Intrinsic value of Community Bankers Trust - ESXB

Previous Close

$9.85

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$9.85

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as ESXB.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ESXB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -100.00
  3.80
  3.92
  4.03
  4.13
  4.21
  4.29
  4.36
  4.43
  4.48
  4.54
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.73
  4.75
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
Revenue, $m
  0
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  66
  69
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  161
  169
  177
  186
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  131
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  0
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  131
Operating income, $m
  0
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
EBITDA, $m
  3
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  181
  189
  198
  206
  216
  226
  236
  247
  259
  271
  284
  297
  312
  327
  343
  359
  377
  395
  414
  435
  456
  479
  502
  527
  553
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  67
  61
  64
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
Earnings before tax, $m
  14
  -52
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -131
  -138
  -144
Tax expense, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  10
  -52
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -131
  -138
  -144

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,250
  1,107
  1,151
  1,197
  1,246
  1,299
  1,355
  1,414
  1,476
  1,542
  1,612
  1,686
  1,764
  1,846
  1,933
  2,024
  2,121
  2,222
  2,329
  2,441
  2,559
  2,683
  2,814
  2,951
  3,096
  3,247
  3,407
  3,575
  3,751
  3,936
  4,131
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,250
  1,107
  1,151
  1,197
  1,246
  1,299
  1,355
  1,414
  1,476
  1,542
  1,612
  1,686
  1,764
  1,846
  1,933
  2,024
  2,121
  2,222
  2,329
  2,441
  2,559
  2,683
  2,814
  2,951
  3,096
  3,247
  3,407
  3,575
  3,751
  3,936
  4,131
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
Average production assets, $m
  31
  1,335
  1,387
  1,443
  1,503
  1,566
  1,633
  1,704
  1,780
  1,860
  1,944
  2,033
  2,127
  2,226
  2,331
  2,441
  2,557
  2,679
  2,807
  2,943
  3,085
  3,235
  3,392
  3,558
  3,732
  3,915
  4,107
  4,310
  4,522
  4,745
  4,980
Working capital, $m
  0
  -1,251
  -1,300
  -1,353
  -1,409
  -1,468
  -1,531
  -1,598
  -1,668
  -1,743
  -1,822
  -1,906
  -1,994
  -2,087
  -2,185
  -2,288
  -2,397
  -2,511
  -2,632
  -2,759
  -2,892
  -3,033
  -3,180
  -3,336
  -3,499
  -3,670
  -3,851
  -4,040
  -4,239
  -4,449
  -4,669
Total debt, $m
  11
  1,138
  1,177
  1,219
  1,263
  1,311
  1,361
  1,414
  1,470
  1,530
  1,593
  1,659
  1,729
  1,803
  1,881
  1,964
  2,050
  2,141
  2,237
  2,338
  2,445
  2,557
  2,674
  2,798
  2,928
  3,064
  3,208
  3,359
  3,518
  3,684
  3,859
Total liabilities, $m
  1,135
  996
  1,036
  1,077
  1,122
  1,169
  1,219
  1,272
  1,329
  1,388
  1,451
  1,518
  1,588
  1,662
  1,740
  1,822
  1,909
  2,000
  2,096
  2,197
  2,303
  2,415
  2,532
  2,656
  2,786
  2,923
  3,066
  3,217
  3,376
  3,543
  3,718
Total equity, $m
  115
  111
  115
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  148
  154
  161
  169
  176
  185
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  268
  281
  295
  310
  325
  341
  357
  375
  394
  413
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,250
  1,107
  1,151
  1,197
  1,247
  1,299
  1,354
  1,413
  1,477
  1,542
  1,612
  1,687
  1,764
  1,847
  1,933
  2,024
  2,121
  2,222
  2,329
  2,441
  2,559
  2,683
  2,813
  2,951
  3,096
  3,248
  3,407
  3,574
  3,751
  3,937
  4,131
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.096
  10.280
  10.230
  10.180
  10.140
  10.090
  10.050
  10.000
  9.960
  9.920
  9.880
  9.840
  9.800
  9.770
  9.730
  9.700
  9.670
  9.640
  9.610
  9.580
  9.550
  9.530
  9.500
  9.480
  9.460
  9.440
  9.420
  9.400
  9.380
  9.360
  9.340
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.092
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  10
  -52
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -131
  -138
  -144
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  133
  139
  144
  150
  157
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  213
  223
  233
  244
  256
  268
  281
  294
  309
  323
  339
  356
  373
  392
  411
  431
  452
  475
  498
Funds from operations, $m
  19
  81
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  178
  187
  196
  206
  216
  227
  239
  251
  263
  277
  291
  305
  321
  337
  354
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -180
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -220
Cash from operations, $m
  17
  127
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  192
  202
  212
  223
  235
  247
  259
  273
  287
  301
  317
  333
  350
  368
  386
  406
  427
  448
  471
  495
  520
  546
  574
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -129
  -133
  -139
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -178
  -186
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -268
  -281
  -294
  -309
  -323
  -339
  -356
  -373
  -392
  -411
  -431
  -452
  -475
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -42
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -157
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -212
  -223
  -235
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -73
  -171
  -185
  -195
  -204
  -213
  -224
  -234
  -245
  -258
  -270
  -283
  -297
  -312
  -328
  -343
  -360
  -378
  -397
  -416
  -436
  -459
  -480
  -505
  -530
  -556
  -584
  -613
  -643
  -675
  -710
Free cash flow, $m
  -56
  -44
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -135
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -4
  -99
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  130
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
  175
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  187
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  60
  88
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  201
  210
  221
  232
  243
  254
  267
  280
  293
  308
  323
  338
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  4
  43
  45
  48
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  91
  95
  101
  106
  111
  117
  123
  130
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
  175
  184
  194
  203
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -11
  -187
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -163
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  24
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -119
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
Discount rate, %
 
