Intrinsic value of Evertec - EVTC

Previous Close

$18.75

  Intrinsic Value

$13.76

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-27%

  Value-price divergence*

+150%

Previous close

$18.75

 
Intrinsic value

$13.76

 
Up/down potential

-27%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+150%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EVTC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.28
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
Revenue, $m
  390
  415
  440
  467
  495
  524
  554
  585
  618
  652
  688
  726
  765
  806
  849
  894
  941
  991
  1,042
  1,096
  1,153
  1,213
  1,275
  1,340
  1,409
  1,481
  1,556
  1,635
  1,718
  1,806
  1,897
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  297
  313
  330
  348
  366
  385
  405
  425
  447
  469
  456
  480
  506
  533
  561
  591
  622
  654
  688
  724
  761
  801
  842
  885
  930
  977
  1,027
  1,079
  1,134
  1,191
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  282
  297
  313
  330
  348
  366
  385
  405
  425
  447
  469
  456
  480
  506
  533
  561
  591
  622
  654
  688
  724
  761
  801
  842
  885
  930
  977
  1,027
  1,079
  1,134
  1,191
Operating income, $m
  107
  117
  127
  137
  147
  158
  169
  181
  193
  206
  219
  270
  285
  300
  316
  333
  350
  369
  388
  408
  429
  451
  474
  499
  524
  551
  579
  609
  639
  672
  706
EBITDA, $m
  167
  185
  196
  208
  220
  233
  247
  261
  276
  291
  307
  324
  341
  359
  379
  399
  420
  442
  465
  489
  514
  541
  568
  598
  628
  660
  694
  729
  766
  805
  846
Interest expense (income), $m
  23
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
Earnings before tax, $m
  83
  95
  102
  110
  119
  128
  137
  147
  157
  167
  178
  227
  239
  251
  264
  278
  292
  307
  323
  340
  357
  375
  394
  414
  435
  457
  480
  504
  530
  556
  584
Tax expense, $m
  8
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  112
  117
  123
  130
  136
  143
  150
  158
Net income, $m
  75
  69
  75
  81
  87
  93
  100
  107
  114
  122
  130
  165
  174
  183
  193
  203
  213
  224
  236
  248
  261
  274
  288
  302
  318
  334
  350
  368
  387
  406
  426

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  52
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  886
  942
  1,000
  1,061
  1,124
  1,190
  1,258
  1,330
  1,405
  1,483
  1,564
  1,650
  1,739
  1,832
  1,930
  2,032
  2,139
  2,251
  2,369
  2,492
  2,621
  2,756
  2,898
  3,046
  3,202
  3,366
  3,537
  3,717
  3,906
  4,104
  4,311
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  834
  942
  1,000
  1,061
  1,124
  1,190
  1,258
  1,330
  1,405
  1,483
  1,564
  1,650
  1,739
  1,832
  1,930
  2,032
  2,139
  2,251
  2,369
  2,492
  2,621
  2,756
  2,898
  3,046
  3,202
  3,366
  3,537
  3,717
  3,906
  4,104
  4,311
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.468
  0.441
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
Average production assets, $m
  342
  364
  386
  409
  434
  459
  486
  513
  542
  572
  604
  637
  671
  707
  745
  784
  826
  869
  914
  962
  1,011
  1,064
  1,118
  1,176
  1,236
  1,299
  1,365
  1,434
  1,507
  1,583
  1,664
Working capital, $m
  29
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  121
Total debt, $m
  647
  696
  747
  801
  856
  914
  975
  1,038
  1,104
  1,172
  1,244
  1,319
  1,398
  1,480
  1,566
  1,656
  1,751
  1,850
  1,953
  2,061
  2,175
  2,294
  2,419
  2,550
  2,687
  2,831
  2,982
  3,141
  3,307
  3,481
  3,664
Total liabilities, $m
  781
  830
  881
  935
  990
  1,048
  1,109
  1,172
  1,238
  1,306
  1,378
  1,453
  1,532
  1,614
  1,700
  1,790
  1,885
  1,984
  2,087
  2,195
  2,309
  2,428
  2,553
  2,684
  2,821
  2,965
  3,116
  3,275
  3,441
  3,615
  3,798
Total equity, $m
  105
  112
  119
  126
  134
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  230
  242
  255
  268
  282
  297
  312
  328
  345
  363
  381
  401
  421
  442
  465
  488
  513
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  886
  942
  1,000
  1,061
  1,124
  1,190
  1,259
  1,330
  1,405
  1,482
  1,564
  1,649
  1,739
  1,832
  1,930
  2,032
  2,140
  2,252
  2,369
  2,492
  2,621
  2,756
  2,898
  3,047
  3,202
  3,366
  3,537
  3,717
  3,906
  4,103
  4,311
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.162
  6.210
  6.280
  6.340
  6.400
  6.460
  6.510
  6.560
  6.600
  6.640
  6.680
  6.720
  6.760
  6.790
  6.820
  6.850
  6.880
  6.900
  6.930
  6.950
  6.970
  6.990
  7.010
  7.030
  7.050
  7.070
  7.090
  7.100
  7.120
  7.130
  7.140
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.097
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119
  0.119

