Intrinsic value of Ensign Group - ENSG

Previous Close

$23.99

  Intrinsic Value

$22.48

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-6%

Previous close

$23.99

 
Intrinsic value

$22.48

 
Up/down potential

-6%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of ENSG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  23.32
  9.00
  8.60
  8.24
  7.92
  7.62
  7.36
  7.13
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.39
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.82
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
Revenue, $m
  1,655
  1,804
  1,959
  2,121
  2,288
  2,463
  2,644
  2,833
  3,028
  3,232
  3,444
  3,664
  3,893
  4,132
  4,380
  4,639
  4,910
  5,191
  5,486
  5,793
  6,114
  6,449
  6,800
  7,167
  7,550
  7,952
  8,372
  8,813
  9,274
  9,757
  10,263
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,679
  1,823
  1,972
  2,128
  2,290
  2,458
  2,632
  2,814
  3,003
  3,199
  3,396
  3,609
  3,830
  4,060
  4,300
  4,551
  4,812
  5,085
  5,370
  5,667
  5,978
  6,303
  6,643
  6,999
  7,371
  7,761
  8,169
  8,596
  9,044
  9,513
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,563
  1,679
  1,823
  1,972
  2,128
  2,290
  2,458
  2,632
  2,814
  3,003
  3,199
  3,396
  3,609
  3,830
  4,060
  4,300
  4,551
  4,812
  5,085
  5,370
  5,667
  5,978
  6,303
  6,643
  6,999
  7,371
  7,761
  8,169
  8,596
  9,044
  9,513
Operating income, $m
  92
  125
  136
  148
  160
  173
  186
  200
  215
  229
  245
  268
  284
  302
  320
  339
  359
  379
  401
  423
  447
  471
  497
  524
  552
  581
  612
  644
  677
  713
  750
EBITDA, $m
  131
  170
  184
  199
  215
  232
  249
  266
  285
  304
  324
  345
  366
  389
  412
  436
  462
  488
  516
  545
  575
  607
  640
  674
  710
  748
  787
  829
  872
  918
  965
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  102
Earnings before tax, $m
  86
  115
  125
  135
  146
  156
  168
  179
  192
  204
  217
  238
  252
  267
  282
  298
  315
  333
  351
  370
  390
  411
  433
  455
  479
  504
  530
  558
  587
  617
  648
Tax expense, $m
  33
  31
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  129
  136
  143
  151
  158
  166
  175
Net income, $m
  50
  84
  91
  99
  106
  114
  122
  131
  140
  149
  159
  174
  184
  195
  206
  218
  230
  243
  256
  270
  285
  300
  316
  332
  350
  368
  387
  407
  428
  450
  473

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  69
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,001
  1,016
  1,103
  1,194
  1,289
  1,387
  1,489
  1,595
  1,705
  1,820
  1,939
  2,063
  2,192
  2,326
  2,466
  2,612
  2,764
  2,923
  3,089
  3,262
  3,442
  3,631
  3,829
  4,035
  4,251
  4,477
  4,714
  4,962
  5,222
  5,494
  5,779
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  932
  1,016
  1,103
  1,194
  1,289
  1,387
  1,489
  1,595
  1,705
  1,820
  1,939
  2,063
  2,192
  2,326
  2,466
  2,612
  2,764
  2,923
  3,089
  3,262
  3,442
  3,631
  3,829
  4,035
  4,251
  4,477
  4,714
  4,962
  5,222
  5,494
  5,779
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.775
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
  1.776
Average production assets, $m
  452
  492
  535
  579
  625
  672
  722
  773
  827
  882
  940
  1,000
  1,063
  1,128
  1,196
  1,267
  1,340
  1,417
  1,498
  1,581
  1,669
  1,761
  1,856
  1,957
  2,061
  2,171
  2,286
  2,406
  2,532
  2,664
  2,802
Working capital, $m
  122
  67
  72
  78
  85
  91
  98
  105
  112
  120
  127
  136
  144
  153
  162
  172
  182
  192
  203
  214
  226
  239
  252
  265
  279
  294
  310
  326
  343
  361
  380
Total debt, $m
  284
  324
  374
  427
  481
  538
  597
  658
  721
  787
  856
  927
  1,002
  1,079
  1,160
  1,244
  1,331
  1,423
  1,518
  1,618
  1,722
  1,831
  1,944
  2,063
  2,188
  2,318
  2,454
  2,597
  2,747
  2,903
  3,068
Total liabilities, $m
  545
  585
  635
  688
  742
  799
  858
  919
  982
  1,048
  1,117
  1,188
  1,263
  1,340
  1,421
  1,505
  1,592
  1,684
  1,779
  1,879
  1,983
  2,092
  2,205
  2,324
  2,449
  2,579
  2,715
  2,858
  3,008
  3,164
  3,329
Total equity, $m
  456
  431
  468
  506
  546
  588
  631
  676
  723
  772
  822
  875
  929
  986
  1,046
  1,108
  1,172
  1,239
  1,310
  1,383
  1,460
  1,540
  1,623
  1,711
  1,803
  1,898
  1,999
  2,104
  2,214
  2,329
  2,450
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,001
  1,016
  1,103
  1,194
  1,288
  1,387
  1,489
  1,595
  1,705
  1,820
  1,939
  2,063
  2,192
  2,326
  2,467
  2,613
  2,764
  2,923
  3,089
  3,262
  3,443
  3,632
  3,828
  4,035
  4,252
  4,477
  4,714
  4,962
  5,222
  5,493
  5,779
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.623
  0.750
  0.800
  0.840
  0.880
  0.910
  0.950
  0.970
  1.000
  1.020
  1.040
  1.060
  1.080
  1.090
  1.110
  1.120
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.415
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  50
  84
  91
  99
  106
  114
  122
  131
  140
  149
  159
  174
  184
  195
  206
  218
  230
  243
  256
  270
  285
  300
  316
  332
  350
  368
  387
  407
  428
  450
  473
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  39
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  79
  77
  82
  87
  92
  97
  103
  109
  115
  122
  128
  135
  143
  151
  159
  167
  176
  185
  195
  205
  216
Funds from operations, $m
  42
  129
  139
  150
  161
  173
  185
  197
  210
  224
  238
  250
  266
  281
  298
  315
  333
  352
  371
  392
  413
  435
  459
  483
  508
  535
  563
  592
  623
  655
  689
Change in working capital, $m
  -32
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
Cash from operations, $m
  74
  123
  133
  144
  155
  166
  178
  190
  203
  216
  230
  242
  257
  273
  289
  306
  323
  341
  360
  380
  401
  423
  446
  469
  494
  520
  548
  576
  606
  637
  670
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -205
New CAPEX, $m
  -187
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -211
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -199
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -243
  -256
  -269
  -282
  -296
  -311
  -327
  -343
Free cash flow, $m
  -137
  48
  53
  59
  64
  70
  77
  83
  90
  97
  104
  110
  118
  126
  134
  143
  152
  161
  171
  181
  192
  203
  214
  226
  239
  252
  266
  280
  295
  310
  327
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  184
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
  157
  164
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  161
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
  157
  164
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  24
  96
  103
  111
  119
  127
  135
  144
  153
  163
  173
  181
  192
  203
  215
  227
  240
  253
  267
  281
  296
  312
  328
  345
  363
  382
  402
  423
  444
  467
  491
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -29
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  61
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  121
  66
  72
  79
  85
  92
  99
  107
  114
  122
  129
  137
  146
  155
  165
  175
  185
  196
  208
  219
  232
  244
  258
  272
  286
  302
  318
  334
  352
  370
Discount rate, %
 
