Intrinsic value of Eaton Vance - EV

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$46.97

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as EV.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -4.34
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,343
  1,370
  1,401
  1,437
  1,478
  1,523
  1,572
  1,625
  1,683
  1,746
  1,813
  1,884
  1,961
  2,042
  2,129
  2,221
  2,318
  2,421
  2,530
  2,645
  2,767
  2,895
  3,030
  3,173
  3,323
  3,481
  3,647
  3,823
  4,007
  4,201
  4,405
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  978
  999
  1,025
  1,053
  1,084
  1,118
  1,155
  1,196
  1,239
  1,286
  1,311
  1,364
  1,420
  1,481
  1,545
  1,612
  1,684
  1,760
  1,840
  1,924
  2,013
  2,107
  2,207
  2,311
  2,421
  2,537
  2,659
  2,787
  2,922
  3,064
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  929
  978
  999
  1,025
  1,053
  1,084
  1,118
  1,155
  1,196
  1,239
  1,286
  1,311
  1,364
  1,420
  1,481
  1,545
  1,612
  1,684
  1,760
  1,840
  1,924
  2,013
  2,107
  2,207
  2,311
  2,421
  2,537
  2,659
  2,787
  2,922
  3,064
Operating income, $m
  414
  392
  402
  413
  425
  439
  454
  470
  488
  507
  527
  574
  597
  622
  648
  676
  706
  737
  770
  805
  842
  881
  923
  966
  1,012
  1,060
  1,111
  1,164
  1,220
  1,279
  1,341
EBITDA, $m
  435
  422
  432
  443
  455
  469
  484
  501
  519
  538
  558
  581
  604
  629
  656
  684
  714
  746
  779
  815
  852
  892
  934
  977
  1,024
  1,072
  1,124
  1,178
  1,235
  1,294
  1,357
Interest expense (income), $m
  28
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
Earnings before tax, $m
  408
  372
  381
  391
  402
  414
  428
  443
  459
  477
  495
  540
  561
  584
  608
  634
  661
  690
  720
  752
  786
  822
  859
  899
  941
  985
  1,031
  1,080
  1,131
  1,185
  1,242
Tax expense, $m
  154
  100
  103
  105
  109
  112
  116
  120
  124
  129
  134
  146
  152
  158
  164
  171
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  254
  266
  278
  292
  305
  320
  335
Net income, $m
  241
  271
  278
  285
  293
  303
  313
  323
  335
  348
  362
  394
  410
  426
  444
  463
  482
  503
  526
  549
  574
  600
  627
  656
  687
  719
  753
  788
  826
  865
  907

