Intrinsic value of Entercom Communications Cl A - ETM

Previous Close

$10.05

  Intrinsic Value

$7.38

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-27%

  Value-price divergence*

+172%

Previous close

$10.05

 
Intrinsic value

$7.38

 
Up/down potential

-27%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+172%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ETM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.92
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  460
  469
  480
  492
  506
  522
  538
  557
  577
  598
  621
  645
  672
  700
  729
  761
  794
  829
  867
  906
  948
  991
  1,038
  1,087
  1,138
  1,192
  1,249
  1,309
  1,373
  1,439
  1,509
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  372
  380
  390
  401
  413
  426
  441
  456
  473
  491
  507
  528
  550
  573
  598
  624
  652
  681
  712
  745
  779
  816
  854
  894
  937
  982
  1,029
  1,079
  1,131
  1,186
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  373
  372
  380
  390
  401
  413
  426
  441
  456
  473
  491
  507
  528
  550
  573
  598
  624
  652
  681
  712
  745
  779
  816
  854
  894
  937
  982
  1,029
  1,079
  1,131
  1,186
Operating income, $m
  87
  97
  100
  102
  105
  108
  112
  116
  120
  125
  130
  138
  144
  150
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  233
  244
  255
  268
  280
  294
  308
  323
EBITDA, $m
  97
  129
  132
  136
  140
  144
  148
  153
  159
  165
  171
  178
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  229
  239
  250
  261
  273
  286
  300
  314
  329
  344
  361
  378
  397
  416
Interest expense (income), $m
  35
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
Earnings before tax, $m
  53
  63
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  79
  81
  88
  91
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
Tax expense, $m
  15
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  46
  49
  51
Net income, $m
  38
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  54
  56
  57
  59
  64
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  47
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,076
  1,050
  1,074
  1,101
  1,132
  1,167
  1,204
  1,245
  1,290
  1,338
  1,389
  1,444
  1,502
  1,565
  1,631
  1,702
  1,776
  1,855
  1,939
  2,027
  2,120
  2,218
  2,322
  2,431
  2,546
  2,667
  2,795
  2,929
  3,071
  3,219
  3,376
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,029
  1,050
  1,074
  1,101
  1,132
  1,167
  1,204
  1,245
  1,290
  1,338
  1,389
  1,444
  1,502
  1,565
  1,631
  1,702
  1,776
  1,855
  1,939
  2,027
  2,120
  2,218
  2,322
  2,431
  2,546
  2,667
  2,795
  2,929
  3,071
  3,219
  3,376
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
Average production assets, $m
  849
  866
  886
  908
  934
  962
  993
  1,027
  1,064
  1,103
  1,146
  1,191
  1,239
  1,291
  1,345
  1,403
  1,465
  1,530
  1,599
  1,671
  1,748
  1,829
  1,915
  2,005
  2,100
  2,200
  2,305
  2,416
  2,532
  2,655
  2,784
Working capital, $m
  79
  38
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
Total debt, $m
  472
  480
  496
  513
  533
  554
  578
  604
  632
  662
  695
  730
  767
  806
  848
  892
  940
  989
  1,042
  1,098
  1,157
  1,219
  1,284
  1,353
  1,426
  1,503
  1,583
  1,668
  1,758
  1,852
  1,950
Total liabilities, $m
  655
  663
  679
  696
  716
  737
  761
  787
  815
  845
  878
  913
  950
  989
  1,031
  1,075
  1,123
  1,172
  1,225
  1,281
  1,340
  1,402
  1,467
  1,536
  1,609
  1,686
  1,766
  1,851
  1,941
  2,035
  2,133
Total equity, $m
  421
  386
  395
  405
  417
  429
  443
  458
  475
  492
  511
  531
  553
  576
  600
  626
  654
  683
  713
  746
  780
  816
  854
  895
  937
  982
  1,029
  1,078
  1,130
  1,185
  1,242
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,076
  1,049
  1,074
  1,101
  1,133
  1,166
  1,204
  1,245
  1,290
  1,337
  1,389
  1,444
  1,503
  1,565
  1,631
  1,701
  1,777
  1,855
  1,938
  2,027
  2,120
  2,218
  2,321
  2,431
  2,546
  2,668
  2,795
  2,929
  3,071
  3,220
  3,375
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.121
  1.240
  1.250
  1.270
  1.280
  1.290
  1.300
  1.320
  1.330
  1.350
  1.360
  1.370
  1.390
  1.400
  1.410
  1.430
  1.440
  1.450
  1.460
  1.470
  1.480
  1.490
  1.500
  1.510
  1.520
  1.530
  1.540
  1.550
  1.560
  1.560
  1.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.363
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  38
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  54
  56
  57
  59
  64
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  10
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  40
  41
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  84
  88
  93
Funds from operations, $m
  59
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  89
  91
  94
  97
  101
  104
  107
  112
  116
  121
  125
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
Change in working capital, $m
  -13
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
Cash from operations, $m
  72
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  90
  93
  96
  99
  102
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  172
  179
  188
  196
  205
  215
  224
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -188
  -198
  -207
  -217
Free cash flow, $m
  72
  32
  30
  28
  27
  25
  24
  23
  22
  21
  20
  18
  17
  17
  16
  15
  14
  14
  13
  13
  12
  12
  11
  10
  10
  9
  9
  8
  8
  7
  7
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -9
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -25
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  48
  45
  45
  46
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  71
  74
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  106
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -32
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  42
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  80
  37
  36
  35
  35
  34
  34
  34
  33
  33
  33
  33
  33
  33
  34
  34
  35
  35
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
Discount rate, %
 
