Intrinsic value of Enviva Partners - EVA

Previous Close

$28.70

  Intrinsic Value

$2.30

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-92%

  Value-price divergence*

-35%

Previous close

$28.70

 
Intrinsic value

$2.30

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-35%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EVA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.53
  14.00
  13.10
  12.29
  11.56
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.49
  8.14
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.22
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
Revenue, $m
  464
  529
  598
  672
  749
  831
  917
  1,007
  1,100
  1,198
  1,300
  1,405
  1,515
  1,630
  1,748
  1,872
  2,000
  2,133
  2,272
  2,416
  2,567
  2,723
  2,886
  3,056
  3,233
  3,418
  3,611
  3,812
  4,023
  4,243
  4,473
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  453
  511
  573
  638
  706
  778
  854
  932
  1,014
  1,100
  1,180
  1,272
  1,368
  1,468
  1,571
  1,679
  1,791
  1,907
  2,028
  2,155
  2,286
  2,423
  2,565
  2,714
  2,869
  3,031
  3,200
  3,377
  3,562
  3,755
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  35
  36
  37
  38
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  54
  56
  57
  59
  60
  61
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  71
Total operating expenses, $m
  431
  488
  547
  610
  676
  744
  817
  894
  973
  1,056
  1,144
  1,225
  1,318
  1,415
  1,516
  1,620
  1,729
  1,843
  1,960
  2,082
  2,211
  2,343
  2,482
  2,625
  2,775
  2,932
  3,096
  3,266
  3,445
  3,632
  3,826
Operating income, $m
  34
  41
  52
  63
  74
  86
  99
  113
  127
  141
  157
  181
  198
  215
  233
  251
  271
  291
  312
  334
  356
  380
  405
  431
  458
  486
  515
  546
  578
  612
  647
EBITDA, $m
  62
  77
  91
  106
  121
  138
  155
  173
  192
  212
  232
  253
  276
  299
  323
  348
  374
  401
  429
  458
  489
  520
  554
  588
  624
  662
  701
  742
  785
  830
  877
Interest expense (income), $m
  11
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  37
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  100
  107
  113
  119
  126
  134
  141
  149
Earnings before tax, $m
  18
  27
  35
  44
  53
  62
  72
  82
  93
  105
  116
  137
  150
  163
  177
  191
  206
  222
  238
  255
  273
  291
  310
  330
  351
  373
  396
  419
  444
  471
  498
Tax expense, $m
  0
  7
  10
  12
  14
  17
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  37
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  101
  107
  113
  120
  127
  134
Net income, $m
  21
  20
  26
  32
  38
  45
  53
  60
  68
  76
  85
  100
  109
  119
  129
  140
  151
  162
  174
  186
  199
  212
  226
  241
  256
  272
  289
  306
  324
  343
  363

