Intrinsic value of Empire State Realty Trust - ESRT

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$21.11

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ESRT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.04
  8.50
  8.15
  7.83
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.67
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
Revenue, $m
  678
  736
  796
  858
  923
  990
  1,060
  1,133
  1,208
  1,287
  1,369
  1,454
  1,543
  1,635
  1,731
  1,832
  1,936
  2,046
  2,160
  2,279
  2,404
  2,535
  2,671
  2,814
  2,963
  3,120
  3,283
  3,455
  3,635
  3,823
  4,021
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  561
  602
  646
  691
  738
  786
  837
  890
  944
  1,001
  1,011
  1,073
  1,137
  1,204
  1,274
  1,347
  1,423
  1,502
  1,585
  1,672
  1,763
  1,858
  1,957
  2,061
  2,170
  2,284
  2,403
  2,528
  2,659
  2,797
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  493
  561
  602
  646
  691
  738
  786
  837
  890
  944
  1,001
  1,011
  1,073
  1,137
  1,204
  1,274
  1,347
  1,423
  1,502
  1,585
  1,672
  1,763
  1,858
  1,957
  2,061
  2,170
  2,284
  2,403
  2,528
  2,659
  2,797
Operating income, $m
  185
  175
  193
  212
  232
  252
  274
  296
  319
  343
  368
  443
  470
  498
  527
  558
  589
  623
  658
  694
  732
  772
  813
  857
  902
  950
  1,000
  1,052
  1,106
  1,164
  1,224
EBITDA, $m
  340
  362
  391
  422
  454
  487
  521
  557
  594
  633
  673
  715
  759
  804
  851
  901
  952
  1,006
  1,062
  1,121
  1,182
  1,246
  1,314
  1,384
  1,457
  1,534
  1,615
  1,699
  1,788
  1,880
  1,977
Interest expense (income), $m
  69
  69
  79
  90
  101
  112
  124
  136
  148
  161
  175
  189
  204
  219
  235
  252
  269
  287
  306
  326
  347
  369
  391
  415
  440
  465
  492
  521
  551
  582
  614
Earnings before tax, $m
  113
  106
  114
  122
  131
  140
  150
  160
  170
  181
  193
  253
  266
  278
  292
  306
  320
  335
  351
  368
  385
  403
  422
  442
  463
  484
  507
  531
  556
  582
  610
Tax expense, $m
  6
  28
  31
  33
  35
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  86
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  165
Net income, $m
  52
  77
  83
  89
  96
  103
  110
  117
  124
  132
  141
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  256
  268
  281
  294
  308
  322
  338
  354
  370
  388
  406
  425
  445

