Intrinsic value of ExlService Holdings - EXLS

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$47.70

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$47.70

 
Intrinsic value

$34.09

 
Up/down potential

-29%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EXLS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.24
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
Revenue, $m
  686
  731
  778
  827
  878
  932
  987
  1,045
  1,105
  1,168
  1,233
  1,302
  1,374
  1,448
  1,527
  1,609
  1,694
  1,784
  1,878
  1,977
  2,080
  2,188
  2,301
  2,420
  2,544
  2,674
  2,811
  2,955
  3,105
  3,263
  3,429
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  653
  693
  736
  780
  826
  874
  924
  976
  1,031
  1,088
  1,128
  1,191
  1,255
  1,323
  1,394
  1,469
  1,546
  1,628
  1,713
  1,802
  1,896
  1,994
  2,097
  2,205
  2,318
  2,437
  2,561
  2,691
  2,828
  2,972
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  622
  653
  693
  736
  780
  826
  874
  924
  976
  1,031
  1,088
  1,128
  1,191
  1,255
  1,323
  1,394
  1,469
  1,546
  1,628
  1,713
  1,802
  1,896
  1,994
  2,097
  2,205
  2,318
  2,437
  2,561
  2,691
  2,828
  2,972
Operating income, $m
  64
  79
  85
  92
  98
  105
  113
  121
  129
  137
  146
  173
  183
  193
  203
  214
  226
  238
  250
  263
  277
  292
  307
  322
  339
  356
  375
  394
  414
  435
  457
EBITDA, $m
  99
  111
  118
  126
  133
  141
  150
  159
  168
  177
  187
  198
  209
  220
  232
  244
  257
  271
  285
  300
  316
  332
  349
  367
  386
  406
  427
  449
  472
  496
  521
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
Earnings before tax, $m
  84
  77
  83
  90
  96
  103
  109
  117
  124
  132
  140
  168
  177
  186
  196
  206
  217
  228
  240
  252
  265
  279
  293
  308
  323
  339
  357
  375
  393
  413
  434
Tax expense, $m
  22
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  112
  117
Net income, $m
  62
  57
  61
  65
  70
  75
  80
  85
  91
  96
  102
  122
  129
  136
  143
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
  193
  203
  214
  225
  236
  248
  260
  273
  287
  302
  317