  4.90
  5.15
  5.40
  5.67
  5.96
  6.25
  6.57
  6.89
  7.24
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  115
  60
  62
  63
  64
  64
  64
  63
  61
  59
  55
  52
  49
  45
  41
  37
  33
  29
  25
  21
  18
  15
  12
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The Ensign Group, Inc., through its operating subsidiaries, provides healthcare services across the post-acute care continuum, as well as other ancillary businesses located in Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Nevada, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Washington and Wisconsin. The Company's subsidiaries provide skilled nursing, assisted living, home health and hospice, and other ancillary services. Its segments include transitional and skilled services segment, which includes the operation of skilled nursing facilities; assisted and independent living services segment, which includes the operation of assisted and independent living facilities; home health and hospice services segment, which includes its home health, home care and hospice businesses, and all other segment, which includes mobile diagnostics and other ancillary operations. As of July10, 2017, it operated in 226 healthcare facilities.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ensign Group (ENSG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.6
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -10.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 23.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 139.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 44.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 9
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 60.5%
Total Debt to Equity 62.3%
Interest Coverage 15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Return On Total Capital 7.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Return On Equity 11.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Asset Turnover 1.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 11.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
EBITDA Margin 7.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Operating Margin 5.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Net Profit Margin 3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Effective Tax Rate 38.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.4%
Payout Ratio 16%

ENSG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ENSG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1655 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ensign Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ensign Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ENSG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.9%, whose default value for ENSG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ensign Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ensign Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ENSG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ENSG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Ensign Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ensign Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ENSG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ENSG are equal to 27.3%.

Life of production assets of 13 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ensign Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ENSG is equal to 3.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $456 million for Ensign Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 50.825 million for Ensign Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ensign Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Ensign Group misses 3Q profit forecasts   [Nov-08-17 07:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ CareTrust REIT Provides an Update on its Texas Properties   [Aug-31-17 11:59PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Ensign Group misses 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-05-17 01:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ The Ensign Group Acquires Colorado Healthcare Communities   [Jul-10-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [May-01-17 04:55PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ensign Group meets 1Q profit forecasts   [06:08AM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Insider Buys Highlight for the Week of April 7   [Apr-09-17 03:36PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ The Ensign Group Acquires Iowa Skilled Nursing Facility   [Apr-06-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 3 Top Assisted Living Stocks to Buy in 2017   [Apr-01-17 03:24PM  Motley Fool]
▶ The Ensign Group Acquires Nevada Assisted Living Facility   [Mar-23-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ The Ensign Group Acquires Texas Healthcare Campus   [Feb-01-17 04:38PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ The Ensign Group Completes Sale of its Urgent Care Assets   [Dec-14-16 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of ENSG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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