Intrinsic value of EnerNOC - ENOC

Previous Close

$7.65

  Intrinsic Value

$0.36

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-95%

  Value-price divergence*

-26%

Previous close

$7.65

 
Intrinsic value

$0.36

 
Up/down potential

-95%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-26%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ENOC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.00
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  404
  412
  422
  432
  445
  458
  473
  489
  506
  525
  545
  567
  590
  614
  640
  668
  697
  728
  761
  796
  832
  871
  911
  954
  1,000
  1,047
  1,097
  1,150
  1,205
  1,264
  1,325
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  596
  609
  625
  642
  662
  683
  706
  731
  758
  787
  814
  848
  883
  920
  960
  1,002
  1,046
  1,093
  1,143
  1,196
  1,251
  1,310
  1,371
  1,436
  1,505
  1,577
  1,652
  1,732
  1,816
  1,904
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  440
  596
  609
  625
  642
  662
  683
  706
  731
  758
  787
  814
  848
  883
  920
  960
  1,002
  1,046
  1,093
  1,143
  1,196
  1,251
  1,310
  1,371
  1,436
  1,505
  1,577
  1,652
  1,732
  1,816
  1,904
Operating income, $m
  -36
  -184
  -188
  -193
  -198
  -204
  -210
  -217
  -225
  -233
  -242
  -248
  -258
  -268
  -280
  -292
  -305
  -318
  -332
  -348
  -364
  -380
  -398
  -417
  -437
  -457
  -479
  -502
  -527
  -552
  -579
EBITDA, $m
  -3
  -171
  -175
  -179
  -184
  -190
  -196
  -203
  -210
  -218
  -226
  -235
  -245
  -255
  -266
  -277
  -289
  -302
  -316
  -330
  -345
  -361
  -378
  -396
  -415
  -434
  -455
  -477
  -500
  -524
  -550
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Earnings before tax, $m
  -49
  -188
  -192
  -197
  -203
  -209
  -215
  -223
  -231
  -239
  -248
  -254
  -265
  -276
  -288
  -301
  -314
  -328
  -343
  -359
  -375
  -393
  -412
  -431
  -452
  -473
  -496
  -520
  -546
  -572
  -600
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -50
  -188
  -192
  -197
  -203
  -209
  -215
  -223
  -231
  -239
  -248
  -254
  -265
  -276
  -288
  -301
  -314
  -328
  -343
  -359
  -375
  -393
  -412
  -431
  -452
  -473
  -496
  -520
  -546
  -572
  -600

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  98
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  312
  266
  272
  279
  287
  296
  305
  316
  327
  339
  352
  366
  381
  397
  413
  431
  450
  470
  491
  514
  537
  562
  588
  616
  645
  676
  708
  742
  778
  816
  856
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  214
  266
  272
  279
  287
  296
  305
  316
  327
  339
  352
  366
  381
  397
  413
  431
  450
  470
  491
  514
  537
  562
  588
  616
  645
  676
  708
  742
  778
  816
  856
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.888
  1.549
  1.551
  1.548
  1.551
  1.547
  1.551
  1.547
  1.547
  1.549
  1.548
  1.549
  1.549
  1.547
  1.550
  1.550
  1.549
  1.549
  1.550
  1.549
  1.549
  1.550
  1.549
  1.549
  1.550
  1.549
  1.549
  1.550
  1.549
  1.549
  1.548
Average production assets, $m
  89
  91
  93
  95
  98
  101
  104
  108
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  253
  265
  278
  292
Working capital, $m
  91
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -23
Total debt, $m
  115
  120
  125
  131
  138
  146
  155
  164
  174
  185
  196
  209
  222
  236
  251
  267
  284
  301
  320
  340
  361
  383
  407
  431
  457
  485
  513
  544
  576
  609
  644
Total liabilities, $m
  233
  237
  242
  248
  255
  263
  272
  281
  291
  302
  313
  326
  339
  353
  368
  384
  401
  418
  437
  457
  478
  500
  524
  548
  574
  602
  630
  661
  693
  726
  761
Total equity, $m
  80
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  313
  266
  272
  279
  287
  296
  306
  316
  327
  339
  352
  366
  381
  397
  413
  431
  451
  470
  491
  514
  537
  562
  589
  616
  645
  676
  708
  743
  779
  816
  855
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.438
  4.090
  4.180
  4.280
  4.380
  4.490
  4.610
  4.720
  4.840
  4.950
  5.070
  5.180
  5.300
  5.410
  5.520
  5.620
  5.730
  5.830
  5.930
  6.020
  6.110
  6.200
  6.280
  6.360
  6.440
  6.520
  6.590
  6.660
  6.720
  6.790
  6.850
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.084
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -50
  -188
  -192
  -197
  -203
  -209
  -215
  -223
  -231
  -239
  -248
  -254
  -265
  -276
  -288
  -301
  -314
  -328
  -343
  -359
  -375
  -393
  -412
  -431
  -452
  -473
  -496
  -520
  -546
  -572
  -600
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  33
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
Funds from operations, $m
  -78
  -175
  -179
  -184
  -189
  -195
  -201
  -208
  -216
  -224
  -233
  -242
  -252
  -263
  -274
  -286
  -299
  -312
  -326
  -341
  -357
  -374
  -392
  -410
  -430
  -450
  -472
  -495
  -519
  -544
  -571
Change in working capital, $m
  -33
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  -45
  -175
  -179
  -184
  -189
  -195
  -201
  -208
  -215
  -224
  -232
  -242
  -252
  -262
  -273
  -285
  -298
  -312
  -326
  -341
  -357
  -373
  -391
  -409
  -429
  -450
  -471
  -494
  -518
  -543
  -570
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
New CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
Cash from investing activities, $m
  8
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -40
  -42
Free cash flow, $m
  -37
  -185
  -190
  -195
  -201
  -207
  -214
  -222
  -230
  -239
  -248
  -258
  -269
  -281
  -293
  -306
  -319
  -334
  -349
  -365
  -382
  -400
  -419
  -439
  -460
  -482
  -505
  -530
  -556
  -583
  -611
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  188
  193
  198
  203
  210
  216
  224
  232
  241
  250
  256
  267
  278
  290
  303
  316
  330
  345
  361
  378
  396
  414
  434
  455
  477
  500
  524
  550
  576
  605
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -3
  193
  198
  204
  210
  218
  224
  233
  242
  252
  262
  268
  280
  292
  305
  319
  333
  348
  364
  381
  399
  418
  437
  459
  481
  504
  529
  554
  582
  610
  640
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -40
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  35
  -188
  -193
  -198
  -203
  -210
  -216
  -224
  -232
  -241
  -250
  -256
  -267
  -278
  -290
  -303
  -316
  -330
  -345
  -361
  -378
  -396
  -414
  -434
  -455
  -477
  -500
  -524
  -550
  -576
  -605
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  51
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -129
  -185
  -189
  -194
  -200
  -206
  -213
  -220
  -228
  -237
  -246
  -256
  -266
  -278
  -290
  -302
  -316
  -330
  -345
  -361
  -378
  -396
  -414
  -434
  -455
  -477
  -500
  -524
  -549
  -576
Discount rate, %
 
