Intrinsic value of EPR Properties - EPR

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$73.93

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as EPR.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EPR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.10
  16.70
  15.53
  14.48
  13.53
  12.68
  11.91
  11.22
  10.60
  10.04
  9.53
  9.08
  8.67
  8.30
  7.97
  7.68
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.76
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
Revenue, $m
  493
  491
  568
  650
  738
  831
  930
  1,035
  1,144
  1,259
  1,379
  1,504
  1,635
  1,770
  1,912
  2,058
  2,211
  2,369
  2,534
  2,705
  2,883
  3,068
  3,261
  3,462
  3,671
  3,888
  4,116
  4,352
  4,600
  4,858
  5,127
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  160
  184
  211
  240
  270
  302
  336
  372
  409
  448
  489
  531
  575
  621
  668
  718
  769
  823
  879
  936
  996
  1,059
  1,124
  1,192
  1,263
  1,337
  1,414
  1,494
  1,578
  1,665
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  177
  160
  184
  211
  240
  270
  302
  336
  372
  409
  448
  489
  531
  575
  621
  668
  718
  769
  823
  879
  936
  996
  1,059
  1,124
  1,192
  1,263
  1,337
  1,414
  1,494
  1,578
  1,665
Operating income, $m
  317
  332
  383
  439
  498
  561
  628
  698
  772
  850
  931
  1,016
  1,104
  1,195
  1,291
  1,390
  1,493
  1,600
  1,711
  1,827
  1,947
  2,072
  2,202
  2,337
  2,479
  2,626
  2,779
  2,939
  3,106
  3,280
  3,462
EBITDA, $m
  425
  454
  524
  600
  682
  768
  859
  956
  1,057
  1,163
  1,274
  1,390
  1,510
  1,636
  1,766
  1,902
  2,043
  2,189
  2,341
  2,500
  2,664
  2,835
  3,013
  3,199
  3,392
  3,593
  3,803
  4,022
  4,250
  4,488
  4,738
Interest expense (income), $m
  96
  99
  117
  136
  157
  180
  203
  229
  255
  283
  312
  343
  375
  408
  443
  478
  516
  555
  595
  637
  680
  726
  773
  822
  873
  926
  982
  1,039
  1,100
  1,163
  1,228
Earnings before tax, $m
  226
  233
  266
  302
  341
  381
  425
  470
  517
  567
  619
  673
  729
  787
  848
  911
  977
  1,045
  1,116
  1,190
  1,266
  1,346
  1,429
  1,516
  1,606
  1,699
  1,797
  1,900
  2,006
  2,118
  2,234
Tax expense, $m
  1
  63
  72
  82
  92
  103
  115
  127
  140
  153
  167
  182
  197
  213
  229
  246
  264
  282
  301
  321
  342
  363
  386
  409
  434
  459
  485
  513
  542
  572
  603
Net income, $m
  225
  170
  194
  221
  249
  278
  310
  343
  378
  414
  452
  491
  532
  575
  619
  665
  713
  763
  815
  869
  924
  983
  1,043
  1,106
  1,172
  1,241
  1,312
  1,387
  1,465
  1,546
  1,631