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  75
  69
  75
  81
  87
  93
  100
  107
  114
  122
  130
  165
  174
  183
  193
  203
  213
  224
  236
  248
  261
  274
  288
  302
  318
  334
  350
  368
  387
  406
  426
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  60
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  83
  85
  88
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  133
  140
Funds from operations, $m
  189
  137
  144
  152
  160
  169
  178
  187
  197
  207
  218
  219
  231
  243
  255
  269
  283
  297
  313
  329
  346
  363
  382
  401
  421
  443
  465
  489
  513
  539
  566
Change in working capital, $m
  21
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Cash from operations, $m
  168
  135
  143
  150
  159
  167
  176
  185
  195
  205
  215
  217
  228
  240
  253
  266
  280
  294
  309
  325
  342
  359
  378
  397
  417
  438
  460
  484
  508
  533
  560
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
New CAPEX, $m
  -42
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -54
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -84
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -194
  -203
  -213
Free cash flow, $m
  114
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  129
  136
  133
  140
  148
  156
  164
  173
  182
  191
  201
  211
  222
  234
  246
  258
  271
  285
  299
  315
  330
  347
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -12
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  183
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -40
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -61
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  183
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  53
  134
  141
  148
  155
  163
  171
  180
  189
  198
  208
  208
  219
  230
  242
  254
  267
  280
  295
  309
  325
  341
  359
  377
  395
  415
  436
  458
  481
  505
  530
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  127
  134
  141
  148
  155
  163
  171
  180
  189
  198
  198
  208
  219
  230
  242
  254
  267
  281
  295
  310
  325
  342
  359
  377
  396
  416
  436
  458
  481
  505
Discount rate, %
 
  10.30
  10.82
  11.36
  11.92
  12.52
  13.15
  13.80
  14.49
  15.22
  15.98
  16.78
  17.62
  18.50
  19.42
  20.39
  21.41
  22.48
  23.61
  24.79
  26.03
  27.33
  28.70
  30.13
  31.64
  33.22
  34.88
  36.62
  38.45
  40.38
  42.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  115
  109
  102
  94
  86
  78
  69
  61
  53
  45
  36
  30
  24
  19
  15
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

EVERTEC, Inc. and its subsidiaries engages in transaction processing business serving financial institutions, merchants, corporations, and government agencies in Latin America and the Caribbean. The company operates through three segments: Merchant Acquiring, Payment Processing, and Business Solutions. The Merchant Acquiring segment provides merchant acquiring services, which enable point of sales (POS) and e-commerce merchants to accept and process electronic methods of payment, such as debit, credit, prepaid, and electronic benefit transfer (EBT) cards. The Payment Processing segment offers payment processing services that enable financial institutions and other issuers to manage, support, and facilitate the processing for credit, debit, prepaid, automated teller machines (ATM) and EBT card programs. Its services include credit and debit card processing, authorization and settlement, and fraud monitoring and control services to debit or credit issuers; payment and billing products for merchants, businesses, and financial institutions; and EBT services. The Business Solutions segment provides business process management solutions comprising core bank processing, network hosting and management, IT consulting services, business process outsourcing, item and cash processing, and fulfillment solutions to financial institutions, corporations, and governments. EVERTEC, Inc. manages a system of electronic payment networks that process approximately two billion transactions. It sells and distributes its services primarily through a proprietary direct sales force, as well as various indirect sales channels, including value-added resellers. The company was formerly known as Carib Latam Holdings, Inc. EVERTEC, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in San Juan, Puerto Rico.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Evertec (EVTC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.2
Price to Sales 3.5
Price to Book 13
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -10.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.4
LT Debt to Equity 570.5%
Total Debt to Equity 616.2%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Return On Total Capital 9.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Return On Equity 73.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 75.4%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.4%
EBITDA Margin 42.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.4%
Operating Margin 27.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.3%
Net Profit Margin 19.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.1%
Effective Tax Rate 9.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Payout Ratio 40%

EVTC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EVTC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $390 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Evertec. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Evertec. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EVTC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.3%, whose default value for EVTC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Evertec, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Evertec.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EVTC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 72.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EVTC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Evertec.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Evertec. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EVTC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EVTC are equal to 87.7%.

Life of production assets of 11.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Evertec operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EVTC is equal to 6.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $105 million for Evertec - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 70.857 million for Evertec is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Evertec at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Evertec tops Street 2Q forecasts   [Aug-01-17 11:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ EVERTEC Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [04:10PM  Business Wire]
▶ EVERTEC Declares Quarterly Dividend on Common Stock   [Jul-26-17 09:55AM  Business Wire]
▶ EVERTEC Launches ATH® Móvil Business   [Jun-20-17 05:33PM  Business Wire]
▶ EVERTEC Receives Approval on PayGroup Acquisition   [Jun-05-17 04:14PM  Business Wire]
▶ EVERTEC, Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:EVTC) : May 8, 2017   [May-08-17 05:52PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Evertec beats Street 1Q forecasts   [May-03-17 05:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ EVERTEC Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [04:10PM  Business Wire]
▶ EVERTEC Declares Quarterly Dividend on Common Stock   [Apr-27-17 04:10PM  Business Wire]
▶ Evertec beats Street 4Q forecasts   [05:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Should You Follow Hedge Funds Into Evertec Inc (EVTC)?   [Nov-28-16 03:56PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ EVERTEC Reports Third Quarter 2016 Results   [04:10PM  Business Wire]
▶ EVERTEC Reports Second Quarter 2016 Results   [04:10PM  Business Wire]
▶ EVERTEC Amends Credit Facility   [Apr-14-16 04:05PM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of EVTC Financial statements of EVTC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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