Intrinsic value of EPAM Systems - EPAM

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$82.81

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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$82.81

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EPAM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  26.91
  20.80
  19.22
  17.80
  16.52
  15.37
  14.33
  13.40
  12.56
  11.80
  11.12
  10.51
  9.96
  9.46
  9.02
  8.61
  8.25
  7.93
  7.63
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
Revenue, $m
  1,160
  1,401
  1,671
  1,968
  2,293
  2,645
  3,024
  3,430
  3,860
  4,316
  4,796
  5,300
  5,828
  6,379
  6,954
  7,553
  8,177
  8,825
  9,499
  10,199
  10,926
  11,683
  12,469
  13,286
  14,136
  15,021
  15,943
  16,903
  17,903
  18,946
  20,035
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,236
  1,472
  1,732
  2,016
  2,325
  2,656
  3,010
  3,387
  3,786
  4,205
  4,635
  5,097
  5,579
  6,082
  6,606
  7,151
  7,718
  8,307
  8,920
  9,556
  10,218
  10,905
  11,620
  12,364
  13,138
  13,944
  14,783
  15,658
  16,571
  17,522
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,026
  1,236
  1,472
  1,732
  2,016
  2,325
  2,656
  3,010
  3,387
  3,786
  4,205
  4,635
  5,097
  5,579
  6,082
  6,606
  7,151
  7,718
  8,307
  8,920
  9,556
  10,218
  10,905
  11,620
  12,364
  13,138
  13,944
  14,783
  15,658
  16,571
  17,522
Operating income, $m
  134
  165
  199
  236
  277
  321
  368
  419
  473
  530
  590
  665
  731
  800
  872
  947
  1,025
  1,107
  1,191
  1,279
  1,370
  1,465
  1,564
  1,666
  1,773
  1,884
  1,999
  2,120
  2,245
  2,376
  2,512
EBITDA, $m
  157
  184
  220
  259
  301
  348
  397
  451
  507
  567
  630
  696
  766
  838
  914
  993
  1,075
  1,160
  1,248
  1,340
  1,436
  1,535
  1,639
  1,746
  1,858
  1,974
  2,095
  2,221
  2,353
  2,490
  2,633
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  44
  47
  50
  54
  58
  61
  66
  70
  74
  79
Earnings before tax, $m
  126
  164
  197
  233
  272
  315
  361
  410
  462
  518
  576
  648
  712
  779
  848
  921
  996
  1,075
  1,157
  1,242
  1,330
  1,421
  1,517
  1,616
  1,719
  1,826
  1,938
  2,054
  2,175
  2,302
  2,434
Tax expense, $m
  27
  44
  53
  63
  74
  85
  97
  111
  125
  140
  155
  175
  192
  210
  229
  249
  269
  290
  312
  335
  359
  384
  409
  436
  464
  493
  523
  555
  587
  621
  657
Net income, $m
  99
  120
  144
  170
  199
  230
  264
  299
  338
  378
  420
  473
  520
  568
  619
  672
  727
  785
  844
  906
  971
  1,038
  1,107
  1,179
  1,255
  1,333
  1,415
  1,499
  1,588
  1,680
  1,777

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  364
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  926
  681
  812
  957
  1,115
  1,286
  1,470
  1,667
  1,877
  2,098
  2,331
  2,576
  2,833
  3,101
  3,381
  3,672
  3,975
  4,290
  4,618
  4,958
  5,312
  5,679
  6,062
  6,459
  6,872
  7,303
  7,751
  8,217
  8,704
  9,211
  9,740
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  562
  681
  812
  957
  1,115
  1,286
  1,470
  1,667
  1,877
  2,098
  2,331
  2,576
  2,833
  3,101
  3,381
  3,672
  3,975
  4,290
  4,618
  4,958
  5,312
  5,679
  6,062
  6,459
  6,872
  7,303
  7,751
  8,217
  8,704
  9,211
  9,740
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.064
  2.057
  2.058
  2.056
  2.057
  2.057
  2.057
  2.058
  2.056
  2.057
  2.057
  2.057
  2.057
  2.057
  2.057
  2.057
  2.057
  2.057
  2.057
  2.057
  2.057
  2.057
  2.057
  2.057
  2.057
  2.057
  2.057
  2.057
  2.057
  2.057
  2.057
Average production assets, $m
  116
  95
  114
  134
  156
  180
  206
  233
  262
  293
  326
  360
  396
  434
  473
  514
  556
  600
  646
  694
  743
  794
  848
  903
  961
  1,021
  1,084
  1,149
  1,217
  1,288
  1,362
Working capital, $m
  531
  205
  244
  287
  335
  386
  442
  501
  564
  630
  700
  774
  851
  931
  1,015
  1,103
  1,194
  1,288
  1,387
  1,489
  1,595
  1,706
  1,820
  1,940
  2,064
  2,193
  2,328
  2,468
  2,614
  2,766
  2,925
Total debt, $m
  25
  55
  89
  126
  166
  211
  258
  308
  362
  419
  479
  542
  608
  677
  749
  824
  902
  983
  1,067
  1,154
  1,245
  1,340
  1,438
  1,540
  1,646
  1,757
  1,872
  1,992
  2,117
  2,247
  2,383
Total liabilities, $m
  144
  175
  209
  246
  286
  331
  378
  428
  482
  539
  599
  662
  728
  797
  869
  944
  1,022
  1,103
  1,187
  1,274
  1,365
  1,460
  1,558
  1,660
  1,766
  1,877
  1,992
  2,112
  2,237
  2,367
  2,503
Total equity, $m
  781
  506
  603
  711
  828
  956
  1,092
  1,239
  1,394
  1,559
  1,732
  1,914
  2,105
  2,304
  2,512
  2,728
  2,953
  3,188
  3,431
  3,684
  3,947
  4,220
  4,504
  4,799
  5,106
  5,426
  5,759
  6,105
  6,467
  6,844
  7,237
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  925
  681
  812
  957
  1,114
  1,287
  1,470
  1,667
  1,876
  2,098
  2,331
  2,576
  2,833
  3,101
  3,381
  3,672
  3,975
  4,291
  4,618
  4,958
  5,312
  5,680
  6,062
  6,459
  6,872
  7,303
  7,751
  8,217
  8,704
  9,211
  9,740
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.032
  0.110
  0.150
  0.180
  0.200
  0.220
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.280
  0.290
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.742
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743
  0.743

