Intrinsic value of Enviva Partners - EVA

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$27.70

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EVA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.53
  57.60
  52.34
  47.61
  43.35
  39.51
  36.06
  32.95
  30.16
  27.64
  25.38
  23.34
  21.51
  19.86
  18.37
  17.03
  15.83
  14.75
  13.77
  12.89
  12.11
  11.39
  10.76
  10.18
  9.66
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.75
  7.48
Revenue, $m
  464
  720
  1,097
  1,620
  2,322
  3,239
  4,407
  5,859
  7,626
  9,734
  12,204
  15,052
  18,290
  21,921
  25,948
  30,368
  35,175
  40,363
  45,921
  51,843
  58,119
  64,742
  71,705
  79,004
  86,638
  94,604
  102,907
  111,550
  120,539
  129,884
  139,597
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  599
  907
  1,335
  1,910
  2,662
  3,618
  4,808
  6,256
  7,982
  10,006
  12,331
  14,983
  17,958
  21,256
  24,877
  28,815
  33,064
  37,618
  42,469
  47,610
  53,035
  58,739
  64,719
  70,972
  77,498
  84,300
  91,380
  98,744
  106,399
  114,355
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  66
  67
  69
  71
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
Total operating expenses, $m
  431
  639
  948
  1,377
  1,953
  2,706
  3,663
  4,854
  6,304
  8,031
  10,056
  12,382
  15,035
  18,012
  21,311
  24,933
  28,873
  33,123
  37,679
  42,531
  47,674
  53,101
  58,806
  64,788
  71,043
  77,570
  84,374
  91,456
  98,822
  106,479
  114,437
Operating income, $m
  34
  82
  149
  242
  368
  533
  743
  1,004
  1,323
  1,703
  2,148
  2,671
  3,255
  3,910
  4,637
  5,435
  6,302
  7,239
  8,243
  9,312
  10,445
  11,641
  12,898
  14,217
  15,595
  17,034
  18,533
  20,094
  21,718
  23,406
  25,160
EBITDA, $m
  62
  134
  223
  348
  516
  736
  1,016
  1,365
  1,789
  2,296
  2,890
  3,575
  4,353
  5,227
  6,196
  7,259
  8,416
  9,664
  11,001
  12,426
  13,937
  15,530
  17,206
  18,963
  20,800
  22,717
  24,716
  26,796
  28,959
  31,209
  33,546
Interest expense (income), $m
  11
  13
  23
  37
  57
  83
  117
  161
  215
  281
  360
  452
  558
  679
  815
  965
  1,130
  1,310
  1,504
  1,711
  1,932
  2,167
  2,414
  2,674
  2,947
  3,232
  3,529
  3,839
  4,162
  4,498
  4,847
Earnings before tax, $m
  18
  68
  126
  205
  311
  450
  626
  844
  1,108
  1,422
  1,788
  2,219
  2,696
  3,231
  3,822
  4,469
  5,172
  5,929
  6,739
  7,601
  8,513
  9,474
  10,484
  11,542
  12,648
  13,802
  15,004
  16,255
  17,556
  18,908
  20,313
Tax expense, $m
  0
  18
  34
  55
  84
  121
  169
  228
  299
  384
  483
  599
  728
  872
  1,032
  1,207
  1,396
  1,601
  1,820
  2,052
  2,298
  2,558
  2,831
  3,116
  3,415
  3,727
  4,051
  4,389
  4,740
  5,105
  5,485
Net income, $m
  21
  50
  92
  150
  227
  328
  457
  616
  809
  1,038
  1,306
  1,620
  1,968
  2,358
  2,790
  3,263
  3,776
  4,328
  4,919
  5,548
  6,214
  6,916
  7,654
  8,426
  9,233
  10,076
  10,953
  11,866
  12,816
  13,803
  14,828

