Intrinsic value of Enservco - ENSV

Previous Close

$0.41

  Intrinsic Value

$7.21

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

  Value-price divergence*

+35%

Previous close

$0.41

 
Intrinsic value

$7.21

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+35%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ENSV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -35.90
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  25
  40
  62
  92
  134
  189
  260
  349
  458
  590
  745
  925
  1,131
  1,363
  1,622
  1,907
  2,219
  2,556
  2,918
  3,305
  3,716
  4,150
  4,607
  5,087
  5,589
  6,114
  6,661
  7,231
  7,824
  8,440
  9,081
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  8
  12
  18
  27
  38
  52
  70
  92
  118
  149
  185
  226
  273
  324
  381
  444
  511
  584
  661
  743
  830
  921
  1,017
  1,118
  1,223
  1,332
  1,446
  1,565
  1,688
  1,816
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
Total operating expenses, $m
  36
  41
  46
  52
  62
  74
  89
  108
  131
  158
  190
  227
  269
  317
  369
  427
  492
  560
  634
  712
  795
  884
  976
  1,073
  1,176
  1,282
  1,393
  1,508
  1,629
  1,753
  1,883
Operating income, $m
  -11
  -1
  16
  39
  72
  115
  171
  241
  328
  432
  555
  698
  862
  1,047
  1,253
  1,480
  1,728
  1,996
  2,285
  2,593
  2,920
  3,266
  3,631
  4,013
  4,414
  4,832
  5,268
  5,722
  6,195
  6,687
  7,198
EBITDA, $m
  -4
  5
  25
  53
  91
  142
  208
  292
  394
  517
  662
  831
  1,025
  1,243
  1,486
  1,754
  2,047
  2,364
  2,705
  3,069
  3,455
  3,864
  4,294
  4,746
  5,219
  5,712
  6,227
  6,764
  7,322
  7,902
  8,505
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  2
  4
  6
  9
  13
  18
  25
  34
  44
  57
  72
  90
  110
  132
  158
  185
  216
  249
  284
  322
  362
  404
  448
  495
  544
  595
  649
  704
  762
  822
Earnings before tax, $m
  -12
  -3
  12
  34
  63
  102
  153
  216
  294
  388
  498
  626
  772
  937
  1,120
  1,322
  1,542
  1,780
  2,036
  2,309
  2,599
  2,905
  3,227
  3,565
  3,918
  4,288
  4,673
  5,074
  5,491
  5,925
  6,376
Tax expense, $m
  -3
  0
  3
  9
  17
  28
  41
  58
  79
  105
  134
  169
  208
  253
  302
  357
  416
  481
  550
  623
  702
  784
  871
  962
  1,058
  1,158
  1,262
  1,370
  1,483
  1,600
  1,721
Net income, $m
  -9
  -3
  9
  25
  46
  75
  112
  158
  215
  283
  364
  457
  564
  684
  818
  965
  1,126
  1,300
  1,486
  1,685
  1,897
  2,120
  2,356
  2,602
  2,860
  3,130
  3,411
  3,704
  4,009
  4,325
  4,654

