Intrinsic value of Expeditors International of Washington - EXPD

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$55.36

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EXPD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 9.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -7.84
  2.90
  3.11
  3.30
  3.47
  3.62
  3.76
  3.88
  4.00
  4.10
  4.19
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.47
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.72
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
Revenue, $m
  6,098
  6,275
  6,470
  6,683
  6,915
  7,166
  7,435
  7,724
  8,033
  8,362
  8,712
  9,083
  9,478
  9,895
  10,337
  10,805
  11,298
  11,819
  12,369
  12,948
  13,559
  14,202
  14,880
  15,593
  16,343
  17,133
  17,964
  18,838
  19,757
  20,723
  21,738
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  5,591
  5,765
  5,955
  6,161
  6,385
  6,625
  6,882
  7,157
  7,450
  7,762
  8,092
  8,443
  8,816
  9,209
  9,625
  10,065
  10,529
  11,019
  11,535
  12,079
  12,652
  13,256
  13,891
  14,560
  15,263
  16,004
  16,782
  17,601
  18,461
  19,366
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,428
  5,591
  5,765
  5,955
  6,161
  6,385
  6,625
  6,882
  7,157
  7,450
  7,762
  8,092
  8,443
  8,816
  9,209
  9,625
  10,065
  10,529
  11,019
  11,535
  12,079
  12,652
  13,256
  13,891
  14,560
  15,263
  16,004
  16,782
  17,601
  18,461
  19,366
Operating income, $m
  670
  684
  705
  729
  754
  781
  811
  842
  876
  912
  950
  991
  1,034
  1,080
  1,128
  1,179
  1,233
  1,290
  1,350
  1,413
  1,480
  1,550
  1,624
  1,702
  1,784
  1,870
  1,960
  2,056
  2,156
  2,262
  2,372
EBITDA, $m
  717
  732
  755
  780
  807
  836
  868
  901
  937
  976
  1,017
  1,060
  1,106
  1,155
  1,206
  1,261
  1,318
  1,379
  1,443
  1,511
  1,582
  1,657
  1,736
  1,820
  1,907
  1,999
  2,096
  2,198
  2,306
  2,418
  2,537
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  69
  74
  79
Earnings before tax, $m
  687
  684
  704
  727
  751
  777
  805
  835
  867
  901
  938
  977
  1,018
  1,062
  1,107
  1,156
  1,207
  1,262
  1,319
  1,379
  1,442
  1,509
  1,580
  1,654
  1,732
  1,814
  1,900
  1,991
  2,087
  2,187
  2,293
Tax expense, $m
  254
  185
  190
  196
  203
  210
  217
  225
  234
  243
  253
  264
  275
  287
  299
  312
  326
  341
  356
  372
  389
  408
  427
  447
  468
  490
  513
  538
  563
  591
  619
Net income, $m
  431
  499
  514
  530
  548
  567
  587
  609
  633
  658
  684
  713
  743
  775
  808
  844
  881
  921
  963
  1,007
  1,053
  1,102
  1,153
  1,207
  1,264
  1,324
  1,387
  1,454
  1,523
  1,597
  1,674

