Intrinsic value of EnerSys - ENS

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$82.51

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$82.51

 
Intrinsic value

$62.98

 
Up/down potential

-24%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ENS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -7.58
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,316
  2,362
  2,417
  2,479
  2,548
  2,626
  2,711
  2,803
  2,903
  3,010
  3,126
  3,250
  3,381
  3,522
  3,671
  3,829
  3,997
  4,175
  4,363
  4,561
  4,771
  4,992
  5,225
  5,471
  5,730
  6,003
  6,290
  6,592
  6,910
  7,245
  7,597
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,691
  1,729
  1,772
  1,821
  1,875
  1,935
  1,999
  2,069
  2,145
  2,226
  2,277
  2,369
  2,468
  2,572
  2,683
  2,801
  2,925
  3,057
  3,196
  3,343
  3,498
  3,661
  3,834
  4,015
  4,206
  4,408
  4,619
  4,842
  5,077
  5,323
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  470
  482
  494
  507
  519
  532
  546
  559
  573
  588
  602
  617
  633
  649
  665
  681
  698
  716
  734
  752
  771
  790
  810
  830
  851
  872
  894
  916
  939
  963
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,106
  2,161
  2,211
  2,266
  2,328
  2,394
  2,467
  2,545
  2,628
  2,718
  2,814
  2,879
  2,986
  3,101
  3,221
  3,348
  3,482
  3,623
  3,773
  3,930
  4,095
  4,269
  4,451
  4,644
  4,845
  5,057
  5,280
  5,513
  5,758
  6,016
  6,286
Operating income, $m
  210
  201
  206
  212
  221
  231
  244
  258
  274
  292
  313
  370
  395
  421
  450
  481
  515
  551
  590
  631
  676
  723
  774
  827
  885
  946
  1,010
  1,079
  1,152
  1,229
  1,311
EBITDA, $m
  266
  270
  275
  283
  292
  304
  317
  333
  351
  371
  392
  416
  443
  471
  502
  536
  572
  610
  652
  696
  743
  794
  848
  905
  966
  1,031
  1,100
  1,173
  1,250
  1,332
  1,419
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  87
  92
  97
  103
  109
Earnings before tax, $m
  182
  180
  184
  189
  197
  206
  217
  230
  244
  261
  279
  335
  357
  381
  407
  436
  467
  500
  535
  574
  614
  658
  705
  754
  807
  864
  923
  987
  1,054
  1,126
  1,202
Tax expense, $m
  50
  49
  50
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  70
  75
  90
  96
  103
  110
  118
  126
  135
  145
  155
  166
  178
  190
  204
  218
  233
  249
  266
  285
  304
  325
Net income, $m
  136
  131
  134
  138
  143
  150
  158
  168
  178
  190
  204
  244
  260
  278
  297
  318
  341
  365
  391
  419
  449
  480
  514
  551
  589
  630
  674
  720
  770
  822
  877

