Intrinsic value of Evolution Petroleum - EPM

Previous Close

$7.15

  Intrinsic Value

$0.58

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-92%

  Value-price divergence*

-103%

Previous close

$7.15

 
Intrinsic value

$0.58

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-103%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EPM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -7.14
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  26
  42
  64
  96
  139
  197
  271
  363
  477
  613
  775
  962
  1,176
  1,418
  1,687
  1,984
  2,308
  2,658
  3,035
  3,437
  3,864
  4,316
  4,791
  5,291
  5,813
  6,359
  6,928
  7,520
  8,137
  8,778
  9,444
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  29
  44
  67
  97
  136
  187
  251
  330
  425
  536
  666
  814
  981
  1,167
  1,373
  1,597
  1,839
  2,100
  2,378
  2,674
  2,987
  3,316
  3,661
  4,023
  4,400
  4,794
  5,204
  5,631
  6,074
  6,535
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  24
  29
  44
  67
  97
  136
  187
  251
  330
  425
  536
  666
  814
  981
  1,167
  1,373
  1,597
  1,839
  2,100
  2,378
  2,674
  2,987
  3,316
  3,661
  4,023
  4,400
  4,794
  5,204
  5,631
  6,074
  6,535
Operating income, $m
  3
  13
  20
  30
  43
  61
  83
  112
  147
  189
  239
  296
  362
  437
  520
  611
  711
  819
  935
  1,059
  1,190
  1,329
  1,476
  1,629
  1,790
  1,958
  2,134
  2,316
  2,506
  2,704
  2,909
EBITDA, $m
  8
  21
  32
  48
  70
  98
  135
  182
  239
  307
  388
  481
  589
  709
  844
  992
  1,154
  1,330
  1,518
  1,719
  1,933
  2,159
  2,397
  2,647
  2,908
  3,181
  3,466
  3,762
  4,071
  4,391
  4,725
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  10
  13
  17
  21
  26
  32
  39
  47
  55
  64
  74
  85
  96
  108
  121
  134
  149
  163
  179
  195
  211
  229
  247
Earnings before tax, $m
  34
  13
  19
  29
  41
  57
  78
  105
  137
  176
  222
  275
  336
  404
  480
  564
  655
  754
  860
  974
  1,094
  1,221
  1,355
  1,495
  1,642
  1,795
  1,955
  2,121
  2,295
  2,475
  2,662
Tax expense, $m
  9
  3
  5
  8
  11
  15
  21
  28
  37
  48
  60
  74
  91
  109
  130
  152
  177
  204
  232
  263
  295
  330
  366
  404
  443
  485
  528
  573
  620
  668
  719
Net income, $m
  25
  9
  14
  21
  30
  42
  57
  77
  100
  129
  162
  201
  245
  295
  351
  412
  479
  551
  628
  711
  799
  891
  989
  1,091
  1,199
  1,310
  1,427
  1,549
  1,675
  1,807
  1,943

