Intrinsic value of Enova International - ENVA

Previous Close

$14.60

  Intrinsic Value

$42.65

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+192%

Previous close

$14.60

 
Intrinsic value

$42.65

 
Up/down potential

+192%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as ENVA.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ENVA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.24
  9.80
  9.32
  8.89
  8.50
  8.15
  7.83
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.67
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
Revenue, $m
  746
  819
  895
  975
  1,058
  1,144
  1,234
  1,327
  1,424
  1,524
  1,629
  1,738
  1,851
  1,968
  2,091
  2,218
  2,351
  2,489
  2,634
  2,785
  2,942
  3,106
  3,278
  3,457
  3,645
  3,841
  4,046
  4,261
  4,486
  4,721
  4,968
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  659
  718
  780
  844
  910
  979
  1,051
  1,126
  1,204
  1,285
  1,342
  1,429
  1,520
  1,614
  1,713
  1,815
  1,922
  2,034
  2,150
  2,272
  2,399
  2,531
  2,670
  2,814
  2,966
  3,124
  3,290
  3,464
  3,646
  3,837
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  624
  659
  718
  780
  844
  910
  979
  1,051
  1,126
  1,204
  1,285
  1,342
  1,429
  1,520
  1,614
  1,713
  1,815
  1,922
  2,034
  2,150
  2,272
  2,399
  2,531
  2,670
  2,814
  2,966
  3,124
  3,290
  3,464
  3,646
  3,837
Operating income, $m
  121
  160
  177
  195
  214
  234
  254
  276
  298
  321
  344
  396
  422
  448
  476
  505
  536
  567
  600
  634
  670
  708
  747
  787
  830
  875
  922
  971
  1,022
  1,076
  1,132
EBITDA, $m
  137
  190
  207
  226
  245
  265
  286
  307
  329
  353
  377
  402
  428
  456
  484
  513
  544
  576
  610
  644
  681
  719
  759
  800
  843
  889
  936
  986
  1,038
  1,093
  1,150
Interest expense (income), $m
  60
  65
  72
  80
  87
  96
  104
  113
  122
  132
  141
  152
  162
  174
  185
  197
  210
  223
  236
  250
  265
  281
  297
  314
  331
  350
  369
  389
  410
  432
  456
Earnings before tax, $m
  57
  95
  105
  116
  127
  138
  150
  163
  176
  189
  203
  244
  259
  275
  291
  308
  326
  344
  364
  384
  405
  427
  450
  474
  499
  525
  553
  581
  612
  643
  676
Tax expense, $m
  22
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  47
  51
  55
  66
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
Net income, $m
  35
  69
  77
  84
  93
  101
  110
  119
  128
  138
  148
  178
  189
  201
  213
  225
  238
  251
  266
  280
  296
  312
  328
  346
  364
  383
  403
  424
  446
  469
  494

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  40
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  978
  1,030
  1,126
  1,226
  1,331
  1,439
  1,552
  1,669
  1,791
  1,917
  2,049
  2,186
  2,328
  2,476
  2,630
  2,790
  2,957
  3,131
  3,313
  3,503
  3,700
  3,907
  4,123
  4,349
  4,584
  4,831
  5,089
  5,360
  5,643
  5,939
  6,249
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  938
  1,030
  1,126
  1,226
  1,331
  1,439
  1,552
  1,669
  1,791
  1,917
  2,049
  2,186
  2,328
  2,476
  2,630
  2,790
  2,957
  3,131
  3,313
  3,503
  3,700
  3,907
  4,123
  4,349
  4,584
  4,831
  5,089
  5,360
  5,643
  5,939
  6,249
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
  0.795
Average production assets, $m
  55
  60
  65
  71
  77
  84
  90
  97
  104
  111
  119
  127
  135
  144
  153
  162
  172
  182
  192
  203
  215
  227
  239
  252
  266
  280
  295
  311
  327
  345
  363
Working capital, $m
  575
  410
  448
  488
  529
  572
  617
  663
  712
  762
  814
  869
  925
  984
  1,045
  1,109
  1,176
  1,245
  1,317
  1,392
  1,471
  1,553
  1,639
  1,729
  1,822
  1,920
  2,023
  2,130
  2,243
  2,361
  2,484
Total debt, $m
  653
  722
  797
  875
  956
  1,041
  1,129
  1,221
  1,316
  1,414
  1,517
  1,624
  1,735
  1,851
  1,971
  2,096
  2,227
  2,363
  2,505
  2,653
  2,807
  2,968
  3,137
  3,313
  3,497
  3,690
  3,892
  4,103
  4,324
  4,555
  4,798
Total liabilities, $m
  736
  805
  880
  958
  1,039
  1,124
  1,212
  1,304
  1,399
  1,497
  1,600
  1,707
  1,818
  1,934
  2,054
  2,179
  2,310
  2,446
  2,588
  2,736
  2,890
  3,051
  3,220
  3,396
  3,580
  3,773
  3,975
  4,186
  4,407
  4,638
  4,881
Total equity, $m
  242
  226
  247
  269
  291
  315
  340
  366
  392
  420
  449
  479
  510
  542
  576
  611
  648
  686
  726
  767
  810
  856
  903
  952
  1,004
  1,058
  1,115
  1,174
  1,236
  1,301
  1,369
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  978
  1,031
  1,127
  1,227
  1,330
  1,439
  1,552
  1,670
  1,791
  1,917
  2,049
  2,186
  2,328
  2,476
  2,630
  2,790
  2,958
  3,132
  3,314
  3,503
  3,700
  3,907
  4,123
  4,348
  4,584
  4,831
  5,090
  5,360
  5,643
  5,939
  6,250
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.698
  3.200
  3.230
  3.260
  3.280
  3.300
  3.320
  3.340
  3.350
  3.370
  3.380
  3.390
  3.400
  3.410
  3.420
  3.430
  3.440
  3.450
  3.450
  3.460
  3.460
  3.470
  3.470
  3.480
  3.480
  3.490
  3.490
  3.500
  3.500
  3.500
  3.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  35
  69
  77
  84
  93
  101
  110
  119
  128
  138
  148
  178
  189
  201
  213
  225
  238
  251
  266
  280
  296
  312
  328
  346
  364
  383
  403
  424
  446
  469
  494
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  16
  30
  30
  30
  31
  31
  31
  32
  32
  32
  33
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
Funds from operations, $m
  392
  99
  107
  115
  123
  132
  141
  150
  160
  170
  181
  184
  196
  208
  220
  233
  246
  260
  275
  290
  306
  323
  340
  358
  377
  397
  418
  440
  463
  487
  512
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  118
  123
Cash from operations, $m
  393
  62
  69
  75
  82
  89
  96
  104
  112
  120
  128
  130
  139
  149
  159
  169
  180
  191
  203
  215
  228
  241
  254
  269
  284
  299
  315
  332
  350
  369
  388
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
New CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -485
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -31
  -33
  -35
Free cash flow, $m
  -92
  54
  60
  66
  72
  79
  85
  92
  100
  107
  115
  116
  125
  134
  143
  152
  162
  173
  183
  194
  206
  218
  231
  244
  257
  272
  287
  302
  318
  335
  353
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  107
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  161
  169
  176
  184
  193
  202
  211
  221
  231
  242
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  100
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  161
  169
  176
  184
  193
  202
  211
  221
  231
  242
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -2
  126
  135
  144
  153
  163
  173
  184
  195
  206
  218
  223
  236
  249
  263
  278
  293
  309
  325
  342
  361
  379
  399
  420
  442
  464
  488
  513
  539
  567
  596
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -36
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  37
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  142
  114
  122
  131
  140
  149
  158
  168
  178
  189
  193
  205
  217
  229
  243
  256
  270
  285
  301
  317
  334
  352
  371
  390
  410
  432
  454
  477
  502
  528
Discount rate, %
 
