Intrinsic value of Eros International - EROS

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$10.60

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EROS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.52
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  274
  279
  286
  293
  302
  311
  321
  332
  343
  356
  370
  384
  400
  417
  434
  453
  473
  494
  516
  540
  564
  591
  618
  647
  678
  710
  744
  780
  818
  857
  899
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  204
  209
  214
  220
  227
  234
  242
  251
  260
  270
  280
  291
  303
  316
  330
  344
  360
  376
  393
  411
  430
  450
  471
  494
  517
  542
  568
  595
  624
  654
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  237
  204
  209
  214
  220
  227
  234
  242
  251
  260
  270
  280
  291
  303
  316
  330
  344
  360
  376
  393
  411
  430
  450
  471
  494
  517
  542
  568
  595
  624
  654
Operating income, $m
  38
  75
  77
  79
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  96
  100
  105
  109
  113
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  147
  153
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
EBITDA, $m
  168
  209
  213
  219
  225
  232
  239
  247
  256
  266
  276
  287
  299
  311
  324
  338
  353
  369
  385
  403
  421
  441
  461
  483
  506
  530
  555
  582
  610
  640
  671
Interest expense (income), $m
  13
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
Earnings before tax, $m
  26
  70
  72
  73
  75
  77
  80
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  130
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  192
  201
  211
Tax expense, $m
  13
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  24
  26
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
Net income, $m
  4
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  69
  72
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  183
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,248
  1,087
  1,112
  1,141
  1,173
  1,209
  1,248
  1,290
  1,336
  1,386
  1,439
  1,496
  1,557
  1,621
  1,690
  1,763
  1,840
  1,922
  2,008
  2,100
  2,196
  2,298
  2,405
  2,519
  2,638
  2,763
  2,896
  3,035
  3,181
  3,335
  3,497
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,065
  1,087
  1,112
  1,141
  1,173
  1,209
  1,248
  1,290
  1,336
  1,386
  1,439
  1,496
  1,557
  1,621
  1,690
  1,763
  1,840
  1,922
  2,008
  2,100
  2,196
  2,298
  2,405
  2,519
  2,638
  2,763
  2,896
  3,035
  3,181
  3,335
  3,497
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
Average production assets, $m
  780
  796
  814
  835
  858
  884
  913
  944
  978
  1,014
  1,053
  1,095
  1,139
  1,186
  1,236
  1,290
  1,346
  1,406
  1,469
  1,536
  1,607
  1,681
  1,760
  1,843
  1,930
  2,022
  2,119
  2,220
  2,328
  2,440
  2,559
Working capital, $m
  82
  120
  123
  126
  130
  134
  138
  143
  148
  154
  159
  166
  172
  180
  187
  195
  204
  213
  222
  233
  243
  255
  266
  279
  292
  306
  321
  336
  352
  369
  387
Total debt, $m
  312
  136
  143
  152
  162
  173
  185
  198
  212
  227
  243
  260
  279
  298
  319
  342
  365
  390
  417
  444
  474
  505
  538
  572
  609
  647
  687
  730
  774
  821
  871
Total liabilities, $m
  507
  332
  339
  348
  358
  369
  381
  394
  408
  423
  439
  456
  475
  494
  515
  538
  561
  586
  613
  640
  670
  701
  734
  768
  805
  843
  883
  926
  970
  1,017
  1,067
Total equity, $m
  740
  756
  773
  793
  815
  840
  867
  897
  929
  963
  1,000
  1,040
  1,082
  1,127
  1,175
  1,225
  1,279
  1,336
  1,396
  1,459
  1,526
  1,597
  1,672
  1,750
  1,833
  1,921
  2,012
  2,109
  2,211
  2,318
  2,431
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,247
  1,088
  1,112
  1,141
  1,173
  1,209
  1,248
  1,291
  1,337
  1,386
  1,439
  1,496
  1,557
  1,621
  1,690
  1,763
  1,840
  1,922
  2,009
  2,099
  2,196
  2,298
  2,406
  2,518
  2,638
  2,764
  2,895
  3,035
  3,181
  3,335
  3,498
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.422
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.523
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  69
  72
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  130
  133
  136
  140
  144
  148
  153
  158
  163
  169
  176
  182
  190
  198
  206
  215
  224
  234
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
  307
  322
  337
  353
  370
  388
  407
  426
Funds from operations, $m
  269
  184
  188
  193
  198
  204
  211
  218
  225
  233
  242
  251
  261
  272
  283
  295
  308
  321
  336
  351
  367
  383
  401
  419
  439
  460
  481
  504
  528
  554
  580
Change in working capital, $m
  34
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
Cash from operations, $m
  235
  217
  186
  190
  195
  200
  206
  213
  220
  228
  236
  245
  255
  265
  276
  287
  299
  312
  326
  341
  356
  372
  389
  407
  426
  446
  467
  489
  512
  537
  562
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -130
  -133
  -136
  -139
  -143
  -147
  -152
  -157
  -163
  -169
  -175
  -182
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -215
  -224
  -234
  -245
  -256
  -268
  -280
  -293
  -307
  -322
  -337
  -353
  -370
  -388
  -407
New CAPEX, $m
  -214
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -211
  -146
  -151
  -157
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -191
  -199
  -208
  -217
  -226
  -237
  -248
  -259
  -272
  -284
  -297
  -312
  -327
  -342
  -359
  -376
  -394
  -414
  -434
  -455
  -477
  -501
  -526
Free cash flow, $m
  24
  71
  35
  33
  32
  31
  30
  30
  29
  29
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -4
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  8
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  26
  29
  31
  35
  37
  41
  45
  48
  51
  55
  59
  62
  67
  71
  75
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  29
  78
  42
  42
  42
  42
  42
  43
  43
  44
  45
  45
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  71
  73
  76
  80
  83
  86
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -43
  -16
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  62
  25
  22
  20
  17
  15
  13
  11
  9
  8
  6
  4
  3
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  60
  23
  19
  16
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.7
  99.4
  98.9
  98.3
  97.6
  96.9
  96.0
  95.1
  94.1
  93.1
  92.0
  90.9
  89.7
  88.6
  87.4

