Intrinsic value of Empire State Realty Trust - ESRT

Previous Close

$20.96

  Intrinsic Value

$13.23

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-37%

  Value-price divergence*

+132%

Previous close

$20.96

 
Intrinsic value

$13.23

 
Up/down potential

-37%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+132%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as ESRT.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ESRT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.04
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
Revenue, $m
  678
  723
  769
  818
  868
  921
  975
  1,032
  1,092
  1,154
  1,219
  1,287
  1,358
  1,432
  1,509
  1,590
  1,675
  1,763
  1,856
  1,953
  2,055
  2,162
  2,274
  2,391
  2,514
  2,643
  2,778
  2,920
  3,069
  3,225
  3,389
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  552
  584
  618
  653
  690
  728
  767
  809
  852
  897
  895
  944
  996
  1,050
  1,106
  1,165
  1,227
  1,291
  1,359
  1,430
  1,504
  1,582
  1,663
  1,749
  1,839
  1,933
  2,031
  2,135
  2,243
  2,357
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  493
  552
  584
  618
  653
  690
  728
  767
  809
  852
  897
  895
  944
  996
  1,050
  1,106
  1,165
  1,227
  1,291
  1,359
  1,430
  1,504
  1,582
  1,663
  1,749
  1,839
  1,933
  2,031
  2,135
  2,243
  2,357
Operating income, $m
  185
  171
  185
  200
  215
  231
  248
  265
  283
  302
  322
  392
  413
  436
  459
  484
  510
  537
  565
  595
  626
  658
  692
  728
  765
  805
  846
  889
  934
  982
  1,032
EBITDA, $m
  340
  355
  378
  402
  427
  453
  480
  508
  537
  568
  599
  633
  668
  704
  742
  782
  824
  867
  913
  961
  1,011
  1,063
  1,118
  1,176
  1,237
  1,300
  1,366
  1,436
  1,509
  1,586
  1,667
Interest expense (income), $m
  69
  69
  77
  85
  94
  102
  111
  121
  131
  141
  152
  163
  175
  187
  200
  213
  227
  242
  258
  274
  290
  308
  327
  346
  366
  388
  410
  433
  458
  484
  511
Earnings before tax, $m
  113
  102
  108
  115
  122
  129
  136
  144
  152
  161
  170
  229
  238
  249
  259
  271
  282
  295
  308
  321
  335
  350
  366
  382
  399
  417
  436
  456
  476
  498
  521
Tax expense, $m
  6
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  134
  141
Net income, $m
  52
  74
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  118
  124
  167
  174
  181
  189
  198
  206
  215
  225
  234
  245
  256
  267
  279
  291
  304
  318
  333
  348
  364
  380