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  726
  828
  936
  1,051
  1,173
  1,301
  1,435
  1,575
  1,722
  1,875
  2,034
  2,199
  2,371
  2,550
  2,736
  2,929
  3,130
  3,339
  3,556
  3,781
  4,016
  4,261
  4,516
  4,782
  5,059
  5,349
  5,651
  5,966
  6,296
  6,640
  7,000
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  726
  828
  936
  1,051
  1,173
  1,301
  1,435
  1,575
  1,722
  1,875
  2,034
  2,199
  2,371
  2,550
  2,736
  2,929
  3,130
  3,339
  3,556
  3,781
  4,016
  4,261
  4,516
  4,782
  5,059
  5,349
  5,651
  5,966
  6,296
  6,640
  7,000
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
Average production assets, $m
  507
  578
  654
  734
  819
  908
  1,002
  1,100
  1,203
  1,309
  1,420
  1,536
  1,656
  1,781
  1,911
  2,046
  2,186
  2,332
  2,483
  2,641
  2,805
  2,976
  3,154
  3,340
  3,534
  3,736
  3,947
  4,167
  4,397
  4,638
  4,889
Working capital, $m
  53
  65
  74
  83
  92
  102
  113
  124
  135
  147
  160
  173
  186
  200
  215
  230
  246
  262
  279
  297
  316
  335
  355
  376
  398
  420
  444
  469
  495
  522
  550
Total debt, $m
  351
  409
  471
  536
  606
  678
  755
  835
  918
  1,006
  1,096
  1,191
  1,289
  1,391
  1,497
  1,607
  1,721
  1,840
  1,964
  2,092
  2,226
  2,366
  2,511
  2,663
  2,821
  2,986
  3,158
  3,338
  3,525
  3,722
  3,927
Total liabilities, $m
  414
  472
  534
  599
  669
  741
  818
  898
  981
  1,069
  1,159
  1,254
  1,352
  1,454
  1,560
  1,670
  1,784
  1,903
  2,027
  2,155
  2,289
  2,429
  2,574
  2,726
  2,884
  3,049
  3,221
  3,401
  3,588
  3,785
  3,990
Total equity, $m
  312
  356
  403
  452
  504
  559
  617
  677
  740
  806
  875
  946
  1,020
  1,097
  1,176
  1,260
  1,346
  1,436
  1,529
  1,626
  1,727
  1,832
  1,942
  2,056
  2,176
  2,300
  2,430
  2,565
  2,707
  2,855
  3,010
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  726
  828
  937
  1,051
  1,173
  1,300
  1,435
  1,575
  1,721
  1,875
  2,034
  2,200
  2,372
  2,551
  2,736
  2,930
  3,130
  3,339
  3,556
  3,781
  4,016
  4,261
  4,516
  4,782
  5,060
  5,349
  5,651
  5,966
  6,295
  6,640
  7,000
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.125
  1.150
  1.170
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.260
  1.260
  1.270
  1.270
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.300
  1.300
  1.300
  1.300
  1.300
  1.300
  1.300
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  21
  20
  26
  32
  38
  45
  53
  60
  68
  76
  85
  100
  109
  119
  129
  140
  151
  162
  174
  186
  199
  212
  226
  241
  256
  272
  289
  306
  324
  343
  363
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  28
  36
  39
  43
  47
  51
  56
  60
  65
  70
  76
  72
  78
  84
  90
  97
  103
  110
  117
  125
  132
  140
  149
  158
  167
  176
  186
  197
  207
  219
  231
Funds from operations, $m
  44
  56
  65
  75
  86
  97
  108
  121
  133
  147
  160
  173
  188
  203
  219
  236
  254
  272
  291
  311
  331
  353
  375
  399
  423
  448
  475
  503
  532
  562
  594
Change in working capital, $m
  -13
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
Cash from operations, $m
  57
  48
  57
  66
  76
  87
  98
  110
  122
  135
  148
  160
  174
  189
  205
  221
  238
  256
  274
  293
  313
  334
  355
  378
  401
  426
  451
  478
  506
  535
  566
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -97
  -103
  -110
  -117
  -125
  -132
  -140
  -149
  -158
  -167
  -176
  -186
  -197
  -207
  -219
New CAPEX, $m
  -71
  -71
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -186
  -194
  -202
  -211
  -220
  -230
  -241
  -252
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -69
  -95
  -103
  -111
  -120
  -128
  -137
  -145
  -154
  -164
  -173
  -183
  -192
  -203
  -214
  -225
  -237
  -249
  -262
  -275
  -289
  -303
  -318
  -335
  -352
  -369
  -387
  -406
  -427
  -448
  -471
Free cash flow, $m
  -12
  -47
  -46
  -45
  -43
  -41
  -39
  -36
  -32
  -29
  -25
  -23
  -19
  -14
  -9
  -4
  1
  7
  12
  18
  24
  30
  37
  43
  50
  57
  64
  72
  79
  87
  95
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  142
  58
  62
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  145
  152
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  196
  205
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  9
  24
  21
  18
  14
  10
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  155
  82
  83
  84
  83
  83
  81
  80
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  145
  152
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  196
  205
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  143
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  51
  58
  66
  71
  79
  88
  97
  106
  116
  126
  136
  147
  158
  170
  182
  195
  208
  222
  236
  251
  267
  284
  301
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  83
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -155
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -12
  -7
  -3
  0
  5
  11
  17
  23
  29
  36
  43
  50
  57
  65
  72
  80
  89
  97
  106
  116
  125
  135
  146
Discount rate, %
 
  8.20
  8.61
  9.04
  9.49
  9.97
  10.47
  10.99
  11.54
  12.12
  12.72
  13.36
  14.02
  14.73
  15.46
  16.24
  17.05
  17.90
  18.79
  19.73
  20.72
  21.76
  22.84
  23.99
  25.19
  26.45
  27.77
  29.16
  30.61
  32.15
  33.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -5
  -3
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  96.7
  94.3
  92.5
  91.3
  90.5
  90.1
  90.1
  90.1
  90.1
  90.1
  90.1
  90.1
  90.1
  90.1
  90.1
  90.1
  90.1
  90.1
  90.1
  90.1
  90.1
  90.1
  90.1
  90.1
  90.1
  90.1
  90.1
  90.1
  90.1
  90.1

Enviva Partners, LP produces and supplies utility-grade wood pellets to power generators. Enviva Partners GP, LLC operates as the general partner of the company. Enviva Partners, LP was founded in 2013 and is based in Bethesda, Maryland.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Enviva Partners (EVA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 34
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -51
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -7.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -10.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 111.2%
Total Debt to Equity 112.5%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Return On Total Capital 3.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Return On Equity 5.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 17%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
EBITDA Margin 12.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Operating Margin 7.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Net Profit Margin 4.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Payout Ratio 690.5%

EVA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EVA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $464 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Enviva Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Enviva Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EVA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.2%, whose default value for EVA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Enviva Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Enviva Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EVA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $34 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EVA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4% for Enviva Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Enviva Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EVA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EVA are equal to 109.3%.

Life of production assets of 21.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Enviva Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EVA is equal to 12.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $312 million for Enviva Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24.559 million for Enviva Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Enviva Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Enviva Partners posts 1Q profit   [May-10-17 07:28AM  Associated Press]
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Stock chart of EVA Financial statements of EVA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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