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  424
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,730
  1,333
  1,363
  1,398
  1,438
  1,481
  1,529
  1,581
  1,637
  1,698
  1,763
  1,833
  1,907
  1,987
  2,071
  2,160
  2,255
  2,355
  2,461
  2,573
  2,691
  2,816
  2,947
  3,086
  3,232
  3,386
  3,548
  3,719
  3,898
  4,087
  4,285
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,306
  1,333
  1,363
  1,398
  1,438
  1,481
  1,529
  1,581
  1,637
  1,698
  1,763
  1,833
  1,907
  1,987
  2,071
  2,160
  2,255
  2,355
  2,461
  2,573
  2,691
  2,816
  2,947
  3,086
  3,232
  3,386
  3,548
  3,719
  3,898
  4,087
  4,285
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
Average production assets, $m
  74
  75
  77
  79
  81
  84
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  167
  174
  183
  191
  201
  210
  220
  231
  242
Working capital, $m
  0
  -433
  -443
  -454
  -467
  -481
  -497
  -514
  -532
  -552
  -573
  -595
  -620
  -645
  -673
  -702
  -732
  -765
  -799
  -836
  -874
  -915
  -957
  -1,003
  -1,050
  -1,100
  -1,153
  -1,208
  -1,266
  -1,328
  -1,392
Total debt, $m
  572
  593
  617
  645
  676
  710
  748
  789
  833
  881
  932
  987
  1,045
  1,107
  1,174
  1,244
  1,318
  1,397
  1,480
  1,568
  1,661
  1,759
  1,863
  1,972
  2,087
  2,207
  2,335
  2,469
  2,610
  2,758
  2,914
Total liabilities, $m
  1,027
  1,047
  1,071
  1,099
  1,130
  1,164
  1,202
  1,243
  1,287
  1,335
  1,386
  1,441
  1,499
  1,561
  1,628
  1,698
  1,772
  1,851
  1,934
  2,022
  2,115
  2,213
  2,317
  2,426
  2,541
  2,661
  2,789
  2,923
  3,064
  3,212
  3,368
Total equity, $m
  704
  285
  292
  299
  308
  317
  327
  338
  350
  363
  377
  392
  408
  425
  443
  462
  483
  504
  527
  551
  576
  603
  631
  660
  692
  725
  759
  796
  834
  875
  917
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,731
  1,332
  1,363
  1,398
  1,438
  1,481
  1,529
  1,581
  1,637
  1,698
  1,763
  1,833
  1,907
  1,986
  2,071
  2,160
  2,255
  2,355
  2,461
  2,573
  2,691
  2,816
  2,948
  3,086
  3,233
  3,386
  3,548
  3,719
  3,898
  4,087
  4,285
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.813
  2.080
  2.120
  2.160
  2.200
  2.240
  2.290
  2.330
  2.380
  2.420
  2.470
  2.520
  2.560
  2.610
  2.650
  2.690
  2.730
  2.770
  2.810
  2.850
  2.880
  2.920
  2.950
  2.990
  3.020
  3.050
  3.070
  3.100
  3.130
  3.150
  3.180
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  241
  271
  278
  285
  293
  303
  313
  323
  335
  348
  362
  394
  410
  426
  444
  463
  482
  503
  526
  549
  574
  600
  627
  656
  687
  719
  753
  788
  826
  865
  907
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  21
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  31
  31
  31
  31
  31
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
Funds from operations, $m
  293
  301
  308
  315
  324
  333
  343
  354
  366
  379
  393
  401
  417
  434
  452
  471
  491
  512
  535
  559
  584
  610
  638
  668
  699
  732
  766
  802
  840
  880
  923
Change in working capital, $m
  -48
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
Cash from operations, $m
  341
  283
  318
  327
  336
  347
  359
  371
  385
  399
  414
  424
  441
  460
  479
  500
  522
  545
  569
  595
  622
  651
  681
  713
  746
  781
  819
  858
  899
  942
  987
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
New CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -108
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -26
Free cash flow, $m
  233
  276
  311
  319
  329
  339
  350
  362
  375
  389
  404
  413
  430
  448
  467
  487
  508
  531
  554
  579
  606
  634
  663
  694
  726
  761
  797
  835
  875
  917
  961
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  21
  24
  28
  31
  34
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
  156
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -142
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -151
  21
  24
  28
  31
  34
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
  156
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  78
  298
  335
  347
  360
  373
  388
  403
  420
  437
  455
  468
  489
  510
  533
  557
  583
  609
  638
  667
  699
  732
  766
  803
  841
  882
  924
  969
  1,016
  1,065
  1,117
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -84
  -5
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  424
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  717
  328
  340
  351
  364
  378
  392
  408
  424
  441
  453
  473
  493
  515
  538
  562
  588
  615
  643
  673
  705
  738
  773
  810
  849
  889
  932
  977
  1,025
  1,074
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  687
  301
  295
  289
  282
  274
  265
  255
  244
  231
  215
  202
  188
  173
  158
  143
  128
  113
  99
  86
  73
  61
  51
  41
  33
  26
  20
  15
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Eaton Vance Corp., through its subsidiaries, engages in the creation, marketing, and management of investment funds in the United States. It also provides investment management and counseling services to institutions and individuals. Further, the company operates as an adviser and distributor of investment companies and separate accounts. As of October 31, 2004, the company provided investment advisory or administration services to approximately 150 funds; approximately 1,300 separately managed individual and institutional accounts; and participated in approximately 40 retail-managed account broker/dealer programs. It markets and distributes shares of funds through a retail network of national and regional broker/dealers, banks, insurance companies, and financial planning firms. Eaton Vance Corp. was founded in 1944 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Eaton Vance (EV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.2
Price to Sales 4
Price to Book 7.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 81.3%
Total Debt to Equity 81.3%
Interest Coverage 16
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Return On Total Capital 16.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.1%
Return On Equity 36.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.5%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 83.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 81.4%
EBITDA Margin 34%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.7%
Operating Margin 30.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 30.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.2%
Net Profit Margin 17.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.4%
Effective Tax Rate 37.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.2%
Payout Ratio 49.4%

EV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1343 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Eaton Vance. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Eaton Vance. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Eaton Vance, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Eaton Vance.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.6% for Eaton Vance.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Eaton Vance. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EV are equal to 5.5%.

Life of production assets of 15.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Eaton Vance operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EV is equal to -31.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $704 million for Eaton Vance - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 112.974 million for Eaton Vance is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Eaton Vance at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.3 billion.


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Stock chart of EV Financial statements of EV Annual reports of EV
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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