Intrinsic value of Energizer Holdings - ENR

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$49.36

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ENR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.12
  10.50
  9.95
  9.45
  9.01
  8.61
  8.25
  7.92
  7.63
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.39
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
Revenue, $m
  1,634
  1,806
  1,985
  2,173
  2,369
  2,573
  2,785
  3,005
  3,235
  3,473
  3,721
  3,978
  4,246
  4,524
  4,813
  5,115
  5,428
  5,755
  6,096
  6,451
  6,821
  7,208
  7,612
  8,033
  8,474
  8,935
  9,417
  9,921
  10,449
  11,002
  11,580
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,803
  1,980
  2,165
  2,358
  2,559
  2,769
  2,986
  3,212
  3,447
  3,691
  3,922
  4,186
  4,460
  4,746
  5,043
  5,352
  5,674
  6,010
  6,360
  6,725
  7,106
  7,504
  7,920
  8,355
  8,809
  9,284
  9,782
  10,302
  10,847
  11,417
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,469
  1,803
  1,980
  2,165
  2,358
  2,559
  2,769
  2,986
  3,212
  3,447
  3,691
  3,922
  4,186
  4,460
  4,746
  5,043
  5,352
  5,674
  6,010
  6,360
  6,725
  7,106
  7,504
  7,920
  8,355
  8,809
  9,284
  9,782
  10,302
  10,847
  11,417
Operating income, $m
  166
  2
  5
  8
  10
  13
  16
  19
  23
  26
  29
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  126
  133
  140
  147
  155
  163
EBITDA, $m
  200
  53
  58
  64
  69
  75
  81
  88
  95
  102
  109
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  159
  168
  178
  189
  200
  211
  223
  235
  248
  261
  275
  290
  306
  322
  339
Interest expense (income), $m
  51
  49
  36
  43
  51
  58
  66
  75
  84
  93
  102
  112
  122
  133
  144
  156
  168
  180
  193
  207
  221
  235
  251
  267
  284
  301
  320
  339
  359
  380
  402
Earnings before tax, $m
  166
  -47
  -31
  -35
  -40
  -45
  -50
  -56
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -56
  -63
  -69
  -76
  -84
  -91
  -99
  -107
  -116
  -125
  -134
  -144
  -154
  -164
  -175
  -187
  -199
  -212
  -225
  -239
Tax expense, $m
  38
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  128
  -47
  -31
  -35
  -40
  -45
  -50
  -56
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -56
  -63
  -69
  -76
  -84
  -91
  -99
  -107
  -116
  -125
  -134
  -144
  -154
  -164
  -175
  -187
  -199
  -212
  -225
  -239

