Intrinsic value of Ethan Allen Interiors - ETH

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$27.30

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$27.30

 
Intrinsic value

$38.73

 
Up/down potential

+42%

 
Rating

buy

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ETH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.17
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  794
  810
  829
  850
  874
  900
  929
  961
  995
  1,032
  1,072
  1,114
  1,159
  1,207
  1,259
  1,313
  1,370
  1,431
  1,496
  1,564
  1,636
  1,711
  1,791
  1,876
  1,964
  2,058
  2,156
  2,260
  2,369
  2,484
  2,605
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  333
  341
  349
  359
  370
  382
  395
  409
  424
  440
  458
  476
  496
  517
  540
  563
  588
  615
  643
  672
  703
  736
  771
  807
  846
  886
  929
  974
  1,021
  1,070
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  398
  408
  418
  428
  439
  450
  461
  473
  485
  497
  509
  522
  535
  548
  562
  576
  590
  605
  620
  636
  652
  668
  685
  702
  719
  737
  756
  775
  794
  814
Total operating expenses, $m
  705
  731
  749
  767
  787
  809
  832
  856
  882
  909
  937
  967
  998
  1,031
  1,065
  1,102
  1,139
  1,178
  1,220
  1,263
  1,308
  1,355
  1,404
  1,456
  1,509
  1,565
  1,623
  1,685
  1,749
  1,815
  1,884
Operating income, $m
  89
  79
  80
  83
  86
  91
  97
  105
  113
  123
  135
  147
  161
  176
  193
  211
  231
  253
  276
  301
  328
  356
  387
  420
  455
  493
  533
  575
  621
  669
  720
EBITDA, $m
  108
  99
  100
  103
  107
  113
  119
  128
  137
  148
  160
  174
  189
  205
  223
  243
  264
  287
  311
  338
  367
  397
  430
  465
  502
  542
  584
  629
  677
  728
  782
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
Earnings before tax, $m
  88
  77
  78
  80
  84
  88
  94
  101
  110
  119
  130
  142
  156
  170
  187
  204
  224
  244
  267
  291
  317
  345
  375
  407
  442
  478
  517
  559
  603
  650
  700
Tax expense, $m
  31
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  42
  46
  50
  55
  60
  66
  72
  79
  86
  93
  101
  110
  119
  129
  140
  151
  163
  175
  189
Net income, $m
  57
  57
  57
  59
  61
  65
  69
  74
  80
  87
  95
  104
  114
  124
  136
  149
  163
  178
  195
  213
  232
  252
  274
  297
  322
  349
  377
  408
  440
  474
  511

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  53
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  577
  535
  547
  561
  577
  594
  613
  634
  657
  681
  707
  735
  765
  797
  831
  867
  905
  945
  987
  1,032
  1,080
  1,130
  1,182
  1,238
  1,297
  1,358
  1,423
  1,492
  1,564
  1,640
  1,719
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  524
  535
  547
  561
  577
  594
  613
  634
  657
  681
  707
  735
  765
  797
  831
  867
  905
  945
  987
  1,032
  1,080
  1,130
  1,182
  1,238
  1,297
  1,358
  1,423
  1,492
  1,564
  1,640
  1,719
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.515
  1.514
  1.516
  1.515
  1.515
  1.515
  1.515
  1.516
  1.514
  1.515
  1.516
  1.516
  1.515
  1.514
  1.515
  1.514
  1.514
  1.514
  1.516
  1.516
  1.515
  1.514
  1.515
  1.515
  1.514
  1.515
  1.515
  1.515
  1.515
  1.515
  1.515
Average production assets, $m
  159
  162
  166
  170
  175
  180
  186
  192
  199
  206
  214
  223
  232
  241
  252
  263
  274
  286
  299
  313
  327
  342
  358
  375
  393
  412
  431
  452
  474
  497
  521
Working capital, $m
  125
  76
  78
  80
  82
  85
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  185
  193
  203
  212
  223
  233
  245
Total debt, $m
  42
  42
  47
  52
  57
  63
  70
  77
  85
  93
  102
  112
  123
  134
  145
  158
  171
  185
  200
  215
  232
  249
  267
  287
  307
  328
  351
  375
  400
  426
  454
Total liabilities, $m
  185
  185
  190
  195
  200
  206
  213
  220
  228
  236
  245
  255
  266
  277
  288
  301
  314
  328
  343
  358
  375
  392
  410
  430
  450
  471
  494
  518
  543
  569
  597
Total equity, $m
  392
  349
  357
  366
  377
  388
  401
  414
  429
  445
  462
  480
  500
  520
  542
  566
  591
  617
  645
  674
  705
  738
  772
  808
  847
  887
  929
  974
  1,021
  1,071
  1,123
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  577
  534
  547
  561
  577
  594
  614
  634
  657
  681
  707
  735
  766
  797
  830
  867
  905
  945
  988
  1,032
  1,080
  1,130
  1,182
  1,238
  1,297
  1,358
  1,423
  1,492
  1,564
  1,640
  1,720
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.107
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.647
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653
  0.653

