Intrinsic value of Evercore Partners Cl A - EVR

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$78.35

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$78.35

 
Intrinsic value

$200.34

 
Up/down potential

+156%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as EVR.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EVR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.50
  9.50
  9.05
  8.64
  8.28
  7.95
  7.66
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
  6.03
  5.93
  5.83
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
Revenue, $m
  1,457
  1,595
  1,740
  1,890
  2,047
  2,209
  2,379
  2,554
  2,737
  2,927
  3,124
  3,330
  3,543
  3,765
  3,997
  4,238
  4,489
  4,751
  5,024
  5,309
  5,607
  5,918
  6,243
  6,583
  6,938
  7,310
  7,699
  8,106
  8,533
  8,980
  9,448
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  616
  670
  727
  786
  847
  910
  976
  1,045
  1,117
  1,191
  1,252
  1,332
  1,416
  1,503
  1,593
  1,688
  1,786
  1,889
  1,996
  2,108
  2,225
  2,347
  2,475
  2,608
  2,748
  2,894
  3,048
  3,208
  3,376
  3,552
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  664
  681
  698
  715
  733
  751
  770
  790
  809
  829
  850
  871
  893
  916
  938
  962
  986
  1,011
  1,036
  1,062
  1,088
  1,116
  1,143
  1,172
  1,201
  1,231
  1,262
  1,294
  1,326
  1,359
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,196
  1,280
  1,351
  1,425
  1,501
  1,580
  1,661
  1,746
  1,835
  1,926
  2,020
  2,102
  2,203
  2,309
  2,419
  2,531
  2,650
  2,772
  2,900
  3,032
  3,170
  3,313
  3,463
  3,618
  3,780
  3,949
  4,125
  4,310
  4,502
  4,702
  4,911
Operating income, $m
  261
  315
  389
  466
  546
  630
  717
  808
  903
  1,001
  1,104
  1,228
  1,340
  1,457
  1,579
  1,706
  1,839
  1,979
  2,125
  2,277
  2,437
  2,605
  2,780
  2,964
  3,158
  3,360
  3,573
  3,797
  4,031
  4,278
  4,537
EBITDA, $m
  286
  341
  415
  493
  574
  659
  747
  839
  935
  1,035
  1,139
  1,247
  1,360
  1,479
  1,602
  1,731
  1,866
  2,007
  2,154
  2,308
  2,470
  2,639
  2,817
  3,003
  3,198
  3,403
  3,618
  3,844
  4,081
  4,330
  4,592
Interest expense (income), $m
  14
  13
  5
  11
  18
  25
  32
  39
  47
  55
  63
  72
  81
  90
  99
  110
  120
  131
  142
  154
  167
  180
  193
  207
  222
  238
  254
  271
  288
  307
  326
Earnings before tax, $m
  268
  302
  384
  454
  528
  605
  685
  769
  856
  947
  1,041
  1,156
  1,259
  1,367
  1,479
  1,597
  1,719
  1,848
  1,982
  2,123
  2,270
  2,425
  2,587
  2,757
  2,936
  3,123
  3,319
  3,526
  3,743
  3,971
  4,210
Tax expense, $m
  119
  82
  104
  123
  143
  163
  185
  208
  231
  256
  281
  312
  340
  369
  399
  431
  464
  499
  535
  573
  613
  655
  699
  744
  793
  843
  896
  952
  1,011
  1,072
  1,137
Net income, $m
  108
  221
  280
  332
  385
  442
  500
  561
  625
  691
  760
  844
  919
  998
  1,080
  1,165
  1,255
  1,349
  1,447
  1,550
  1,657
  1,770
  1,889
  2,013
  2,143
  2,280
  2,423
  2,574
  2,732
  2,899
  3,073

