Intrinsic value of Equity Commonwealth - EQC

Previous Close

$30.44

  Intrinsic Value

$12.26

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-60%

  Value-price divergence*

+81%

Previous close

$30.44

 
Intrinsic value

$12.26

 
Up/down potential

-60%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+81%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as EQC.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EQC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -29.93
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  501
  511
  523
  536
  551
  568
  586
  606
  628
  651
  676
  703
  731
  762
  794
  828
  865
  903
  944
  987
  1,032
  1,080
  1,130
  1,183
  1,240
  1,299
  1,361
  1,426
  1,495
  1,567
  1,643
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  342
  350
  359
  369
  380
  392
  406
  420
  436
  452
  470
  489
  510
  531
  554
  578
  604
  631
  660
  690
  722
  756
  792
  829
  869
  910
  954
  1,000
  1,049
  1,099
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  115
  118
  121
  124
  127
  130
  133
  136
  140
  143
  147
  151
  154
  158
  162
  166
  170
  175
  179
  184
  188
  193
  198
  203
  208
  213
  218
  224
  229
  235
Total operating expenses, $m
  444
  457
  468
  480
  493
  507
  522
  539
  556
  576
  595
  617
  640
  664
  689
  716
  744
  774
  806
  839
  874
  910
  949
  990
  1,032
  1,077
  1,123
  1,172
  1,224
  1,278
  1,334
Operating income, $m
  57
  54
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  68
  71
  76
  80
  86
  91
  98
  105
  112
  120
  129
  138
  148
  158
  169
  181
  194
  208
  222
  238
  254
  271
  290
  309
EBITDA, $m
  181
  181
  185
  190
  195
  202
  209
  218
  227
  237
  248
  260
  273
  287
  301
  317
  334
  352
  372
  392
  414
  437
  461
  487
  515
  544
  575
  607
  642
  678
  716
Interest expense (income), $m
  85
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  181
  190
  199
  209
  219
  230
Earnings before tax, $m
  234
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -12
  -11
  -9
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -1
  2
  5
  8
  12
  16
  20
  25
  30
  36
  42
  48
  55
  62
  70
  79
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
Net income, $m
  233
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -12
  -11
  -9
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -1
  1
  3
  6
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  26
  30
  35
  40
  45
  51
  57

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  2,095
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,526
  2,481
  2,538
  2,603
  2,676
  2,757
  2,846
  2,943
  3,048
  3,161
  3,283
  3,412
  3,551
  3,698
  3,855
  4,021
  4,198
  4,384
  4,581
  4,790
  5,010
  5,242
  5,487
  5,745
  6,017
  6,304
  6,605
  6,923
  7,257
  7,608
  7,978
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,431
  2,481
  2,538
  2,603
  2,676
  2,757
  2,846
  2,943
  3,048
  3,161
  3,283
  3,412
  3,551
  3,698
  3,855
  4,021
  4,198
  4,384
  4,581
  4,790
  5,010
  5,242
  5,487
  5,745
  6,017
  6,304
  6,605
  6,923
  7,257
  7,608
  7,978
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
  0.206
Average production assets, $m
  2,545
  2,596
  2,656
  2,724
  2,801
  2,885
  2,979
  3,080
  3,190
  3,308
  3,435
  3,571
  3,716
  3,870
  4,034
  4,208
  4,393
  4,588
  4,794
  5,012
  5,243
  5,486
  5,742
  6,012
  6,297
  6,597
  6,912
  7,244
  7,594
  7,962
  8,349
Working capital, $m
  0
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -149
  -157
  -164
Total debt, $m
  1,142
  1,168
  1,198
  1,232
  1,270
  1,313
  1,359
  1,409
  1,464
  1,523
  1,586
  1,654
  1,726
  1,803
  1,884
  1,971
  2,063
  2,160
  2,263
  2,371
  2,486
  2,607
  2,735
  2,869
  3,011
  3,160
  3,317
  3,483
  3,657
  3,840
  4,032
Total liabilities, $m
  1,266
  1,292
  1,322
  1,356
  1,394
  1,437
  1,483
  1,533
  1,588
  1,647
  1,710
  1,778
  1,850
  1,927
  2,008
  2,095
  2,187
  2,284
  2,387
  2,495
  2,610
  2,731
  2,859
  2,993
  3,135
  3,284
  3,441
  3,607
  3,781
  3,964
  4,156
Total equity, $m
  3,260
  1,188
  1,216
  1,247
  1,282
  1,321
  1,363
  1,410
  1,460
  1,514
  1,572
  1,635
  1,701
  1,771
  1,847
  1,926
  2,011
  2,100
  2,194
  2,294
  2,400
  2,511
  2,628
  2,752
  2,882
  3,019
  3,164
  3,316
  3,476
  3,644
  3,821
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,526
  2,480
  2,538
  2,603
  2,676
  2,758
  2,846
  2,943
  3,048
  3,161
  3,282
  3,413
  3,551
  3,698
  3,855
  4,021
  4,198
  4,384
  4,581
  4,789
  5,010
  5,242
  5,487
  5,745
  6,017
  6,303
  6,605
  6,923
  7,257
  7,608
  7,977
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.350
  0.980
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.060
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  233
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -12
  -11
  -9
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -1
  1
  3
  6
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  26
  30
  35
  40
  45
  51
  57
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  124
  127
  130
  133
  137
  141
  145
  150
  156
  161
  168
  174
  181
  189
  197
  205
  214
  224
  234
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
  307
  322
  337
  353
  370
  388
  407
Funds from operations, $m
  136
  112
  115
  118
  122
  126
  131
  136
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  193
  204
  216
  227
  240
  253
  267
  282
  298
  315
  333
  352
  372
  393
  416
  440
  465
Change in working capital, $m
  -27
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
Cash from operations, $m
  163
  113
  116
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  176
  186
  196
  208
  219
  231
  244
  257
  272
  287
  303
  321
  339
  358
  378
  400
  423
  447
  472
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -124
  -127
  -130
  -133
  -137
  -141
  -145
  -150
  -156
  -161
  -168
  -174
  -181
  -189
  -197
  -205
  -214
  -224
  -234
  -245
  -256
  -268
  -280
  -293
  -307
  -322
  -337
  -353
  -370
  -388
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -51
  -60
  -68
  -77
  -85
  -93
  -101
  -110
  -118
  -127
  -136
  -145
  -154
  -164
  -174
  -184
  -195
  -206
  -218
  -230
  -243
  -256
  -270
  -285
  -300
  -316
  -332
  -350
  -368
  -387
Cash from investing activities, $m
  1,052
  -175
  -187
  -198
  -210
  -222
  -234
  -246
  -260
  -274
  -288
  -304
  -319
  -335
  -353
  -371
  -389
  -409
  -430
  -452
  -475
  -499
  -524
  -550
  -578
  -607
  -638
  -669
  -703
  -738
  -775
Free cash flow, $m
  1,215
  -62
  -70
  -79
  -86
  -94
  -101
  -108
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -178
  -186
  -195
  -203
  -212
  -221
  -230
  -239
  -249
  -259
  -269
  -280
  -291
  -303
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -560
  26
  30
  34
  38
  42
  46
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  97
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  134
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  193
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -345
  37
  42
  46
  50
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  74
  76
  79
  81
  83
  86
  89
  91
  94
  97
  99
  102
  104
  107
  109
  112
  115
  117
  120
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -905
  63
  72
  80
  88
  96
  103
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  146
  153
  161
  168
  175
  183
  192
  200
  209
  218
  227
  236
  246
  256
  266
  277
  289
  300
  313
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  310
  2
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  108
  -37
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -79
  -81
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -177
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  2,095
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  2,060
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -159
  -168
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,975
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -40
  -40
  -39
  -38
  -36
  -35
  -32
  -30
  -28
  -25
  -22
  -20
  -18
  -16
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  97.2
  94.3
  91.2
  88.1
  84.9
  81.8
  78.7
  75.7
  72.8
  70.0
  67.3
  64.7
  62.2
  59.9
  57.6
  55.5
  53.5
  51.6
  49.8
  48.0
  46.4
  44.8
  43.3
  41.9
  40.6
  39.3
  38.1
  37.0
  35.9
  34.9