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,865
  4,913
  5,676
  6,498
  7,377
  8,312
  9,302
  10,345
  11,442
  12,590
  13,790
  15,042
  16,347
  17,704
  19,116
  20,583
  22,108
  23,693
  25,340
  27,052
  28,832
  30,684
  32,611
  34,617
  36,707
  38,885
  41,155
  43,524
  45,997
  48,578
  51,275
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,846
  4,913
  5,676
  6,498
  7,377
  8,312
  9,302
  10,345
  11,442
  12,590
  13,790
  15,042
  16,347
  17,704
  19,116
  20,583
  22,108
  23,693
  25,340
  27,052
  28,832
  30,684
  32,611
  34,617
  36,707
  38,885
  41,155
  43,524
  45,997
  48,578
  51,275
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.102
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
Average production assets, $m
  3,683
  3,666
  4,235
  4,849
  5,505
  6,202
  6,941
  7,720
  8,538
  9,395
  10,290
  11,224
  12,198
  13,211
  14,264
  15,359
  16,497
  17,680
  18,909
  20,186
  21,514
  22,896
  24,334
  25,831
  27,391
  29,016
  30,710
  32,478
  34,323
  36,249
  38,261
Working capital, $m
  0
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
Total debt, $m
  2,486
  2,340
  2,728
  3,146
  3,594
  4,070
  4,574
  5,105
  5,663
  6,247
  6,858
  7,495
  8,159
  8,850
  9,569
  10,316
  11,092
  11,899
  12,737
  13,608
  14,514
  15,457
  16,438
  17,459
  18,523
  19,631
  20,787
  21,993
  23,251
  24,565
  25,938
Total liabilities, $m
  2,679
  2,501
  2,889
  3,307
  3,755
  4,231
  4,735
  5,266
  5,824
  6,408
  7,019
  7,656
  8,320
  9,011
  9,730
  10,477
  11,253
  12,060
  12,898
  13,769
  14,675
  15,618
  16,599
  17,620
  18,684
  19,792
  20,948
  22,154
  23,412
  24,726
  26,099
Total equity, $m
  2,186
  2,412
  2,787
  3,190
  3,622
  4,081
  4,567
  5,080
  5,618
  6,182
  6,771
  7,386
  8,026
  8,693
  9,386
  10,106
  10,855
  11,633
  12,442
  13,282
  14,156
  15,066
  16,012
  16,997
  18,023
  19,092
  20,207
  21,370
  22,584
  23,852
  25,176
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,865
  4,913
  5,676
  6,497
  7,377
  8,312
  9,302
  10,346
  11,442
  12,590
  13,790
  15,042
  16,346
  17,704
  19,116
  20,583
  22,108
  23,693
  25,340
  27,051
  28,831
  30,684
  32,611
  34,617
  36,707
  38,884
  41,155
  43,524
  45,996
  48,578
  51,275
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.137
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.447
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  225
  170
  194
  221
  249
  278
  310
  343
  378
  414
  452
  491
  532
  575
  619
  665
  713
  763
  815
  869
  924
  983
  1,043
  1,106
  1,172
  1,241
  1,312
  1,387
  1,465
  1,546
  1,631
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  108
  122
  141
  162
  184
  207
  231
  257
  285
  313
  343
  374
  407
  440
  475
  512
  550
  589
  630
  673
  717
  763
  811
  861
  913
  967
  1,024
  1,083
  1,144
  1,208
  1,275
Funds from operations, $m
  276
  292
  336
  382
  432
  485
  541
  600
  662
  727
  795
  865
  939
  1,015
  1,095
  1,177
  1,263
  1,352
  1,445
  1,541
  1,642
  1,746
  1,854
  1,967
  2,085
  2,208
  2,336
  2,469
  2,609
  2,754
  2,906
Change in working capital, $m
  -30
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  306
  587
  336
  383
  433
  486
  542
  601
  663
  728
  796
  867
  940
  1,017
  1,096
  1,179
  1,265
  1,354
  1,447
  1,543
  1,643
  1,748
  1,856
  1,969
  2,087
  2,210
  2,338
  2,472
  2,611
  2,757
  2,909
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -105
  -122
  -141
  -162
  -183
  -207
  -231
  -257
  -285
  -313
  -343
  -374
  -407
  -440
  -475
  -512
  -550
  -589
  -630
  -673
  -717
  -763
  -811
  -861
  -913
  -967
  -1,024
  -1,083
  -1,144
  -1,208
New CAPEX, $m
  -633
  -525
  -569
  -613
  -656
  -698
  -739
  -779
  -818
  -857
  -896
  -934
  -973
  -1,013
  -1,053
  -1,095
  -1,138
  -1,183
  -1,229
  -1,277
  -1,328
  -1,382
  -1,438
  -1,497
  -1,559
  -1,625
  -1,694
  -1,768
  -1,845
  -1,926
  -2,012
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -662
  -630
  -691
  -754
  -818
  -881
  -946
  -1,010
  -1,075
  -1,142
  -1,209
  -1,277
  -1,347
  -1,420
  -1,493
  -1,570
  -1,650
  -1,733
  -1,818
  -1,907
  -2,001
  -2,099
  -2,201
  -2,308
  -2,420
  -2,538
  -2,661
  -2,792
  -2,928
  -3,070
  -3,220
Free cash flow, $m
  -356
  -42
  -355
  -371
  -384
  -395
  -403
  -409
  -412
  -413
  -413
  -411
  -407
  -403
  -398
  -392
  -385
  -378
  -372
  -365
  -358
  -351
  -345
  -339
  -333
  -328
  -324
  -320
  -316
  -314
  -312
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  515
  358
  388
  418
  447
  476
  504
  531
  558
  584
  611
  637
  664
  691
  719
  747
  776
  807
  838
  871
  906
  943
  981
  1,021
  1,064
  1,109