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  656
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,662
  1,102
  1,202
  1,305
  1,413
  1,526
  1,643
  1,764
  1,890
  2,021
  2,158
  2,300
  2,447
  2,600
  2,760
  2,927
  3,100
  3,281
  3,470
  3,666
  3,872
  4,087
  4,311
  4,546
  4,791
  5,048
  5,317
  5,598
  5,893
  6,201
  6,525
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,006
  1,102
  1,202
  1,305
  1,413
  1,526
  1,643
  1,764
  1,890
  2,021
  2,158
  2,300
  2,447
  2,600
  2,760
  2,927
  3,100
  3,281
  3,470
  3,666
  3,872
  4,087
  4,311
  4,546
  4,791
  5,048
  5,317
  5,598
  5,893
  6,201
  6,525
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.448
  1.447
  1.448
  1.448
  1.449
  1.448
  1.448
  1.448
  1.448
  1.448
  1.448
  1.448
  1.448
  1.448
  1.448
  1.448
  1.448
  1.448
  1.448
  1.448
  1.448
  1.448
  1.448
  1.448
  1.448
  1.448
  1.448
  1.448
  1.448
  1.448
  1.448
Average production assets, $m
  85
  93
  101
  110
  119
  128
  138
  148
  159
  170
  181
  193
  206
  218
  232
  246
  260
  276
  291
  308
  325
  343
  362
  382
  402
  424
  447
  470
  495
  521
  548
Working capital, $m
  463
  -177
  -193
  -210
  -227
  -245
  -264
  -284
  -304
  -325
  -347
  -370
  -393
  -418
  -444
  -470
  -498
  -527
  -558
  -589
  -622
  -657
  -693
  -731
  -770
  -811
  -855
  -900
  -947
  -997
  -1,049
Total debt, $m
  216
  73
  162
  256
  353
  454
  559
  669
  782
  900
  1,023
  1,151
  1,283
  1,421
  1,565
  1,715
  1,871
  2,034
  2,204
  2,381
  2,566
  2,759
  2,961
  3,172
  3,393
  3,624
  3,866
  4,119
  4,385
  4,662
  4,953
Total liabilities, $m
  1,135
  992
  1,081
  1,175
  1,272
  1,373
  1,478
  1,588
  1,701
  1,819
  1,942
  2,070
  2,202
  2,340
  2,484
  2,634
  2,790
  2,953
  3,123
  3,300
  3,485
  3,678
  3,880
  4,091
  4,312
  4,543
  4,785
  5,038
  5,304
  5,581
  5,872
Total equity, $m
  527
  110
  120
  131
  141
  153
  164
  176
  189
  202
  216
  230
  245
  260
  276
  293
  310
  328
  347
  367
  387
  409
  431
  455
  479
  505
  532
  560
  589
  620
  652
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,662
  1,102
  1,201
  1,306
  1,413
  1,526
  1,642
  1,764
  1,890
  2,021
  2,158
  2,300
  2,447
  2,600
  2,760
  2,927
  3,100
  3,281
  3,470
  3,667
  3,872
  4,087
  4,311
  4,546
  4,791
  5,048
  5,317
  5,598
  5,893
  6,201
  6,524
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.410
  0.660
  1.350
  1.960
  2.500
  2.980
  3.410
  3.790
  4.140
  4.450
  4.740
  5.000
  5.240
  5.470
  5.670
  5.860
  6.040
  6.200
  6.350
  6.490
  6.630
  6.750
  6.870
  6.980
  7.080
  7.180
  7.270
  7.360
  7.440
  7.520
  7.590
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.097
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  108
  221
  280
  332
  385
  442
  500
  561
  625
  691
  760
  844
  919
  998
  1,080
  1,165
  1,255
  1,349
  1,447
  1,550
  1,657
  1,770
  1,889
  2,013
  2,143
  2,280
  2,423
  2,574
  2,732
  2,899
  3,073
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  53
  55
Funds from operations, $m
  376
  246
  306
  359
  414
  471
  530
  592
  657
  724
  794
  863
  940
  1,020
  1,103
  1,190
  1,281
  1,377
  1,476
  1,581
  1,690
  1,805
  1,925
  2,051
  2,184
  2,322
  2,468
  2,621
  2,782
  2,951
  3,129
Change in working capital, $m
  -40
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
Cash from operations, $m
  416
  257
  322
  376
  431
  489
  549
  612
  677
  745
  816
  886
  964
  1,044
  1,129
  1,217
  1,309
  1,406
  1,507
  1,613
  1,723
  1,839
  1,961
  2,089
  2,223
  2,364
  2,511
  2,667
  2,830
  3,001
  3,181
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
New CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -49
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
Free cash flow, $m
  367
  240
  305
  357
  411
  467
  526
  588
  652
  718
  788
  856
  932
  1,011
  1,093
  1,180
  1,270
  1,364
  1,463
  1,567
  1,675
  1,789
  1,908
  2,033
  2,164
  2,302
  2,446
  2,598
  2,757
  2,925
  3,101
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  32
  -112
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  202
  211
  221
  231
  242
  253
  265
  278
  291
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -174
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -180
  -112
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  202
  211
  221
  231
  242
  253
  265
  278
  291
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  162
  128
  394
  450
  508
  568
  631
  697
  765
  836
  910
  984
  1,064
  1,149
  1,237
  1,329
  1,426
  1,527
  1,633
  1,744
  1,860
  1,982
  2,110
  2,244
  2,385
  2,533
  2,688
  2,851
  3,022
  3,203
  3,392
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -22
  -208
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  625
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  545
  384
  440
  497
  557
  620
  685
  752
  823
  897
  969
  1,050
  1,134
  1,221
  1,313
  1,409
  1,509
  1,614
  1,724
  1,839
  1,960
  2,087
  2,220
  2,360
  2,507
  2,661
  2,823
  2,993
  3,172
  3,360
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  522
  352
  383
  409
  432
  450
  463
  470
  473
  470
  460
  448
  431
  410
  385
  358
  328
  297
  265
  234
  203
  173
  146
  120
  98
  78
  61
  46
  35
  25
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Evercore Partners Inc. operates as an independent investment banking advisory firm in the United States, Europe, Latin America, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Investment Banking and Investment Management. The Investment Banking segment offers advisory services on mergers, acquisitions, divestitures, leveraged buyouts, and other strategic corporate transactions; capital markets advice relating to debt and equity securities; and services related to securities underwriting, private fund placement services, and commissions for agency-based equity trading services and equity research. This segment also raises funds for financial sponsors; and provides restructuring advice to companies in financial transition, as well as to creditors, shareholders, and potential acquirers. The Investment Management segment manages financial assets for institutional investors; provides independent fiduciary services to corporate employee benefit plans, as well as wealth management services for high net-worth individuals; and manages private equity funds. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Evercore Partners Cl A (EVR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.4
Price to Sales 2.1
Price to Book 5.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 17.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 12.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 35.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 21
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 35.1%
Total Debt to Equity 41%
Interest Coverage 20
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Total Capital 15.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Return On Equity 20.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 98.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 98.6%
EBITDA Margin 21.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Operating Margin 17.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 18.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Net Profit Margin 7.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Effective Tax Rate 44.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.9%
Payout Ratio 48.1%

EVR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EVR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1457 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Evercore Partners Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Evercore Partners Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EVR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EVR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Evercore Partners Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Evercore Partners Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EVR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 38.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $648 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EVR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7% for Evercore Partners Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Evercore Partners Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EVR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EVR are equal to 5.8%.

Life of production assets of 9.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Evercore Partners Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EVR is equal to -11.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $527 million for Evercore Partners Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 45.315 million for Evercore Partners Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Evercore Partners Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.6 billion.


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Stock chart of EVR Financial statements of EVR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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