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  726
  894
  1,361
  2,009
  2,880
  4,018
  5,467
  7,269
  9,461
  12,077
  15,141
  18,676
  22,692
  27,198
  32,194
  37,678
  43,642
  50,078
  56,975
  64,321
  72,108
  80,324
  88,964
  98,020
  107,491
  117,375
  127,676
  138,399
  149,552
  161,147
  173,197
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  726
  894
  1,361
  2,009
  2,880
  4,018
  5,467
  7,269
  9,461
  12,077
  15,141
  18,676
  22,692
  27,198
  32,194
  37,678
  43,642
  50,078
  56,975
  64,321
  72,108
  80,324
  88,964
  98,020
  107,491
  117,375
  127,676
  138,399
  149,552
  161,147
  173,197
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.639
  0.805
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
Average production assets, $m
  507
  571
  870
  1,284
  1,841
  2,568
  3,495
  4,646
  6,047
  7,719
  9,678
  11,937
  14,504
  17,384
  20,577
  24,082
  27,894
  32,008
  36,416
  41,112
  46,088
  51,340
  56,862
  62,650
  68,704
  75,021
  81,605
  88,459
  95,588
  102,998
  110,700
Working capital, $m
  53
  49
  75
  110
  158
  220
  300
  398
  519
  662
  830
  1,024
  1,244
  1,491
  1,764
  2,065
  2,392
  2,745
  3,123
  3,525
  3,952
  4,402
  4,876
  5,372
  5,891
  6,433
  6,998
  7,585
  8,197
  8,832
  9,493
Total debt, $m
  351
  331
  532
  811
  1,186
  1,675
  2,298
  3,073
  4,015
  5,140
  6,458
  7,977
  9,705
  11,642
  13,790
  16,148
  18,713
  21,480
  24,446
  27,605
  30,953
  34,487
  38,201
  42,096
  46,168
  50,418
  54,848
  59,459
  64,255
  69,240
  74,422
Total liabilities, $m
  414
  384
  585
  864
  1,239
  1,728
  2,351
  3,126
  4,068
  5,193
  6,511
  8,030
  9,758
  11,695
  13,843
  16,201
  18,766
  21,533
  24,499
  27,658
  31,006
  34,540
  38,254
  42,149
  46,221
  50,471
  54,901
  59,512
  64,308
  69,293
  74,475
Total equity, $m
  312
  509
  776
  1,145
  1,642
  2,290
  3,116
  4,143
  5,393
  6,884
  8,631
  10,645
  12,934
  15,503
  18,351
  21,476
  24,876
  28,544
  32,475
  36,663
  41,101
  45,785
  50,709
  55,871
  61,270
  66,904
  72,775
  78,888
  85,245
  91,854
  98,722
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  726
  893
  1,361
  2,009
  2,881
  4,018
  5,467
  7,269
  9,461
  12,077
  15,142
  18,675
  22,692
  27,198
  32,194
  37,677
  43,642
  50,077
  56,974
  64,321
  72,107
  80,325
  88,963
  98,020
  107,491
  117,375
  127,676
  138,400
  149,553
  161,147
  173,197
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.125
  0.650
  0.690
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.430
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  21
  50
  92
  150
  227
  328
  457
  616
  809
  1,038
  1,306
  1,620
  1,968
  2,358
  2,790
  3,263
  3,776
  4,328
  4,919
  5,548
  6,214
  6,916
  7,654
  8,426
  9,233
  10,076
  10,953
  11,866
  12,816
  13,803
  14,828
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  28
  52
  75
  106
  148
  203
  273
  361
  467
  593
  742
  904
  1,099
  1,317
  1,559
  1,824
  2,113
  2,425
  2,759
  3,115
  3,492
  3,889
  4,308
  4,746
  5,205
  5,683
  6,182
  6,701
  7,241
  7,803
  8,386
Funds from operations, $m
  44
  102
  166
  256
  375
  532
  730
  976
  1,275
  1,631
  2,047
  2,524
  3,067
  3,675
  4,349
  5,087
  5,889
  6,753
  7,678
  8,663
  9,706
  10,806
  11,961
  13,172
  14,438
  15,759
  17,135
  18,568
  20,057
  21,606
  23,215
Change in working capital, $m
  -13
  18
  26
  36
  48
  62
  79
  99
  120
  143
  168
  194
  220
  247
  274
  301
  327
  353
  378
  403
  427
  450
  473
  496
  519
  542
  565
  588
  611
  635
  660
Cash from operations, $m
  57
  129
  141
  220
  328
  469
  651
  878
  1,155
  1,488
  1,879
  2,330
  2,847
  3,428
  4,075
  4,786
  5,562
  6,400
  7,300
  8,260
  9,279
  10,355
  11,488
  12,676
  13,919
  15,217
  16,571
  17,980
  19,446
  20,970
  22,554
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -27
  -43
  -66
  -97
  -139
  -195
  -265
  -352
  -458
  -585
  -733
  -904
  -1,099
  -1,317
  -1,559
  -1,824
  -2,113
  -2,425
  -2,759
  -3,115
  -3,492
  -3,889
  -4,308
  -4,746
  -5,205
  -5,683
  -6,182
  -6,701
  -7,241
  -7,803
New CAPEX, $m
  -71
  -209
  -299
  -414
  -557
  -727
  -926
  -1,152
  -1,401
  -1,672
  -1,959
  -2,259
  -2,567
  -2,880
  -3,193
  -3,505
  -3,812
  -4,114
  -4,408
  -4,696
  -4,977
  -5,252
  -5,522
  -5,788
  -6,053
  -6,318
  -6,584
  -6,854
  -7,129
  -7,411
  -7,702
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -69
  -236
  -342
  -480
  -654
  -866
  -1,121
  -1,417
  -1,753
  -2,130
  -2,544
  -2,992
  -3,471
  -3,979
  -4,510
  -5,064
  -5,636
  -6,227
  -6,833
  -7,455
  -8,092
  -8,744
  -9,411
  -10,096
  -10,799
  -11,523
  -12,267
  -13,036
  -13,830
  -14,652
  -15,505
Free cash flow, $m
  -12
  -107
  -202
  -260
  -326
  -398
  -470
  -539
  -598
  -642
  -664
  -662
  -625
  -550
  -435
  -277
  -75
  174
  467
  806
  1,188
  1,612
  2,077
  2,580
  3,120
  3,695
  4,303
  4,944
  5,616
  6,318
  7,050
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  142
  140
  201
  279
  375
  489
  623
  775
  943
  1,125
  1,318
  1,520
  1,727
  1,937
  2,148
  2,358
  2,565
  2,767
  2,966
  3,159
  3,348
  3,533
  3,715
  3,894
  4,072
  4,250
  4,429
  4,611
  4,796
  4,986
  5,181
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  9
  153
  267
  351
  448
  557
  673
  791
  905
  1,008
  1,093
  1,157
  1,187
  1,181
  1,135
  1,045
  910
  727
  498
  223
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  155
  293
  468
  630
  823
  1,046
  1,296
  1,566
  1,848
  2,133
  2,411
  2,677
  2,914
  3,118
  3,283
  3,403
  3,475
  3,494
  3,464
  3,382
  3,348
  3,533
  3,715
  3,894
  4,072
  4,250
  4,429
  4,611
  4,796
  4,986
  5,181
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  143
  33
  0
  19
  48
  92
  153
  236
  345
  483
  654
  858
  1,103
  1,387
  1,713
  2,081
  2,490
  2,941
  3,433
  3,965
  4,536
  5,145
  5,791
  6,474
  7,192
  7,945
  8,733
  9,555
  10,412
  11,304
  12,231
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  83
  -186
  -267
  -369
  -496
  -649
  -826
  -1,027
  -1,250
  -1,491
  -1,747
  -2,014
  -2,289
  -2,568
  -2,848
  -3,126
  -3,400
  -3,668
  -3,931
  -4,188
  -4,438
  -4,683
  -4,924
  -5,162
  -5,398
  -5,634
  -5,872
  -6,112
  -6,357
  -6,609
  -6,868
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  98
  462
  867
  1,312
  1,794
  2,311
  2,861
  3,443
  4,054
  4,695
  5,363
Discount rate, %
 
