Intrinsic value of Edgewell Personal Care - EPC

Previous Close

$58.25

  Intrinsic Value

$51.63

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-11%

Previous close

$58.25

 
Intrinsic value

$51.63

 
Up/down potential

-11%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of EPC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -2.71
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,298
  2,344
  2,398
  2,459
  2,529
  2,605
  2,689
  2,781
  2,880
  2,987
  3,102
  3,224
  3,355
  3,494
  3,643
  3,800
  3,966
  4,142
  4,329
  4,526
  4,734
  4,953
  5,185
  5,428
  5,685
  5,956
  6,241
  6,541
  6,857
  7,189
  7,538
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,123
  2,169
  2,221
  2,279
  2,344
  2,415
  2,492
  2,576
  2,666
  2,763
  2,722
  2,832
  2,950
  3,075
  3,207
  3,348
  3,497
  3,654
  3,820
  3,996
  4,181
  4,376
  4,582
  4,799
  5,027
  5,268
  5,521
  5,788
  6,068
  6,363
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,351
  2,123
  2,169
  2,221
  2,279
  2,344
  2,415
  2,492
  2,576
  2,666
  2,763
  2,722
  2,832
  2,950
  3,075
  3,207
  3,348
  3,497
  3,654
  3,820
  3,996
  4,181
  4,376
  4,582
  4,799
  5,027
  5,268
  5,521
  5,788
  6,068
  6,363
Operating income, $m
  -53
  221
  229
  239
  250
  262
  275
  289
  304
  321
  339
  503
  523
  545
  568
  592
  618
  646
  675
  706
  738
  772
  808
  846
  887
  929
  973
  1,020
  1,069
  1,121
  1,175
EBITDA, $m
  41
  423
  433
  444
  457
  470
  486
  502
  520
  539
  560
  582
  606
  631
  658
  686
  716
  748
  782
  817
  855
  894
  936
  980
  1,027
  1,075
  1,127
  1,181
  1,238
  1,298
  1,361
Interest expense (income), $m
  66
  60
  62
  64
  66
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  122
  128
  136
  143
  152
  160
  169
  179
  189
  199
  211
  222
  235
  248
  261
Earnings before tax, $m
  -53
  161
  168
  175
  183
  192
  202
  213
  225
  238
  251
  410
  425
  442
  459
  477
  497
  517
  539
  562
  587
  612
  639
  668
  698
  729
  763
  798
  834
  873
  914
Tax expense, $m
  -59
  44
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  111
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  158
  165
  173
  180
  188
  197
  206
  215
  225
  236
  247
Net income, $m
  6
  118
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
  156
  164
  173
  183
  299
  310
  322
  335
  348
  363
  378
  394
  410
  428
  447
  467
  487
  509
  532
  557
  582
  609
  637
  667

