Intrinsic value of ExlService Holdings - EXLS

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$51.87

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$51.87

 
Intrinsic value

$37.07

 
Up/down potential

-29%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EXLS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.24
  9.60
  9.14
  8.73
  8.35
  8.02
  7.72
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
Revenue, $m
  686
  752
  821
  892
  967
  1,044
  1,125
  1,209
  1,296
  1,386
  1,480
  1,578
  1,679
  1,785
  1,895
  2,010
  2,130
  2,254
  2,384
  2,520
  2,661
  2,809
  2,964
  3,126
  3,295
  3,472
  3,657
  3,850
  4,053
  4,265
  4,488
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  670
  730
  792
  857
  924
  994
  1,066
  1,142
  1,220
  1,301
  1,367
  1,456
  1,547
  1,643
  1,742
  1,846
  1,954
  2,066
  2,184
  2,307
  2,435
  2,569
  2,709
  2,856
  3,009
  3,169
  3,337
  3,513
  3,697
  3,890
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  622
  670
  730
  792
  857
  924
  994
  1,066
  1,142
  1,220
  1,301
  1,367
  1,456
  1,547
  1,643
  1,742
  1,846
  1,954
  2,066
  2,184
  2,307
  2,435
  2,569
  2,709
  2,856
  3,009
  3,169
  3,337
  3,513
  3,697
  3,890
Operating income, $m
  64
  81
  91
  100
  110
  120
  131
  142
  154
  166
  179
  210
  224
  238
  253
  268
  284
  300
  318
  336
  355
  374
  395
  417
  439
  463
  487
  513
  540
  568
  598
EBITDA, $m
  99
  114
  125
  136
  147
  159
  171
  184
  197
  211
  225
  240
  255
  271
  288
  305
  323
  342
  362
  383
  404
  427
  450
  475
  500
  527
  555
  585
  616
  648
  682
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
Earnings before tax, $m
  84
  80
  89
  98
  107
  117
  127
  137
  148
  160
  171
  202
  215
  228
  242
  256
  271
  287
  303
  320
  338
  356
  376
  396
  417
  439
  463
  487
  512
  539
  567
Tax expense, $m
  22
  22
  24
  26
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  125
  131
  138
  145
  153
Net income, $m
  62
  59
  65
  71
  78
  85
  93
  100
  108
  117
  125
  148
  157
  167
  177
  187
  198
  209
  221
  234
  247
  260
  274
  289
  305
  321
  338
  355
  374
  393
  414

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  227
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  707
  526
  574
  624
  676
  731
  787
  846
  907
  970
  1,036
  1,104
  1,175
  1,249
  1,326
  1,407
  1,490
  1,577
  1,668
  1,763
  1,862
  1,966
  2,074
  2,187
  2,306
  2,429
  2,559
  2,694
  2,836
  2,985
  3,141
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  480
  526
  574
  624
  676
  731
  787
  846
  907
  970
  1,036
  1,104
  1,175
  1,249
  1,326
  1,407
  1,490
  1,577
  1,668
  1,763
  1,862
  1,966
  2,074
  2,187
  2,306
  2,429
  2,559
  2,694
  2,836
  2,985
  3,141
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.429
  1.430
  1.430
  1.429
  1.430
  1.428
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.430
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
Average production assets, $m
  102
  112
  122
  133
  144
  156
  168
  180
  193
  207
  221
  235
  250
  266
  282
  299
  317
  336
  355
  375
  397
  419
  442
  466
  491
  517
  545
  574
  604
  636
  669
Working capital, $m
  255
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  62
  66
  71
  76
  81
  87
  92
  98
  104
  111
  117
  124
  131
  139
  146
  155
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201
  212
  223
  235
  247
Total debt, $m
  46
  52
  69
  86
  104
  122
  142
  162
  183
  205
  227
  251
  275
  301
  327
  355
  384
  414
  445
  478
  512
  547
  585
  623
  664
  707
  751
  798
  847
  898
  951
Total liabilities, $m
  175
  181
  198
  215
  233
  251
  271
  291
  312
  334
  356
  380
  404
  430
  456
  484
  513
  543
  574
  607
  641
  676
  714
  752
  793
  836
  880
  927
  976
  1,027
  1,080
Total equity, $m
  532
  345
  377
  410
  444
  479
  516
  555
  595
  636
  679
  724
  771
  819
  870
  923
  978
  1,035
  1,094
  1,157
  1,222
  1,290
  1,361
  1,435
  1,512
  1,594
  1,679
  1,768
  1,861
  1,958
  2,060
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  707
  526
  575
  625
  677
  730
  787
  846
  907
  970
  1,035
  1,104
  1,175
  1,249
  1,326
  1,407
  1,491
  1,578
  1,668
  1,764
  1,863
  1,966
  2,075
  2,187
  2,305
  2,430
  2,559
  2,695
  2,837
  2,985
  3,140
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.086
  0.150
  0.180
  0.210
  0.230
  0.260
  0.270
  0.290
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  62
  59
  65
  71
  78
  85
  93
  100
  108
  117
  125
  148
  157
  167
  177
  187
  198
  209
  221
  234
  247
  260
  274
  289
  305
  321
  338
  355
  374
  393
  414
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  35
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  84
Funds from operations, $m
  87
  91
  99
  107
  115
  123
  132
  142
  151
  161
  171
  177
  188
  200
  212
  225
  238
  251
  266
  281
  296
  313
  330
  347
  366
  385
  406
  427
  449
  473
  497
Change in working capital, $m
  -13
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
Cash from operations, $m
  100
  89
  95
  103
  111
  119
  128
  137
  146
  156
  166
  172
  183
  194
  206
  218
  231
  245
  259
  273
  288
  304
  321
  338
  357
  376
  396
  416
  438
  461
  485
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
New CAPEX, $m
  -26
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -55
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
Free cash flow, $m
  45
  66
  71
  77
  83
  90
  96
  103
  111
  118
  126
  130
  138
  147
  156
  166
  176
  186
  197
  209
  220
  233
  246
  259
  273
  288
  303
  319
  336
  354
  372
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -25
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -33
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  8
  82
  87
  94
  101
  108
  116
  124
  132
  140
  149
  153
  163
  172
  183
  194
  205
  216
  229
  241
  255
  268
  283
  298
  314
  331
  348
  366
  385
  405
  426
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -66
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  217
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  269
  56
  61
  67
  73
  79
  85
  92
  99
  106
  108
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  159
  169
  179
  190
  200
  212
  224
  236
  249
  263
  277
  292
  308
  324
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  258
  51
  53
  55
  56
  57
  58
  57
  57
  55
  51
  49
  47
  44
  41
  38
  35
  31
  28
  24
  21
  18
  15
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

