Intrinsic value of Emcore - EMKR

Previous Close

$8.45

  Intrinsic Value

$307.65

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

  Value-price divergence*

-150%

Previous close

$8.45

 
Intrinsic value

$307.65

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-150%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EMKR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.20
  50.00
  45.50
  41.45
  37.81
  34.52
  31.57
  28.91
  26.52
  24.37
  22.43
  20.69
  19.12
  17.71
  16.44
  15.29
  14.27
  13.34
  12.50
  11.75
  11.08
  10.47
  9.92
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.36
  7.12
Revenue, $m
  92
  138
  201
  284
  391
  527
  693
  893
  1,130
  1,405
  1,721
  2,077
  2,474
  2,912
  3,390
  3,909
  4,466
  5,062
  5,695
  6,365
  7,070
  7,810
  8,585
  9,395
  10,239
  11,119
  12,034
  12,985
  13,975
  15,002
  16,070
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  42
  61
  86
  119
  160
  211
  271
  343
  427
  523
  631
  752
  885
  1,031
  1,188
  1,358
  1,539
  1,731
  1,935
  2,149
  2,374
  2,610
  2,856
  3,113
  3,380
  3,658
  3,948
  4,248
  4,561
  4,885
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  65
  66
  68
  70
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  91
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  108
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  129
  132
Total operating expenses, $m
  89
  107
  127
  154
  189
  231
  284
  346
  420
  506
  604
  714
  837
  972
  1,120
  1,279
  1,452
  1,635
  1,829
  2,036
  2,252
  2,480
  2,718
  2,967
  3,227
  3,497
  3,778
  4,071
  4,374
  4,690
  5,017
Operating income, $m
  3
  31
  74
  130
  203
  295
  409
  547
  710
  899
  1,117
  1,363
  1,637
  1,940
  2,271
  2,629
  3,015
  3,427
  3,866
  4,329
  4,817
  5,330
  5,867
  6,428
  7,013
  7,622
  8,256
  8,915
  9,601
  10,313
  11,053
EBITDA, $m
  6
  31
  74
  130
  203
  295
  409
  547
  710
  899
  1,117
  1,363
  1,637
  1,940
  2,271
  2,629
  3,015
  3,427
  3,866
  4,329
  4,817
  5,330
  5,867
  6,428
  7,013
  7,622
  8,256
  8,915
  9,601
  10,313
  11,053
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  18
  21
  25
  29
  33
  38
  43
  48
  53
  59
  65
  71
  77
  84
  91
  98
  105
  113
Earnings before tax, $m
  3
  31
  73
  129
  201
  293
  406
  542
  704
  892
  1,107
  1,350
  1,622
  1,922
  2,249
  2,604
  2,986
  3,394
  3,828
  4,287
  4,770
  5,277
  5,808
  6,363
  6,942
  7,545
  8,172
  8,824
  9,503
  10,207
  10,940
Tax expense, $m
  0
  8
  20
  35
  54
  79
  110
  146
  190
  241
  299
  365
  438
  519
  607
  703
  806
  916
  1,034
  1,157
  1,288
  1,425
  1,568
  1,718
  1,874
  2,037
  2,206
  2,383
  2,566
  2,756
  2,954
Net income, $m
  8
  23
  53
  94
  147
  214
  296
  396
  514
  651
  808
  986
  1,184
  1,403
  1,642
  1,901
  2,180
  2,478
  2,794
  3,129
  3,482
  3,852
  4,240
  4,645
  5,068
  5,508
  5,966
  6,442
  6,937
  7,451
  7,986