Equity Commonwealth is a publicly owned real estate investment trust. It invests in the real estate markets across Untied States. The firm invests primarily in the commercial office properties. Equity Commonwealth was formed in 1986 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Equity Commonwealth (EQC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.2
Price to Sales 7.5
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 23.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -29.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -54.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 35%
Total Debt to Equity 35%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Return On Total Capital 4.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Return On Equity 7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 59.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.5%
EBITDA Margin 88.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 61.8%
Operating Margin 11.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 46.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.3%
Net Profit Margin 46.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Payout Ratio 7.7%

EQC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EQC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $501 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Equity Commonwealth. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Equity Commonwealth. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EQC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EQC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Equity Commonwealth, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Equity Commonwealth.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EQC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 66.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $112 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EQC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6% for Equity Commonwealth.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Equity Commonwealth. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EQC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EQC are equal to 508%.

Life of production assets of 20.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Equity Commonwealth operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EQC is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3260 million for Equity Commonwealth - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 121.222 million for Equity Commonwealth is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Equity Commonwealth at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.7 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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WSTC West 23.35 11.33  str.sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Equity Commonwealth reports 2Q results   [Jul-24-17 10:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ Equity Commonwealth Declares Series D Preferred Dividends   [Jun-30-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ [$$] Sam Zell Speaks His Mind   [Jun-18-17 03:00PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Equity Commonwealth's Property Pare-Down Continues   [May-04-17 07:18PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Equity Commonwealth reports 1Q results   [May-03-17 07:45PM  Associated Press]
▶ The Equity Commonwealth Repositioning Continues   [Feb-16-17 07:18PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Equity Commonwealth Declares Series D Preferred Dividends   [Jan-12-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ These Stocks Are Strong January Performers (EQC, FAX)   [Dec-28-16 01:00PM  at Investopedia]
▶ Is Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. (PB) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-10-16 08:12AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ 1 Stock I'm Watching, but Won't Buy Yet   [Oct-17-16 09:59AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Equity Commonwealth Declares Series D Preferred Dividends   [Oct-10-16 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Equity Commonwealth Declares Series D Preferred Dividends   [Jul-11-16 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ [$$] Sam Zell's Real Estate Assets Selling at 20% Off   [Apr-27-16 06:41AM  at Barrons.com]
Stock chart of EQC Financial statements of EQC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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