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  287
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,732
  1,596
  1,755
  1,921
  2,094
  2,275
  2,462
  2,657
  2,860
  3,071
  3,290
  3,517
  3,754
  4,000
  4,256
  4,522
  4,800
  5,088
  5,390
  5,703
  6,031
  6,373
  6,730
  7,103
  7,493
  7,900
  8,326
  8,772
  9,239
  9,727
  10,239
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,445
  1,596
  1,755
  1,921
  2,094
  2,275
  2,462
  2,657
  2,860
  3,071
  3,290
  3,517
  3,754
  4,000
  4,256
  4,522
  4,800
  5,088
  5,390
  5,703
  6,031
  6,373
  6,730
  7,103
  7,493
  7,900
  8,326
  8,772
  9,239
  9,727
  10,239
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.131
  1.132
  1.131
  1.131
  1.131
  1.131
  1.131
  1.131
  1.131
  1.131
  1.131
  1.131
  1.131
  1.131
  1.131
  1.131
  1.131
  1.131
  1.131
  1.131
  1.131
  1.131
  1.131
  1.131
  1.131
  1.131
  1.131
  1.131
  1.131
  1.131
  1.131
Average production assets, $m
  359
  397
  437
  478
  521
  566
  613
  661
  712
  764
  819
  875
  934
  995
  1,059
  1,125
  1,194
  1,266
  1,341
  1,419
  1,501
  1,586
  1,675
  1,767
  1,864
  1,966
  2,072
  2,183
  2,299
  2,420
  2,548
Working capital, $m
  357
  144
  159
  174
  189
  206
  223
  240
  259
  278
  298
  318
  340
  362
  385
  409
  434
  460
  488
  516
  546
  577
  609
  643
  678
  715
  753
  794
  836
  880
  926
Total debt, $m
  1,043
  718
  861
  1,010
  1,166
  1,328
  1,497
  1,673
  1,855
  2,045
  2,242
  2,447
  2,660
  2,881
  3,111
  3,351
  3,601
  3,861
  4,132
  4,414
  4,709
  5,017
  5,338
  5,674
  6,024
  6,391
  6,775
  7,176
  7,596
  8,036
  8,496
Total liabilities, $m
  1,762
  1,437
  1,580
  1,729
  1,885
  2,047
  2,216
  2,392
  2,574
  2,764
  2,961
  3,166
  3,379
  3,600
  3,830
  4,070
  4,320
  4,580
  4,851
  5,133
  5,428
  5,736
  6,057
  6,393
  6,743
  7,110
  7,494
  7,895
  8,315
  8,755
  9,215
Total equity, $m
  -30
  160
  176
  192
  209
  227
  246
  266
  286
  307
  329
  352
  375
  400
  426
  452
  480
  509
  539
  570
  603
  637
  673
  710
  749
  790
  833
  877
  924
  973
  1,024
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,732
  1,597
  1,756
  1,921
  2,094
  2,274
  2,462
  2,658
  2,860
  3,071
  3,290
  3,518
  3,754
  4,000
  4,256
  4,522
  4,800
  5,089
  5,390
  5,703
  6,031
  6,373
  6,730
  7,103
  7,492
  7,900
  8,327
  8,772
  9,239
  9,728
  10,239
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -34.767
  4.500
  4.900
  5.260
  5.570
  5.840
  6.080
  6.290
  6.490
  6.660
  6.810
  6.960
  7.080
  7.200
  7.310
  7.410
  7.500
  7.590
  7.670
  7.740
  7.810
  7.870
  7.930
  7.990
  8.040
  8.090
  8.140
  8.180
  8.220
  8.260
  8.300
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.180
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  128
  -47
  -31
  -35
  -40
  -45
  -50
  -56
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -56
  -63
  -69
  -76
  -84
  -91
  -99
  -107
  -116
  -125
  -134
  -144
  -154
  -164
  -175
  -187
  -199
  -212
  -225
  -239
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  34
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  79
  60
  64
  69
  73
  78
  82
  87
  92
  98
  103
  109
  115
  122
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  167
  176
Funds from operations, $m
  205
  4
  22
  21
  19
  17
  15
  13
  11
  9
  7
  4
  2
  -1
  -3
  -6
  -9
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -40
  -44
  -49
  -53
  -58
  -63
Change in working capital, $m
  11
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
Cash from operations, $m
  194
  68
  8
  6
  3
  1
  -2
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -13
  -16
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -102
  -109
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -167
New CAPEX, $m
  -29
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -127
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -371
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -133
  -139
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -180
  -188
  -198
  -208
  -219
  -230
  -242
  -254
  -267
  -281
  -294
Free cash flow, $m
  -177
  5
  -59
  -66
  -73
  -80
  -88
  -95
  -103
  -112
  -120
  -129
  -139
  -149
  -159
  -169
  -180
  -192
  -204
  -217
  -230
  -244
  -259
  -274
  -290
  -307
  -324
  -343
  -362
  -382
  -404
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  56
  -264
  143
  149
  156
  162
  169
  176
  182
  190
  197
  205
  213
  221
  230
  240
  250
  260
  271
  283
  295
  308
  321
  336
  351
  367
  384
  401
  420
  440
  460
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -32
  449
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  18
  185
  143
  149
  156
  162
  169
  176
  182
  190
  197
  205
  213
  221
  230
  240
  250
  260
  271
  283
  295
  308
  321
  336
  351
  367
  384
  401
  420
  440
  460
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -152
  -259
  84
  83
  83
  82
  81
  80
  79
  78
  77
  75
  74
  73
  72
  70
  69
  68
  67
  66
  65
  64
  63
  62
  61
  60
  59
  59
  58
  57
  57
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -30
  -416
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  226
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  68
  67
  66
  64
  62
  61
  59
  57
  55
  53
  50
  48
  46
  44
  41
  39
  37
  34
  32
  29
  27
  24
  22
  19
  17
  14
  11
  9
  6
Discount rate, %
 
  9.90
  10.40
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.64
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.13
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.83
  25.02
  26.27
  27.58
  28.96
  30.41
  31.93
  33.52
  35.20
  36.96
  38.81
  40.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  56
  49
  42
  36
  31
  25
  21
  17
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Energizer Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes household batteries, specialty batteries, and lighting products worldwide. It offers lithium, alkaline, carbon zinc, nickel metal hydride, zinc air, and silver oxide batteries; and hearing aid batteries, as well as primary rechargeable options under the Energizer and Eveready brands. The company also provides headlights, lanterns, kidÂ’s lights, and area lights, as well as flash lights under the Hard Case, Dolphin, and WeatherReady brands. In addition, it designs and markets automotive fragrance and appearance products under the Refresh Your Car!, California Scents, Driven, Bahama & Co., LEXOL, and Eagle One brands; and licenses the Energizer and Eveready brands to companies developing consumer solutions in gaming, automotive batteries, portable power for critical devices, LED light bulbs, and other lighting products. The company sells its products through direct sales force, distributors, and wholesalers; and through various retail locations, including mass merchandisers and warehouse clubs, food stores, drug and convenience stores, electronics specialty stores and department stores, hardware and automotive centers, and military stores, as well as through ecommerce. Energizer Holdings, Inc. is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Energizer Holdings (ENR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.8
Price to Sales 1.9
Price to Book -101.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -27.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -3273.3%
Total Debt to Equity -3476.7%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.5%
Return On Total Capital 13.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Return On Equity -284.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -88.1%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 43.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.4%
EBITDA Margin 15.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Operating Margin 10.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Net Profit Margin 7.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Effective Tax Rate 22.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -83.4%
Payout Ratio 49.2%

ENR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ENR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1634 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Energizer Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Energizer Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ENR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.9%, whose default value for ENR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Energizer Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Energizer Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ENR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 100%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ENR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5% for Energizer Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Energizer Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ENR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ENR are equal to 22%.

Life of production assets of 14.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Energizer Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ENR is equal to 8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-30 million for Energizer Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 62.645 million for Energizer Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Energizer Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.1 billion.


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Stock chart of ENR Financial statements of ENR Annual reports of ENR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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