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  34
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  97
  101
  156
  233
  338
  476
  655
  879
  1,154
  1,485
  1,876
  2,330
  2,848
  3,433
  4,085
  4,803
  5,587
  6,436
  7,348
  8,322
  9,357
  10,450
  11,602
  12,810
  14,075
  15,396
  16,774
  18,209
  19,702
  21,254
  22,867
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  63
  101
  156
  233
  338
  476
  655
  879
  1,154
  1,485
  1,876
  2,330
  2,848
  3,433
  4,085
  4,803
  5,587
  6,436
  7,348
  8,322
  9,357
  10,450
  11,602
  12,810
  14,075
  15,396
  16,774
  18,209
  19,702
  21,254
  22,867
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.413
  0.416
  0.410
  0.412
  0.411
  0.414
  0.414
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
Average production assets, $m
  53
  85
  131
  196
  284
  401
  551
  740
  972
  1,250
  1,579
  1,961
  2,398
  2,890
  3,438
  4,043
  4,703
  5,417
  6,185
  7,005
  7,876
  8,796
  9,765
  10,782
  11,847
  12,959
  14,119
  15,326
  16,583
  17,889
  19,247
Working capital, $m
  28
  -10
  -15
  -22
  -32
  -45
  -62
  -84
  -110
  -142
  -179
  -222
  -272
  -328
  -390
  -458
  -533
  -614
  -701
  -794
  -893
  -997
  -1,107
  -1,222
  -1,343
  -1,469
  -1,600
  -1,737
  -1,880
  -2,028
  -2,182
Total debt, $m
  0
  13
  31
  57
  91
  138
  197
  272
  363
  474
  604
  755
  928
  1,122
  1,339
  1,578
  1,840
  2,122
  2,426
  2,750
  3,095
  3,459
  3,842
  4,245
  4,666
  5,106
  5,565
  6,043
  6,540
  7,057
  7,594
Total liabilities, $m
  21
  34
  52
  78
  112
  159
  218
  293
  384
  495
  625
  776
  949
  1,143
  1,360
  1,599
  1,861
  2,143
  2,447
  2,771
  3,116
  3,480
  3,863
  4,266
  4,687
  5,127
  5,586
  6,064
  6,561
  7,078
  7,615
Total equity, $m
  76
  67
  104
  155
  225
  318
  437
  586
  770
  991
  1,251
  1,554
  1,900
  2,290
  2,725
  3,204
  3,727
  4,293
  4,901
  5,551
  6,241
  6,970
  7,738
  8,544
  9,388
  10,269
  11,188
  12,145
  13,141
  14,176
  15,252
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  97
  101
  156
  233
  337
  477
  655
  879
  1,154
  1,486
  1,876
  2,330
  2,849
  3,433
  4,085
  4,803
  5,588
  6,436
  7,348
  8,322
  9,357
  10,450
  11,601
  12,810
  14,075
  15,396
  16,774
  18,209
  19,702
  21,254
  22,867
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.190
  0.300
  0.360
  0.410
  0.430
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  25
  9
  14
  21
  30
  42
  57
  77
  100
  129
  162
  201
  245
  295
  351
  412
  479
  551
  628
  711
  799
  891
  989
  1,091
  1,199
  1,310
  1,427
  1,549
  1,675
  1,807
  1,943
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  5
  8
  12
  18
  27
  38
  52
  70
  92
  118
  149
  185
  226
  273
  324
  381
  444
  511
  583
  661
  743
  830
  921
  1,017
  1,118
  1,223
  1,332
  1,446
  1,564
  1,688
  1,816
Funds from operations, $m
  33
  17
  26
  39
  57
  80
  109
  146
  192
  247
  311
  386
  471
  568
  675
  793
  922
  1,062
  1,212
  1,372
  1,542
  1,721
  1,910
  2,109
  2,316
  2,533
  2,759
  2,995
  3,239
  3,494
  3,759
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -13
  -17
  -21
  -26
  -32
  -37
  -43
  -49
  -56
  -62
  -69
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -142
  -148
  -154
Cash from operations, $m
  31
  21
  32
  47
  67
  93
  126
  168
  218
  278
  348
  429
  521
  624
  737
  862
  997
  1,143
  1,299
  1,465
  1,640
  1,825
  2,020
  2,224
  2,437
  2,659
  2,891
  3,131
  3,382
  3,642
  3,913
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -8
  -12
  -18
  -27
  -38
  -52
  -70
  -92
  -118
  -149
  -185
  -226
  -273
  -324
  -381
  -444
  -511
  -583
  -661
  -743
  -830
  -921
  -1,017
  -1,118
  -1,223
  -1,332
  -1,446
  -1,564
  -1,688
New CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -32
  -46
  -65
  -88
  -117
  -150
  -189
  -232
  -279
  -329
  -382
  -437
  -492
  -548
  -605
  -660
  -714
  -768
  -820
  -871
  -920
  -969
  -1,017
  -1,065
  -1,112
  -1,160
  -1,208
  -1,256
  -1,306
  -1,358
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -18
  -37
  -54
  -77
  -106
  -144
  -188
  -241
  -302
  -371
  -447
  -531
  -622
  -718
  -821
  -929
  -1,041
  -1,158
  -1,279
  -1,403
  -1,532
  -1,663
  -1,799
  -1,938
  -2,082
  -2,230
  -2,383
  -2,540
  -2,702
  -2,870
  -3,046
Free cash flow, $m
  13
  -16
  -22
  -31
  -40
  -51
  -62
  -73
  -83
  -92
  -98
  -102
  -101
  -95
  -84
  -67
  -44
  -15
  20
  61
  109
  162
  221
  285
  355
  429
  508
  592
  680
  771
  867
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  13
  18
  26
  35
  46
  59
  75
  92
  110
  130
  151
  173
  195
  217
  239
  261
  283
  304
  324
  344
  364
  383
  402
  421
  440
  459
  478
  497
  517
  537
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  16
  22
  31
  40
  51
  62
  73
  83
  92
  99
  102
  101
  95
  84
  67
  44
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  8
  29
  40
  57
  75
  97
  121
  148
  175
  202
  229
  253
  274
  290
  301
  306
  305
  299
  304
  324
  344
  364
  383
  402
  421
  440
  459
  478
  497
  517
  537
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  21
  13
  18
  26
  35
  46
  59
  75
  92
  110
  130
  151
  173
  195
  217
  239
  261
  283
  324
  386
  453
  526
  605
  688
  776
  869
  967
  1,070
  1,177
  1,288
  1,404
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -27
  -25
  -37
  -51
  -70
  -93
  -119
  -150
  -184
  -221
  -261
  -303
  -346
  -390
  -435
  -479
  -523
  -566
  -608
  -650
  -690
  -729
  -768
  -806
  -844
  -881
  -919
  -957
  -996
  -1,035
  -1,076
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  34
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  21
  -18
  -26
  -35
  -46
  -60
  -75
  -92
  -111
  -130
  -151
  -173
  -195
  -218
  -240
  -262
  -283
  -285
  -264
  -237
  -203
  -163
  -118
  -68
  -12
  48
  113
  181
  253
  328
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  20
  -17
  -22
  -29
  -36
  -43
  -51
  -57
  -63
  -68
  -72
  -74
  -74
  -73
  -70
  -67
  -62
  -52
  -41
  -30
  -21
  -14
  -8
  -3
  0
  1
  2
  3
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  89.2
  80.5
  73.6
  67.9
  63.3
  59.6
  56.6
  54.1
  52.1
  50.5
  49.2
  48.2
  47.4
  46.9
  46.5
  46.3
  46.2
  46.2
  46.2
  46.2
  46.2
  46.2
  46.2
  46.2
  46.2
  46.2
  46.2
  46.2
  46.2
  46.2

