Intrinsic value of Ethan Allen Interiors - ETH

Previous Close

$28.45

  Intrinsic Value

$25.22

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  Rating & Target

hold

-11%

Previous close

$28.45

 
Intrinsic value

$25.22

 
Up/down potential

-11%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of ETH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.90
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  763
  778
  796
  817
  840
  865
  893
  923
  956
  992
  1,030
  1,071
  1,114
  1,160
  1,209
  1,262
  1,317
  1,375
  1,437
  1,503
  1,572
  1,645
  1,721
  1,802
  1,888
  1,978
  2,072
  2,172
  2,277
  2,387
  2,503
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  138
  141
  145
  149
  153
  158
  163
  169
  176
  182
  189
  197
  205
  214
  223
  233
  243
  254
  266
  278
  291
  305
  319
  334
  350
  367
  384
  403
  422
  443
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  592
  607
  622
  638
  654
  670
  687
  704
  722
  740
  758
  777
  797
  817
  837
  858
  879
  901
  924
  947
  971
  995
  1,020
  1,045
  1,072
  1,098
  1,126
  1,154
  1,183
  1,212
Total operating expenses, $m
  705
  730
  748
  767
  787
  807
  828
  850
  873
  898
  922
  947
  974
  1,002
  1,031
  1,060
  1,091
  1,122
  1,155
  1,190
  1,225
  1,262
  1,300
  1,339
  1,379
  1,422
  1,465
  1,510
  1,557
  1,605
  1,655
Operating income, $m
  58
  48
  48
  50
  53
  58
  65
  73
  83
  94
  108
  123
  139
  158
  179
  201
  226
  252
  281
  313
  346
  383
  422
  463
  508
  556
  607
  662
  720
  782
  847
EBITDA, $m
  78
  68
  69
  71
  75
  81
  88
  97
  108
  120
  135
  151
  169
  189
  210
  234
  260
  289
  319
  352
  388
  426
  467
  511
  558
  608
  662
  719
  779
  844
  913
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
Earnings before tax, $m
  57
  48
  47
  49
  52
  57
  63
  71
  81
  92
  105
  120
  137
  155
  175
  197
  221
  248
  276
  307
  340
  376
  414
  456
  500
  547
  597
  651
  708
  769
  834
Tax expense, $m
  21
  13
  13
  13
  14
  15
  17
  19
  22
  25
  28
  32
  37
  42
  47
  53
  60
  67
  75
  83
  92
  102
  112
  123
  135
  148
  161
  176
  191
  208
  225
Net income, $m
  36
  35
  35
  36
  38
  42
  46
  52
  59
  68
  77
  88
  100
  113
  128
  144
  162
  181
  202
  224
  248
  275
  303
  333
  365
  399
  436
  475
  517
  562
  609

