Intrinsic value of Elbit Systems - ESLT

Previous Close

$150.75

  Intrinsic Value

$95.56

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-37%

  Value-price divergence*

-17%

Previous close

$150.75

 
Intrinsic value

$95.56

 
Up/down potential

-37%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-17%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ESLT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.89
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,260
  3,325
  3,402
  3,489
  3,587
  3,696
  3,815
  3,945
  4,086
  4,237
  4,400
  4,574
  4,760
  4,957
  5,167
  5,390
  5,627
  5,877
  6,141
  6,420
  6,715
  7,027
  7,355
  7,701
  8,066
  8,450
  8,854
  9,279
  9,727
  10,198
  10,694
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,669
  2,728
  2,797
  2,873
  2,958
  3,051
  3,153
  3,263
  3,381
  3,508
  3,571
  3,716
  3,870
  4,034
  4,208
  4,393
  4,588
  4,794
  5,013
  5,243
  5,486
  5,742
  6,012
  6,297
  6,597
  6,912
  7,245
  7,594
  7,962
  8,349
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  362
  371
  380
  390
  399
  409
  420
  430
  441
  452
  463
  475
  487
  499
  511
  524
  537
  551
  564
  578
  593
  608
  623
  638
  654
  671
  688
  705
  722
  740
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,961
  3,031
  3,099
  3,177
  3,263
  3,357
  3,460
  3,573
  3,693
  3,822
  3,960
  4,034
  4,191
  4,357
  4,533
  4,719
  4,917
  5,125
  5,345
  5,577
  5,821
  6,079
  6,350
  6,635
  6,935
  7,251
  7,583
  7,933
  8,299
  8,684
  9,089
Operating income, $m
  299
  295
  302
  312
  324
  338
  355
  373
  393
  416
  440
  540
  569
  600
  634
  671
  710
  751
  796
  843
  894
  948
  1,005
  1,066
  1,130
  1,198
  1,271
  1,347
  1,428
  1,514
  1,604
EBITDA, $m
  422
  406
  415
  426
  439
  454
  472
  491
  513
  538
  564
  593
  624
  658
  694
  733
  775
  820
  867
  918
  972
  1,030
  1,091
  1,155
  1,224
  1,297
  1,374
  1,455
  1,541
  1,633
  1,729
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  18
  21
  25
  29
  33
  37
  42
  47
  53
  58
  65
  71
  78
  85
  93
  101
  109
  118
  128
  138
  149
  160
  171
  184
  197
Earnings before tax, $m
  279
  289
  295
  302
  312
  323
  337
  352
  368
  387
  407
  502
  527
  553
  582
  612
  645
  680
  718
  758
  801
  847
  896
  947
  1,002
  1,060
  1,122
  1,187
  1,257
  1,330
  1,408
Tax expense, $m
  45
  78
  80
  82
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  110
  136
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  184
  194
  205
  216
  229
  242
  256
  271
  286
  303
  321
  339
  359
  380
Net income, $m
  237
  211
  215
  221
  228
  236
  246
  257
  269
  283
  297
  367
  385
  404
  425
  447
  471
  497
  524
  554
  585
  618
  654
  691
  732
  774
  819
  867
  917
  971
  1,028