  7.80
  8.19
  8.60
  9.03
  9.48
  9.95
  10.45
  10.98
  11.52
  12.10
  12.71
  13.34
  14.01
  14.71
  15.44
  16.22
  17.03
  17.88
  18.77
  19.71
  20.70
  21.73
  22.82
  23.96
  25.16
  26.41
  27.73
  29.12
  30.58
  32.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  74
  31
  28
  25
  22
  19
  17
  15
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Entercom Communications Corp. operates as a radio broadcasting company in the United States. The company owns and operates radio stations in various formats, such as news, talk, classic rock, adult contemporary, alternative, country, and others. As of July 21, 2016, its portfolio consisted of 124 radio stations in 27 markets. Entercom Communications Corp. was founded in 1968 and is based in Bala Cynwyd, Pennsylvania.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Entercom Communications Cl A (ETM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.8
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 6.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -92.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 9
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 110.9%
Total Debt to Equity 112.1%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Total Capital 4.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Return On Equity 9.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31%
EBITDA Margin 21.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.5%
Operating Margin 18.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Net Profit Margin 8.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Effective Tax Rate 28.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.8%
Payout Ratio 26.3%

ETM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ETM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $460 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Entercom Communications Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Entercom Communications Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ETM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.8%, whose default value for ETM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Entercom Communications Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Entercom Communications Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ETM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 79.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ETM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.3% for Entercom Communications Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Entercom Communications Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ETM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ETM are equal to 184.5%.

Life of production assets of 88.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Entercom Communications Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ETM is equal to 8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $421 million for Entercom Communications Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 40.225 million for Entercom Communications Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Entercom Communications Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
SGA Saga Communica 40.70 51.23  hold
SALM Salem Media Gr 6.65 2.41  str.sell
BBGI Beasley Broadc 9.20 1.81  str.sell
TSQ Townsquare Med 9.93 25.11  str.buy

COMPANY NEWS

▶ REPEAT/Gabelli & Companys Broadcasting Symposium   [Aug-02-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Entercom Communications posts 2Q profit   [Jul-28-17 11:42PM  Associated Press]
▶ Gabelli & Companys Broadcasting Symposium   [Jul-20-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Entercom Communications Corp. Announces Quarterly Dividend   [May-12-17 04:02PM  Business Wire]
▶ Entercom suffers $10M 1Q loss caused by rising costs from pending CBS merger   [May-08-17 01:20PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Entercom Communications posts 1Q loss   [08:40AM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for May 3rd   [May-03-17 09:30AM  Zacks]
▶ Entercom to shed 14 stations as part of CBS Radio deal   [Mar-23-17 08:35AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Entercom to shed 14 stations as part of CBS Radio deal   [08:35AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Entercom Communications posts 4Q profit   [07:25AM  Associated Press]
▶ CBS Cancels Radio IPO   [12:26PM  at Forbes]
▶ CBS Radio to merge into Entercom   [Feb-06-17 07:58AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Entercom-CBS Radio deal's big connection to Chicago   [04:15PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Entercom and CBS Radio to Merge   [03:04PM  at Investopedia]
▶ KMOX parent CBS Radio merging with Entercom   [12:00PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ [$$] Entercom Strikes a Deal to Buy CBS Radio   [08:50AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Is Entercom Communications Corp. (ETM) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-09-16 02:23PM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of ETM Financial statements of ETM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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