Evolution Petroleum Corporation is an independent oil and gas company. The Company is engaged in the acquisition, exploitation and development of properties for the production of crude oil and natural gas, onshore in the United States. Its assets include interests in a carbon dioxide (CO2) enhanced oil recovery project (EOR) in Louisiana's Delhi field. Its artificial lift technology is Gas Assisted Rod Pump (GARP). The Company tested GARP technology on marginal producing wells that it owns and operates in the Giddings Field. Its mineral interests include Delhi Holt-Bryant Unit in the Delhi field (Unit) located in Northeast Louisiana. As of June 30, 2016, the Unit was approximately 13,636 acres in size. As of June 30, 2016, the Unit produced approximately 195 million barrels of oil through primary and limited secondary recovery operations. As of June 30, 2016, the Unit had produced over 11 million barrels of oil. The Unit is producing as an EOR project utilizing CO2 flood technology.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Evolution Petroleum (EPM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 9.4
Price to Sales 9.1
Price to Book 3.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 320%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 39.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 29.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Return On Total Capital 40%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.1%
Return On Equity 40%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.1%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 65.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 72.9%
EBITDA Margin 150%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 75.4%
Operating Margin 7.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 130.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 62.4%
Net Profit Margin 96.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.4%
Effective Tax Rate 26.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28%
Payout Ratio 28%

EPM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EPM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $26 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Evolution Petroleum. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Evolution Petroleum. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EPM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EPM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Evolution Petroleum, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Evolution Petroleum.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EPM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 69.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EPM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Evolution Petroleum.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Evolution Petroleum. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EPM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EPM are equal to 203.8%.

Life of production assets of 10.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Evolution Petroleum operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EPM is equal to -23.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $76 million for Evolution Petroleum - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.062 million for Evolution Petroleum is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Evolution Petroleum at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Evolution Petroleum posts 4Q profit   [09:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ LD Micro Index Reconstitution as of August 1, 2017   [Aug-01-17 09:40AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Cars and Small-but-Strong Energy Stocks in Play   [May-19-17 05:20PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Evolution Petroleum posts 3Q profit   [May-08-17 06:50PM  Associated Press]
▶ Webcast-OGIS New York for Evolution Petroleum Corp.   [Mar-08-17 05:56PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ Evolution Petroleum posts 2Q profit   [Feb-09-17 05:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Stemline Therapeutics Inc (STML) a Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-13-16 09:41AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of EPM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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