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  554
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,891
  3,624
  3,919
  4,226
  4,545
  4,877
  5,222
  5,580
  5,952
  6,340
  6,742
  7,162
  7,599
  8,054
  8,528
  9,023
  9,539
  10,078
  10,640
  11,228
  11,843
  12,485
  13,157
  13,861
  14,597
  15,367
  16,174
  17,019
  17,905
  18,833
  19,806
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,337
  3,624
  3,919
  4,226
  4,545
  4,877
  5,222
  5,580
  5,952
  6,340
  6,742
  7,162
  7,599
  8,054
  8,528
  9,023
  9,539
  10,078
  10,640
  11,228
  11,843
  12,485
  13,157
  13,861
  14,597
  15,367
  16,174
  17,019
  17,905
  18,833
  19,806
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
Average production assets, $m
  2,236
  2,426
  2,624
  2,829
  3,043
  3,265
  3,496
  3,736
  3,985
  4,244
  4,514
  4,795
  5,087
  5,392
  5,709
  6,041
  6,386
  6,747
  7,124
  7,517
  7,929
  8,359
  8,809
  9,280
  9,772
  10,288
  10,829
  11,394
  11,987
  12,609
  13,260
Working capital, $m
  0
  -601
  -650
  -701
  -754
  -809
  -866
  -925
  -987
  -1,051
  -1,118
  -1,188
  -1,260
  -1,336
  -1,414
  -1,496
  -1,582
  -1,671
  -1,765
  -1,862
  -1,964
  -2,071
  -2,182
  -2,299
  -2,421
  -2,549
  -2,683
  -2,823
  -2,970
  -3,123
  -3,285
Total debt, $m
  1,612
  1,847
  2,089
  2,340
  2,601
  2,872
  3,154
  3,447
  3,752
  4,069
  4,398
  4,741
  5,099
  5,471
  5,859
  6,264
  6,686
  7,127
  7,587
  8,068
  8,570
  9,096
  9,646
  10,221
  10,823
  11,453
  12,113
  12,805
  13,529
  14,288
  15,084
Total liabilities, $m
  2,729
  2,964
  3,206
  3,457
  3,718
  3,989
  4,271
  4,564
  4,869
  5,186
  5,515
  5,858
  6,216
  6,588
  6,976
  7,381
  7,803
  8,244
  8,704
  9,185
  9,687
  10,213
  10,763
  11,338
  11,940
  12,570
  13,230
  13,922
  14,646
  15,405
  16,201
Total equity, $m
  1,162
  660
  713
  769
  827
  888
  950
  1,016
  1,083
  1,154
  1,227
  1,303
  1,383
  1,466
  1,552
  1,642
  1,736
  1,834
  1,937
  2,044
  2,155
  2,272
  2,395
  2,523
  2,657
  2,797
  2,944
  3,098
  3,259
  3,428
  3,605
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,891
  3,624
  3,919
  4,226
  4,545
  4,877
  5,221
  5,580
  5,952
  6,340
  6,742
  7,161
  7,599
  8,054
  8,528
  9,023
  9,539
  10,078
  10,641
  11,229
  11,842
  12,485
  13,158
  13,861
  14,597
  15,367
  16,174
  17,020
  17,905
  18,833
  19,806
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.387
  2.800
  2.930
  3.040
  3.140
  3.240
  3.320
  3.390
  3.460
  3.530
  3.580
  3.640
  3.690
  3.730
  3.770
  3.810
  3.850
  3.890
  3.920
  3.950
  3.980
  4.000
  4.030
  4.050
  4.070
  4.100
  4.120
  4.130
  4.150
  4.170
  4.180
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  52
  77
  83
  89
  96
  103
  110
  117
  124
  132
  141
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  256
  268
  281
  294
  308
  322
  338
  354
  370
  388
  406
  425
  445
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  155
  187
  198
  210
  222
  235
  248
  261
  276
  290
  306
  272
  289
  306
  324
  343
  363
  383
  405
  427
  450
  475
  500
  527
  555
  585
  615
  647
  681
  716
  753
Funds from operations, $m
  196
  264
  281
  299
  318
  337
  357
  378
  400
  423
  446
  457
  483
  510
  537
  566
  597
  628
  661
  695
  731
  769
  809
  850
  893
  938
  985
  1,035
  1,087
  1,141
  1,198
Change in working capital, $m
  -23
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
Cash from operations, $m
  219
  353
  330
  350
  371
  392
  414
  438
  462
  487
  513
  527
  555
  585
  616
  648
  682
  717
  754
  793
  833
  876
  920
  966
  1,015
  1,066
  1,119
  1,175
  1,234
  1,295
  1,360
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -127
  -138
  -149
  -161
  -173
  -186
  -199
  -212
  -226
  -241
  -256
  -272
  -289
  -306
  -324
  -343
  -363
  -383
  -405
  -427
  -450
  -475
  -500
  -527
  -555
  -585
  -615
  -647
  -681
  -716
New CAPEX, $m
  -182
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -222
  -231
  -240
  -249
  -259
  -270
  -281
  -292
  -305
  -318
  -331
  -346
  -361
  -377
  -394
  -411
  -430
  -450
  -471
  -493
  -516
  -540
  -566
  -593
  -621
  -651
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -182
  -317
  -336
  -355
  -375
  -395
  -417
  -439
  -461
  -485
  -511
  -537
  -564
  -594
  -624
  -655
  -689
  -724
  -760
  -799
  -838
  -880
  -925
  -971
  -1,020
  -1,071
  -1,125
  -1,181
  -1,240
  -1,302
  -1,367
Free cash flow, $m
  37
  36
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  -10
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -22
  235
  242
  251
  261
  271
  282
  293
  305
  317
  330
  343
  357
  372
  388
  405
  422
  441
  460
  481
  503
  526
  550
  575
  602
  630
  660
  691
  724
  759
  796
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  611
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  528
  235
  242
  251
  261
  271
  282
  293
  305
  317
  330
  343
  357
  372
  388
  405
  422
  441
  460
  481
  503
  526
  550
  575
  602
  630
  660
  691
  724
  759
  796
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  565
  271
  236
  247
  257
  268
  280
  292
  305
  318
  332
  333
  348
  364
  380
  397
  416
  435
  455
  476
  498
  521
  545
  570
  597
  625
  654
  685
  718
  752
  788
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -629
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  554
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  774
  182
  191
  199
  208
  217
  227
  237
  247
  258
  256
  268
  281
  294
  307
  322
  337
  352
  369
  386
  404
  423
  442
  463
  485
  508
  532
  557
  583
  611
Discount rate, %
 
