Intrinsic value of Global Eagle Entertainment - ENT

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$3.10

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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$3.10

 
Intrinsic value

$210.99

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ENT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2015), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2015(a)
   2016
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.79
  33.60
  30.74
  28.17
  25.85
  23.76
  21.89
  20.20
  18.68
  17.31
  16.08
  14.97
  13.97
  13.08
  12.27
  11.54
  10.89
  10.30
  9.77
  9.29
  8.86
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.53
  7.28
  7.05
  6.85
  6.66
  6.50
  6.35
Revenue, $m
  426
  569
  744
  954
  1,200
  1,485
  1,811
  2,176
  2,583
  3,030
  3,517
  4,044
  4,609
  5,211
  5,851
  6,526
  7,237
  7,982
  8,762
  9,576
  10,425
  11,309
  12,228
  13,184
  14,177
  15,210
  16,282
  17,397
  18,557
  19,762
  21,017
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  147
  189
  239
  299
  367
  446
  534
  632
  739
  857
  974
  1,110
  1,256
  1,410
  1,572
  1,744
  1,923
  2,111
  2,307
  2,512
  2,725
  2,946
  3,176
  3,416
  3,665
  3,923
  4,192
  4,471
  4,761
  5,064
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  339
  348
  356
  365
  374
  384
  393
  403
  413
  424
  434
  445
  456
  468
  479
  491
  504
  516
  529
  542
  556
  570
  584
  599
  614
  629
  645
  661
  677
  694
Total operating expenses, $m
  435
  486
  537
  595
  664
  741
  830
  927
  1,035
  1,152
  1,281
  1,408
  1,555
  1,712
  1,878
  2,051
  2,235
  2,427
  2,627
  2,836
  3,054
  3,281
  3,516
  3,760
  4,015
  4,279
  4,552
  4,837
  5,132
  5,438
  5,758
Operating income, $m
  -9
  83
  208
  358
  536
  744
  981
  1,249
  1,548
  1,877
  2,237
  2,635
  3,053
  3,500
  3,974
  4,474
  5,002
  5,555
  6,135
  6,740
  7,371
  8,028
  8,712
  9,423
  10,163
  10,931
  11,730
  12,561
  13,425
  14,323
  15,259
EBITDA, $m
  28
  126
  260
  423
  616
  840
  1,096
  1,385
  1,708
  2,063
  2,451
  2,871
  3,322
  3,803
  4,315
  4,855
  5,424
  6,021
  6,646
  7,298
  7,979
  8,688
  9,425
  10,192
  10,989
  11,818
  12,680
  13,575
  14,507
  15,476
  16,484
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  2
  6
  10
  15
  20
  27
  35
  43
  53
  63
  74
  87
  100
  114
  129
  144
  161
  178
  196
  215
  235
  256
  277
  299
  322
  346
  371
  397
  424
  452
Earnings before tax, $m
  -1
  81
  202
  348
  522
  723
  954
  1,214
  1,505
  1,824
  2,174
  2,561
  2,967
  3,400
  3,860
  4,346
  4,857
  5,394
  5,956
  6,543
  7,156
  7,793
  8,456
  9,146
  9,864
  10,609
  11,384
  12,190
  13,028
  13,899
  14,806
Tax expense, $m
  1
  22
  55
  94
  141
  195
  258
  328
  406
  493
  587
  691
  801
  918
  1,042
  1,173
  1,312
  1,457
  1,608
  1,767
  1,932
  2,104
  2,283
  2,470
  2,663
  2,864
  3,074
  3,291
  3,517
  3,753
  3,998
Net income, $m
  -2
  59
  147
  254
  381
  528
  696
  887
  1,098
  1,332
  1,587
  1,869
  2,166
  2,482
  2,818
  3,172
  3,546
  3,938
  4,348
  4,777
  5,224
  5,689
  6,173
  6,677
  7,200
  7,745
  8,310
  8,898
  9,510
  10,146
  10,809

