Intrinsic value of Eros International - EROS

Previous Close

$13.40

  Intrinsic Value

$17.41

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+30%

Previous close

$13.40

 
Intrinsic value

$17.41

 
Up/down potential

+30%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of EROS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -7.66
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  253
  258
  264
  271
  278
  287
  296
  306
  317
  329
  341
  355
  369
  385
  401
  418
  437
  456
  477
  498
  521
  545
  571
  598
  626
  656
  687
  720
  755
  791
  830
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  109
  110
  110
  111
  111
  112
  112
  113
  114
  115
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  125
  127
  130
  133
  136
  139
  142
  145
  148
  152
  155
  158
  162
  165
  169
  173
  177
  180
  184
  189
  193
  197
  201
  206
  210
  215
  220
  224
  229
  234
Total operating expenses, $m
  228
  234
  237
  240
  244
  247
  251
  254
  258
  262
  267
  178
  182
  187
  191
  196
  201
  206
  211
  216
  222
  228
  234
  239
  246
  252
  259
  266
  272
  280
  287
Operating income, $m
  25
  24
  27
  30
  35
  40
  45
  52
  59
  67
  75
  177
  187
  198
  210
  222
  236
  250
  265
  282
  299
  318
  337
  358
  380
  403
  428
  454
  482
  511
  542
EBITDA, $m
  163
  207
  212
  218
  225
  233
  242
  252
  262
  274
  287
  301
  316
  333
  350
  369
  389
  410
  432
  456
  481
  508
  537
  567
  599
  633
  668
  706
  746
  788
  832
Interest expense (income), $m
  18
  16
  12
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  35
  39
  43
  47
  51
  56
  61
  67
  72
  78
  85
  91
  98
  106
  114
  122
  131
  140
  150
  160
Earnings before tax, $m
  22
  8
  15
  17
  19
  22
  26
  29
  34
  39
  44
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  180
  189
  199
  209
  221
  233
  246
  260
  274
  290
  306
  324
  342
  362
  383
Tax expense, $m
  11
  2
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  98
  103
Net income, $m
  4
  6
  11
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  25
  28
  32
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  189
  200
  211
  223
  236
  250
  264
  279

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  112
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,343
  1,373
  1,404
  1,440
  1,481
  1,526
  1,575
  1,629
  1,687
  1,749
  1,816
  1,888
  1,965
  2,046
  2,133
  2,225
  2,323
  2,426
  2,535
  2,650
  2,772
  2,901
  3,036
  3,179
  3,330
  3,488
  3,655
  3,831
  4,015
  4,210
  4,414
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,231
  1,373
  1,404
  1,440
  1,481
  1,526
  1,575
  1,629
  1,687
  1,749
  1,816
  1,888
  1,965
  2,046
  2,133
  2,225
  2,323
  2,426
  2,535
  2,650
  2,772
  2,901
  3,036
  3,179
  3,330
  3,488
  3,655
  3,831
  4,015
  4,210
  4,414
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.206
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
  0.188
Average production assets, $m
  880
  902
  923
  947
  974
  1,003
  1,035
  1,071
  1,109
  1,150
  1,194
  1,241
  1,292
  1,345
  1,402
  1,463
  1,527
  1,595
  1,667
  1,742
  1,823
  1,907
  1,996
  2,090
  2,189
  2,293
  2,403
  2,518
  2,640
  2,768
  2,902
Working capital, $m
  46
  -122
  -125
  -128
  -132
  -136
  -140
  -145
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -168
  -175
  -182
  -190
  -198
  -207
  -216
  -226
  -236
  -247
  -258
  -271
  -283
  -297
  -311
  -326
  -341
  -358
  -375
  -393
Total debt, $m
  270
  201
  229
  262
  298
  339
  383
  431
  483
  540
  600
  665
  734
  807
  885
  968
  1,056
  1,149
  1,247
  1,351
  1,460
  1,576
  1,698
  1,827
  1,962
  2,105
  2,255
  2,413
  2,579
  2,754
  2,938
Total liabilities, $m
  539
  1,235
  1,264
  1,296
  1,333
  1,373
  1,417
  1,466
  1,518
  1,574
  1,635
  1,699
  1,768
  1,842
  1,920
  2,003
  2,090
  2,183
  2,282
  2,385
  2,495
  2,611
  2,733
  2,861
  2,997
  3,139
  3,289
  3,448
  3,614
  3,789
  3,973
Total equity, $m
  804
  137
  140
  144
  148
  153
  157
  163
  169
  175
  182
  189
  196
  205
  213
  223
  232
  243
  254
  265
  277
  290
  304
  318
  333
  349
  365
  383
  402
  421
  441
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,343
  1,372
  1,404
  1,440
  1,481
  1,526
  1,574
  1,629
  1,687
  1,749
  1,817
  1,888
  1,964
  2,047
  2,133
  2,226
  2,322
  2,426
  2,536
  2,650
  2,772
  2,901
  3,037
  3,179
  3,330
  3,488
  3,654
  3,831
  4,016
  4,210
  4,414
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.336
  1.460
  1.630
  1.820
  2.010
  2.220
  2.430
  2.650
  2.870
  3.090
  3.300
  3.520
  3.730
  3.940
  4.150
  4.350
  4.550
  4.740
  4.920
  5.100
  5.270
  5.430
  5.590
  5.750
  5.890
  6.030
  6.170
  6.300
  6.420
  6.540
  6.660
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.562
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  6
  11
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  25
  28
  32
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  189
  200
  211
  223
  236
  250
  264
  279
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  138
  183
  185
  187
  190
  193
  196
  200
  204
  208
  212
  124
  129
  135
  140
  146
  153
  159
  167
  174
  182
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  240
  252
  264
  277
  290
Funds from operations, $m
  7
  189
  196
  200
  204
  209
  215
  221
  228
  236
  244
  228
  238
  248
  259
  271
  284
  297
  312
  327
  343
  361
  379
  398
  419
  441
  464
  488
  514
  541
  569
Change in working capital, $m
  -92
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
Cash from operations, $m
  99
  191
  199
  203
  208
  213
  219
  226
  233
  241
  250
  234
  245
  255
  267
  279
  293
  307
  322
  337
  354
  372
  391
  411
  432
  455
  479
  504
  530
  558
  588
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -88
  -90
  -92
  -95
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -159
  -167
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -209
  -219
  -229
  -240
  -252
  -264
  -277
New CAPEX, $m
  -174
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -122
  -128
  -134
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -175
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -200
  -210
  -221
  -231
  -243
  -254
  -266
  -280
  -294
  -308
  -323
  -339
  -355
  -374
  -392
  -411
Free cash flow, $m
  -76
  85
  88
  87
  87
  87
  87
  87
  88
  89
  91
  68
  70
  73
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  118
  124
  132
  140
  148
  157
  166
  176
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -26
  -78
  28
  32
  36
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  65
  69
  73
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  135
  143
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  31
  102
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  6
  24
  28
  32
  36
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  65
  69
  73
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  135
  143
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -71
  109
  116
  120
  123
  127
  131
  136
  140
  146
  151
  132
  139
  146
  153
  161
  170
  179
  189
  199
  210
  221
  233
  246
  260
  274
  290
  306
  323
  341
  361
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -64
  -107
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1
  113
  116
  119
  122
  126
  130
  135
  140
  145
  125
  131
  138
  145
  152
  160
  169
  178
  187
  197
  208
  220
  232
  245
  259
  273
  288
  305
  322
  340
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1
  104
  101
  98
  95
  92
  88
  84
  80
  76
  60
  56
  52
  49
  45
  41
  37
  33
  29
  25
  22
  18
  15
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7
  74.7

