Intrinsic value of Endeavour Silver - EXK

Previous Close

$2.29

  Intrinsic Value

$0.26

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-89%

Previous close

$2.29

 
Intrinsic value

$0.26

 
Up/down potential

-89%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of EXK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -14.67
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  157
  160
  164
  168
  173
  178
  184
  190
  197
  204
  212
  220
  229
  239
  249
  260
  271
  283
  296
  309
  323
  338
  354
  371
  388
  407
  426
  447
  468
  491
  515
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  278
  285
  292
  300
  310
  320
  330
  342
  355
  369
  383
  399
  415
  433
  451
  471
  492
  514
  538
  562
  588
  616
  645
  675
  708
  742
  777
  815
  854
  896
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  138
  278
  285
  292
  300
  310
  320
  330
  342
  355
  369
  383
  399
  415
  433
  451
  471
  492
  514
  538
  562
  588
  616
  645
  675
  708
  742
  777
  815
  854
  896
Operating income, $m
  19
  -118
  -121
  -124
  -128
  -132
  -136
  -140
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -163
  -169
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -200
  -209
  -219
  -229
  -239
  -250
  -262
  -274
  -287
  -301
  -315
  -330
  -346
  -363
  -381
EBITDA, $m
  33
  -107
  -109
  -112
  -115
  -119
  -122
  -127
  -131
  -136
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -197
  -206
  -216
  -226
  -236
  -247
  -259
  -271
  -284
  -298
  -312
  -327
  -343
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Earnings before tax, $m
  12
  -118
  -121
  -124
  -128
  -132
  -136
  -141
  -146
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -170
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -202
  -211
  -221
  -231
  -241
  -253
  -265
  -277
  -290
  -304
  -319
  -334
  -351
  -368
  -386
Tax expense, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  4
  -118
  -121
  -124
  -128
  -132
  -136
  -141
  -146
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -170
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -202
  -211
  -221
  -231
  -241
  -253
  -265
  -277
  -290
  -304
  -319
  -334
  -351
  -368
  -386

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  72
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  181
  111
  114
  117
  120
  124
  128
  132
  137
  142
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  197
  205
  215
  225
  235
  246
  258
  270
  283
  296
  310
  325
  341
  358
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  109
  111
  114
  117
  120
  124
  128
  132
  137
  142
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  197
  205
  215
  225
  235
  246
  258
  270
  283
  296
  310
  325
  341
  358
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.440
  1.441
  1.439
  1.436
  1.442
  1.435
  1.438
  1.439
  1.438
  1.437
  1.442
  1.438
  1.440
  1.440
  1.439
  1.444
  1.441
  1.437
  1.444
  1.437
  1.436
  1.438
  1.439
  1.438
  1.437
  1.438
  1.439
  1.442
  1.440
  1.440
  1.439
Average production assets, $m
  57
  58
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187
Working capital, $m
  81
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
Total debt, $m
  9
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  26
  28
  31
  35
  38
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  72
  77
  83
  89
Total liabilities, $m
  47
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  67
  70
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
Total equity, $m
  133
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
  219
  230
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  180
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  128
  132
  137
  142
  147
  153
  159
  165
  173
  181
  188
  196
  206
  215
  224
  235
  246
  257
  270
  282
  296
  310
  325
  341
  358
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.068
  0.010
  0.020
  0.040
  0.050
  0.070
  0.080
  0.100
  0.110
  0.130
  0.140
  0.160
  0.180
  0.190
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.560
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  -118
  -121
  -124
  -128
  -132
  -136
  -141
  -146
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -170
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -202
  -211
  -221
  -231
  -241
  -253
  -265
  -277
  -290
  -304
  -319
  -334
  -351
  -368
  -386
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  14
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
Funds from operations, $m
  22
  -107
  -109
  -112
  -115
  -119
  -123
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -167
  -174
  -182
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -218
  -228
  -239
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -288
  -302
  -317
  -332
  -348
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  23
  -107
  -110
  -113
  -116
  -119
  -123
  -128
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -230
  -241
  -252
  -264
  -277
  -290
  -304
  -319
  -335
  -351
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
New CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -19
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
Free cash flow, $m
  4
  -120
  -123
  -126
  -130
  -134
  -138
  -143
  -149
  -154
  -161
  -167
  -174
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -206
  -216
  -226
  -236
  -247
  -259
  -271
  -284
  -298
  -312
  -327
  -343
  -359
  -377
  -395
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -14
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  11
  120
  123
  126
  130
  134
  139
  144
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  216
  226
  237
  248
  259
  272
  285
  298
  313
  328
  344
  360
  378
  396
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  48
  121
  124
  127
  131
  135
  140
  146
  151
  157
  163
  169
  176
  184
  193
  201
  210
  219
  229
  240
  252
  263
  276
  289
  302
  318
  333
  349
  365
  384
  402
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  52
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -82
  -120
  -123
  -126
  -130
  -134
  -139
  -144
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -167
  -174
  -182
  -190
  -198
  -207
  -216
  -226
  -237
  -248
  -259
  -272
  -285
  -298
  -313
  -328
  -344
  -360
  -378
  -396
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  63
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -56
  -122
  -125
  -129
  -133
  -137
  -142
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -187
  -195
  -204
  -213
  -223
  -233
  -244
  -255
  -267
  -280
  -293
  -307
  -322
  -338
  -354
  -371
  -390
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -53
  -111
  -109
  -106
  -103
  -99
  -96
  -92
  -88
  -83
  -78
  -73
  -68
  -63
  -57
  -52
  -46
  -41
  -36
  -31
  -26
  -22
  -18
  -15
  -12
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  56.4
  31.8
  17.9
  10.0
  5.6
  3.1
  1.8
  1.0
  0.5
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Endeavour Silver Corp. is engaged in silver mining in Mexico, and related activities, including property acquisition, exploration, development, mineral extraction, processing, refining and reclamation. The Company is engaged in exploration activities in Chile. The Company's operating mining segments include Guanacevi, Bolanitos and El Cubo, which are located in Mexico, as well as Exploration and Corporate segments. The Exploration segment consists of projects in the exploration and evaluation phases in Mexico and Chile. The Company produces silver-gold from its underground mines at Guanacevi, Bolanitos and El Cubo in Mexico. Its exploration projects include Guadalupe y Calvo, Parral Mine, Terronera and Lourdes. The Company conducts its business primarily in Mexico through its subsidiary companies, such as Endeavour Gold Corporation, S.A. de C.V., Minera Plata Adelante, S.A. de C.V., Refinadora Plata Guanacevi, S.A. de C.V., Minas Lupycal S.A. de C.V. and MXRT Holdings Inc.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Endeavour Silver (EXK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 72.8
Price to Sales 1.9
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 97
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -14.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -44.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -25.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 8
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 6.8%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -33%
Return On Total Capital 3.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -42.5%
Return On Equity 4.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -50.9%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
EBITDA Margin 17.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.2%
Operating Margin 12.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -36%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -39.4%
Net Profit Margin 2.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -39%
Effective Tax Rate 66.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

EXK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EXK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $157 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Endeavour Silver. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Endeavour Silver. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EXK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EXK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Endeavour Silver, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Endeavour Silver.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EXK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 173.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EXK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.3% for Endeavour Silver.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Endeavour Silver. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EXK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EXK are equal to 36.3%.

Life of production assets of 4.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Endeavour Silver operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EXK is equal to 11.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $133 million for Endeavour Silver - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 128.73 million for Endeavour Silver is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Endeavour Silver at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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Financial statements of EXK
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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