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  245
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,352
  4,188
  4,284
  4,394
  4,518
  4,655
  4,805
  4,969
  5,146
  5,337
  5,542
  5,761
  5,995
  6,244
  6,508
  6,789
  7,086
  7,401
  7,734
  8,086
  8,458
  8,850
  9,263
  9,699
  10,158
  10,642
  11,151
  11,687
  12,251
  12,844
  13,468
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,107
  4,188
  4,284
  4,394
  4,518
  4,655
  4,805
  4,969
  5,146
  5,337
  5,542
  5,761
  5,995
  6,244
  6,508
  6,789
  7,086
  7,401
  7,734
  8,086
  8,458
  8,850
  9,263
  9,699
  10,158
  10,642
  11,151
  11,687
  12,251
  12,844
  13,468
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
  0.794
Average production assets, $m
  299
  306
  313
  321
  330
  340
  351
  363
  376
  390
  405
  421
  438
  456
  475
  496
  518
  541
  565
  591
  618
  646
  677
  708
  742
  777
  815
  854
  895
  938
  984
Working capital, $m
  497
  495
  507
  520
  535
  551
  568
  588
  609
  631
  656
  682
  709
  739
  770
  803
  838
  876
  915
  957
  1,001
  1,047
  1,096
  1,147
  1,202
  1,259
  1,319
  1,383
  1,449
  1,520
  1,593
Total debt, $m
  406
  223
  283
  352
  429
  514
  608
  710
  820
  939
  1,066
  1,203
  1,349
  1,504
  1,669
  1,843
  2,029
  2,225
  2,432
  2,652
  2,883
  3,127
  3,385
  3,656
  3,943
  4,244
  4,561
  4,895
  5,246
  5,616
  6,005
Total liabilities, $m
  2,792
  2,609
  2,669
  2,738
  2,815
  2,900
  2,994
  3,096
  3,206
  3,325
  3,452
  3,589
  3,735
  3,890
  4,055
  4,229
  4,415
  4,611
  4,818
  5,038
  5,269
  5,513
  5,771
  6,042
  6,329
  6,630
  6,947
  7,281
  7,632
  8,002
  8,391
Total equity, $m
  1,560
  1,579
  1,615
  1,657
  1,703
  1,755
  1,812
  1,873
  1,940
  2,012
  2,089
  2,172
  2,260
  2,354
  2,454
  2,559
  2,672
  2,790
  2,916
  3,048
  3,189
  3,336
  3,492
  3,657
  3,830
  4,012
  4,204
  4,406
  4,619
  4,842
  5,077
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,352
  4,188
  4,284
  4,395
  4,518
  4,655
  4,806
  4,969
  5,146
  5,337
  5,541
  5,761
  5,995
  6,244
  6,509
  6,788
  7,087
  7,401
  7,734
  8,086
  8,458
  8,849
  9,263
  9,699
  10,159
  10,642
  11,151
  11,687
  12,251
  12,844
  13,468
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.260
  0.140
  0.180
  0.210
  0.250
  0.290
  0.340
  0.380
  0.420
  0.470
  0.510
  0.550
  0.600
  0.640
  0.680
  0.720
  0.760
  0.800
  0.830
  0.870
  0.900
  0.940
  0.970
  1.000
  1.030
  1.060
  1.080
  1.110
  1.140
  1.160
  1.180
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.321
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  237
  211
  215
  221
  228
  236
  246
  257
  269
  283
  297
  367
  385
  404
  425
  447
  471
  497
  524
  554
  585
  618
  654
  691
  732
  774
  819
  867
  917
  971
  1,028
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  123
  111
  112
  113
  114
  116
  117
  119
  120
  122
  124
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  68
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
Funds from operations, $m
  73
  322
  327
  334
  342
  352
  363
  375
  389
  404
  421
  420
  440
  462
  485
  510
  537
  565
  596
  628
  663
  700
  739
  781
  825
  872
  922
  975
  1,031
  1,090
  1,152
Change in working capital, $m
  -135
  10
  11
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
Cash from operations, $m
  208
  312
  316
  321
  328
  336
  345
  356
  368
  382
  397
  394
  412
  432
  453
  477
  501
  528
  556
  587
  619
  654
  690
  730
  771
  815
  862
  912
  964
  1,020
  1,078
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
New CAPEX, $m
  -124
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -118
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -165
Free cash flow, $m
  90
  268
  270
  273
  278
  284
  291
  299
  309
  320
  333
  327
  342
  358
  376
  396
  417
  439
  464
  490
  517
  547
  578
  612
  648
  686
  726
  769
  815
  863
  914
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -99
  51
  60
  69
  77
  85
  94
  102
  110
  119
  128
  137
  146
  155
  165
  175
  185
  196
  207
  219
  231
  244
  258
  271
  286
  301
  317
  334
  351
  370
  389
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -99
  51
  60
  69
  77
  85
  94
  102
  110
  119
  128
  137
  146
  155
  165
  175
  185
  196
  207
  219
  231
  244
  258
  271
  286
  301
  317
  334
  351
  370
  389
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -9
  319
  330
  342
  355
  369
  385
  401
  420
  439
  460
  463
  488
  514
  541
  571
  602
  636
  671
  709
  749
  791
  836
  884
  934
  987
  1,044
  1,103
  1,166
  1,233
  1,303
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -169
  -30
  -36
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -235
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  300
  294
  300
  308
  317
  328
  340
  353
  367
  383
  381
  400
  420
  442
  465
  490
  517
  545
  576
  609
  643
  680
  719
  761
  805
  852
  901
  953
  1,009
  1,068
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  287
  269
  261
  254
  246
  238
  230
  221
  211
  201
  181
  170
  160
  148
  136
  125
  112
  100
  89
  77
  67
  56
  47
  39
  31
  25
  19
  15
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Elbit Systems Ltd. is an international technology company engaged in a range of programs across the world. The Company develops and supplies a portfolio of airborne, land and naval systems and products for defense, homeland security and commercial aviation applications. Its systems and products are installed on new platforms, and it also performs platform modernization programs. In addition, it provides a range of support services. The Company's activities include military aircraft and helicopter systems; helmet mounted systems; commercial aviation systems and aerostructures; unmanned aircraft and unmanned surface vessels; land vehicle systems; command, control, communications, computer and intelligence (C4I) systems; intelligence and cyber systems; electro-optic and countermeasures systems; electronic warfare and signal intelligence systems, and various commercial activities. It operates primarily in the defense and homeland security arenas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Elbit Systems (ESLT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.2
Price to Sales 2
Price to Book 4.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 31
Price to Free Cash Flow 76.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 25.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 11%
Total Debt to Equity 26%
Interest Coverage 48
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Return On Total Capital 12.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Return On Equity 16.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.7%
EBITDA Margin 12.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Operating Margin 9.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Net Profit Margin 7.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Effective Tax Rate 16.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.9%
Payout Ratio 28.7%

ESLT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ESLT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3260 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Elbit Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Elbit Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ESLT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ESLT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Elbit Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Elbit Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ESLT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $353 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ESLT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Elbit Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Elbit Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ESLT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ESLT are equal to 9.2%.

Life of production assets of 7.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Elbit Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ESLT is equal to 14.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1560 million for Elbit Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 42.4 million for Elbit Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Elbit Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Cyberbit Opens New Office in Germany   [Oct-04-17 03:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Elbit Systems to Reorganize the Business of CYBERBIT   [Sep-18-17 03:09AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Elbit posts 2Q profit   [Aug-15-17 11:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Israel Aerospace Industries hunts for US acquisitions   [Aug-13-17 10:47AM  Financial Times]
▶ Aerospace business looks to sign bigger lease at San Antonio airport   [Aug-03-17 04:05PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Cyberbit Opens Singapore Office   [Jul-23-17 08:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] Israel capitalises on expertise in counter-terrorism   [Jun-06-17 11:00PM  Financial Times]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Elbit Systems Ltd. : May 19, 2017   [May-19-17 01:52PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Elbit posts 1Q profit   [07:54AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Elbit Systems Ltd. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 04:27PM  Capital Cube]
▶ NATO to Spend $3 Bn on Defense Technology   [Mar-27-17 09:54AM  Investopedia]
Financial statements of ESLT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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