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  974
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,791
  1,870
  1,928
  1,991
  2,061
  2,135
  2,215
  2,302
  2,394
  2,492
  2,596
  2,707
  2,824
  2,949
  3,080
  3,219
  3,367
  3,522
  3,686
  3,858
  4,040
  4,232
  4,434
  4,646
  4,870
  5,105
  5,353
  5,613
  5,887
  6,175
  6,477
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,817
  1,870
  1,928
  1,991
  2,061
  2,135
  2,215
  2,302
  2,394
  2,492
  2,596
  2,707
  2,824
  2,949
  3,080
  3,219
  3,367
  3,522
  3,686
  3,858
  4,040
  4,232
  4,434
  4,646
  4,870
  5,105
  5,353
  5,613
  5,887
  6,175
  6,477
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.356
  3.356
  3.356
  3.357
  3.355
  3.356
  3.357
  3.355
  3.355
  3.356
  3.356
  3.355
  3.356
  3.355
  3.356
  3.357
  3.356
  3.356
  3.356
  3.356
  3.356
  3.356
  3.356
  3.356
  3.356
  3.356
  3.356
  3.356
  3.356
  3.356
  3.356
Average production assets, $m
  531
  546
  563
  581
  602
  623
  647
  672
  699
  727
  758
  790
  825
  861
  899
  940
  983
  1,028
  1,076
  1,126
  1,180
  1,236
  1,295
  1,357
  1,422
  1,491
  1,563
  1,639
  1,719
  1,803
  1,891
Working capital, $m
  1,289
  326
  336
  348
  360
  373
  387
  402
  418
  435
  453
  472
  493
  515
  538
  562
  588
  615
  643
  673
  705
  739
  774
  811
  850
  891
  934
  980
  1,027
  1,078
  1,130
Total debt, $m
  0
  28
  58
  92
  128
  166
  208
  253
  301
  352
  406
  464
  525
  590
  659
  731
  808
  889
  974
  1,064
  1,159
  1,259
  1,364
  1,475
  1,591
  1,714
  1,843
  1,978
  2,121
  2,271
  2,429
Total liabilities, $m
  946
  974
  1,004
  1,038
  1,074
  1,112
  1,154
  1,199
  1,247
  1,298
  1,352
  1,410
  1,471
  1,536
  1,605
  1,677
  1,754
  1,835
  1,920
  2,010
  2,105
  2,205
  2,310
  2,421
  2,537
  2,660
  2,789
  2,924
  3,067
  3,217
  3,375
Total equity, $m
  1,845
  896
  923
  954
  987
  1,023
  1,061
  1,102
  1,146
  1,193
  1,243
  1,296
  1,353
  1,412
  1,475
  1,542
  1,613
  1,687
  1,765
  1,848
  1,935
  2,027
  2,124
  2,226
  2,333
  2,445
  2,564
  2,689
  2,820
  2,958
  3,103
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,791
  1,870
  1,927
  1,992
  2,061
  2,135
  2,215
  2,301
  2,393
  2,491
  2,595
  2,706
  2,824
  2,948
  3,080
  3,219
  3,367
  3,522
  3,685
  3,858
  4,040
  4,232
  4,434
  4,647
  4,870
  5,105
  5,353
  5,613
  5,887
  6,175
  6,478
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.030
  0.060
  0.100
  0.130
  0.160
  0.200
  0.230
  0.260
  0.300
  0.330
  0.360
  0.390
  0.420
  0.450
  0.470
  0.500
  0.530
  0.550
  0.580
  0.600
  0.620
  0.640
  0.660
  0.680
  0.700
  0.720
  0.740
  0.750
  0.770
  0.780
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  431
  499
  514
  530
  548
  567
  587
  609
  633
  658
  684
  713
  743
  775
  808
  844
  881
  921
  963
  1,007
  1,053
  1,102
  1,153
  1,207
  1,264
  1,324
  1,387
  1,454
  1,523
  1,597
  1,674
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  107
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
  149
  157
  164
Funds from operations, $m
  519
  548
  564
  582
  601
  622
  645
  669
  694
  722
  751
  782
  815
  850
  887
  926
  967
  1,010
  1,056
  1,105
  1,156
  1,209
  1,266
  1,325
  1,388
  1,454
  1,523
  1,596
  1,673
  1,753
  1,838
Change in working capital, $m
  -10
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
Cash from operations, $m
  529
  544
  554
  571
  589
  609
  631
  654
  678
  705
  733
  763
  794
  828
  864
  901
  941
  983
  1,028
  1,074
  1,124
  1,176
  1,231
  1,288
  1,349
  1,413
  1,480
  1,551
  1,625
  1,703
  1,785
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -149
  -157
New CAPEX, $m
  -59
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -53
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -166
  -175
  -183
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -223
  -233
  -245
Free cash flow, $m
  476
  482
  489
  503
  518
  535
  553
  572
  593
  615
  639
  664
  691
  720
  750
  783
  817
  852
  890
  930
  973
  1,017
  1,064
  1,114
  1,166
  1,220
  1,278
  1,339
  1,403
  1,470
  1,540
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  28
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  129
  136
  143
  150
  158
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -152
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -153
  28
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  129
  136
  143
  150
  158
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  312
  510
  520
  536
  554
  574
  595
  617
  641
  666
  694
  722
  753
  785
  819
  855
  893
  933
  976
  1,020
  1,068
  1,117
  1,169
  1,224
  1,282
  1,343
  1,407
  1,474
  1,545
  1,620
  1,698
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -153
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  974
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,460
  492
  506
  521
  538
  556
  576
  597
  620
  644
  669
  696
  725
  756
  788
  823
  859
  897
  938
  980
  1,025
  1,073
  1,123
  1,175
  1,230
  1,289
  1,350
  1,414
  1,482
  1,553
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,400
  450
  440
  429
  417
  404
  389
  373
  356
  337
  318
  297
  276
  254
  231
  209
  187
  165
  144
  125
  106
  89
  74
  60
  48
  38
  29
  22
  16
  12
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. provides logistics services. The company offers airfreight services, including air freight consolidation and forwarding; ocean freight and ocean services comprising ocean freight consolidation, direct ocean forwarding, and order management; customs brokerage, intra-continental ground transportation and delivery, and warehousing and distribution services; and customs clearance, purchase order management, vendor consolidation, time-definite transportation services, cargo insurance, and other logistics solutions. It acts as a freight consolidator or as an agent for the airline, which carries the shipment. The company also provides ancillary services that include preparation of shipping and customs documentation, packing, crating, insurance services, negotiation of letters of credit, and the preparation of documentation to comply with local export laws. Its customers include retailing and wholesaling, electronics, and industrial and manufacturing companies. The company has operations in the Americas, North Asia, South Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and India. Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.1
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 5.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 21.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 34.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 16.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Return On Total Capital 24.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 23%
Return On Equity 24.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 23%
Asset Turnover 2.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.9%
EBITDA Margin 12%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Operating Margin 11%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Net Profit Margin 7.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Effective Tax Rate 37%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.5%
Payout Ratio 33.6%

EXPD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EXPD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6098 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Expeditors International of Washington. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Expeditors International of Washington. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EXPD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EXPD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Expeditors International of Washington, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Expeditors International of Washington.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EXPD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EXPD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Expeditors International of Washington.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Expeditors International of Washington. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EXPD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EXPD are equal to 8.7%.

Life of production assets of 11.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Expeditors International of Washington operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EXPD is equal to 5.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1845 million for Expeditors International of Washington - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 178.946 million for Expeditors International of Washington is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Expeditors International of Washington at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $9.9 billion.


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Stock chart of EXPD Financial statements of EXPD Annual reports of EXPD
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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