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  57
  57
  57
  59
  61
  65
  69
  74
  80
  87
  95
  104
  114
  124
  136
  149
  163
  178
  195
  213
  232
  252
  274
  297
  322
  349
  377
  408
  440
  474
  511
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
Funds from operations, $m
  41
  76
  77
  79
  82
  86
  91
  97
  104
  112
  120
  130
  141
  153
  166
  180
  196
  213
  230
  250
  271
  293
  317
  342
  369
  398
  429
  462
  496
  533
  573
Change in working capital, $m
  -17
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
Cash from operations, $m
  58
  233
  75
  77
  80
  84
  88
  94
  101
  108
  117
  126
  137
  149
  161
  175
  190
  207
  224
  243
  264
  286
  309
  334
  361
  389
  420
  452
  486
  523
  562
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
New CAPEX, $m
  -23
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -13
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
Free cash flow, $m
  45
  211
  52
  53
  55
  57
  61
  65
  71
  77
  84
  92
  101
  111
  122
  135
  148
  162
  177
  194
  212
  232
  252
  275
  298
  324
  351
  380
  411
  443
  478
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -35
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -52
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -7
  215
  56
  58
  60
  64
  68
  73
  79
  86
  93
  102
  112
  122
  134
  147
  161
  176
  192
  210
  229
  249
  271
  294
  319
  345
  373
  404
  436
  470
  506
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -392
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  50
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  258
  48
  49
  50
  52
  55
  59
  64
  70
  76
  84
  92
  102
  112
  124
  136
  150
  164
  180
  198
  216
  236
  258
  280
  305
  331
  359
  389
  420
  454
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  247
  44
  42
  41
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  39
  39
  38
  36
  35
  33
  30
  28
  25
  22
  20
  17
  14
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. operates as an interior design company, and manufacturer and retailer of home furnishings in North America, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. The company operates through two segments, Wholesale and Retail. Its products include case goods items, such as beds, dressers, armoires, tables, chairs, buffets, entertainment units, home office furniture, and wooden accents; upholstery items comprising sleepers, recliners, chairs, ottomans, custom pillows, sofas, loveseats, cut fabrics, and leather; and home accents and other items, including window treatments and drapery hardware, wall decors, florals, lighting, clocks, mattresses, bedspreads, throws, pillows, decorative accents, area rugs, wall coverings, and home and garden furnishings. The company markets and sells its products under the Ethan Allen brand name through home furnishing retail networks and independent retailers, as well as through ethanallen.com Website. As of August 4, 2016, it operated a network of approximately 300 retail design centers. Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Danbury, Connecticut.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ethan Allen Interiors (ETH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 13.3
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 21.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 15%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 18
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 9.9%
Total Debt to Equity 10.7%
Interest Coverage 89
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 20%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Return On Total Capital 26.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.7%
Return On Equity 29.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.5%
Asset Turnover 2.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 55.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.9%
EBITDA Margin 13.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Operating Margin 11.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Net Profit Margin 7.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Effective Tax Rate 35.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.7%
Payout Ratio 29.8%

ETH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ETH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $794 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ethan Allen Interiors. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ethan Allen Interiors. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ETH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ETH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ethan Allen Interiors, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ethan Allen Interiors.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ETH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 41.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $388 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ETH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.8% for Ethan Allen Interiors.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ethan Allen Interiors. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ETH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ETH are equal to 20%.

Life of production assets of 8.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ethan Allen Interiors operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ETH is equal to 9.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $392 million for Ethan Allen Interiors - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.918 million for Ethan Allen Interiors is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ethan Allen Interiors at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [Apr-27-17 11:56AM  Briefing.com]
▶ Ethan Allen misses Street 3Q forecasts   [Apr-26-17 05:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ethan Allen Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Apr-25-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Ethan Allen Announces Launch on Amazon   [Apr-04-17 09:01AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Ethan Allen | Disney Collection Launches on DisneyStore.com   [Mar-31-17 03:58PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Retailers Face Cost Squeeze with Rising Rates   [Mar-23-17 06:09PM  Investopedia]
▶ 5 Top Small-Cap Stock Picks You Can Buy in March   [Mar-04-17 07:01PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. Stock Fell 12%   [Jan-26-17 06:05PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Ethan Allen Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [08:17AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ [$$] Ethan Allen Warns of Lower-Than-Expected Results   [Jan-12-17 01:42AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Ethan Allen Warns of Lower-Than-Expected Results   [09:32AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Ethan Allen warns of profit and sales miss   [07:32AM  at MarketWatch]
▶ Ethan Allen Increases Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Nov-16-16 04:10PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Ethan Allen Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jul-27-16 04:49PM  GlobeNewswire]
Stock chart of ETH Financial statements of ETH Annual reports of ETH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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