ExlService Holdings, Inc. provides operations management solutions and analytics in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Operations Management, and Analytics. The Operations Management segment offers services in the areas of claims processing, subrogation, premium and benefit administration, agency management, account reconciliation, policy research, underwriting support, new business processing, policy servicing, premium audit, surveys, billing and collection, and customer service for the insurance industry; care management/population health solutions, payment integrity, revenue optimization, and customer engagement solutions for the healthcare industry; acquisitions, home moves, billing, meter exchanges, annual service visits, debt recoveries, and withdrawals for the utilities companies; servicing and processing banking products; managing and enhancing operational, financial, and analytical functions for clients in the travel, transportation, and logistics industries, as well as processing transportation and logistics transactions; and finance and accounting operations management solutions, including procure to pay, order to cash, hire to retire, record to report, and treasury and tax processes. In addition, it provides operations consulting services, such as process optimization, benchmarking and performance management, and business process automation; and finance consulting services, such as governance, risk and compliance, finance accounting support, finance organizational design, finance process optimization, and finance systems advisory. The Analytics segment provides predictive and prescriptive analytics in the areas of customer acquisition and lifecycle management, risk underwriting and pricing, operational effectiveness, credit and operational risk monitoring and governance, regulatory reporting, and data management. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ExlService Holdings (EXLS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.1
Price to Sales 2.5
Price to Book 3.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 23
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 6.8%
Total Debt to Equity 8.6%
Interest Coverage 85
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Return On Total Capital 11.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Return On Equity 12.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 34.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.7%
EBITDA Margin 17.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16%
Operating Margin 9.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Net Profit Margin 9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Effective Tax Rate 26.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

EXLS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EXLS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $686 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ExlService Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of ExlService Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EXLS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EXLS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ExlService Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ExlService Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EXLS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EXLS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for ExlService Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ExlService Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EXLS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EXLS are equal to 14.9%.

Life of production assets of 8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ExlService Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EXLS is equal to 5.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $532 million for ExlService Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.738 million for ExlService Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ExlService Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ExlService Holdings tops Street 1Q forecasts   [06:29AM  Associated Press]
▶ Exl Reports 2017 First Quarter Results   [06:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ EXL Wins Best Company of the Year in the Philippines   [Apr-26-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ExlService Holdings meets 4Q profit forecasts   [06:19AM  Associated Press]
▶ Should You Buy Houlihan Lokey Inc (HLI)?   [Dec-09-16 07:37PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ EXL Appoints Suren Kumar as Global Head of EXL Consulting   [Nov-17-16 08:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ EXL Reports 2016 Third Quarter Results   [06:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ EXL Acquires Banking Analytics Services Firm IQR Consulting   [Sep-06-16 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ EXL Reports 2016 Second Quarter Results   [06:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ EXL Appoints Mike Toma as Its First CTO   [Jul-12-16 05:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ EXL Reports 2016 First Quarter Results   [04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ EXL Healthcare Launches CareRadius┬« 3.1   [Apr-21-16 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
Stock chart of EXLS Financial statements of EXLS Annual reports of EXLS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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