  6.10
  6.41
  6.73
  7.06
  7.41
  7.79
  8.17
  8.58
  9.01
  9.46
  9.94
  10.43
  10.95
  11.50
  12.08
  12.68
  13.32
  13.98
  14.68
  15.41
  16.19
  16.99
  17.84
  18.74
  19.67
  20.66
  21.69
  22.77
  23.91
  25.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  6
  20
  27
  30
  29
  26
  22
  17
  13
  9
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  81.6
  65.4
  53.8
  45.4
  39.1
  34.3
  30.6
  27.7
  25.5
  23.7
  22.3
  21.2
  20.3
  19.6
  19.1
  18.7
  18.4
  18.3
  18.2
  18.2
  18.2
  18.2
  18.2
  18.2
  18.2
  18.2
  18.2
  18.2
  18.2
  18.2

Enviva Partners, LP produces and supplies utility-grade wood pellets to power generators. Enviva Partners GP, LLC operates as the general partner of the company. Enviva Partners, LP was founded in 2013 and is based in Bethesda, Maryland.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Enviva Partners (EVA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32.8
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -49.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -7.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -10.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 111.2%
Total Debt to Equity 112.5%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Return On Total Capital 3.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Return On Equity 5.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 17%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
EBITDA Margin 12.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Operating Margin 7.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Net Profit Margin 4.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Payout Ratio 690.5%

EVA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EVA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $457 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Enviva Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Enviva Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EVA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 57.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.1%, whose default value for EVA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Enviva Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Enviva Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EVA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $39 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EVA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7% for Enviva Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Enviva Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EVA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EVA are equal to 79.3%.

Life of production assets of 13.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Enviva Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EVA is equal to 6.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $323 million for Enviva Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24.559 million for Enviva Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Enviva Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.


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