  6.10
  6.41
  6.73
  7.06
  7.41
  7.79
  8.17
  8.58
  9.01
  9.46
  9.94
  10.43
  10.95
  11.50
  12.08
  12.68
  13.32
  13.98
  14.68
  15.41
  16.19
  16.99
  17.84
  18.74
  19.67
  20.66
  21.69
  22.77
  23.91
  25.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  134
  101
  100
  99
  98
  95
  91
  87
  82
  77
  68
  62
  56
  50
  44
  38
  32
  27
  22
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Enova International, Inc. is a technology and analytics company. The Company provides online financial services. As of December 31, 2016, the Company offered or arranged loans to consumers in 33 states in the United States and in the United Kingdom and Brazil. As of December 31, 2016, it also offered financing to small businesses in all 50 states and Washington D.C. in the United States. The Company provides online financial services to non-prime credit consumers and small businesses in the United States, United Kingdom, and Brazil. Its customers include small businesses, which have bank accounts but use alternative financial services because of their limited access to more traditional credit from banks, credit card companies and other lenders. The Company's financing products include short-term loans, line of credit accounts, installment loans and receivables purchase agreements (RPAs).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Enova International (ENVA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 13.9
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 1.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 1.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 14.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -56.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 13
Current Ratio 0.4
LT Debt to Equity 268.6%
Total Debt to Equity 269.8%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Return On Total Capital 4.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Return On Equity 15.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.2%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 56%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.3%
EBITDA Margin 17.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.1%
Operating Margin 16.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.5%
Net Profit Margin 4.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Effective Tax Rate 38.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

ENVA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ENVA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $746 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Enova International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Enova International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ENVA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.1%, whose default value for ENVA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Enova International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Enova International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ENVA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ENVA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 10% for Enova International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Enova International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ENVA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ENVA are equal to 7.3%.

Life of production assets of 20.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Enova International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ENVA is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $242 million for Enova International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.683 million for Enova International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Enova International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Enova International reports 3Q loss   [Oct-26-17 07:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ Enova To Announce Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Oct-12-17 04:16PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Enova Announces $25 Million Share Repurchase Program   [Sep-15-17 04:16PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Enova International posts 2Q profit   [Jul-28-17 12:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ Enova Reports Second Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [Jul-27-17 04:16PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Enova To Announce Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Jul-13-17 04:16PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Enova To Present at June Conferences   [May-24-17 04:16PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Enova International posts 1Q profit   [Apr-27-17 05:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ Enova To Announce First Quarter 2017 Results   [Apr-13-17 06:49PM  PR Newswire]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for February 6th   [Feb-06-17 10:12AM  Zacks]
▶ Enova International beats Street 4Q forecasts   [06:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Hayashi's Take: Payday Lenders' Changing Fortunes Send Stocks Soaring   [Nov-23-16 07:26AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Enova To Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Nov-16-16 04:16PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Enova Announces Third Quarter 2016 Results   [Oct-27-16 04:16PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Enova To Announce Third Quarter 2016 Results   [Oct-13-16 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] A Payday-Loan Rival Gains Ground   [Aug-08-16 12:09AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] A Payday-Loan Rival Gains Ground   [Aug-07-16 05:02PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Financial statements of ENVA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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