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  554
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,891
  3,560
  3,790
  4,028
  4,277
  4,535
  4,805
  5,086
  5,379
  5,685
  6,005
  6,339
  6,687
  7,052
  7,433
  7,832
  8,249
  8,686
  9,144
  9,623
  10,125
  10,651
  11,202
  11,780
  12,386
  13,021
  13,687
  14,385
  15,118
  15,886
  16,693
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,337
  3,560
  3,790
  4,028
  4,277
  4,535
  4,805
  5,086
  5,379
  5,685
  6,005
  6,339
  6,687
  7,052
  7,433
  7,832
  8,249
  8,686
  9,144
  9,623
  10,125
  10,651
  11,202
  11,780
  12,386
  13,021
  13,687
  14,385
  15,118
  15,886
  16,693
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
Average production assets, $m
  2,236
  2,384
  2,537
  2,697
  2,863
  3,036
  3,217
  3,405
  3,601
  3,806
  4,020
  4,244
  4,477
  4,721
  4,976
  5,243
  5,523
  5,815
  6,122
  6,443
  6,779
  7,131
  7,500
  7,887
  8,292
  8,717
  9,163
  9,631
  10,121
  10,636
  11,176
Working capital, $m
  0
  -590
  -629
  -668
  -709
  -752
  -797
  -844
  -892
  -943
  -996
  -1,051
  -1,109
  -1,170
  -1,233
  -1,299
  -1,368
  -1,441
  -1,517
  -1,596
  -1,679
  -1,766
  -1,858
  -1,954
  -2,054
  -2,159
  -2,270
  -2,386
  -2,507
  -2,635
  -2,768
Total debt, $m
  1,612
  1,795
  1,983
  2,178
  2,381
  2,593
  2,813
  3,043
  3,283
  3,534
  3,795
  4,068
  4,353
  4,651
  4,963
  5,290
  5,631
  5,988
  6,363
  6,755
  7,165
  7,595
  8,046
  8,519
  9,014
  9,534
  10,079
  10,650
  11,249
  11,878
  12,537
Total liabilities, $m
  2,729
  2,912
  3,100
  3,295
  3,498
  3,710
  3,930
  4,160
  4,400
  4,651
  4,912
  5,185
  5,470
  5,768
  6,080
  6,407
  6,748
  7,105
  7,480
  7,872
  8,282
  8,712
  9,163
  9,636
  10,131
  10,651
  11,196
  11,767
  12,366
  12,995
  13,654
Total equity, $m
  1,162
  648
  690
  733
  778
  825
  875
  926
  979
  1,035
  1,093
  1,154
  1,217
  1,283
  1,353
  1,425
  1,501
  1,581
  1,664
  1,751
  1,843
  1,938
  2,039
  2,144
  2,254
  2,370
  2,491
  2,618
  2,751
  2,891
  3,038
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,891
  3,560
  3,790
  4,028
  4,276
  4,535
  4,805
  5,086
  5,379
  5,686
  6,005
  6,339
  6,687
  7,051
  7,433
  7,832
  8,249
  8,686
  9,144
  9,623
  10,125
  10,650
  11,202
  11,780
  12,385
  13,021
  13,687
  14,385
  15,117
  15,886
  16,692
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.387
  2.770
  2.870
  2.970
  3.060
  3.140
  3.220
  3.290
  3.350
  3.410
  3.470
  3.530
  3.580
  3.620
  3.670
  3.710
  3.750
  3.790
  3.820
  3.860
  3.890
  3.920
  3.950
  3.970
  4.000
  4.020
  4.050
  4.070
  4.090
  4.110
  4.130
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  52
  74
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  118
  124
  167
  174
  181
  189
  198
  206
  215
  225
  234
  245
  256
  267
  279
  291
  304
  318
  333
  348
  364
  380
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  155
  185
  193
  202
  212
  222
  232
  243
  254
  265
  278
  241
  254
  268
  283
  298
  314
  330
  348
  366
  385
  405
  426
  448
  471
  495
  521
  547
  575
  604
  635
Funds from operations, $m
  196
  259
  272
  286
  300
  316
  331
  348
  365
  383
  402
  408
  428
  450
  472
  495
  520
  546
  572
  600
  630
  661
  693
  727
  762
  800
  839
  880
  923
  968
  1,015
Change in working capital, $m
  -23
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -127
  -134
Cash from operations, $m
  219
  295
  310
  326
  342
  359
  376
  394
  414
  434
  455
  463
  486
  510
  535
  562
  589
  618
  648
  680
  713
  748
  784
  823
  863
  905
  949
  996
  1,044
  1,095
  1,149
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -127
  -135
  -144
  -153
  -163
  -173
  -183
  -193
  -205
  -216
  -228
  -241
  -254
  -268
  -283
  -298
  -314
  -330
  -348
  -366
  -385
  -405
  -426
  -448
  -471
  -495
  -521
  -547
  -575
  -604
New CAPEX, $m
  -182
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -166
  -173
  -181
  -188
  -196
  -205
  -214
  -223
  -233
  -244
  -255
  -267
  -279
  -293
  -306
  -321
  -336
  -352
  -369
  -387
  -406
  -425
  -446
  -468
  -490
  -515
  -540
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -182
  -275
  -289
  -304
  -319
  -336
  -354
  -371
  -389
  -410
  -430
  -451
  -474
  -498
  -523
  -550
  -577
  -607
  -636
  -669
  -702
  -737
  -774
  -813
  -854
  -896
  -941
  -989
  -1,037
  -1,090
  -1,144
Free cash flow, $m
  37
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  24
  24
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  11
  11
  11
  10
  10
  9
  9
  8
  7
  7
  6
  5
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -22
  183
  188
  195
  203
  212
  221
  230
  240
  250
  261
  273
  285
  298
  312
  326
  341
  357
  374
  392
  411
  430
  451
  473
  495
  519
  545
  571
  599
  629
  660
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  611
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  528
  183
  188
  195
  203
  212
  221
  230
  240
  250
  261
  273
  285
  298
  312
  326
  341
  357
  374
  392
  411
  430
  451
  473
  495
  519
  545
  571
  599
  629
  660
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  565
  204
  209
  217
  225
  234
  244
  253
  264
  275
  286
  284
  297
  310
  324
  338
  353
  369
  386
  403
  422
  441
  461
  482
  505
  528
  553
  579
  606
  634
  664
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -629
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  554
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  718
  167
  173
  180
  187
  195
  202
  210
  219
  228
  224
  233
  244
  254
  265
  277
  290
  302
  316
  330
  345
  361
  377
  395
  413
  432
  452
  473
  495
  518
Discount rate, %
 