  14.70
  15.44
  16.21
  17.02
  17.87
  18.76
  19.70
  20.68
  21.72
  22.80
  23.94
  25.14
  26.40
  27.72
  29.10
  30.56
  32.09
  33.69
  35.38
  37.15
  39.00
  40.95
  43.00
  45.15
  47.41
  49.78
  52.27
  54.88
  57.63
  60.51
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -104
  -4
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  34.3
  23.6
  16.3
  11.2
  7.7
  5.3
  3.7
  2.6
  1.8
  1.2
  0.9
  0.6
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Community Bankers Trust Corporation is the holding company for Essex Bank (the Bank). The Bank is engaged in a general commercial banking business and provides a range of financial services to individuals and small businesses, including individual and commercial demand and time deposit accounts, commercial and industrial loans, consumer and small business loans, real estate and mortgage loans, investment services and safe deposit box facilities. Essex Services, Inc., a subsidiary of the Bank, and its financial consultants offer a range of investment products and alternatives. It operates in over three business lines: retail and small business banking, commercial and industrial banking and real estate lending. Its investment securities include the United States treasury issue and other United States Government agencies; the United States Government sponsored agencies, and state, county and municipal securities. Its lending and investing activities are funded through its deposits.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Community Bankers Trust (ESXB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.6
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 9.6%
Total Debt to Equity 9.6%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Return On Total Capital 7.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Return On Equity 9.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 28.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

ESXB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ESXB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $48 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Community Bankers Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Community Bankers Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ESXB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.7%, whose default value for ESXB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Community Bankers Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Community Bankers Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ESXB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 70.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ESXB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Community Bankers Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Community Bankers Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ESXB stock is equal to 1.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ESXB are equal to 2679.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Community Bankers Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ESXB is equal to -2511.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for Community Bankers Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 22 million for Community Bankers Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Community Bankers Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
UBSI United Banksha 36.50 54.27  str.buy

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Is Community Bankers Trust Corp. (ESXB) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-01  03:21PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ 10-Q for Community Bankers Trust Corp.   [Aug-10  08:13PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for Community Bankers Trust Corp.   [May-10  08:11PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-K for Community Bankers Trust Corp.   [May-05  08:12PM  at Company Spotlight]
Financial statements of ESXB
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

FREE DOWNLOAD
Follow us on:   twitter   twitter   twitter   twitter

ASSET ALLOCATION

About X-FIN       Site news       Privacy policy       Terms of use       FAQ

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2018. All rigths reserved.