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  224
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  638
  553
  723
  927
  1,166
  1,444
  1,760
  2,115
  2,510
  2,944
  3,418
  3,930
  4,479
  5,065
  5,686
  6,342
  7,033
  7,757
  8,515
  9,306
  10,131
  10,990
  11,884
  12,812
  13,778
  14,781
  15,824
  16,907
  18,034
  19,205
  20,424
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  414
  553
  723
  927
  1,166
  1,444
  1,760
  2,115
  2,510
  2,944
  3,418
  3,930
  4,479
  5,065
  5,686
  6,342
  7,033
  7,757
  8,515
  9,306
  10,131
  10,990
  11,884
  12,812
  13,778
  14,781
  15,824
  16,907
  18,034
  19,205
  20,424
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.029
  1.029
  1.029
  1.029
  1.029
  1.028
  1.029
  1.029
  1.029
  1.029
  1.029
  1.029
  1.029
  1.029
  1.029
  1.029
  1.029
  1.029
  1.029
  1.029
  1.029
  1.029
  1.029
  1.029
  1.029
  1.029
  1.029
  1.029
  1.029
  1.029
  1.029
Average production assets, $m
  147
  196
  256
  328
  413
  511
  623
  749
  888
  1,042
  1,210
  1,391
  1,585
  1,793
  2,013
  2,245
  2,489
  2,746
  3,014
  3,294
  3,586
  3,890
  4,206
  4,535
  4,877
  5,232
  5,601
  5,985
  6,383
  6,798
  7,230
Working capital, $m
  193
  -40
  -52
  -67
  -84
  -104
  -127
  -152
  -181
  -212
  -246
  -283
  -323
  -365
  -410
  -457
  -507
  -559
  -613
  -670
  -730
  -792
  -856
  -923
  -992
  -1,065
  -1,140
  -1,218
  -1,299
  -1,383
  -1,471
Total debt, $m
  71
  165
  282
  421
  585
  774
  991
  1,234
  1,504
  1,801
  2,125
  2,475
  2,851
  3,251
  3,676
  4,125
  4,597
  5,093
  5,611
  6,153
  6,717
  7,304
  7,915
  8,551
  9,211
  9,897
  10,610
  11,351
  12,122
  12,923
  13,757
Total liabilities, $m
  284
  378
  495
  634
  798
  987
  1,204
  1,447
  1,717
  2,014
  2,338
  2,688
  3,064
  3,464
  3,889
  4,338
  4,810
  5,306
  5,824
  6,366
  6,930
  7,517
  8,128
  8,764
  9,424
  10,110
  10,823
  11,564
  12,335
  13,136
  13,970
Total equity, $m
  354
  175
  229
  293
  369
  456
  556
  668
  793
  930
  1,080
  1,242
  1,415
  1,600
  1,797
  2,004
  2,222
  2,451
  2,691
  2,941
  3,201
  3,473
  3,755
  4,049
  4,354
  4,671
  5,000
  5,343
  5,699
  6,069
  6,454
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  638
  553
  724
  927
  1,167
  1,443
  1,760
  2,115
  2,510
  2,944
  3,418
  3,930
  4,479
  5,064
  5,686
  6,342
  7,032
  7,757
  8,515
  9,307
  10,131
  10,990
  11,883
  12,813
  13,778
  14,781
  15,823
  16,907
  18,034
  19,205
  20,424
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.201
  0.950
  1.230
  1.440
  1.590
  1.700
  1.780
  1.850
  1.900
  1.940
  1.970
  1.990
  2.010
  2.030
  2.050
  2.060
  2.070
  2.080
  2.090
  2.090
  2.100
  2.100
  2.110
  2.110
  2.120
  2.120
  2.120
  2.120
  2.130
  2.130
  2.130
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.314
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -2
  59
  147
  254
  381
  528
  696
  887
  1,098
  1,332
  1,587
  1,869
  2,166
  2,482
  2,818
  3,172
  3,546
  3,938
  4,348
  4,777
  5,224
  5,689
  6,173
  6,677
  7,200
  7,745
  8,310
  8,898
  9,510
  10,146
  10,809
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  37
  43
  53
  65
  79
  96
  115
  136
  160
  186
  214
  236
  269
  304
  341
  381
  422
  465
  511
  558
  608
  659
  713
  769
  827
  887
  949
  1,014
  1,082
  1,152
  1,225
Funds from operations, $m
  17
  102
  200
  319
  460
  624
  811
  1,023
  1,258
  1,518
  1,801
  2,105
  2,434
  2,786
  3,159
  3,553
  3,968
  4,403
  4,859
  5,335
  5,831
  6,348
  6,886
  7,446
  8,027
  8,631
  9,260
  9,913
  10,592
  11,299
  12,034
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
Cash from operations, $m
  22
  122
  212
  334
  477
  644
  834
  1,048
  1,287
  1,549
  1,835
  2,142
  2,474
  2,828
  3,203
  3,600
  4,018
  4,456
  4,914
  5,392
  5,891
  6,410
  6,951
  7,512
  8,097
  8,704
  9,335
  9,991
  10,673
  11,383
  12,122
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -25
  -33
  -43
  -56
  -70
  -87
  -106
  -127
  -151
  -177
  -205
  -236
  -269
  -304
  -341
  -381
  -422
  -465
  -511
  -558
  -608
  -659
  -713
  -769
  -827
  -887
  -949
  -1,014
  -1,082
  -1,152
New CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -49
  -60
  -72
  -85
  -98
  -112
  -126
  -140
  -154
  -168
  -181
  -194
  -207
  -220
  -232
  -244
  -256
  -268
  -280
  -292
  -304
  -316
  -329
  -342
  -355
  -369
  -384
  -399
  -415
  -431
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -81
  -74
  -93
  -115
  -141
  -168
  -199
  -232
  -267
  -305
  -345
  -386
  -430
  -476
  -524
  -573
  -625
  -678
  -733
  -791
  -850
  -912
  -975
  -1,042
  -1,111
  -1,182
  -1,256
  -1,333
  -1,413
  -1,497
  -1,583
Free cash flow, $m
  -59
  48
  119
  218
  337
  476
  636
  817
  1,020
  1,245
  1,491
  1,756
  2,044
  2,352
  2,680
  3,027
  3,393
  3,777
  4,180
  4,601
  5,041
  5,498
  5,975
  6,471
  6,986
  7,522
  8,079
  8,658
  9,260
  9,886
  10,538
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  80
  95
  116
  139
  164
  190
  216
  243
  270
  297
  324
  350
  376
  401
  425
  449
  472
  495
  518
  541
  564