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  397
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,214
  1,853
  1,895
  1,944
  1,999
  2,059
  2,126
  2,198
  2,277
  2,361
  2,452
  2,549
  2,652
  2,762
  2,879
  3,003
  3,135
  3,274
  3,422
  3,577
  3,742
  3,915
  4,098
  4,291
  4,494
  4,708
  4,933
  5,170
  5,420
  5,682
  5,959
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,817
  1,853
  1,895
  1,944
  1,999
  2,059
  2,126
  2,198
  2,277
  2,361
  2,452
  2,549
  2,652
  2,762
  2,879
  3,003
  3,135
  3,274
  3,422
  3,577
  3,742
  3,915
  4,098
  4,291
  4,494
  4,708
  4,933
  5,170
  5,420
  5,682
  5,959
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
  1.275
Average production assets, $m
  516
  527
  539
  553
  568
  586
  604
  625
  647
  671
  697
  725
  754
  785
  819
  854
  891
  931
  973
  1,017
  1,064
  1,113
  1,165
  1,220
  1,278
  1,339
  1,403
  1,470
  1,541
  1,616
  1,694
Working capital, $m
  845
  480
  491
  503
  517
  533
  550
  569
  589
  611
  635
  660
  686
  715
  745
  777
  811
  848
  886
  926
  968
  1,013
  1,061
  1,111
  1,163
  1,219
  1,277
  1,338
  1,403
  1,471
  1,542
Total debt, $m
  629
  630
  658
  690
  725
  765
  808
  855
  906
  960
  1,019
  1,082
  1,149
  1,221
  1,297
  1,377
  1,463
  1,553
  1,649
  1,750
  1,856
  1,969
  2,088
  2,213
  2,345
  2,484
  2,630
  2,784
  2,946
  3,116
  3,295
Total liabilities, $m
  1,201
  1,202
  1,230
  1,262
  1,297
  1,337
  1,380
  1,427
  1,478
  1,532
  1,591
  1,654
  1,721
  1,793
  1,869
  1,949
  2,035
  2,125
  2,221
  2,322
  2,428
  2,541
  2,660
  2,785
  2,917
  3,056
  3,202
  3,356
  3,518
  3,688
  3,867
Total equity, $m
  1,013
  650
  665
  682
  702
  723
  746
  772
  799
  829
  861
  895
  931
  970
  1,011
  1,054
  1,100
  1,149
  1,201
  1,256
  1,313
  1,374
  1,438
  1,506
  1,577
  1,653
  1,732
  1,815
  1,902
  1,995
  2,091
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,214
  1,852
  1,895
  1,944
  1,999
  2,060
  2,126
  2,199
  2,277
  2,361
  2,452
  2,549
  2,652
  2,763
  2,880
  3,003
  3,135
  3,274
  3,422
  3,578
  3,741
  3,915
  4,098
  4,291
  4,494
  4,709
  4,934
  5,171
  5,420
  5,683
  5,958
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.621
  0.970
  0.990
  1.010
  1.030
  1.060
  1.080
  1.110
  1.130
  1.160
  1.180
  1.210
  1.230
  1.260
  1.280
  1.310
  1.330
  1.350
  1.370
  1.390
  1.410
  1.430
  1.450
  1.470
  1.490
  1.500
  1.520
  1.530
  1.550
  1.560
  1.580
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  136
  131
  134
  138
  143
  150
  158
  168
  178
  190
  204
  244
  260
  278
  297
  318
  341
  365
  391
  419
  449
  480
  514
  551
  589
  630
  674
  720
  770
  822
  877
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  56
  69
  70
  71
  72
  73
  74
  75
  77
  78
  80
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
Funds from operations, $m
  361
  200
  204
  209
  215
  223
  232
  243
  255
  268
  283
  290
  309
  328
  350
  373
  397
  424
  453
  484
  516
  551
  589
  628
  671
  716
  763
  814
  868
  925
  985
Change in working capital, $m
  53
  9
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  71
Cash from operations, $m
  308
  192
  193
  196
  201
  207
  215
  224
  235
  247
  260
  265
  282
  300
  319
  340
  363
  388
  415
  443
  474
  506
  541
  578
  618
  660
  705
  753
  803
  857
  914
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -33
  -34
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
New CAPEX, $m
  -56
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -78
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -81
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -165
  -173
  -181
Free cash flow, $m
  227
  148
  147
  148
  150
  154
  159
  165
  173
  181
  191
  193
  206
  220
  236
  253
  272
  292
  314
  337
  362
  389
  418
  449
  483
  518
  556
  596
  639
  684
  732
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  119
  23
  28
  32
  35
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  81
  85
  90
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
  154
  162
  170
  179
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -178
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -75
  23
  28
  32
  35
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  81
  85
  90
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
  154
  162
  170
  179
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  159
  172
  175
  180
  186
  193
  202
  212
  223
  236
  250
  256
  273
  292
  312
  334
  357
  382
  409
  438
  469
  502
  537
  575
  614
  657
  702
  750
  801
  854
  912
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  26
  -12
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  375
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  534
  160
  162
  166
  172
  179
  187
  196
  207
  218
  222
  237
  253
  271
  290
  311
  333
  357
  383
  411
  441
  473
  507
  543
  582
  623
  667
  713
  762
  815
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  512
  146
  141
  137
  133
  130
  126
  122
  119
  115
  106
  101
  96
  91
  85
  79
  73
  66
  59
  52
  46
  39
  33
  28
  23
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

EnerSys manufactures, markets, and distributes industrial batteries. The company operates in three segments: Americas, EMEA, and Asia. The company offers chargers, power equipment, outdoor cabinet enclosures, and battery accessories, as well as related after-market and customer-support services for industrial batteries. It also offers reserve power products that are used for backup power for the continuous operation of critical applications in telecommunications systems; uninterruptible power systems applications for computer and computer-controlled systems; and in other specialty power applications, including security systems, starting, lighting, and ignition applications, as well as for switchgear and electrical control systems used in electric utilities, energy storage, and energy pipelines; and commercial aircraft, satellites, military aircraft, submarines, ships, and tactical vehicles. The company’s reserve power products also include thermally managed cabinets and enclosures for electronic equipment and batteries. In addition, the company offers motive power products that are used to provide power for electric industrial forklifts used in manufacturing, warehousing, and other material handling applications, as well as mining equipment, diesel locomotive starting, and other rail equipment. It sells its products through a network of distributors, independent representatives, and internal sales forces. The company was formerly known as Yuasa, Inc. and changed its name to EnerSys in January 2001 to reflect its focus on the energy systems business. EnerSys was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Reading, Pennsylvania.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  EnerSys (ENS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.2
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 3.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -12.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 18
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 59.9%
Total Debt to Equity 62.1%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Return On Total Capital 8.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Return On Equity 13.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.8%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 26.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.8%
EBITDA Margin 10.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Operating Margin 9.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Net Profit Margin 5.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Effective Tax Rate 27.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.6%
Payout Ratio 22.8%

ENS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ENS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2316 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by EnerSys. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of EnerSys. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ENS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ENS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of EnerSys, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of EnerSys.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ENS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $459 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ENS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for EnerSys.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for EnerSys. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ENS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ENS are equal to 22.3%.

Life of production assets of 15.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in EnerSys operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ENS is equal to 20.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1013 million for EnerSys - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 43.324 million for EnerSys is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of EnerSys at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.6 billion.


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Stock chart of ENS Financial statements of ENS Annual reports of ENS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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