Intrinsic value of Exterran - EXTN

Previous Close

$28.40

  Intrinsic Value

$3.87

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-86%

Previous close

$28.40

 
Intrinsic value

$3.87

 
Up/down potential

-86%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of EXTN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -42.51
  42.80
  39.02
  35.62
  32.56
  29.80
  27.32
  25.09
  23.08
  21.27
  19.64
  18.18
  16.86
  15.68
  14.61
  13.65
  12.78
  12.00
  11.30
  10.67
  10.11
  9.60
  9.14
  8.72
  8.35
  8.02
  7.71
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
Revenue, $m
  1,029
  1,469
  2,043
  2,770
  3,672
  4,767
  6,069
  7,592
  9,344
  11,331
  13,557
  16,022
  18,723
  21,659
  24,822
  28,210
  31,816
  35,635
  39,664
  43,897
  48,334
  52,971
  57,811
  62,853
  68,102
  73,560
  79,234
  85,131
  91,259
  97,627
  104,247
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,283
  1,783
  2,419
  3,206
  4,161
  5,298
  6,627
  8,157
  9,892
  11,835
  13,987
  16,346
  18,908
  21,670
  24,627
  27,775
  31,110
  34,626
  38,322
  42,195
  46,244
  50,469
  54,871
  59,453
  64,218
  69,172
  74,320
  79,669
  85,229
  91,008
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  200
  205
  210
  215
  221
  226
  232
  238
  244
  250
  256
  262
  269
  276
  282
  289
  297
  304
  312
  320
  328
  336
  344
  353
  362
  371
  380
  389
  399
  409
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,088
  1,483
  1,988
  2,629
  3,421
  4,382
  5,524
  6,859
  8,395
  10,136
  12,085
  14,243
  16,608
  19,177
  21,946
  24,909
  28,064
  31,407
  34,930
  38,634
  42,515
  46,572
  50,805
  55,215
  59,806
  64,580
  69,543
  74,700
  80,058
  85,628
  91,417
Operating income, $m
  -59
  -13
  55
  142
  251
  385
  545
  732
  949
  1,196
  1,472
  1,779
  2,116
  2,482
  2,877
  3,300
  3,751
  4,229
  4,733
  5,263
  5,819
  6,400
  7,006
  7,638
  8,296
  8,981
  9,692
  10,432
  11,201
  12,000
  12,830
EBITDA, $m
  79
  184
  329
  514
  745
  1,026
  1,360
  1,753
  2,205
  2,719
  3,295
  3,933
  4,633
  5,393
  6,214
  7,092
  8,028
  9,019
  10,065
  11,164
  12,316
  13,521
  14,778
  16,087
  17,451
  18,869
  20,343
  21,876
  23,468
  25,123
  26,844
Interest expense (income), $m
  29
  23
  46
  76
  115
  162
  219
  288
  368
  460
  564
  681
  810
  952
  1,106
  1,272
  1,450
  1,640
  1,840
  2,052
  2,274
  2,507
  2,750
  3,005
  3,269
  3,545
  3,832
  4,129
  4,439
  4,761
  5,095
Earnings before tax, $m
  -70
  -36
  8
  66
  137
  223
  325
  445
  581
  736
  908
  1,098
  1,305
  1,530
  1,771
  2,028
  2,301
  2,589
  2,893
  3,212
  3,545
  3,893
  4,256
  4,634
  5,027
  5,436
  5,861
  6,302
  6,761
  7,239
  7,735
Tax expense, $m
  124
  0
  2
  18
  37
  60
  88
  120
  157
  199
  245
  296
  352
  413
  478
  548
  621
  699
  781
  867
  957
  1,051
  1,149
  1,251
  1,357
  1,468
  1,582
  1,702
  1,826
  1,954
  2,088
Net income, $m
  -228
  -36
  6
  48
  100
  163
  237
  325
  424
  537
  663
  802
  953
  1,117
  1,293
  1,480
  1,680
  1,890
  2,112
  2,344
  2,588
  2,842
  3,107
  3,383
  3,670
  3,968
  4,278
  4,601
  4,936
  5,284
  5,647