  587
  611
  635
  660
  686
  713
  741
  771
  801
  834
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  85
  95
  116
  139
  164
  190
  216
  243
  270
  297
  324
  350
  376
  401
  425
  449
  472
  495
  518
  541
  564
  587
  611
  635
  660
  686
  713
  741
  771
  801
  834
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  26
  143
  235
  358
  501
  665
  852
  1,060
  1,290
  1,542
  1,815
  2,106
  2,419
  2,752
  3,105
  3,476
  3,865
  4,273
  4,698
  5,142
  5,605
  6,086
  6,586
  7,106
  7,646
  8,208
  8,792
  9,399
  10,031
  10,688
  11,372
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -41
  -44
  -54
  -64
  -76
  -88
  -100
  -112
  -125
  -137
  -150
  -162
  -174
  -185
  -196
  -207
  -218
  -229
  -239
  -250
  -261
  -271
  -282
  -294
  -305
  -317
  -329
  -342
  -356
  -370
  -385
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  223
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  323
  182
  293
  425
  578
  752
  948
  1,165
  1,405
  1,665
  1,944
  2,246
  2,567
  2,908
  3,268
  3,647
  4,044
  4,459
  4,892
  5,344
  5,814
  6,304
  6,813
  7,341
  7,891
  8,463
  9,057
  9,675
  10,318
  10,987
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  309
  166
  255
  350
  448
  546
  640
  728
  807
  873
  923
  958
  976
  976
  960
  927
  880
  821
  753
  679
  601
  523
  446
  374
  307
  247
  194
  150
  113
  83
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Global Eagle Entertainment Inc. provides content, connectivity, and digital media solutions for travel industry worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Connectivity and Content. The Connectivity segment offers Wi-Fi Internet connectivity through Ku-band satellite transmissions. This segment offers specialized network equipment, media applications, and premium content services that allow airline passengers to access in-flight Internet, live television, on-demand content, texting services, shopping, and flight and destination information, as well as real-time data and operations solutions. The Connect segment selects, manages, and distributes wholly-owned and licensed media content, video and music programming, applications, digital advertising solutions, and video games to airline, maritime, and other away-from-home non-theatrical markets. Global Eagle Entertainment Inc. is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Global Eagle Entertainment (ENT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -121.9
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 243.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 133.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 60%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 224
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 19.8%
Total Debt to Equity 20.1%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.8%
Return On Total Capital -0.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -27.2%
Return On Equity -0.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.1%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 34.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.6%
EBITDA Margin 8.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.5%
Operating Margin -2.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.6%
Net Profit Margin -0.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.8%
Effective Tax Rate -100%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -41%
Payout Ratio 0%

ENT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ENT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $426 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Global Eagle Entertainment. The default revenue input number comes from 2015 income statement of Global Eagle Entertainment. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ENT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 33.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ENT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Global Eagle Entertainment, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Global Eagle Entertainment.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ENT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 26.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $331 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ENT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Global Eagle Entertainment.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Global Eagle Entertainment. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ENT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ENT are equal to 34.4%.

Life of production assets of 5.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Global Eagle Entertainment operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ENT is equal to -7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $354 million for Global Eagle Entertainment - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 81.479 million for Global Eagle Entertainment is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Global Eagle Entertainment at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.


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