Intrinsic value of Endeavour Silver - EXK

Previous Close

$2.97

  Intrinsic Value

$0.95

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-68%

Previous close

$2.97

 
Intrinsic value

$0.95

 
Up/down potential

-68%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of EXK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -14.67
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  157
  153
  157
  161
  165
  170
  176
  182
  188
  195
  202
  210
  219
  228
  238
  248
  259
  270
  283
  295
  309
  323
  338
  354
  371
  389
  407
  427
  448
  469
  492
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  134
  137
  141
  145
  149
  154
  159
  165
  171
  178
  185
  192
  200
  209
  218
  227
  237
  248
  259
  271
  284
  297
  311
  325
  341
  357
  374
  393
  412
  432
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  138
  134
  137
  141
  145
  149
  154
  159
  165
  171
  178
  185
  192
  200
  209
  218
  227
  237
  248
  259
  271
  284
  297
  311
  325
  341
  357
  374
  393
  412
  432
Operating income, $m
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
EBITDA, $m
  33
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
Earnings before tax, $m
  12
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
Tax expense, $m
  8
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
Net income, $m
  4
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  72
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  181
  164
  168
  172
  177
  182
  188
  195
  202
  209
  217
  226
  235
  244
  255
  266
  277
  290
  303
  317
  331
  347
  363
  380
  398
  417
  437
  458
  480
  503
  527
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  109
  164
  168
  172
  177
  182
  188
  195
  202
  209
  217
  226
  235
  244
  255
  266
  277
  290
  303
  317
  331
  347
  363
  380
  398
  417
  437
  458
  480
  503
  527
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.440
  0.933
  0.935
  0.936
  0.932
  0.934
  0.936
  0.933
  0.931
  0.933
  0.931
  0.929
  0.932
  0.934
  0.933
  0.932
  0.935
  0.931
  0.934
  0.931
  0.934
  0.931
  0.931
  0.932
  0.932
  0.933
  0.931
  0.932
  0.933
  0.932
  0.934
Average production assets, $m
  57
  79
  81
  83
  85
  88
  90
  93
  97
  100
  104
  108
  113
  117
  122
  128
  133
  139
  146
  152
  159
  167
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
  230
  242
  253
Working capital, $m
  81
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
Total debt, $m
  9
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  64
  69
  73
Total liabilities, $m
  47
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
Total equity, $m
  133
  131
  134
  138
  142
  146
  151
  156
  161
  167
  174
  181
  188
  196
  204
  213
  222
  232
  243
  254
  265
  278
  291
  304
  319
  334
  350
  367
  384
  403
  422
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  180
  164
  167
  172
  177
  182
  188
  195
  201
  209
  217
  226
  235
  245
  255
  266
  277
  290
  303
  317
  331
  347
  363
  380
  398
  417
  437
  458
  479
  503
  527
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.068
  0.010
  0.010
  0.020
  0.030
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.170
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.560
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  14
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
Funds from operations, $m
  22
  22
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  23
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
New CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -19
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
Free cash flow, $m
  4
  13
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -14
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  48
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  52
  14
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -82
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  29
  10
  10
  10
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  28
  9
  9
  8
  7
  7
  6
  6
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Endeavour Silver Corp. is engaged in silver mining in Mexico, and related activities, including property acquisition, exploration, development, mineral extraction, processing, refining and reclamation. The Company is engaged in exploration activities in Chile. The Company's operating mining segments include Guanacevi, Bolanitos and El Cubo, which are located in Mexico, as well as Exploration and Corporate segments. The Exploration segment consists of projects in the exploration and evaluation phases in Mexico and Chile. The Company produces silver-gold from its underground mines at Guanacevi, Bolanitos and El Cubo in Mexico. Its exploration projects include Guadalupe y Calvo, Parral Mine, Terronera and Lourdes. The Company conducts its business primarily in Mexico through its subsidiary companies, such as Endeavour Gold Corporation, S.A. de C.V., Minera Plata Adelante, S.A. de C.V., Refinadora Plata Guanacevi, S.A. de C.V., Minas Lupycal S.A. de C.V. and MXRT Holdings Inc.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Endeavour Silver (EXK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 94.4
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 125.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -14.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -44.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -25.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 8
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 6.8%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -33%
Return On Total Capital 3.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -42.5%
Return On Equity 4.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -50.9%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
EBITDA Margin 17.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.2%
Operating Margin 12.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -36%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -39.4%
Net Profit Margin 2.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -39%
Effective Tax Rate 66.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

EXK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EXK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $150 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Endeavour Silver. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Endeavour Silver. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EXK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EXK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Endeavour Silver, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Endeavour Silver.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EXK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EXK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 15.9% for Endeavour Silver.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Endeavour Silver. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EXK stock is equal to 1.9%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EXK are equal to 51.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Endeavour Silver operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EXK is equal to -3.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $147 million for Endeavour Silver - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 127 million for Endeavour Silver is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Endeavour Silver at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Endeavour Appoints Vice President, New Projects   [May-29-18 06:50AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 5 Shining Silver Stocks to Buy Today   [May-11-18 02:21PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ High Growth Stocks To Profit From   [May-08-18 12:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Endeavour Silver: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-03-18 11:06AM  Associated Press]
▶ Mexico Management Appointments and Departure   [Apr-18-18 06:50AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Endeavour Silver Files Final Base Shelf Prospectus   [Apr-13-18 06:50AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Top 3 Growth Stocks For The Month   [Mar-05-18 11:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Endeavour Silver Corp Rises   [Feb-27-18 09:39AM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Endeavour Silver beats 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-26-18 07:59AM  Associated Press]
▶ Top High Growth Stocks This Week   [Feb-02-18 11:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Endeavour Silver Anticipates Increased Production in 2018   [Jan-26-18 10:50AM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Endeavour Silver Corp up 4.25%   [Jan-12-18 10:56AM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Endeavour Silver Updates on El Compas   [Jan-10-18 01:35PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Top 3 Growth Stocks For The Month   [Dec-22-17 11:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ High Growth TSX Stocks   [Nov-10-17 11:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ The Top 3 Silver Penny Stocks for 2017   [Nov-05-17 08:19AM  Investopedia]
▶ Why Endeavour Silver Corp's Shares Popped 15% Today   [Nov-02-17 02:13PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Endeavour Silver misses 3Q profit forecasts   [10:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Endeavour Silver Gains Mining Rights on Concessions   [Sep-13-17 01:32PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Endeavour Silver Reports Encouraging Drilling Results   [Aug-31-17 04:33PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Endeavour Silver Reports 2nd Quarter   [Aug-07-17 04:01PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Endeavour Silver misses 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-04-17 03:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Endeavour Silver Corp's Shares Plunged 16% Today   [Aug-03-17 03:37PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Endeavour Silver Reports Gold and Silver Production   [Jul-12-17 06:16PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Benzinga's Option Alert Recap From June 19   [Jun-19-17 04:14PM  Benzinga]
▶ Endeavour Silver Beats Expectations   [May-05-17 01:27PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Endeavour Silver posts 1Q profit   [07:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ Endeavour Silver Reports on Gold and Silver Production   [Apr-12-17 05:36PM  GuruFocus.com]
Financial statements of EXK
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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