Intrinsic value of Endurance Specialty Holdings - ENH

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$93.07

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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$93.07

 
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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as ENH.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ENH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in ), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
(a)
   1
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -100.00
  4.60
  4.64
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.76
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.93
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
Revenue, $m
  0
  2,198
  2,300
  2,407
  2,520
  2,640
  2,766
  2,898
  3,037
  3,184
  3,338
  3,501
  3,671
  3,851
  4,039
  4,238
  4,446
  4,665
  4,895
  5,137
  5,391
  5,658
  5,938
  6,233
  6,542
  6,867
  7,209
  7,567
  7,944
  8,339
  8,755
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,386
  1,449
  1,516
  1,587
  1,661
  1,739
  1,822
  1,909
  2,000
  2,096
  2,179
  2,285
  2,397
  2,514
  2,638
  2,767
  2,904
  3,047
  3,198
  3,356
  3,522
  3,696
  3,880
  4,072
  4,275
  4,487
  4,710
  4,945
  5,191
  5,450
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  367
  376
  386
  395
  405
  415
  426
  436
  447
  458
  470
  481
  494
  506
  518
  531
  545
  558
  572
  587
  601
  616
  632
  648
  664
  680
  697
  715
  733
  751
Total operating expenses, $m
  0
  1,753
  1,825
  1,902
  1,982
  2,066
  2,154
  2,248
  2,345
  2,447
  2,554
  2,649
  2,766
  2,891
  3,020
  3,156
  3,298
  3,449
  3,605
  3,770
  3,943
  4,123
  4,312
  4,512
  4,720
  4,939
  5,167
  5,407
  5,660
  5,924
  6,201
Operating income, $m
  0
  445
  474
  505
  538
  574
  611
  651
  693
  737
  784
  852
  904
  960
  1,019
  1,081
  1,147
  1,216
  1,290
  1,367
  1,449
  1,535
  1,625
  1,721
  1,822
  1,929
  2,041
  2,159
  2,284
  2,416
  2,554
EBITDA, $m
  0
  496
  527
  560
  594
  631
  671
  712
  756
  803
  852
  905
  960
  1,018
  1,080
  1,145
  1,214
  1,287
  1,363
  1,444
  1,530
  1,620
  1,715
  1,815
  1,921
  2,032
  2,150
  2,274
  2,404
  2,541
  2,686
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  47
  71
  98
  126
  156
  188
  221
  255
  292
  331
  371
  414
  459
  506
  555
  607
  662
  720
  780
  844
  910
  981
  1,054
  1,132
  1,213
  1,298
  1,388
  1,482
  1,581
  1,685
Earnings before tax, $m
  0
  397
  403
  407
  412
  417
  423
  430
  437
  445
  454
  481
  491
  502
  513
  526
  540
  554
  570
  587
  605
  624
  645
  667
  691
  716
  743
  771
  802
  834
  869
Tax expense, $m
  0
  107
  109
  110
  111
  113
  114
  116
  118
  120
  122
  130
  133
  135
  139
  142
  146
  150
  154
  158
  163
  169
  174
  180
  186
  193
  201
  208
  217
  225
  235
Net income, $m
  0
  290
  294
  297
  301
  305
  309
  314
  319
  325
  331
  351
  358
  366
  375
  384
  394
  405
  416
  428
  442
  456
  471
  487
  504
  523
  542
  563
  585
  609
  634

