Intrinsic value of Endeavour Silver - EXK

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$3.21

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EXK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -14.67
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  157
  188
  192
  197
  202
  209
  215
  223
  231
  239
  248
  258
  269
  280
  292
  304
  318
  332
  347
  362
  379
  397
  415
  435
  455
  477
  500
  524
  549
  576
  604
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  274
  281
  288
  296
  305
  315
  326
  337
  350
  363
  377
  393
  409
  426
  445
  464
  485
  507
  530
  554
  580
  607
  635
  666
  697
  731
  766
  803
  842
  882
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  138
  274
  281
  288
  296
  305
  315
  326
  337
  350
  363
  377
  393
  409
  426
  445
  464
  485
  507
  530
  554
  580
  607
  635
  666
  697
  731
  766
  803
  842
  882
Operating income, $m
  19
  -87
  -89
  -91
  -94
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -110
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -242
  -254
  -266
  -279
EBITDA, $m
  33
  -63
  -65
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -203
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Earnings before tax, $m
  12
  -87
  -89
  -91
  -94
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -233
  -245
  -257
  -269
  -282
Tax expense, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  4
  -87
  -89
  -91
  -94
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -233
  -245
  -257
  -269
  -282

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  72
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  181
  95
  97
  100
  102
  105
  109
  113
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  253
  265
  278
  291
  305
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  109
  95
  97
  100
  102
  105
  109
  113
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  253
  265
  278
  291
  305
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.440
  1.979
  1.979
  1.970
  1.980
  1.990
  1.972
  1.973
  1.974
  1.975
  1.968
  1.969
  1.978
  1.986
  1.986
  1.974
  1.975
  1.976
  1.983
  1.978
  1.974
  1.975
  1.976
  1.977
  1.978
  1.979
  1.976
  1.977
  1.975
  1.979
  1.980
Average production assets, $m
  57
  118
  121
  124
  127
  131
  135
  140
  145
  150
  156
  162
  169
  176
  183
  191
  199
  208
  218
  228
  238
  249
  261
  273
  286
  299
  314
  329
  345
  361
  379
Working capital, $m
  81
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  62
Total debt, $m
  9
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  80
  85
  92
  98
Total liabilities, $m
  47
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  132
  138
Total equity, $m
  133
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  69
  72
  74
  78
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  180
  95
  97
  100
  102
  106
  109
  113
  117
  121
  126
  131
  135
  142
  148
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  192
  201
  210
  219
  230
  241
  252
  265
  277
  291
  305
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.068
  0.060
  0.070
  0.090
  0.110
  0.130
  0.150
  0.180
  0.200
  0.220
  0.240
  0.270
  0.290
  0.310
  0.330
  0.350
  0.370
  0.390
  0.410
  0.430
  0.440
  0.460
  0.480
  0.490
  0.510
  0.520
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.590
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.560
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  -87
  -89
  -91
  -94
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -233
  -245
  -257
  -269
  -282
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  14
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
Funds from operations, $m
  22
  -63
  -65
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -207
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  23
  -131
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -200
  -209
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
New CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -19
  -25
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -45
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
Free cash flow, $m
  4
  -157
  -91
  -94
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -205
  -215
  -225
  -236
  -247
  -259
  -272
  -285
  -299
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -14
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  11
  157
  92
  94
  97
  101
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  132
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
  188
  196
  206
  216
  226
  237
  248
  260
  273
  287
  301
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  48
  158
  93
  95
  98
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  167
  174
  183
  192
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
  253
  265
  279
  293
  307
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  52
  -156
  -90
  -93
  -96
  -99
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -242
  -254
  -266
  -279
  -293
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -82
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  73.2
  60.6
  50.0
  41.2
  34.0
  28.0
  23.0
  18.9
  15.6
  12.8
  10.5
  8.6
  7.1
  5.8
  4.7
  3.9
  3.2
  2.6
  2.1
  1.7
  1.4
  1.2
  1.0
  0.8
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2

Endeavour Silver Corp., a mid-tier precious metals mining company, engages in acquisition, exploration, development, extraction, processing, refining, and reclamation of mining properties in Mexico and Chile. The company primarily explores for silver and gold deposits. It holds interest in the Guanaceví mine in the Durango state; and the Bolañitos and El Cubo mines in the Guanajuato state of Mexico. It also owns interests in various exploration properties, including the Guadalupe y Calvo and Parral projects in Chihuahua, Mexico; the Terronera project in Jalisco, Mexico; and the Lourdes locate in Guanajuato state of Mexico. In addition, Endeavour Silver Corp. has options to acquire a 51% interest in the Panuco exploration property in Durango, Mexico; and purchase a 75% interest in the El Inca properties located in Chile. The company was formerly known as Endeavour Gold Corp. and changed its name to Endeavour Silver Corp. in September 2004. Endeavour Silver Corp. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Endeavour Silver (EXK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 102
Price to Sales 2.6
Price to Book 3.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 136
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -14.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -44.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -25.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 8
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 6.8%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -33%
Return On Total Capital 3.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -42.5%
Return On Equity 4.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -50.9%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
EBITDA Margin 17.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.2%
Operating Margin 12.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -36%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -39.4%
Net Profit Margin 2.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -39%
Effective Tax Rate 66.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

EXK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EXK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $184 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Endeavour Silver. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Endeavour Silver. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EXK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EXK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Endeavour Silver, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Endeavour Silver.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EXK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 146.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EXK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.8% for Endeavour Silver.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Endeavour Silver. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EXK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EXK are equal to 62.8%.

Life of production assets of 2.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Endeavour Silver operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EXK is equal to 10.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $51 million for Endeavour Silver - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 133.592 million for Endeavour Silver is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Endeavour Silver at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Benzinga's Option Alert Recap From June 19   [Jun-19-17 04:14PM  Benzinga]
▶ Endeavour Silver Beats Expectations   [May-05-17 01:27PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Endeavour Silver posts 1Q profit   [07:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ Endeavour Silver Reports on Gold and Silver Production   [Apr-12-17 05:36PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Acacia Mining Ends Merger Talks With Endeavour Silver   [Mar-24-17 05:14PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for March 22nd   [Mar-22-17 11:17AM  Zacks]
▶ Endeavour Silver Releases Drilling Results   [Mar-17-17 03:18PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ The Top 3 Silver Penny Stocks for 2017   [Feb-23-17 04:55PM  at Investopedia]
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▶ Is Chegg Inc (CHGG) A Good Stock To Buy Right Now?   [Dec-10-16 03:00PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Buying Endeavour Silver Corp (EXK)   [08:56AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ 3 Things Great Panther Silver Ltd's CEO Wants You to Know   [Nov-15-16 01:24PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Silver Standard to Sell Parral Exploration Properties   [Sep-14-16 06:55AM  CNW Group]
▶ Here's Why Silver Stocks Lost Their Luster on Friday   [Sep-10-16 05:40PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ These 7 Silver Stocks Tarnished in August -- Here's Why   [Sep-08-16 09:23AM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of EXK Financial statements of EXK
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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