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  503
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,189
  3,762
  3,849
  3,948
  4,059
  4,182
  4,317
  4,464
  4,623
  4,795
  4,979
  5,175
  5,385
  5,609
  5,847
  6,099
  6,366
  6,649
  6,948
  7,265
  7,598
  7,951
  8,322
  8,713
  9,126
  9,560
  10,018
  10,499
  11,006
  11,539
  12,100
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,686
  3,762
  3,849
  3,948
  4,059
  4,182
  4,317
  4,464
  4,623
  4,795
  4,979
  5,175
  5,385
  5,609
  5,847
  6,099
  6,366
  6,649
  6,948
  7,265
  7,598
  7,951
  8,322
  8,713
  9,126
  9,560
  10,018
  10,499
  11,006
  11,539
  12,100
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
Average production assets, $m
  1,699
  1,732
  1,772
  1,818
  1,869
  1,925
  1,988
  2,055
  2,128
  2,207
  2,292
  2,383
  2,479
  2,582
  2,692
  2,808
  2,931
  3,061
  3,199
  3,345
  3,498
  3,660
  3,831
  4,012
  4,202
  4,402
  4,612
  4,834
  5,067
  5,313
  5,571
Working capital, $m
  662
  180
  185
  189
  195
  201
  207
  214
  222
  230
  239
  248
  258
  269
  280
  293
  305
  319
  333
  348
  364
  381
  399
  418
  438
  459
  481
  504
  528
  554
  580
Total debt, $m
  1,545
  1,577
  1,634
  1,700
  1,773
  1,854
  1,943
  2,040
  2,145
  2,258
  2,379
  2,509
  2,647
  2,794
  2,951
  3,117
  3,293
  3,480
  3,677
  3,885
  4,105
  4,337
  4,582
  4,840
  5,112
  5,398
  5,700
  6,017
  6,351
  6,702
  7,072
Total liabilities, $m
  2,447
  2,479
  2,536
  2,602
  2,675
  2,756
  2,845
  2,942
  3,047
  3,160
  3,281
  3,411
  3,549
  3,696
  3,853
  4,019
  4,195
  4,382
  4,579
  4,787
  5,007
  5,239
  5,484
  5,742
  6,014
  6,300
  6,602
  6,919
  7,253
  7,604
  7,974
Total equity, $m
  1,742
  1,283
  1,312
  1,346
  1,384
  1,426
  1,472
  1,522
  1,576
  1,635
  1,698
  1,765
  1,836
  1,913
  1,994
  2,080
  2,171
  2,267
  2,369
  2,477
  2,591
  2,711
  2,838
  2,971
  3,112
  3,260
  3,416
  3,580
  3,753
  3,935
  4,126
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,189
  3,762
  3,848
  3,948
  4,059
  4,182
  4,317
  4,464
  4,623
  4,795
  4,979
  5,176
  5,385
  5,609
  5,847
  6,099
  6,366
  6,649
  6,948
  7,264
  7,598
  7,950
  8,322
  8,713
  9,126
  9,560
  10,018
  10,499
  11,006
  11,539
  12,100
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.887
  1.230
  1.250
  1.260
  1.280
  1.300
  1.320
  1.340
  1.360
  1.380
  1.400
  1.420
  1.440
  1.460
  1.480
  1.500
  1.520
  1.530
  1.550
  1.570
  1.580
  1.600
  1.610
  1.630
  1.640
  1.660
  1.670
  1.680
  1.690
  1.700
  1.710
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  6
  118
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
  156
  164
  173
  183
  299
  310
  322
  335
  348
  363
  378
  394
  410
  428
  447
  467
  487
  509
  532
  557
  582
  609
  637
  667
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  94
  202
  204
  205
  207
  209
  211
  213
  216
  218
  221
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  186
Funds from operations, $m
  275
  320
  326
  333
  341
  349
  359
  369
  380
  392
  404
  379
  393
  408
  425
  442
  460
  480
  500
  522
  545
  569
  594
  621
  649
  679
  710
  743
  778
  815
  853
Change in working capital, $m
  -21
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
Cash from operations, $m
  296
  317
  322
  328
  335
  343
  352
  362
  372
  383
  395
  369
  383
  398
  413
  430
  448
  466
  486
  507
  529
  552
  577
  602
  630
  658
  689
  720
  754
  789
  826
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -57
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
New CAPEX, $m
  -69
  -34
  -40
  -46
  -51
  -57
  -62
  -68
  -73
  -79
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -116
  -123
  -130
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -190
  -200
  -211
  -222
  -233
  -245
  -258
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -85
  -91
  -98
  -105
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -134
  -142
  -150
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -186
  -195
  -206
  -217
  -228
  -240
  -253
  -265
  -279
  -293
  -308
  -324
  -340
  -358
  -376
  -394
  -414
  -435
Free cash flow, $m
  211
  226
  224
  224
  224
  224
  226
  228
  230
  233
  237
  202
  207
  212
  218
  224
  231
  238
  246
  255
  264
  273
  284
  294
  306
  318
  331
  345
  359
  375
  391
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -295
  51
  57
  65
  73
  81
  89
  97
  105
  113
  121
  130
  138
  147
  157
  166
  176
  186
  197
  208
  220
  232
  245
  258
  272
  286
  301
  317
  334
  351
  369
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -165
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -461
  51
  57
  65
  73
  81
  89
  97
  105
  113
  121
  130
  138
  147
  157
  166
  176
  186
  197
  208
  220
  232
  245
  258
  272
  286
  301
  317
  334
  351
  369
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -236
  278
  281
  289
  297
  306
  315
  325
  335
  346
  358
  332
  345
  360
  375
  390
  407
  425
  443
  463
  484
  505
  528
  552
  578
  605
  633
  662
  693
  726
  760
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  87
  -25
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -191
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  484
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  737
  252
  255
  259
  264
  269
  275
  281
  288
  296
  265
  274
  283
  293
  304
  316
  328
  341
  355
  370
  385
  402
  419
  437
  456
  477
  498
  520
  544
  569
Discount rate, %
 
  6.00
  6.30
  6.62
  6.95
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.78
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.10
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.72
  17.55
  18.43
  19.35
  20.32
  21.33
  22.40
  23.52
  24.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  695
  223
  211
  198
  185
  173
  160
  147
  134
  121
  95
  85
  75
  65
  57
  48
  41
  34
  27
  22
  17
  13
  10
  8
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Edgewell Personal Care Company is a manufacturer and marketer of personal care products in the wet shave, sun and skin care, feminine care and infant care categories. As of September 30, 2016, the Company had a portfolio of over 25 brands. It manages its business in four segments: Wet Shave, Sun and Skin Care, Feminine Care and All Other. Its Wet shave products are sold under the Schick, Wilkinson Sword, Edge, Skintimate, Shave Guard and Personna brand names. Its Sun and Skin Care products are sold under the Banana Boat, Hawaiian Tropic, Wet Ones and Playtex brand names and offers Wet Ones, portable hand wipes category, and Playtex household gloves, the branded household glove in the United States. Its Feminine Care segment markets its products under the Playtex, Stayfree, Carefree and o.b. brands and markets pads and liners. Its All Other segment includes infant care, pet care and miscellaneous other products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Edgewell Personal Care (EPC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 543.9
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -1.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 26
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 87.6%
Total Debt to Equity 88.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Return On Total Capital 0.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Return On Equity 0.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.8%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 49.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.1%
EBITDA Margin 4.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Operating Margin -2.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4%
Pre-Tax Margin -2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4%
Net Profit Margin 0.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.2%
Effective Tax Rate 111.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

EPC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EPC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2298 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Edgewell Personal Care. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Edgewell Personal Care. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EPC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6%, whose default value for EPC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Edgewell Personal Care, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Edgewell Personal Care.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EPC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EPC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.9% for Edgewell Personal Care.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Edgewell Personal Care. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EPC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EPC are equal to 73.9%.

Life of production assets of 33.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Edgewell Personal Care operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EPC is equal to 7.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1742 million for Edgewell Personal Care - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 55.397 million for Edgewell Personal Care is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Edgewell Personal Care at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.

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Financial statements of EPC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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