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  64
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  127
  95
  138
  195
  268
  361
  474
  612
  774
  963
  1,178
  1,422
  1,694
  1,994
  2,322
  2,677
  3,059
  3,467
  3,901
  4,359
  4,842
  5,349
  5,880
  6,435
  7,013
  7,616
  8,242
  8,894
  9,572
  10,276
  11,007
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  63
  95
  138
  195
  268
  361
  474
  612
  774
  963
  1,178
  1,422
  1,694
  1,994
  2,322
  2,677
  3,059
  3,467
  3,901
  4,359
  4,842
  5,349
  5,880
  6,435
  7,013
  7,616
  8,242
  8,894
  9,572
  10,276
  11,007
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.460
  1.453
  1.457
  1.456
  1.459
  1.460
  1.462
  1.459
  1.460
  1.459
  1.461
  1.461
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
Average production assets, $m
  -23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  93
  43
  63
  89
  123
  166
  218
  281
  356
  443
  542
  654
  779
  917
  1,068
  1,231
  1,407
  1,595
  1,794
  2,005
  2,227
  2,460
  2,704
  2,959
  3,225
  3,502
  3,791
  4,090
  4,402
  4,726
  5,062
Total debt, $m
  0
  10
  24
  42
  65
  94
  130
  174
  225
  285
  354
  431
  517
  612
  716
  829
  950
  1,079
  1,217
  1,362
  1,515
  1,676
  1,844
  2,020
  2,203
  2,394
  2,593
  2,799
  3,014
  3,237
  3,469
Total liabilities, $m
  20
  30
  44
  62
  85
  114
  150
  194
  245
  305
  374
  451
  537
  632
  736
  849
  970
  1,099
  1,237
  1,382
  1,535
  1,696
  1,864
  2,040
  2,223
  2,414
  2,613
  2,819
  3,034
  3,257
  3,489
Total equity, $m
  107
  65
  94
  133
  183
  246
  324
  418
  529
  657
  805
  971
  1,157
  1,362
  1,586
  1,829
  2,089
  2,368
  2,664
  2,977
  3,307
  3,654
  4,016
  4,395
  4,790
  5,201
  5,630
  6,075
  6,537
  7,018
  7,518
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  127
  95
  138
  195
  268
  360
  474
  612
  774
  962
  1,179
  1,422
  1,694
  1,994
  2,322
  2,678
  3,059
  3,467
  3,901
  4,359
  4,842
  5,350
  5,880
  6,435
  7,013
  7,615
  8,243
  8,894
  9,571
  10,275
  11,007
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.150
  0.250
  0.310
  0.350
  0.380
  0.400
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  8
  23
  53
  94
  147
  214
  296
  396
  514
  651
  808
  986
  1,184
  1,403
  1,642
  1,901
  2,180
  2,478
  2,794
  3,129
  3,482
  3,852
  4,240
  4,645
  5,068
  5,508
  5,966
  6,442
  6,937
  7,451
  7,986
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  -20
  23
  53
  94
  147
  214
  296
  396
  514
  651
  808
  986
  1,184
  1,403
  1,642
  1,901
  2,180
  2,478
  2,794
  3,129
  3,482
  3,852
  4,240
  4,645
  5,068
  5,508
  5,966
  6,442
  6,937
  7,451
  7,986
Change in working capital, $m
  -14
  14
  20
  26
  34
  43
  52
  63
  75
  87
  99
  112
  125
  138
  151
  163
  176
  188
  199
  211
  222
  233
  244
  255
  266
  277
  288
  300
  312
  324
  336
Cash from operations, $m
  -6
  8
  34
  68
  113
  171
  244
  333
  439
  564
  709
  874
  1,059
  1,265
  1,491
  1,738
  2,004
  2,290
  2,595
  2,918
  3,260
  3,619
  3,996
  4,390
  4,802
  5,231
  5,677
  6,142
  6,625
  7,128
  7,649
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -4
  -21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  -10
  -12
  34
  68
  113
  171
  244
  333
  439
  564
  709
  874
  1,059
  1,265
  1,491
  1,738
  2,004
  2,290
  2,595
  2,918
  3,260
  3,619
  3,996
  4,390
  4,802
  5,231
  5,677
  6,142
  6,625
  7,128
  7,649
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  10
  14
  18
  23
  29
  36
  43
  51
  60
  68
  77
  86
  95
  104
  113
  121
  129
  137
  145
  153
  161
  168
  176
  183
  191
  199
  207
  215
  223
  232
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1
  10
  14
  18
  23
  29
  36
  43
  51
  60
  68
  77
  86
  95
  104
  113
  121
  129
  137
  145
  153
  161
  168
  176
  183
  191
  199
  207
  215
  223
  232
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -9
  -2
  47
  86
  137
  201
  280
  376
  490
  624
  777
  951
  1,145
  1,360
  1,595
  1,850
  2,125
  2,419
  2,732
  3,064
  3,413
  3,780
  4,164
  4,566
  4,985
  5,422
  5,876
  6,349
  6,840
  7,351
  7,881
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  28
  -22
  -29
  -39
  -50
  -63
  -78
  -94
  -111
  -129
  -147
  -167
  -186
  -205
  -224
  -243
  -261
  -279
  -296
  -313
  -330
  -346
  -363
  -379
  -395
  -411
  -428
  -445
  -463
  -481
  -500
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  64
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  40
  18
  47
  86
  137
  202
  282
  380
  495
  630
  784
  959
  1,155
  1,371
  1,608
  1,864
  2,141
  2,436
  2,750
  3,083
  3,433
  3,801
  4,187
  4,590
  5,010
  5,448
  5,904
  6,377
  6,870
  7,382
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  39
  16
  41
  71
  106
  147
  191
  237
  284
  330
  372
  409
  439
  460
  472
  474
  466
  449
  423
  392
  355
  315
  274
  234
  195
  159
  127
  99
  75
  56
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