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  36
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,375
  1,913
  2,660
  3,607
  4,782
  6,207
  7,902
  9,885
  12,166
  14,754
  17,653
  20,862
  24,380
  28,201
  32,321
  36,732
  41,427
  46,400
  51,645
  57,158
  62,934
  68,973
  75,275
  81,840
  88,674
  95,782
  103,170
  110,848
  118,827
  127,119
  135,738
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,339
  1,913
  2,660
  3,607
  4,782
  6,207
  7,902
  9,885
  12,166
  14,754
  17,653
  20,862
  24,380
  28,201
  32,321
  36,732
  41,427
  46,400
  51,645
  57,158
  62,934
  68,973
  75,275
  81,840
  88,674
  95,782
  103,170
  110,848
  118,827
  127,119
  135,738
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
Average production assets, $m
  844
  1,205
  1,675
  2,272
  3,011
  3,909
  4,977
  6,225
  7,662
  9,292
  11,117
  13,138
  15,353
  17,760
  20,354
  23,132
  26,089
  29,221
  32,524
  35,996
  39,634
  43,437
  47,405
  51,540
  55,843
  60,319
  64,972
  69,808
  74,833
  80,055
  85,483
Working capital, $m
  178
  203
  282
  382
  507
  658
  838
  1,048
  1,289
  1,564
  1,871
  2,211
  2,584
  2,989
  3,426
  3,893
  4,391
  4,918
  5,474
  6,058
  6,670
  7,310
  7,978
  8,674
  9,398
  10,151
  10,934
  11,748
  12,594
  13,473
  14,386
Total debt, $m
  349
  700
  1,156
  1,735
  2,453
  3,323
  4,359
  5,571
  6,965
  8,546
  10,317
  12,278
  14,427
  16,762
  19,279
  21,974
  24,843
  27,882
  31,086
  34,454
  37,984
  41,674
  45,524
  49,535
  53,711
  58,054
  62,568
  67,259
  72,134
  77,201
  82,467
Total liabilities, $m
  818
  1,169
  1,625
  2,204
  2,922
  3,792
  4,828
  6,040
  7,434
  9,015
  10,786
  12,747
  14,896
  17,231
  19,748
  22,443
  25,312
  28,351
  31,555
  34,923
  38,453
  42,143
  45,993
  50,004
  54,180
  58,523
  63,037
  67,728
  72,603
  77,670
  82,936
Total equity, $m
  557
  744
  1,035
  1,403
  1,860
  2,414
  3,074
  3,845
  4,733
  5,739
  6,867
  8,115
  9,484
  10,970
  12,573
  14,289
  16,115
  18,050
  20,090
  22,234
  24,481
  26,831
  29,282
  31,836
  34,494
  37,259
  40,133
  43,120
  46,224
  49,449
  52,802
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,375
  1,913
  2,660
  3,607
  4,782
  6,206
  7,902
  9,885
  12,167
  14,754
  17,653
  20,862
  24,380
  28,201
  32,321
  36,732
  41,427
  46,401
  51,645
  57,157
  62,934
  68,974
  75,275
  81,840
  88,674
  95,782
  103,170
  110,848
  118,827
  127,119
  135,738
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.627
  0.940
  1.120
  1.240
  1.320
  1.380
  1.420
  1.450
  1.470
  1.490
  1.500
  1.510
  1.520
  1.530
  1.530
  1.540
  1.540
  1.540
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.560
  1.560
  1.560
  1.560
  1.560
  1.560
  1.560
  1.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -228
  -36
  6
  48
  100
  163
  237
  325
  424
  537
  663
  802
  953
  1,117
  1,293
  1,480
  1,680
  1,890
  2,112
  2,344
  2,588
  2,842
  3,107
  3,383
  3,670
  3,968
  4,278
  4,601
  4,936
  5,284
  5,647
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  138
  198
  275
  372
  494
  641
  816
  1,021
  1,256
  1,523
  1,822
  2,154
  2,517
  2,911
  3,337
  3,792
  4,277
  4,790
  5,332
  5,901
  6,497
  7,121
  7,771
  8,449
  9,155
  9,888
  10,651
  11,444
  12,268
  13,124
  14,014
Funds from operations, $m
  502
  161
  281
  420
  593
  803
  1,053
  1,345
  1,680
  2,060
  2,485
  2,955
  3,470
  4,028
  4,629
  5,273
  5,957
  6,681
  7,444
  8,245
  9,085
  9,963
  10,878
  11,832
  12,824
  13,857
  14,929
  16,045
  17,204
  18,408
  19,660
Change in working capital, $m
  239
  61
  79
  100
  124
  151
  180
  210
  242
  274
  307
  340
  373
  405
  437
  467
  498
  527
  556
  584
  612
  640
  668
  696
  724
  753
  783
  814
  846
  879
  913
Cash from operations, $m
  263
  100
  202
  320
  469
  652
  874
  1,135
  1,439
  1,786
  2,178
  2,615
  3,097
  3,623
  4,193
  4,805
  5,459
  6,153
  6,888
  7,661
  8,473
  9,323
  10,210
  11,136
  12,100
  13,103
  14,146
  15,231
  16,358
  17,529
  18,747
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -138
  -198
  -275
  -372
  -494
  -641
  -816
  -1,021
  -1,256
  -1,523
  -1,822
  -2,154
  -2,517
  -2,911
  -3,337
  -3,792
  -4,277
  -4,790
  -5,332
  -5,901
  -6,497
  -7,121
  -7,771
  -8,449
  -9,155
  -9,888
  -10,651
  -11,444
  -12,268
  -13,124
New CAPEX, $m
  -74
  -361
  -470
  -597
  -740
  -897
  -1,068
  -1,249
  -1,437
  -1,630
  -1,825
  -2,021
  -2,215
  -2,407
  -2,594
  -2,778
  -2,957
  -3,132
  -3,303
  -3,471
  -3,638
  -3,803
  -3,968
  -4,135
  -4,304
  -4,476
  -4,653
  -4,835
  -5,025
  -5,222
  -5,428
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -24
  -499
  -668
  -872
  -1,112
  -1,391
  -1,709
  -2,065
  -2,458
  -2,886
  -3,348
  -3,843
  -4,369
  -4,924
  -5,505
  -6,115
  -6,749
  -7,409
  -8,093
  -8,803
  -9,539
  -10,300
  -11,089
  -11,906
  -12,753
  -13,631
  -14,541
  -15,486
  -16,469
  -17,490
  -18,552
Free cash flow, $m
  239
  -399
  -466
  -551
  -643
  -739
  -835
  -929
  -1,019
  -1,100
  -1,170
  -1,228
  -1,272
  -1,301
  -1,313
  -1,310
  -1,290
  -1,255
  -1,206
  -1,142
  -1,066
  -978
  -879
  -770
  -653
  -527
  -395
  -256
  -111
  40
  195
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -180
  351
  456
  579
  718
  871
  1,036
  1,211
  1,394
  1,581
  1,771
  1,961
  2,149
  2,335
  2,517
  2,695
  2,869
  3,039
  3,205
  3,368
  3,529
  3,690
  3,850
  4,012
  4,175
  4,343
  4,514
  4,691
  4,875
  5,066
  5,266
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  260
  284
  321
  357
  392
  422
  447
  463
  470
  465
  447
  416
  370
  310
  236
  147
  44
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -231
  611
  740
  900
  1,075
  1,263
  1,458
  1,658
  1,857
  2,051
  2,236
  2,408
  2,565
  2,705
  2,827
  2,931
  3,016
  3,083
  3,205
  3,368
  3,529
  3,690
  3,850
  4,012
  4,175
  4,343
  4,514
  4,691
  4,875
  5,066
  5,266
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  7
  211
  274
  348
  432
  524
  623
  729
  838
  951
  1,065
  1,179
  1,293
  1,404
  1,514
  1,621
  1,726
  1,828
  1,999
  2,226
  2,464
  2,712
  2,971
  3,241
  3,523
  3,815
  4,119
  4,436
  4,764
  5,106
  5,461
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  249
  -260
  -290
  -369
  -457
  -554
  -660
  -771
  -887
  -1,007
  -1,127
  -1,248
  -1,368
  -1,487
  -1,603
  -1,716
  -1,826
  -1,935
  -2,040
  -2,144
  -2,247
  -2,349
  -2,451
  -2,554
  -2,658
  -2,765
  -2,874
  -2,987
  -3,104
  -3,226
  -3,353
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  36
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -12
  -16
  -20
  -25
  -31
  -36
  -43
  -49
  -56
  -62
  -69
  -76
  -82
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -41
  82
  216
  363
  520
  687
  864
  1,050
  1,245
  1,449
  1,661
  1,880
  2,108
Discount rate, %
 