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  0
  13,822
  14,463
  15,139
  15,852
  16,603
  17,394
  18,227
  19,103
  20,026
  20,996
  22,016
  23,089
  24,218
  25,404
  26,651
  27,962
  29,339
  30,786
  32,307
  33,905
  35,584
  37,348
  39,200
  41,146
  43,190
  45,338
  47,593
  49,961
  52,449
  55,062
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  0
  13,822
  14,463
  15,139
  15,852
  16,603
  17,394
  18,227
  19,103
  20,026
  20,996
  22,016
  23,089
  24,218
  25,404
  26,651
  27,962
  29,339
  30,786
  32,307
  33,905
  35,584
  37,348
  39,200
  41,146
  43,190
  45,338
  47,593
  49,961
  52,449
  55,062
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
Average production assets, $m
  0
  229
  239
  250
  262
  275
  288
  301
  316
  331
  347
  364
  382
  400
  420
  441
  462
  485
  509
  534
  561
  588
  618
  648
  680
  714
  750
  787
  826
  867
  910
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  0
  1,081
  1,487
  1,915
  2,366
  2,842
  3,342
  3,870
  4,424
  5,008
  5,622
  6,268
  6,948
  7,662
  8,413
  9,202
  10,032
  10,904
  11,820
  12,782
  13,794
  14,857
  15,973
  17,146
  18,378
  19,672
  21,031
  22,458
  23,958
  25,532
  27,186
Total liabilities, $m
  0
  8,749
  9,155
  9,583
  10,034
  10,510
  11,010
  11,538
  12,092
  12,676
  13,290
  13,936
  14,616
  15,330
  16,081
  16,870
  17,700
  18,572
  19,488
  20,450
  21,462
  22,525
  23,641
  24,814
  26,046
  27,340
  28,699
  30,126
  31,626
  33,200
  34,854
Total equity, $m
  0
  5,073
  5,308
  5,556
  5,818
  6,093
  6,384
  6,689
  7,011
  7,349
  7,705
  8,080
  8,474
  8,888
  9,323
  9,781
  10,262
  10,767
  11,299
  11,857
  12,443
  13,059
  13,707
  14,386
  15,101
  15,851
  16,639
  17,467
  18,336
  19,249
  20,208
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  0
  13,822
  14,463
  15,139
  15,852
  16,603
  17,394
  18,227
  19,103
  20,025
  20,995
  22,016
  23,090
  24,218
  25,404
  26,651
  27,962
  29,339
  30,787
  32,307
  33,905
  35,584
  37,348
  39,200
  41,147
  43,191
  45,338
  47,593
  49,962
  52,449
  55,062
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.210
  0.280
  0.340
  0.410
  0.470
  0.520
  0.580
  0.630
  0.680
  0.730
  0.780
  0.820
  0.860
  0.900
  0.940
  0.980
  1.010
  1.050
  1.080
  1.110
  1.140
  1.170
  1.190
  1.220
  1.240
  1.260
  1.290
  1.310
  1.330
  1.350
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.000
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  0
  290
  294
  297
  301
  305
  309
  314
  319
  325
  331
  351
  358
  366
  375
  384
  394
  405
  416
  428
  442
  456
  471
  487
  504
  523
  542
  563
  585
  609
  634
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
Funds from operations, $m
  0
  341
  347
  351
  357
  362
  369
  375
  383
  391
  399
  404
  414
  424
  436
  448
  461
  475
  490
  506
  523
  541
  560
  581
  603
  626
  651
  677
  705
  735
  766
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  0
  498
  347
  351
  357
  362
  369
  375
  383
  391
  399
  404
  414
  424
  436
  448
  461
  475
  490
  506
  523
  541
  560
  581
  603
  626
  651
  677
  705
  735
  766
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -121
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
Free cash flow, $m
  0
  456
  303
  306
  309
  312
  316
  320
  325
  330
  335
  337
  343
  350
  358
  366
  375
  385
  396
  407
  419
  432
  446
  461
  477
  494
  512
  531
  552
  574
  597
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  363
  406
  428
  451
  475
  501
  527
  555
  584
  614
  646
  679
  714
  751
  789
  830
  872
  916
  963
  1,011
  1,063
  1,116
  1,173
  1,232
  1,294
  1,359
  1,428
  1,499
  1,575
  1,654
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  363
  406
  428
  451
  475
  501
  527
  555
  584
  614
  646
  679
  714
  751
  789
  830
  872
  916
  963
  1,011
  1,063
  1,116
  1,173
  1,232
  1,294
  1,359
  1,428
  1,499
  1,575
  1,654
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  819
  709
  734
  760
  787
  817
  847
  879
  914
  949
  982
  1,022
  1,065
  1,109
  1,156
  1,205
  1,257
  1,312
  1,370
  1,430
  1,495
  1,562
  1,634
  1,709
  1,788
  1,871
  1,959
  2,051
  2,149
  2,251
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  0
  -217
  -235
  -248
  -262
  -276
  -290
  -306
  -322
  -338
  -356
  -375
  -394
  -414
  -435
  -458
  -481
  -505
  -531
  -558
  -586
  -616
  -647
  -680
  -714
  -750
  -788
  -828
  -869
  -913
  -959
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  602
  473
  485
  498
  512
  526
  542
  558
  575
  593
  608
  629
  650
  674
  698
  724
  752
  781
  811
  844
  879
  915
  954
  994
  1,037
  1,083
  1,131
  1,182
  1,236
  1,292
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  578
  433
  422
  410
  397
  382
  366
  349
  330
  311
  289
  268
  247
  226
  205
  184
  164
  144
  125
  107
  91
  76
  62
  51
  40
  32
  24
  18
  13
  10
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Endurance Specialty Holdings Ltd., through its subsidiaries, underwrites specialty lines of personal and commercial property and casualty insurance and reinsurance worldwide. It operates in two segments, Insurance and Reinsurance. The Insurance segment provides agriculture insurance covering multi-peril crop insurance, crop hail, livestock risk protection, and other agriculture risk management products, as well as casualty insurance, healthcare liability insurance, and contract and commercial surety insurance. This segment also offers professional lines of insurance products, including directors’ and officers’ liability, errors and omissions, employment practices liability, environmental liability, fiduciary, and pension trust liability insurance; and property insurance, inland marine, ocean marine, marine war, energy, and aviation insurance. The Reinsurance segment provides catastrophe reinsurance for catastrophic perils primarily for property and workers’ compensation business; property reinsurance for property insurance policies; and casualty reinsurance for third party liability exposures, such as automobile, general, and umbrella liabilities, as well as for workers’ compensation. This segment also offers specialty line of business, including the reinsurance of aviation and space business, proportional and non-proportional reinsurance of hull and cargo insurance business, proportional and excess of loss coverages of contract and commercial surety business, personal accident coverages, political risk coverages, weather risk management products, and agriculture coverages for weather related perils, as well as protection from yield and price risks; and professional line of business reinsurance. The company distributes its products directly, as well as through independent agents, and insurance and reinsurance brokers. Endurance Specialty Holdings Ltd. was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Pembroke, Bermuda.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Endurance Specialty Holdings (ENH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

ENH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ENH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2101 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Endurance Specialty Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from income statement of Endurance Specialty Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ENH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ENH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Endurance Specialty Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Endurance Specialty Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ENH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 63.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $358 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ENH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.6% for Endurance Specialty Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Endurance Specialty Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ENH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ENH are equal to 10.4%.

Life of production assets of 6.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Endurance Specialty Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ENH is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4856 million for Endurance Specialty Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 67.613 million for Endurance Specialty Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Endurance Specialty Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.3 billion.


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Stock chart of ENH Financial statements of ENH
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The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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