Intrinsic value of ExlService Holdings - EXLS

Previous Close

$61.27

  Intrinsic Value

$38.56

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-37%

Previous close

$61.27

 
Intrinsic value

$38.56

 
Up/down potential

-37%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of EXLS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.24
  11.20
  10.58
  10.02
  9.52
  9.07
  8.66
  8.29
  7.97
  7.67
  7.40
  7.16
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.03
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
Revenue, $m
  686
  763
  844
  928
  1,016
  1,109
  1,205
  1,305
  1,408
  1,516
  1,629
  1,745
  1,867
  1,993
  2,124
  2,260
  2,402
  2,549
  2,703
  2,864
  3,031
  3,205
  3,387
  3,577
  3,776
  3,983
  4,200
  4,427
  4,664
  4,913
  5,173
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  680
  750
  823
  900
  980
  1,063
  1,149
  1,239
  1,333
  1,430
  1,513
  1,618
  1,727
  1,841
  1,959
  2,082
  2,210
  2,343
  2,482
  2,627
  2,778
  2,936
  3,101
  3,273
  3,452
  3,640
  3,837
  4,043
  4,258
  4,483
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  622
  680
  750
  823
  900
  980
  1,063
  1,149
  1,239
  1,333
  1,430
  1,513
  1,618
  1,727
  1,841
  1,959
  2,082
  2,210
  2,343
  2,482
  2,627
  2,778
  2,936
  3,101
  3,273
  3,452
  3,640
  3,837
  4,043
  4,258
  4,483
Operating income, $m
  64
  83
  94
  105
  117
  129
  142
  155
  169
  183
  198
  233
  249
  266
  283
  301
  320
  340
  360
  382
  404
  427
  451
  477
  503
  531
  560
  590
  622
  655
  689
EBITDA, $m
  99
  116
  128
  141
  154
  168
  183
  198
  214
  230
  247
  265
  284
  303
  323
  343
  365
  387
  411
  435
  460
  487
  514
  543
  573
  605
  638
  672
  708
  746
  786
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
Earnings before tax, $m
  84
  82
  92
  102
  113
  125
  137
  150
  163
  176
  190
  223
  239
  254
  271
  288
  306
  324
  343
  363
  384
  406
  429
  453
  478
  503
  531
  559
  589
  620
  652
Tax expense, $m
  22
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  44
  48
  51
  60
  64
  69
  73
  78
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  167
  176
Net income, $m
  62
  60
  67
  75
  83
  91
  100
  109
  119
  129
  139
  163
  174
  186
  198
  210
  223
  237
  251
  265
  281
  296
  313
  330
  349
  368
  387
  408
  430
  452
  476

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  227
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  707
  534
  590
  649
  711
  776
  843
  913
  986
  1,061
  1,140
  1,221
  1,306
  1,394
  1,486
  1,581
  1,681
  1,784
  1,892
  2,004
  2,121
  2,243
  2,370
  2,503
  2,642
  2,787
  2,939
  3,098
  3,264
  3,438
  3,620
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  480
  534
  590
  649
  711
  776
  843
  913
  986
  1,061
  1,140
  1,221
  1,306
  1,394
  1,486
  1,581
  1,681
  1,784
  1,892
  2,004
  2,121
  2,243
  2,370
  2,503
  2,642
  2,787
  2,939
  3,098
  3,264
  3,438
  3,620
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.429
  1.429
  1.431
  1.430
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.428
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.430
  1.430
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
Average production assets, $m
  102
  114
  126
  138
  151
  165
  179
  194
  210
  226
  243
  260
  278
  297
  316
  337
  358
  380
  403
  427
  452
  478
  505
  533
  563
  593
  626
  660
  695
  732
  771
Working capital, $m
  255
  42
  46
  51
  56
  61
  66
  72
  77
  83
  90
  96
  103
  110
  117
  124
  132
  140
  149
  157
  167
  176
  186
  197
  208
  219
  231
  243
  257
  270
  284
Total debt, $m
  46
  55
  74
  94
  116
  138
  161
  185
  210
  236
  263
  291
  320
  351
  382
  415
  449
  485
  522
  560
  601
  643
  686
  732
  780
  830
  882
  937
  994
  1,054
  1,116
Total liabilities, $m
  175
  184
  203
  223
  245
  267
  290
  314
  339
  365
  392
  420
  449
  480
  511
  544
  578
  614
  651
  689
  730
  772
  815
  861
  909
  959
  1,011
  1,066
  1,123
  1,183
  1,245
Total equity, $m
  532
  350
  387
  426
  467
  509
  553
  599
  647
  696
  748
  801
  857
  915
  975
  1,037
  1,103
  1,170
  1,241
  1,315
  1,391
  1,471
  1,555
  1,642
  1,733
  1,829
  1,928
  2,032
  2,141
  2,255
  2,375
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  707
  534
  590
  649
  712
  776
  843
  913
  986
  1,061
  1,140
  1,221
  1,306
  1,395
  1,486
  1,581
  1,681
  1,784
  1,892
  2,004
  2,121
  2,243
  2,370
  2,503
  2,642
  2,788
  2,939
  3,098
  3,264
  3,438
  3,620
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.086
  0.160
  0.190
  0.220
  0.250
  0.270
  0.290
  0.310
  0.320
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656
  0.656