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  42
  66
  101
  152
  220
  310
  426
  572
  752
  967
  1,221
  1,517
  1,854
  2,235
  2,659
  3,127
  3,637
  4,190
  4,784
  5,418
  6,091
  6,803
  7,553
  8,339
  9,163
  10,023
  10,920
  11,854
  12,826
  13,836
  14,887
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  41
  66
  101
  152
  220
  310
  426
  572
  752
  967
  1,221
  1,517
  1,854
  2,235
  2,659
  3,127
  3,637
  4,190
  4,784
  5,418
  6,091
  6,803
  7,553
  8,339
  9,163
  10,023
  10,920
  11,854
  12,826
  13,836
  14,887
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.610
  0.606
  0.614
  0.605
  0.609
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.609
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
Average production assets, $m
  36
  58
  89
  133
  193
  272
  375
  503
  660
  849
  1,073
  1,332
  1,629
  1,963
  2,336
  2,747
  3,195
  3,680
  4,202
  4,759
  5,351
  5,976
  6,634
  7,325
  8,049
  8,804
  9,592
  10,413
  11,266
  12,154
  13,076
Working capital, $m
  3
  3
  5
  7
  11
  15
  21
  28
  37
  47
  60
  74
  90
  109
  130
  153
  178
  204
  233
  264
  297
  332
  369
  407
  447
  489
  533
  578
  626
  675
  726
Total debt, $m
  24
  41
  65
  99
  146
  208
  287
  387
  509
  656
  830
  1,032
  1,263
  1,523
  1,812
  2,132
  2,480
  2,858
  3,263
  3,696
  4,156
  4,643
  5,155
  5,692
  6,254
  6,842
  7,454
  8,092
  8,756
  9,446
  10,164
Total liabilities, $m
  28
  45
  69
  103
  150
  212
  291
  391
  513
  660
  834
  1,036
  1,267
  1,527
  1,816
  2,136
  2,484
  2,862
  3,267
  3,700
  4,160
  4,647
  5,159
  5,696
  6,258
  6,846
  7,458
  8,096
  8,760
  9,450
  10,168
Total equity, $m
  14
  21
  32
  48
  70
  98
  135
  181
  238
  307
  387
  481
  588
  709
  843
  991
  1,153
  1,328
  1,516
  1,717
  1,931
  2,157
  2,394
  2,644
  2,905
  3,177
  3,462
  3,758
  4,066
  4,386
  4,719
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  42
  66
  101
  151
  220
  310
  426
  572
  751
  967
  1,221
  1,517
  1,855
  2,236
  2,659
  3,127
  3,637
  4,190
  4,783
  5,417
  6,091
  6,804
  7,553
  8,340
  9,163
  10,023
  10,920
  11,854
  12,826
  13,836
  14,887
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.714
  1.960
  2.030
  2.070
  2.100
  2.110
  2.120
  2.130
  2.140
  2.140
  2.140
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -9
  -3
  9
  25
  46
  75
  112
  158
  215
  283
  364
  457
  564
  684
  818
  965
  1,126
  1,300
  1,486
  1,685
  1,897
  2,120
  2,356
  2,602
  2,860
  3,130
  3,411
  3,704
  4,009
  4,325
  4,654
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  6
  9
  13
  19
  27
  37
  50
  66
  85
  107
  133
  163
  196
  234
  275
  320
  368
  420
  476
  535
  598
  663
  733
  805
  880
  959
  1,041
  1,127
  1,215
  1,308
Funds from operations, $m
  1
  3
  18
  38
  66
  102
  149
  208
  281
  368
  471
  590
  727
  880
  1,051
  1,240
  1,445
  1,668
  1,906
  2,161
  2,432
  2,718
  3,019
  3,335
  3,665
  4,011
  4,370
  4,745
  5,135
  5,541
  5,962
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
Cash from operations, $m
  -2
  2
  16
  36
  62
  98
  143
  201
  272
  357
  458
  576
  710
  862
  1,031
  1,217
  1,420
  1,641
  1,877
  2,130
  2,399
  2,683
  2,982
  3,296
  3,625
  3,969
  4,327
  4,700
  5,088
  5,491
  5,911
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -6
  -9
  -13
  -19
  -27
  -37
  -50
  -66
  -85
  -107
  -133
  -163
  -196
  -234
  -275
  -320
  -368
  -420
  -476
  -535
  -598
  -663
  -733
  -805
  -880
  -959
  -1,041
  -1,127
  -1,215
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -22
  -31
  -44
  -60
  -79
  -102
  -128
  -157
  -189
  -223
  -259
  -297
  -334
  -373
  -411
  -448
  -485
  -522
  -557
  -592
  -625
  -658
  -691
  -723
  -756
  -788
  -820
  -854
  -888
  -923
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5
  -26
  -37
  -53
  -73
  -98
  -129
  -165
  -207
  -255
  -308
  -366
  -430
  -497
  -569
  -645
  -723
  -805
  -890
  -977
  -1,068
  -1,160
  -1,256
  -1,354
  -1,456
  -1,561
  -1,668
  -1,779
  -1,895
  -2,015
  -2,138
Free cash flow, $m
  -7
  -24
  -21
  -17
  -11
  -1
  14
  35
  64
  102
  150
  209
  280
  364
  462
  573
  697
  836
  988
  1,153
  1,332
  1,523
  1,726
  1,942
  2,169
  2,408
  2,658
  2,920
  3,193
  3,477
  3,773
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  2
  17
  24
  34
  47
  62
  79
  100
  122
  147
  174
  202
  231
  260
  290
  319
  349
  377
  406
  433
  460
  486
  512
  537
  562
  587
  613
  638
  664
  690
  717
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  11
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  7
  28
  26
  34
  47
  62
  79
  100
  122
  147
  174
  202
  231
  260
  290
  319
  349
  377
  406
  433
  460
  486
  512
  537
  562
  587
  613
  638
  664
  690
  717
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  4
  6
  17
  36
  61
  93
  135
  187
  249
  324
  411
  511
  624
  751
  892
  1,046
  1,213
  1,393
  1,586
  1,792
  2,009
  2,238
  2,479
  2,732
  2,996
  3,271
  3,558
  3,857
  4,167
  4,490
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  4
  -11
  -11
  -16
  -22
  -29
  -37
  -46
  -57
  -68
  -81
  -94
  -107
  -121
  -134
  -148
  -162
  -175
  -188
  -201
  -213
  -226
  -238
  -249
  -261
  -273
  -284
  -296
  -308
  -320
  -333
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -6
  -6
  1
  14
  32
  57
  89
  130
  181
  243
  317
  404
  504
  617
  744
  884
  1,038
  1,205
  1,385
  1,578
  1,783
  2,001
  2,230
  2,471
  2,723
  2,987
  3,262
  3,548
  3,847
  4,157
Discount rate, %
 