  6.90
  7.25
  7.61
  7.99
  8.39
  8.81
  9.25
  9.71
  10.19
  10.70
  11.24
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.61
  17.44
  18.31
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.25
  23.37
  24.53
  25.76
  27.05
  28.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  724
  159
  153
  147
  139
  131
  122
  113
  103
  93
  79
  70
  62
  53
  45
  38
  31
  25
  20
  15
  12
  9
  6
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Empire State Realty Trust, Inc., a real estate investment trust (REIT), focuses on owning, managing, operating, and acquiring office and retail properties in Manhattan and the greater New York metropolitan area. It also intends to provide construction services to tenants and other entities. The company, formerly known as Empire Realty Trust, Inc., is based in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 63.3
Price to Sales 4.9
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15
Price to Free Cash Flow 88.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 28.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 138.7%
Total Debt to Equity 138.7%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Total Capital 2.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Equity 6.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 58.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.9%
EBITDA Margin 49.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.5%
Operating Margin 27.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 16.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Net Profit Margin 7.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Effective Tax Rate 5.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Payout Ratio 109.6%

ESRT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ESRT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $678 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Empire State Realty Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Empire State Realty Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ESRT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.9%, whose default value for ESRT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Empire State Realty Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Empire State Realty Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ESRT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 76.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ESRT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.3% for Empire State Realty Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Empire State Realty Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ESRT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ESRT are equal to 329.8%.

Life of production assets of 17.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Empire State Realty Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ESRT is equal to -81.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1162 million for Empire State Realty Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 152.995 million for Empire State Realty Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Empire State Realty Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Stay away from bitcoin its complete garbage   [Jun-16-17 11:05AM  MarketWatch]
▶ Empire State Building Exclusive 4th Of July Celebration   [Jun-06-17 05:44PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Empire State Realty Trust reports 1Q results   [Apr-26-17 05:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ Should You Avoid Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT)?   [Dec-11-16 04:28AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ NYC to Get 1,020-Foot Skydeck Near Grand Central Terminal   [Dec-05-16 05:00AM  at Bloomberg]
▶ [$$] Qatar Buys Stake in Empire State Building   [12:50AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Qatar fund buys stake in Empire State Building   [Aug-23-16 09:17PM  at MarketWatch]
▶ [$$] Qatar Buys Stake in Empire State   [08:58PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Stock chart of ESRT Financial statements of ESRT Annual reports of ESRT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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