  7.70
  8.09
  8.49
  8.91
  9.36
  9.83
  10.32
  10.83
  11.38
  11.95
  12.54
  13.17
  13.83
  14.52
  15.25
  16.01
  16.81
  17.65
  18.53
  19.46
  20.43
  21.45
  22.52
  23.65
  24.83
  26.07
  27.38
  28.75
  30.18
  31.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -11
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -21
  -20
  -19
  -17
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -8
  -2
  3
  6
  7
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  78.6
  65.1
  55.6
  48.9
  43.8
  40.0
  37.1
  34.8
  33.0
  31.6
  30.5
  29.7
  29.1
  28.6
  28.3
  28.2
  28.1
  28.1
  28.1
  28.1
  28.1
  28.1
  28.1
  28.1
  28.1
  28.1
  28.1
  28.1
  28.1
  28.1

Exterran Corporation provides compression, production and processing products and services that support the production and transportation of oil and natural gas around the world. The Company operates through three segments: contract operations, aftermarket services, and oil and gas product sales. The contract operations segment provides natural gas compression services, production and processing equipment services, and maintenance services to meet specific customer requirements on assets owned by it. The aftermarket services segment provides a range of services to support the surface production, compression and processing needs of customers, from parts sales and normal maintenance services to full operation of a customer's owned assets. The oil and gas product sales segment provides design, engineering, manufacturing, installation and sale of natural gas compression units, and accessories and equipment used in the production, treating and processing of crude oil and natural gas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Exterran (EXTN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.4
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 5.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -42.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -52.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 62.7%
Total Debt to Equity 62.7%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -9.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.9%
Return On Total Capital -20.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.4%
Return On Equity -33.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.6%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.5%
EBITDA Margin 9.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Operating Margin -5.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -6.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0%
Net Profit Margin -22.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.1%
Effective Tax Rate -177.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 79.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

EXTN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EXTN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1029 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Exterran. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Exterran. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EXTN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 42.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.7%, whose default value for EXTN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Exterran, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Exterran.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EXTN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $195 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EXTN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.6% for Exterran.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Exterran. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EXTN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EXTN are equal to 82%.

Life of production assets of 6.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Exterran operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EXTN is equal to 13.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $557 million for Exterran - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 35.941 million for Exterran is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Exterran at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

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Financial statements of EXTN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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