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  99
  120
  144
  170
  199
  230
  264
  299
  338
  378
  420
  473
  520
  568
  619
  672
  727
  785
  844
  906
  971
  1,038
  1,107
  1,179
  1,255
  1,333
  1,415
  1,499
  1,588
  1,680
  1,777
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  23
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  32
  35
  38
  42
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
Funds from operations, $m
  159
  139
  165
  193
  223
  257
  293
  331
  372
  415
  460
  505
  555
  607
  661
  718
  777
  838
  902
  968
  1,036
  1,108
  1,182
  1,259
  1,340
  1,423
  1,510
  1,601
  1,696
  1,794
  1,897
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  35
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
  135
  140
  146
  152
  159
Cash from operations, $m
  165
  76
  125
  149
  176
  205
  237
  272
  309
  348
  390
  431
  478
  526
  577
  630
  686
  743
  803
  865
  930
  998
  1,067
  1,140
  1,216
  1,294
  1,376
  1,461
  1,550
  1,642
  1,738
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -114
New CAPEX, $m
  -29
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -9
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -59
  -63
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -83
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -117
  -123
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -188
Free cash flow, $m
  156
  53
  98
  119
  142
  168
  196
  226
  259
  294
  331
  368
  410
  454
  500
  548
  598
  650
  704
  761
  819
  880
  944
  1,009
  1,078
  1,149
  1,223
  1,300
  1,380
  1,463
  1,550
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -10
  30
  34
  37
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  18
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  10
  30
  34
  37
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  163
  83
  132
  156
  183
  212
  243
  277
  313
  351
  391
  431
  476
  523
  572
  623
  676
  731
  788
  848
  910
  975
  1,042
  1,112
  1,184
  1,260
  1,338
  1,420
  1,505
  1,594
  1,686
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -168
  -87
  -97
  -107
  -117
  -127
  -137
  -146
  -156
  -165
  -173
  -182
  -191
  -199
  -208
  -216
  -225
  -234
  -243
  -253
  -263
  -273
  -284
  -295
  -307
  -320
  -333
  -347
  -361
  -377
  -393
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  362
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  357
  35
  49
  65
  84
  106
  130
  157
  186
  218
  249
  285
  323
  364
  406
  451
  497
  545
  595
  647
  702
  758
  816
  877
  940
  1,005
  1,073
  1,144
  1,217
  1,293
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  343
  32
  42
  54
  65
  77
  88
  98
  107
  114
  118
  122
  123
  122
  119
  114
  108
  100
  92
  82
  73
  63
  54
  45
  37
  29
  23
  18
  13
  10
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

EPAM Systems, Inc. provides software engineering solutions and technology consulting services worldwide. The company offers software product development services, including product research, customer experience design and prototyping, program management, component design and integration, lifecycle software testing, product deployment and end-user customization, performance tuning, product support and maintenance, and managed services, as well as porting and cross-platform migration. It also provides custom application development services, such as business and technical requirement analysis, user experience design, solution architecture creation and validation, development, quality assurance and testing, legacy applications re-engineering/refactoring, porting, and cross-platform migration and documentation. In addition, the company offers software application testing services, including test automation tools and frameworks; testing for enterprise IT, such as test management, automation, functional and non-functional testing, and defect management; and consulting services. Further, it provides enterprise application platform services comprising requirement analysis and platform selection, customization, cross-platform migration, implementation, integration, and support and maintenance. Additionally, the company offers application maintenance and support services, such as incident management, fault investigation diagnosis, work-around provision, bug fixes, release management, enhancements, and third-party maintenance; and infrastructure management services, including application, database, network, server, storage, and systems operations management, as well as incident notification and resolutions. It serves independent software vendors and technology companies in financial service, travel and consumer, software and hi-tech, media and entertainment, life sciences, and healthcare industries. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newtown, Pennsylvania.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  EPAM Systems (EPAM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 42.7
Price to Sales 3.6
Price to Book 5.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 25.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 31.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 26.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 61.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 3.2%
Total Debt to Equity 3.2%
Interest Coverage 127
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Return On Total Capital 13.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Return On Equity 14.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.5%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 36.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.3%
EBITDA Margin 12.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.5%
Operating Margin 11.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Net Profit Margin 8.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Effective Tax Rate 21.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

EPAM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EPAM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1160 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by EPAM Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of EPAM Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EPAM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EPAM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of EPAM Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of EPAM Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EPAM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EPAM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for EPAM Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for EPAM Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EPAM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EPAM are equal to 6.8%.

Life of production assets of 11.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in EPAM Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EPAM is equal to 14.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $781 million for EPAM Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 51.149 million for EPAM Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of EPAM Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.2 billion.


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Stock chart of EPAM Financial statements of EPAM Annual reports of EPAM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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