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  58
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  568
  520
  532
  546
  561
  578
  597
  617
  639
  663
  688
  716
  745
  776
  808
  843
  880
  919
  961
  1,004
  1,051
  1,099
  1,151
  1,205
  1,262
  1,322
  1,385
  1,452
  1,522
  1,596
  1,673
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  510
  520
  532
  546
  561
  578
  597
  617
  639
  663
  688
  716
  745
  776
  808
  843
  880
  919
  961
  1,004
  1,051
  1,099
  1,151
  1,205
  1,262
  1,322
  1,385
  1,452
  1,522
  1,596
  1,673
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.497
  1.497
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.497
  1.496
  1.495
  1.495
  1.496
  1.497
  1.497
  1.496
  1.495
  1.497
  1.496
  1.497
  1.495
  1.495
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
Average production assets, $m
  317
  323
  330
  339
  348
  359
  371
  383
  397
  412
  427
  444
  462
  482
  502
  524
  547
  571
  596
  624
  652
  683
  714
  748
  783
  821
  860
  901
  945
  991
  1,039
Working capital, $m
  117
  63
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  75
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  184
  193
  203
Total debt, $m
  14
  15
  18
  23
  28
  33
  39
  46
  53
  60
  69
  77
  87
  97
  107
  119
  130
  143
  156
  170
  185
  201
  218
  235
  253
  273
  293
  314
  337
  361
  386
Total liabilities, $m
  168
  168
  171
  176
  181
  186
  192
  199
  206
  213
  222
  230
  240
  250
  260
  272
  283
  296
  309
  323
  338
  354
  371
  388
  406
  426
  446
  467
  490
  514
  539
Total equity, $m
  401
  353
  361
  370
  381
  392
  405
  418
  433
  449
  467
  485
  505
  526
  548
  572
  597
  623
  651
  681
  712
  745
  780
  817
  856
  896
  939
  984
  1,032
  1,082
  1,134
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  569
  521
  532
  546
  562
  578
  597
  617
  639
  662
  689
  715
  745
  776
  808
  844
  880
  919
  960
  1,004
  1,050
  1,099
  1,151
  1,205
  1,262
  1,322
  1,385
  1,451
  1,522
  1,596
  1,673
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.035
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.673
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  36
  35
  35
  36
  38
  42
  46
  52
  59
  68
  77
  88
  100
  113
  128
  144
  162
  181
  202
  224
  248
  275
  303
  333
  365
  399
  436
  475
  517
  562
  609
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
Funds from operations, $m
  96
  55
  56
  57
  60
  64
  70
  76
  84
  94
  104
  116
  129
  144
  160
  177
  196
  217
  239
  264
  290
  318
  348
  380
  414
  451
  490
  532
  577
  624
  675
Change in working capital, $m
  17
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
Cash from operations, $m
  79
  54
  54
  56
  58
  62
  67
  74
  82
  91
  101
  113
  126
  140
  156
  173
  192
  212
  234
  258
  284
  312
  342
  373
  407
  444
  483
  524
  568
  615
  666
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
New CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -16
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -111
Free cash flow, $m
  63
  27
  26
  26
  27
  30
  33
  38
  44
  51
  59
  69
  79
  91
  105
  120
  136
  153
  173
  193
  216
  240
  266
  295
  325
  357
  392
  428
  468
  510
  555
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -28
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -37
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  25
  31
  30
  31
  32
  35
  39
  44
  51
  58
  67
  77
  89
  101
  115
  131
  148
  166
  186
  208
  231
  256
  283
  312
  343
  376
  412
  450
  490
  534
  580
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -9
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  55
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  79
  22
  21
  22
  24
  27
  31
  36
  42
  50
  59
  69
  80
  93
  107
  123
  139
  158
  178
  200
  223
  248
  275
  304
  336
  369
  405
  443
  484
  527
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  76
  20
  19
  18
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  31
  31
  31
  30
  29
  27
  25
  23
  21
  18
  16
  13
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
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Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. is an interior design company. The Company is a manufacturer and retailer of home furnishings. The Company operates through two segments, which include wholesale and retail. The Company is an international home fashion brand doing business in North America, Europe, Asia and the Middle East. It offers complimentary interior design service to its clients and sells a range of furniture products and decorative accents through ethanallen.com and a network of design centers in the United States and abroad. Its wholesale segment, principally involved in the development of the Ethan Allen brand, encompasses various aspects of design, manufacture, sourcing, sale, and distribution of its range of home furnishings and accents. The Company's retail segment sells home furnishings and accents to consumers through a network of Company-operated design centers. As of June 30, 2016, the Company owned and operated nine manufacturing facilities.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ethan Allen Interiors (ETH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.7
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -21.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 19
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 2.7%
Total Debt to Equity 3.5%
Interest Coverage 58
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Return On Total Capital 8.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Return On Equity 9.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 55%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.1%
EBITDA Margin 10.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Operating Margin 7.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Net Profit Margin 4.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Effective Tax Rate 36.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.7%
Payout Ratio 55.6%

ETH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ETH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $763 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ethan Allen Interiors. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Ethan Allen Interiors. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ETH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ETH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ethan Allen Interiors, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ethan Allen Interiors.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ETH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 17.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $578 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ETH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.6% for Ethan Allen Interiors.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ethan Allen Interiors. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ETH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ETH are equal to 41.5%.

Life of production assets of 15.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ethan Allen Interiors operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ETH is equal to 8.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $401 million for Ethan Allen Interiors - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.471 million for Ethan Allen Interiors is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ethan Allen Interiors at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Ethan Allen CEO on Amazon partnership   [Nov-24-17 11:19AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Should You Buy Ethan Allen Interiors Inc (ETH)?   [Nov-23-17 02:21PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Bitcoin's Price Slips Below $7,000   [Nov-06-17 02:39PM  Coindesk]
▶ Ethan Allen matches Street 1Q forecasts   [06:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ Bitcoin Isn't Tulips   [Oct-14-17 04:59PM  Forbes]
▶ Back Above $300: Is Ether Building Momentum?   [Oct-10-17 11:35AM  Coindesk]
▶ Furniture Stores Show September Stock Gains   [Oct-09-17 05:17PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ethan Allen misses 4Q profit forecasts   [Jul-28-17 01:39AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ethan Allen Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [09:43AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for June 15th   [Jun-15-17 08:35AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for June 5th   [Jun-05-17 10:56AM  Zacks]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [Apr-27-17 11:56AM  Briefing.com]
▶ Ethan Allen misses Street 3Q forecasts   [Apr-26-17 05:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ethan Allen Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Apr-25-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Ethan Allen Announces Launch on Amazon   [Apr-04-17 09:01AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Ethan Allen | Disney Collection Launches on DisneyStore.com   [Mar-31-17 03:58PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Retailers Face Cost Squeeze with Rising Rates   [Mar-23-17 06:09PM  Investopedia]
▶ 5 Top Small-Cap Stock Picks You Can Buy in March   [Mar-04-17 07:01PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. Stock Fell 12%   [Jan-26-17 06:05PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Ethan Allen Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [08:17AM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of ETH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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