Eros International Plc (Eros) is a holding company, which serves the Indian film entertainment industry. The Company's principal activities include the acquisition, co-production and distribution of Indian films and related content. It distributes its film content through the distribution channels, such as theatrical, including multiplex chains and standalone theaters; television syndication, including satellite television broadcasting, cable television and terrestrial television; digital and ancillary, including music, inflight entertainment, home video, Internet protocol television (IPTV), video on demand (VOD), and Internet channels and Eros Now. As of March 31, 2016, its distribution network extends to over 50 countries, such as the United States, the United Kingdom, the Middle East, Germany, Poland, Russia, Romania, Indonesia and Arabic speaking countries. It conducts global operations through its Indian and international subsidiaries, including Eros International Media Limited.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Eros International (EROS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 203.3
Price to Sales 3.2
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -10.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -18.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 11.2%
Total Debt to Equity 33.6%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Return On Total Capital 0.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Equity 0.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.2%
EBITDA Margin 70.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 66.2%
Operating Margin 9.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.5%
Net Profit Margin 1.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Effective Tax Rate 50%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

EROS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EROS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $253 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Eros International. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Eros International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EROS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EROS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Eros International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Eros International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EROS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 43.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $122 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EROS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.8% for Eros International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Eros International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EROS stock is equal to 9.3%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EROS are equal to 349.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Eros International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EROS is equal to -47.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $30 million for Eros International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 58 million for Eros International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Eros International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Meet Netflix's Next Big Threat   [Jul-22-18 09:40AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Eros Now and Golds Gym Announce Partnership in India   [Jul-09-18 08:45AM  Business Wire]
▶ Eros: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [08:23AM  Associated Press]
▶ Eros International Announces Indian Subsidiary Results   [May-23-18 12:07PM  Business Wire]
▶ Eros posts 3Q profit   [07:57AM  Associated Press]
▶ Eros International Announces Indian Subsidiary Results   [Feb-08-18 09:34AM  Business Wire]
▶ Top NasdaqGM Growth Stocks To Buy   [Jan-25-18 11:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Eros Now Available on Amazon Channels   [Dec-28-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Best High Growth NasdaqCM Stocks This Week   [Dec-19-17 11:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Eros Now Collaborates with Foxxum   [Dec-15-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Eros reports 2Q loss   [Nov-22-17 09:17AM  Associated Press]
▶ High Growth NYSE Stocks   [Nov-18-17 11:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Eros International Announces Indian Subsidiary Results   [Nov-14-17 08:57AM  Business Wire]
▶ Why Does Roku Stock Keep Climbing Higher?   [Nov-13-17 11:49AM  Zacks]
▶ Eros Now Announces Association with Roku   [09:02AM  Business Wire]
▶ [$$] Eros International: court short   [11:50AM  Financial Times]
▶ Eros reports 1Q loss   [08:05AM  Associated Press]
▶ Eros International Shows Rising Price Performance With Jump To 80 RS Rating   [Oct-02-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Eros Now Announces Content Deal with Dharma Productions   [Sep-21-17 09:28AM  Business Wire]
▶ Stocks To Watch: Eros International Sees Relative Strength Rating Jump To 85   [Sep-19-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Eros Now Partners with Opera TV   [08:15AM  Business Wire]
▶ Eros reports 4Q loss   [Jul-28-17 11:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Overheard   [09:35PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ The Latest Slasher Film: Eros Earnings   [10:53AM  The Wall Street Journal]
Financial statements of EROS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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