217
  245
  275
  306
  339
  373
  409
  447
  485
  526
  568
  612
  657
  705
  754
  805
  858
  913
EBITDA, $m
  12
  16
  24
  34
  45
  59
  74
  91
  110
  132
  155
  179
  206
  235
  265
  297
  331
  366
  403
  442
  482
  524
  567
  613
  660
  709
  760
  813
  868
  925
  984
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
Earnings before tax, $m
  8
  14
  21
  30
  40
  51
  65
  80
  97
  115
  135
  157
  180
  205
  231
  259
  288
  319
  351
  385
  420
  456
  494
  533
  574
  617
  661
  707
  755
  804
  856
Tax expense, $m
  0
  4
  6
  8
  11
  14
  18
  22
  26
  31
  36
  42
  49
  55
  62
  70
  78
  86
  95
  104
  113
  123
  133
  144
  155
  167
  178
  191
  204
  217
  231
Net income, $m
  8
  10
  15
  22
  29
  38
  47
  58
  70
  84
  99
  114
  131
  149
  169
  189
  210
  233
  256
  281
  306
  333
  360
  389
  419
  450
  482
  516
  551
  587
  625

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  68
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  144
  130
  170
  217
  274
  339
  413
  496
  589
  690
  801
  921
  1,050
  1,188
  1,333
  1,487
  1,649
  1,819
  1,997
  2,182
  2,376
  2,577
  2,787
  3,004
  3,231
  3,466
  3,711
  3,965
  4,229
  4,504
  4,789
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  76
  130
  170
  217
  274
  339
  413
  496
  589
  690
  801
  921
  1,050
  1,188
  1,333
  1,487
  1,649
  1,819
  1,997
  2,182
  2,376
  2,577
  2,787
  3,004
  3,231
  3,466
  3,711
  3,965
  4,229
  4,504
  4,789
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.618
  1.262
  1.265
  1.267
  1.266
  1.265
  1.266
  1.266
  1.267
  1.268
  1.267
  1.268
  1.268
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
Average production assets, $m
  -25
  19
  25
  32
  41
  50
  61
  74
  87
  102
  119
  137
  156
  176
  198
  220
  244
  270
  296
  324
  352
  382
  413
  445
  479
  514
  550
  588
  627
  668
  710
Working capital, $m
  103
  21
  28
  36
  45
  56
  68
  82
  97
  114
  132
  152
  173
  196
  220
  245
  272
  300
  329
  359
  391
  424
  459
  495
  532
  571
  611
  653
  697
  742
  789
Total debt, $m
  0
  8
  18
  29
  43
  58
  76
  96
  118
  143
  169
  198
  229
  262
  297
  334
  373
  413
  456
  501
  547
  595
  646
  698
  752
  809
  867
  928
  992
  1,058
  1,126
Total liabilities, $m
  23
  31
  41
  52
  66
  81
  99
  119
  141
  166
  192
  221
  252
  285
  320
  357
  396
  437
  479
  524
  570
  619
  669
  721
  775
  832
  891
  952
  1,015
  1,081
  1,149
Total equity, $m
  121
  99
  129
  165
  208
  257
  314
  377
  447
  525
  609
  700
  798
  903
  1,013
  1,130
  1,253
  1,382
  1,518
  1,659
  1,806
  1,959
  2,118
  2,283
  2,455
  2,634
  2,820
  3,013
  3,214
  3,423
  3,640
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  144
  130
  170
  217
  274
  338
  413
  496
  588
  691
  801
  921
  1,050
  1,188
  1,333
  1,487
  1,649
  1,819
  1,997
  2,183
  2,376
  2,578
  2,787
  3,004
  3,230
  3,466
  3,711
  3,965
  4,229
  4,504
  4,789
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.080
  0.140
  0.180
  0.200
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.280
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.697
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760
  0.760