  1,156
  1,206
  1,258
  1,314
  1,373
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  137
  23
  341
  356
  369
  378
  385
  390
  392
  393
  391
  388
  384
  379
  372
  365
  358
  350
  342
  334
  326
  318
  310
  303
  296
  289
  283
  277
  272
  267
  263
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  637
  381
  729
  774
  816
  854
  889
  921
  950
  977
  1,002
  1,025
  1,048
  1,070
  1,091
  1,112
  1,134
  1,157
  1,180
  1,205
  1,232
  1,261
  1,291
  1,324
  1,360
  1,398
  1,439
  1,483
  1,530
  1,581
  1,636
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  281
  316
  33
  47
  63
  81
  101
  123
  146
  171
  198
  227
  257
  288
  321
  355
  391
  428
  467
  507
  548
  591
  636
  682
  730
  780
  832
  886
  942
  1,000
  1,061
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -112
  -342
  -375
  -403
  -432
  -459
  -486
  -512
  -538
  -564
  -589
  -615
  -640
  -667
  -693
  -721
  -749
  -778
  -809
  -841
  -874
  -909
  -946
  -985
  -1,026
  -1,069
  -1,115
  -1,163
  -1,214
  -1,268
  -1,324
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  8.40
  8.82
  9.26
  9.72
  10.21
  10.72
  11.26
  11.82
  12.41
  13.03
  13.68
  14.37
  15.09
  15.84
  16.63
  17.46
  18.34
  19.25
  20.22
  21.23
  22.29
  23.40
  24.57
  25.80
  27.09
  28.45
  29.87
  31.36
  32.93
  34.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.5
  93.6
  88.6
  84.3
  80.5
  77.3
  74.5
  72.0
  69.8
  67.9
  66.2
  64.7
  63.4
  62.2
  61.2
  60.2
  59.4
  58.6
  57.9
  57.3
  56.7
  56.2
  55.7
  55.3
  54.9
  54.5
  54.2
  53.9
  53.6
  53.4

EPR Properties is a real estate investment trust. It invests in the real estate markets of United States and Canada. The firm develops, owns, leases and finances properties in select market segments primarily related to entertainment, education and recreation. It was formerly known as Entertainment Properties Trust. EPR Properties was founded on August 22, 1997 and is based in Kansas City, Missouri.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  EPR Properties (EPR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.9
Price to Sales 9.5
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -14.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 17.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 7.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 113.7%
Total Debt to Equity 113.7%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Return On Total Capital 5.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Return On Equity 10.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 95.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 94.5%
EBITDA Margin 87.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 87.6%
Operating Margin 64.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 45.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.3%
Net Profit Margin 45.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Payout Ratio 118.2%

EPR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EPR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $421 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by EPR Properties. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of EPR Properties. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EPR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 16.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.4%, whose default value for EPR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of EPR Properties, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of EPR Properties.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EPR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 32.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EPR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5% for EPR Properties.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for EPR Properties. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EPR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EPR are equal to 746.2%.

Life of production assets of 34.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in EPR Properties operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EPR is equal to -1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2074 million for EPR Properties - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 63.113 million for EPR Properties is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of EPR Properties at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.7 billion.


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Stock chart of EPR Financial statements of EPR Annual reports of EPR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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