  6.40
  6.72
  7.06
  7.41
  7.78
  8.17
  8.58
  9.01
  9.46
  9.93
  10.42
  10.95
  11.49
  12.07
  12.67
  13.31
  13.97
  14.67
  15.40
  16.17
  16.98
  17.83
  18.72
  19.66
  20.64
  21.67
  22.76
  23.89
  25.09
  26.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -122
  -162
  -154
  -146
  -137
  -129
  -120
  -110
  -101
  -92
  -83
  -74
  -65
  -56
  -48
  -41
  -34
  -28
  -23
  -18
  -14
  -11
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  30.1
  9.1
  2.7
  0.8
  0.2
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

EnerNOC, Inc. provides energy intelligence software (EIS) and demand response solutions to commercial, institutional, and industrial end-users of energy. The company offers EIS to enterprise customers with a Software-as-a-Service solution to manage energy cost visualization, budgets, forecasts, and accruals; utility bill validation and payment; facility optimization, including benchmarking facilities and identifying cost savings opportunities; energy project tracking; reporting for energy and sustainability disclosure and compliance; and peak energy demand and the related cost impacts. Its enterprise customers comprise manufacturing/industrial, commercial real estate, healthcare, government, education, and food sales and storage markets. The company also provides demand response solutions to utility customers and electric power grid operators. In addition, it offers professional services that support the implementation of EIS and help its enterprise customers to set the energy management strategy, as well as provide energy audits and retro-commissioning. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  EnerNOC (ENOC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.7
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -5.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -15.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 143.8%
Total Debt to Equity 143.8%
Interest Coverage -15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -12.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.7%
Return On Total Capital -23.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -25.7%
Return On Equity -51.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -46%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 40.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.5%
EBITDA Margin -3.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.2%
Operating Margin -8.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -16%
Pre-Tax Margin -12.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19%
Net Profit Margin -12.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.7%
Effective Tax Rate -2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

ENOC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ENOC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $404 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by EnerNOC. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of EnerNOC. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ENOC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.4%, whose default value for ENOC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of EnerNOC, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of EnerNOC.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ENOC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 144.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ENOC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for EnerNOC.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for EnerNOC. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ENOC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ENOC are equal to 22%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in EnerNOC operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ENOC is equal to -1.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $80 million for EnerNOC - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.551 million for EnerNOC is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of EnerNOC at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ International utility operator acquiring EnerNOC in $300M deal   [Jun-22-17 10:03AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ ETFs with exposure to EnerNOC, Inc. : June 16, 2017   [Jun-16-17 03:44PM  Capital Cube]
▶ EnerNOC, Inc. Gets 2017 Off to a Good Start   [May-09-17 12:05PM  Motley Fool]
▶ EnerNOC reports 1Q loss   [07:22AM  Associated Press]
▶ EnerNOC Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ [$$] Investor Periam Wants More Say in EnerNOC   [Apr-22-17 12:51AM  Barrons.com]
▶ EnerNOC Responds to Shareholder Filing   [Apr-18-17 05:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to EnerNOC, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 04:42PM  Capital Cube]
▶ EnerNOC reports 4Q loss   [07:18AM  Associated Press]
▶ EnerNOC Signs Demand Response Contract with FirstEnergy   [Jan-18-17 08:34AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ EnerNOC, Inc. Trounces Its Expectations   [Nov-03-16 01:45PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ EnerNOC Awarded Demand Management Contract with Con Edison   [Aug-31-16 08:34AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ EnerNOC to Present at Upcoming Investor Events   [Jul-25-16 08:35AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ EnerNOC taps former Acquia exec as new CFO following restructuring   [Jun-23-16 10:20AM  at bizjournals.com]
Stock chart of ENOC Financial statements of ENOC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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