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  62
  60
  67
  75
  83
  91
  100
  109
  119
  129
  139
  163
  174
  186
  198
  210
  223
  237
  251
  265
  281
  296
  313
  330
  349
  368
  387
  408
  430
  452
  476
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  35
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
Funds from operations, $m
  87
  93
  101
  111
  120
  131
  141
  152
  164
  175
  188
  196
  209
  223
  237
  252
  268
  284
  301
  319
  337
  356
  376
  397
  419
  442
  466
  491
  517
  544
  573
Change in working capital, $m
  -13
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
Cash from operations, $m
  100
  88
  97
  106
  116
  126
  136
  147
  158
  170
  182
  189
  202
  216
  230
  245
  260
  276
  292
  310
  328
  347
  366
  387
  408
  430
  454
  478
  504
  530
  558
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
New CAPEX, $m
  -26
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -55
  -25
  -26
  -29
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -124
  -130
Free cash flow, $m
  45
  64
  71
  78
  85
  93
  101
  109
  118
  127
  137
  141
  152
  162
  173
  185
  197
  209
  222
  236
  250
  264
  279
  295
  312
  329
  347
  366
  386
  406
  428
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -25
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -33
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  8
  83
  90
  98
  106
  115
  124
  133
  143
  153
  164
  170
  181
  193
  205
  218
  231
  245
  259
  274
  290
  306
  323
  341
  360
  379
  399
  421
  443
  466
  491
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -66
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  217
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  264
  53
  59
  66
  73
  80
  88
  95
  104
  112
  116
  125
  135
  145
  155
  166
  177
  188
  201
  213
  226
  240
  254
  268
  284
  300
  317
  334
  352
  371
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  253
  49
  52
  54
  56
  58
  59
  60
  60
  59
  55
  53
  51
  49
  46
  42
  38
  35
  31
  27
  23
  20
  17
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

ExlService Holdings, Inc. is an operations management and analytics company. The Company segments include Insurance; Healthcare; Travel, Transportation and Logistics; Finance and Accounting (F&A); Analytics, and All Other. The Insurance operating segment serves property and casualty insurance, life insurance, disability insurance, annuity and retirement services companies. The Healthcare operating segment serves healthcare payers and providers. The Travel, Transportation and Logistics operating segment primarily serves clients in the travel, transport and logistics industries. The F&A operating segment provides finance and accounting business process management (BPM) services across an array of F&A processes. The Analytics services focus on driving business outcomes for its customers by generating data-driven insights across all parts of its customers' businesses. The All Other segment includes banking and financial services, utilities and consulting operating segments.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ExlService Holdings (EXLS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 33.2
Price to Sales 3
Price to Book 3.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 27.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 23
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 6.8%
Total Debt to Equity 8.6%
Interest Coverage 85
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Return On Total Capital 11.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Return On Equity 12.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 34.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.7%
EBITDA Margin 17.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16%
Operating Margin 9.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Net Profit Margin 9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Effective Tax Rate 26.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

EXLS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EXLS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $686 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ExlService Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of ExlService Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EXLS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EXLS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ExlService Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ExlService Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EXLS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EXLS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for ExlService Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ExlService Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EXLS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EXLS are equal to 14.9%.

Life of production assets of 8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ExlService Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EXLS is equal to 5.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $532 million for ExlService Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.824 million for ExlService Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ExlService Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ExlService Holdings beats Street 3Q forecasts   [Oct-26-17 08:17AM  Associated Press]
▶ EXL Reports 2017 Third Quarter Results   [06:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Top Ranked Growth Stocks to Buy for August 17th   [Aug-17-17 09:42AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Growth Stocks to Buy for August 2nd   [Aug-02-17 09:53AM  Zacks]
▶ ExlService Holdings tops Street 2Q forecasts   [01:39AM  Associated Press]
▶ EXL Reports 2017 Second Quarter Results   [06:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ EXL Launches New Delivery Centers in Chennai and Hyderabad   [Jun-26-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Biotech Musical Chairs: Who Leads Next   [May-31-17 06:00AM  Investopedia]
▶ ExlService Holdings tops Street 1Q forecasts   [06:29AM  Associated Press]
▶ Exl Reports 2017 First Quarter Results   [06:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ EXL Wins Best Company of the Year in the Philippines   [Apr-26-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ExlService Holdings meets 4Q profit forecasts   [06:19AM  Associated Press]
▶ Should You Buy Houlihan Lokey Inc (HLI)?   [Dec-09-16 07:37PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ EXL Appoints Suren Kumar as Global Head of EXL Consulting   [Nov-17-16 08:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ EXL Reports 2016 Third Quarter Results   [06:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ EXL Acquires Banking Analytics Services Firm IQR Consulting   [Sep-06-16 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of EXLS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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