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  8
  10
  15
  22
  29
  38
  47
  58
  70
  84
  99
  114
  131
  149
  169
  189
  210
  233
  256
  281
  306
  333
  360
  389
  419
  450
  482
  516
  551
  587
  625
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
Funds from operations, $m
  8
  12
  18
  25
  33
  43
  53
  66
  79
  94
  110
  128
  147
  167
  188
  211
  235
  260
  286
  313
  341
  371
  402
  434
  467
  502
  537
  575
  614
  654
  696
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  5
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
Cash from operations, $m
  12
  7
  11
  17
  24
  32
  41
  52
  64
  77
  92
  108
  126
  144
  164
  186
  208
  232
  257
  283
  310
  338
  367
  398
  430
  463
  497
  533
  570
  609
  649
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
New CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -9
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
Free cash flow, $m
  3
  1
  4
  7
  12
  18
  25
  33
  43
  54
  65
  79
  93
  109
  125
  143
  162
  182
  203
  225
  249
  273
  298
  324
  352
  380
  410
  440
  472
  505
  540
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  8
  10
  11
  13
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  14
  15
  15
  14
  12
  9
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1
  22
  25
  26
  27
  28
  27
  25
  22
  24
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  4
  23
  28
  34
  39
  46
  52
  58
  65
  78
  92
  107
  124
  141
  160
  180
  201
  223
  246
  270
  295
  321
  348
  377
  406
  437
  468
  501
  536
  571
  608
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -14
  -25
  -30
  -36
  -43
  -49
  -56
  -63
  -70
  -77
  -84
  -91
  -98
  -104
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -166
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -193
  -201
  -209
  -217
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  47
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  4
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  18
  22
  25
  29
  34
  39
  44
  49
  55
  61
  67
  73
  80
  87
  95
  102
  110
  119
  127
  136
  146
  155
  165
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  45
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  1
  8
  16
  26
  37
  49
  63
  78
  94
  111
  129
  148
  168
  189
  211
  234
  258
  282
  308
  335
  363
  391
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  44
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  0
  4
  8
  11
  14
  17
  19
  20
  20
  20
  20
  19
  17
  16
  14
  12
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  85.8
  76.1
  69.5
  64.9
  62.0
  60.2
  59.4
  59.4
  59.4
  59.4
  59.4
  59.4
  59.4
  59.4
  59.4
  59.4
  59.4
  59.4
  59.4
  59.4
  59.4
  59.4
  59.4
  59.4
  59.4
  59.4
  59.4
  59.4
  59.4
  59.4

EMCORE Corporation is engaged in designing and manufacturing indium phosphide (InP) optical chips, components, subsystems and systems for the broadband and specialty fiber optics market. The Company focuses on linear fiber optic transmission technology. The Company operates through Fiber Optics segment. The Company provides optical components, and also end-to-end solutions for high-speed communications network infrastructures. The Company's optical technologies are designed for cable television (CATV) and fiber-to-the-premise (FTTP) networks, telecommunications and data centers, satellite communications, aerospace and defense, wireless networks, and broadcast and professional audio/video systems. The Company's fiber optics products enable information that is modulated on light signals to be transmitted, routed (switched) and received in communication systems and networks.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Emcore (EMKR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.9
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 71.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 33.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 66.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 27.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Return On Total Capital 7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.9%
Return On Equity 7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.5%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.7%
EBITDA Margin 9.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Operating Margin 6.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Net Profit Margin 6.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

EMKR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EMKR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $123 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Emcore. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Emcore. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EMKR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 33.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EMKR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Emcore, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Emcore.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EMKR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $11 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EMKR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Emcore.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Emcore. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EMKR stock is equal to 2.9%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EMKR are equal to 11.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Emcore operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EMKR is equal to 13%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $121 million for Emcore - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27 million for Emcore is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Emcore at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Emcore: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-03-18 09:29AM  Associated Press]
▶ EMCORE Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [Feb-06-18 06:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Emcore misses 1Q profit forecasts   [06:07AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to EMCORE Corp. : January 1, 2018   [Jan-01-18 11:34AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to EMCORE Corp. : December 19, 2017   [Dec-19-17 12:52PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to EMCORE Corp. : December 8, 2017   [Dec-08-17 12:45PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Emcore posts 4Q profit   [06:27AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to EMCORE Corp. : November 27, 2017   [Nov-27-17 01:20PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to EMCORE Corp. : November 10, 2017   [Nov-10-17 12:19PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to EMCORE Corp. : October 30, 2017   [Oct-30-17 11:44AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to EMCORE Corp. : October 2, 2017   [Oct-02-17 10:49AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to EMCORE Corp. : September 7, 2017   [Sep-07-17 01:02PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Emcore meets 3Q profit forecasts   [Aug-04-17 01:49AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to EMCORE Corp. : June 13, 2017   [Jun-13-17 12:27PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to EMCORE Corp. : June 1, 2017   [Jun-01-17 01:47PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to EMCORE Corp. : May 19, 2017   [May-19-17 01:51PM  Capital Cube]
▶ EMCORE Corp.: Strong price momentum but will it sustain?   [May-05-17 02:32PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Emcore beats Street 2Q forecasts   [06:08AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to EMCORE Corp. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 04:41PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Harry Boxer: These four momentum stocks are breaking out   [Feb-15-17 05:41PM  MarketWatch]
▶ Emcore tops Street 1Q forecasts   [Feb-07-17 06:43PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of EMKR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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