Eros International PLC, together with its subsidiaries, co-produces, acquires, and distributes Indian language films in various formats worldwide. The company distributes its film content across various distribution channels, such as theatrical, which includes multiplex chains and stand-alone theaters; television syndication that comprises satellite television broadcasting, cable television, and terrestrial television; and digital and ancillary, which consist of music, inflight entertainment, home video, Internet protocol television, video on demand, and Internet channels, as well as on-demand entertainment portals through Internet-enabled devices. It also distributes its film content through physical formats, such as DVDs and video compact discs (VCDs) in hotels and on airlines, and for use on mobile networks; and distributes and licenses content on physical media, including on Blu-ray and DVDs internationally, as well as on VCDs and DVDs in India. In addition, the company distributes its film content to retail chains and Internet platforms, as well as to wholesalers and retailers; and licenses content to third party distributors internationally to provide content dubbed into local languages for non-South Asian audiences. Further, it is involved in direct sales to corporate customers who bundle the company’s DVDs or VCDs with their products for promotional purposes. The company has rights for approximately 3,000 films in its library. Additionally, it operates as a music publisher for third party owned music rights. The company also provides music content directly, as well as through third party platforms and licensing deals; and through streaming services, digital streaming, CDs, and publishing/master rights licensing. Eros International PLC was founded in 1977 and is based in Secaucus, New Jersey.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Eros International (EROS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 153.5
Price to Sales 2.2
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 29.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -23%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 12.6%
Total Debt to Equity 42.2%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Return On Total Capital 0.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Equity 0.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42%
EBITDA Margin 61.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 65.6%
Operating Margin 13.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.6%
Net Profit Margin 1.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Effective Tax Rate 50%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

EROS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EROS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $274 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Eros International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Eros International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EROS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EROS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Eros International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Eros International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EROS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 73%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EROS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.1% for Eros International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Eros International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EROS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EROS are equal to 284.7%.

Life of production assets of 6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Eros International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EROS is equal to 43.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $740 million for Eros International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 57.538 million for Eros International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Eros International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Eros International Announces Indian Subsidiary Results   [May-26-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Eros Now Partners with T-Mobiles Binge On   [May-15-17 08:27AM  Business Wire]
▶ Eros Now Available on Amazon Fire TV Stick   [Apr-20-17 08:54AM  Business Wire]
▶ Eros International Extends Revolving Credit Facility   [Apr-03-17 08:15AM  Business Wire]
▶ Eros International Rebuts Market Speculation   [Mar-09-17 08:53AM  Business Wire]
▶ Bollywood film maker Eros pitches high-yield bonds   [Mar-05-17 10:20PM  Reuters]
▶ Eros misses 3Q profit forecasts   [Feb-21-17 08:34AM  Associated Press]
▶ Eros International Announces Indian Subsidiary Results   [Feb-10-17 10:05AM  Business Wire]
▶ Is Eros International plc (EROS) Worthy of Your Portfolio?   [Dec-20-16 03:10PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Eros Now Announces Over Two Million Paid Subscribers   [Dec-08-16 09:32AM  Business Wire]
▶ Eros Now available on LycaTV   [09:55AM  Business Wire]
▶ Eros Now Announces Distribution Partnership with Vodafone   [Nov-21-16 09:24AM  Business Wire]
▶ Eros International Announces Indian Subsidiary Results   [Nov-10-16 08:44AM  Business Wire]
▶ Eros Now Launches eBuzz Exclusively on Apple TV   [Sep-06-16 08:24AM  Business Wire]
▶ Eros Now Announces Integration Deal with Reliance Jio   [Aug-25-16 10:59AM  Business Wire]
▶ Eros Now Available on Android TV   [Jun-16-16 01:38PM  Business Wire]
▶ Eros Now Launches on Apple TV   [08:12AM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of EROS Financial statements of EROS Annual reports of EROS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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