  6.90
  7.25
  7.61
  7.99
  8.39
  8.81
  9.25
  9.71
  10.19
  10.70
  11.24
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.61
  17.44
  18.31
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.25
  23.37
  24.53
  25.76
  27.05
  28.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  672
  145
  139
  132
  125
  117
  109
  100
  91
  82
  69
  61
  53
  46
  39
  32
  27
  22
  17
  13
  10
  8
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. is a real estate investment trust. The Company owns, manages, operates, acquires and repositions office and retail properties in Manhattan and the greater New York metropolitan area, including the Empire State Building. The Company operates through two segments: Real Estate and Observatory. The Real Estate segment includes all activities related to the ownership, management, operation, acquisition, repositioning and disposition of its real estate assets. The Observatory segment operates the 86th and 102nd floor observatories at the Empire State Building. As of December 31, 2016, its portfolio consisted of 14 office properties and six standalone retail properties totaling approximately 10.1 million rentable square feet. The Company's properties include One Grand Central Place, 1400 Broadway, 111 West 33rd Street, 250 West 57th Street, 1359 Broadway and 1333 Broadway.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 62.8
Price to Sales 4.8
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 88.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 28.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 138.7%
Total Debt to Equity 138.7%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Total Capital 2.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Equity 6.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 58.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.9%
EBITDA Margin 49.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.5%
Operating Margin 27.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 16.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Net Profit Margin 7.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Effective Tax Rate 5.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Payout Ratio 109.6%

ESRT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ESRT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $678 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Empire State Realty Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Empire State Realty Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ESRT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.9%, whose default value for ESRT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Empire State Realty Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Empire State Realty Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ESRT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 76.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ESRT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.3% for Empire State Realty Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Empire State Realty Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ESRT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ESRT are equal to 329.8%.

Life of production assets of 17.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Empire State Realty Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ESRT is equal to -81.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1162 million for Empire State Realty Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 160.88 million for Empire State Realty Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Empire State Realty Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Empire State Realty Trust reports 2Q results   [Jul-26-17 11:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ Celebrate Summer At The Empire State Building   [Jul-17-17 02:20PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Here's Why Parkway Inc. Shares Are Soaring by 12% Today   [Jun-30-17 02:48PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 5 Top Diversified REIT Stocks to Buy in 2017   [Jun-27-17 10:02AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Empire State Building Exclusive 4th Of July Celebration   [Jun-06-17 05:44PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Empire State Realty Trust reports 1Q results   [Apr-26-17 05:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ Should You Avoid Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT)?   [Dec-11-16 04:28AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ NYC to Get 1,020-Foot Skydeck Near Grand Central Terminal   [Dec-05-16 05:00AM  at Bloomberg]
Financial statements of ESRT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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