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  227
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  707
  512
  545
  579
  615
  652
  691
  731
  773
  817
  863
  911
  961
  1,014
  1,068
  1,126
  1,186
  1,249
  1,314
  1,383
  1,455
  1,531
  1,610
  1,693
  1,780
  1,871
  1,967
  2,068
  2,173
  2,283
  2,399
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  480
  512
  545
  579
  615
  652
  691
  731
  773
  817
  863
  911
  961
  1,014
  1,068
  1,126
  1,186
  1,249
  1,314
  1,383
  1,455
  1,531
  1,610
  1,693
  1,780
  1,871
  1,967
  2,068
  2,173
  2,283
  2,399
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.429
  1.428
  1.428
  1.428
  1.428
  1.429
  1.428
  1.430
  1.429
  1.430
  1.429
  1.429
  1.430
  1.428
  1.430
  1.429
  1.428
  1.428
  1.429
  1.430
  1.430
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
Average production assets, $m
  102
  109
  116
  123
  131
  139
  147
  156
  165
  174
  184
  194
  205
  216
  227
  240
  252
  266
  280
  295
  310
  326
  343
  361
  379
  398
  419
  440
  463
  486
  511
Working capital, $m
  255
  40
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  114
  120
  127
  133
  140
  147
  155
  163
  171
  179
  189
Total debt, $m
  46
  47
  58
  70
  82
  95
  109
  122
  137
  152
  168
  184
  202
  220
  239
  258
  279
  300
  323
  347
  372
  398
  425
  453
  483
  515
  548
  582
  618
  656
  696
Total liabilities, $m
  175
  176
  187
  199
  211
  224
  238
  251
  266
  281
  297
  313
  331
  349
  368
  387
  408
  429
  452
  476
  501
  527
  554
  582
  612
  644
  677
  711
  747
  785
  825
Total equity, $m
  532
  336
  357
  380
  403
  428
  453
  480
  507
  536
  566
  598
  631
  665
  701
  738
  778
  819
  862
  907
  955
  1,004
  1,056
  1,111
  1,168
  1,228
  1,290
  1,356
  1,425
  1,498
  1,574
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  707
  512
  544
  579
  614
  652
  691
  731
  773
  817
  863
  911
  962
  1,014
  1,069
  1,125
  1,186
  1,248
  1,314
  1,383
  1,456
  1,531
  1,610
  1,693
  1,780
  1,872
  1,967
  2,067
  2,172
  2,283
  2,399
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.086
  0.140
  0.160
  0.180
  0.200
  0.220
  0.240
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  62
  57
  61
  65
  70
  75
  80
  85
  91
  96
  102
  122
  129
  136
  143
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
  193
  203
  214
  225
  236
  248
  260
  273
  287
  302
  317
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  35
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
Funds from operations, $m
  87
  89
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  137
  144
  147
  154
  163
  171
  180
  190
  200
  210
  221
  232
  244
  257
  270
  283
  298
  313
  328
  345
  362
  381
Change in working capital, $m
  -13
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
Cash from operations, $m
  100
  87
  91
  97
  102
  108
  114
  120
  127
  133
  141
  143
  151
  159
  167
  176
  185
  195
  205
  215
  227
  238
  250
  263
  276
  290
  305
  321
  337
  354
  372
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
New CAPEX, $m
  -26
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -55
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
Free cash flow, $m
  45
  68
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166
  174
  183
  193
  203
  213
  224
  235
  247
  259
  272
  286
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -25
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -33
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  8
  79
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  126
  133
  140
  147
  155
  163
  171
  180
  189
  199
  209
  220
  231
  243
  255
  268
  281
  296
  310
  326
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -66
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  217
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  275
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  95
  100
  106
  111
  117
  124
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  168
  177
  186
  195
  205
  216
  226
  238
  250
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  264
  55
  56
  56
  56
  55
  54
  53
  52
  50
  45
  43
  40
  37
  34
  31
  28
  25
  22
  19
  17
  14
  12
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

ExlService Holdings, Inc. provides operations management solutions and analytics in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Operations Management, and Analytics. The Operations Management segment offers services in the areas of claims processing, subrogation, premium and benefit administration, agency management, account reconciliation, policy research, underwriting support, new business processing, policy servicing, premium audit, surveys, billing and collection, and customer service for the insurance industry; care management/population health solutions, payment integrity, revenue optimization, and customer engagement solutions for the healthcare industry; acquisitions, home moves, billing, meter exchanges, annual service visits, debt recoveries, and withdrawals for the utilities companies; servicing and processing banking products; managing and enhancing operational, financial, and analytical functions for clients in the travel, transportation, and logistics industries, as well as processing transportation and logistics transactions; and finance and accounting operations management solutions, including procure to pay, order to cash, hire to retire, record to report, and treasury and tax processes. In addition, it provides operations consulting services, such as process optimization, benchmarking and performance management, and business process automation; and finance consulting services, such as governance, risk and compliance, finance accounting support, finance organizational design, finance process optimization, and finance systems advisory. The Analytics segment provides predictive and prescriptive analytics in the areas of customer acquisition and lifecycle management, risk underwriting and pricing, operational effectiveness, credit and operational risk monitoring and governance, regulatory reporting, and data management. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ExlService Holdings (EXLS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25.9
Price to Sales 2.3
Price to Book 3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16
Price to Free Cash Flow 21.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 23
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 6.8%
Total Debt to Equity 8.6%
Interest Coverage 85
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Return On Total Capital 11.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Return On Equity 12.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 34.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.7%
EBITDA Margin 17.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16%
Operating Margin 9.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Net Profit Margin 9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Effective Tax Rate 26.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

EXLS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EXLS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $686 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ExlService Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of ExlService Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EXLS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EXLS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ExlService Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ExlService Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EXLS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EXLS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for ExlService Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ExlService Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EXLS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EXLS are equal to 14.9%.

Life of production assets of 8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ExlService Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EXLS is equal to 5.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $532 million for ExlService Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.995 million for ExlService Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ExlService Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.


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Stock chart of EXLS Financial statements of EXLS
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