  10.90
  11.45
  12.02
  12.62
  13.25
  13.91
  14.61
  15.34
  16.10
  16.91
  17.75
  18.64
  19.57
  20.55
  21.58
  22.66
  23.79
  24.98
  26.23
  27.54
  28.92
  30.37
  31.89
  33.48
  35.15
  36.91
  38.76
  40.69
  42.73
  44.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -5
  -4
  1
  9
  17
  26
  34
  41
  47
  51
  53
  52
  49
  45
  40
  34
  28
  22
  17
  12
  9
  6
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  62.9
  58.2
  58.2
  58.2
  58.2
  58.2
  58.2
  58.2
  58.2
  58.2
  58.2
  58.2
  58.2
  58.2
  58.2
  58.2
  58.2
  58.2
  58.2
  58.2
  58.2
  58.2
  58.2
  58.2
  58.2
  58.2
  58.2
  58.2
  58.2
  58.2

Enservco Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides oil field services to the onshore oil and natural gas industry in the United States. It offers well enhancement services, such as hot oiling, acidizing, frac water heating, and pressure testing; fluid management services, including water transfer, water treatment, water/fluid hauling, frac tank rental, and disposal services; and well site construction and roustabout services, as well as other general oilfield services. The company owns and operates a fleet of approximately 340 specialized trucks, trailers, frac tanks, and other well-site related equipment. It operates in the Eastern United States region comprising the Southern region of the Marcellus Shale formation and the Utica Shale formation in eastern Ohio; Rocky Mountain Region consisting of western Colorado and southern Wyoming, central Wyoming, and western North Dakota and eastern Montana; and the Central United States region, including southwestern Kansas, Texas panhandle, northwestern Oklahoma, and the Eagle Ford Shale in south Texas. The company was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Enservco (ENSV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.3
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -10.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -35.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 171.4%
Total Debt to Equity 171.4%
Interest Coverage -5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -16.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.5%
Return On Total Capital -23.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.9%
Return On Equity -56.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -12%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.3%
EBITDA Margin -12%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Operating Margin -44%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -48%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.2%
Net Profit Margin -36%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.5%
Effective Tax Rate 25%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

ENSV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ENSV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $25 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Enservco. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Enservco. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ENSV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.9%, whose default value for ENSV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Enservco, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Enservco.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ENSV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 20%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $32 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ENSV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.7% for Enservco.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Enservco. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ENSV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ENSV are equal to 144%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Enservco operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ENSV is equal to 8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $14 million for Enservco - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 47.637 million for Enservco is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Enservco at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Investor Network: Enservco Corp to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-14-17 09:10AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Enservco Corp. : June 9, 2017   [Jun-09-17 01:27PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Enservco Corp. : May 30, 2017   [May-30-17 12:26PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ENSERVCO Reports First Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [May-11-17 07:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Enservco Corp. : April 20, 2017   [Apr-20-17 02:19PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Enservco Corp. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 04:25PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Enservco Corp. : January 19, 2017   [Jan-19-17 12:49PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ENSERVCO to Present at LD Micro Conference   [Nov-25  07:00AM  Marketwired]
Stock chart of ENSV Financial statements of ENSV
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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