EMCORE Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells indium phosphide optical chips, components, subsystems, and systems for the broadband and specialty fiber optics market worldwide. It offers DFB laser modules and diodes, laser and avalanche chips, optical receivers, and broadband photodiodes for use in telecommunication, cable television, fiber-to-the-premises, defense and homeland security, satellite communication and broadcast, and professional audio/video applications. The company sells its products through direct sales force, application engineers, third party sales representatives, and distributors. EMCORE Corporation was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Alhambra, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Emcore (EMKR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.7
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -37
Price to Free Cash Flow -18.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Return On Total Capital 6.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.8%
Return On Equity 6.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.8%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.2%
EBITDA Margin 6.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.8%
Operating Margin 3.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.4%
Net Profit Margin 8.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.7%
Payout Ratio 487.5%

EMKR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EMKR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $92 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Emcore. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Emcore. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EMKR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 50% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EMKR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Emcore, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Emcore.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EMKR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 30.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $63 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EMKR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Emcore.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Emcore. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EMKR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EMKR are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Emcore operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EMKR is equal to 31.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $107 million for Emcore - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25.447 million for Emcore is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Emcore at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Emcore meets 3Q profit forecasts   [Aug-04-17 01:49AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to EMCORE Corp. : June 13, 2017   [Jun-13-17 12:27PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to EMCORE Corp. : June 1, 2017   [Jun-01-17 01:47PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to EMCORE Corp. : May 19, 2017   [May-19-17 01:51PM  Capital Cube]
▶ EMCORE Corp.: Strong price momentum but will it sustain?   [May-05-17 02:32PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Emcore beats Street 2Q forecasts   [06:08AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to EMCORE Corp. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 04:41PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Harry Boxer: These four momentum stocks are breaking out   [Feb-15-17 05:41PM  MarketWatch]
▶ Emcore tops Street 1Q forecasts   [Feb-07-17 06:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ Emcore misses Street 3Q forecasts   [Aug-05-16 06:51AM  AP]
▶ New Mexico CEOs' pay climbs higher, according to group   [May-24-16 09:54AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ EMCORE acquirer makes another pickup, this time from California   [May-11-16 04:55PM  at bizjournals.com]
Stock chart of EMKR Financial statements of EMKR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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